Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 109: Published October 2nd, 2025
Conditions as of September 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, continued heavy rains and flooding are disrupting crop development and harvesting in many northern areas. Dry conditions are forecast for the upcoming short rains season in eastern areas.
In West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion under generally favourable conditions, except in conflict-affected areas.
In the Middle East & North Africa, land preparation is underway for the 2025/26 wheat crop, and planting will begin in October.
In Southern Africa, wheat crops continue to develop under favourable conditions, except in the Western Cape of South Africa, and planting for the 2025/26 main season will mostly begin in October.
In Central & South Asia, recent rains improved spring wheat prospects in most areas, except in Mongolia, though the rains delayed harvests in Kazakhstan.
In Southeast Asia, conditions are mostly favourable with good rains received since late August, though some flooding and harvesting delays occurred in Brunei.
In Central America & the Caribbean, erratic rains and high temperatures are expected to negatively impact final yields for large-scale producers in parts of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Harvesting of main/Meher season cereals is beginning in the north, and recent heavy rains and flooding are causing concern in many areas. In the south, yields are expected to be favourable in Uganda and most of Kenya for the main season, except in eastern Kenya which was impacted by abnormal dryness. The October to December short rains are expected to be below average across eastern areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7)
WEST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is underway along the Sahel and nearing completion in the south, and agro-climatic conditions remain mostly favourable with near-average yields expected, except in conflict-affected areas. MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Land preparation is underway for the 2025/26 wheat crop, and planting will mostly begin in October. Ongoing rice and maize cultivation remains favourable in Egypt, and rice harvesting in Iran finalized under favourable conditions.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Land preparation is underway for the 2025/26 main season cereals, and planting will mostly begin in October. Precipitation is forecast to be above average through March 2026 in central and southern areas, associated with the likely La Niña event (See Regional Outlook Pg. 11). Winter wheat crops continue to develop under favourable conditions, except in the Western Cape of South Africa.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Wheat harvesting continues in some areas of Afghanistan, with poor yields expected for rainfed crops. Spring wheat harvesting continues with rainfall improvement in most areas, except in Mongolia where dry concerns remain, and recent heavy rains disrupted harvests in northern Kazakhstan. There is a high chance of below-normal precipitation through December in most areas (See Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 14).
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Planting of dry-season rice is complete in the south, and growing conditions are generally favourable with good rains received, though with some flooding and harvesting delays in Brunei. In the north, conditions are favourable for wet-season rice despite the passage of several tropical cyclones at the end of August. Unexpected drought resulted in groundwater shortages in southeastern Nepal.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Harvesting of Primera season cereals finalized under mixed conditions, with erratic rains and high temperatures expected to result in yield declines for small and medium producers, and large producers are expecting yield declines in parts of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Planting for the Segunda/Postrera season is underway with concern in central and southern Guatemala due to early season dry and hot conditions.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, southern Peru, southern Togo, southern Benin, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, southeastern Sudan, southern Eritrea, Ethiopia, Uganda, the western Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, south-central Afghanistan, central Pakistan, central and eastern India, southern Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, northwestern Myanmar, north-central China, the eastern Republic of Korea, southern Indonesia, and southern Papua New Guinea.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over the Ohio and southern Mississippi valleys in the US, southern Colombia, Ecuador, central and eastern Peru, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern Brazil, the southern United Kingdom, Portugal, western Spain, northern and central France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, southern Poland, southern Norway, central Sweden, eastern Latvia, northern Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, southern Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Greece, Türkiye, western Georgia, northwestern and northeastern Iran, northern Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, northeastern Egypt, northern Libya, western Morocco, southwestern Mauritania, northern Senegal, southeast Mali, southwest Niger, western Gabon, southwest Angola, central Namibia, northeast Tanzania, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, southern and eastern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, eastern Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, northern Afghanistan, northwestern and southern India, Sri Lanka, southern Thailand, western Malaysia, central Indonesia, and northcentral Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 4 – 17 October 2025, issued on 26 September 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: La Niña Watch and negative Indian Ocean Dipole event
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions will likely develop during October to December 2025 (71 percent chance, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook) and may continue during December 2025 to February 2026 (54 percent chance). ENSO neutral conditions are likely thereafter.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia.
precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present and are expected to continue through November (> 77 percent chances, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts) and may persist into December (34 to 53 percent chances). Associated with negative IOD conditions are higher chances of below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa and above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region.
Global temperatures for August 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. During late August to September, heat waves occurred in China, southwestern Europe, Iran, western North America, and elsewhere. During late September to October, above-average temperatures are forecast in parts of southern, eastern, and northwestern Africa, Argentina, Australia, southern Brazil, Central America, China, Canada, northern Eurasia, southern Europe, Japan, and the United States.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is just beginning in Ethiopia (Meher season) and Yemen while crops continue to develop in Eritrea, South Sudan, and Sudan. Yield declines are expected in Yemen due to prolonged dry and hot conditions since the start of the season, as well as recent heavy rains and flooding along the coast. Recent heavy rains and subsequent flooding have also impacted unimodal areas of South Sudan, Sudan, and much of north and central Ethiopia and are causing concern for potential yield declines in these areas. Conversely, early season rainfall deficits continue to impact parts of Ethiopia and northeastern South Sudan. Elsewhere, vegetation conditions remain favourable in parts of western Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan, and Eritrea.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in Kenya and Uganda, with generally favourable outcomes, except in the bimodal minor producing east of Kenya where drier than normal conditions resulted in poor yield outcomes. Land preparation and planting of second season cereals is underway in Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and northern bimodal regions of the United Republic of Tanzania, and the rains have yet to fully establish.
Early-season rainfall deficits in June and July were followed by enhanced August precipitation that improved soil moisture deficits and vegetation conditions across much of the north, including parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan, but also resulted in flooding and landslides. Continued heavy rains through September worsened flooding along the Blue Nile in eastern Sudan and the Sudd wetlands in northern South Sudan and heightened flood risks in central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti. In unimodal regions in the western half of Kenya and northern Uganda, above-average precipitation outcomes for the March to November long rains season have so far been conducive for favourable crop development. The October to December short rains are expected to be below average across eastern areas of the region, driven by the likely La Niña and current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, main season millet and sorghum crops continue to develop for harvest from November, and a combination of persistent conflict and flood-induced losses is expected to constrain yields. Overall rainfall for the June to September season has been significantly above average in west and northern areas of the country. In central, south, and eastern areas, an initial rainfall delay this season was followed by precipitation improvements, bringing amounts close to average in August and September. However, significant rains received in late July and the following weeks in August resulted in flooding across many areas, including parts of North Darfur, Central Darfur, and South Darfur states in the west as well as Sennar, Gedaref, Kassala, and River Nile states in the east (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). As of late September, flooding continues along the Blue Nile and Atbara rivers located in the east. Vegetation conditions reflect the rainfall pattern and are generally favourable in the west and north. Conversely, in the east, particularly in southeastern Gedaref, White Nile, and Sennar states, a late start and recent high precipitation amounts are resulting in low vegetation performance. Conditions in southern Kordofan are mixed, and localized areas of South Darfur are affected by drought. In north and central unimodal areas of South Sudan, first season cereals continue to develop under mixed conditions, and harvesting will begin in October. Below-average rainfall amounts received at the beginning of the season in May and June negatively impacted vegetation conditions but were followed by a shift to heavy precipitation in July and August, which improved vegetation and will likely benefit yields. However, the rains were insufficient to provide full recovery to crops in some areas of Upper Nile and Jonglei which had substantial early-season deficits. The heavy rains also exacerbated widespread flooding of the Nile River and tributaries. Flooding from late July impacted many areas, including Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile states located in the northeast of the country, with Unity and Jonglei accounting for the majority of people impacted (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). Additionally, the heavy rains and above-average lake water levels from upstream areas in Uganda have resulted in a significant expansion of inundated areas that have nearly doubled between early August and early September. Farmlands and pasture have been inundated, devastating livestock and agro-pastoral livelihoods. Inundation continued to increase in the Sudd wetlands and northern areas through late September, especially the Sobet-Akobo Pibor catchment. Cumulative July to November rainfall is forecast to be above average, with peak impacts expected between September and October, and overall flooding is projected to be near or above 2024 levels. However, crop losses are expected to be localized as most were already mature and thus less vulnerable to flood damage when the floods occurred from July onwards. Production is expected to be near-average at the national level despite shortfalls in regions where crops were not able to fully recover. The flooding comes only a few months after renewed conflicts since February 2025, which have resulted in widespread displacements and disruptions to agricultural activities in some areas and are expected to exacerbate food insecurity. Clashes and cattle raids across Jonglei, Upper Nile, Greater Equatoria, and Warrap states from late August to mid-September have displaced populations and disrupted livelihoods and trade. Furthermore, in southern bimodal areas, planting of second season maize and sorghum crops continues, and there is emerging concern as below-average rainfall since mid-April has led to abnormal dryness across the southwest. In Ethiopia, harvesting of Meher season cereals is just beginning, and there is concern in most areas due to erratic rains and flooding impacts. Antecedent dry conditions from a poor March to May season were followed by delayed and erratic rains at the beginning of the current season in June and July, and uneven spatial coverage led to poor vegetation conditions in eastern areas, including east and western Hararghie. Conversely, the country experienced a shift to heavy rains, unusual hailstorms, and subsequent flooding and landslides from late July through September, saturating the ground and maintaining high flood risks in central and northern areas. The excessive rains and hail destroyed mature maize, sorghum, and teff crops in some northeast, east, and central localities, indicating a significant yield reduction in affected regions. Overall, the June to September Kiremt rains have been generally near to above average, except in some southern Kiremt receiving areas where rainfall deficits were present as of early September (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Eritrea, main season cereals continue to develop and are expected to be harvested from November. The late June to September Kiremt rainy season began with slightly below-average amounts in July, followed by substantial improvement in August that benefited crop development. However, continued heavy rains through September resulted in saturated soils. In Yemen, prolonged dry and hot conditions since the start of the March to May first rainy season negatively impacted plantings and constrained yields, particularly in Ibb, Lahij, Taizz, Al Dhale’e, Dhamar, Marib, Hadramout, and Amran governorates. The rains were significantly delayed and below average in the main rainfed producing regions of Amran, Hajjah, Marib, and Sana’a located in the west of the country. Conversely, for the July through September second rainy season, abundant rains received in August improved soil moisture conditions but were too late for adequate crop recovery and resulted in flooding and damage to irrigation systems, particularly along the coastal strip and western highlands. Additionally, protracted conflict continues to increase the cost of inputs and constrain farmers’ access to fuel, inputs, and pesticides. Production of the 2025 cereal crops is forecast to be 400,000 tonnes and 15 percent below average.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, harvesting of Gu season maize and sorghum crops finalized in August, with generally poor yields expected due to erratic rains and abnormally dry weather. In the north, poor rainfall outcomes and drought negatively impacted the Gu cropping season, while in some central and southern areas, protracted conflict and flooding disrupted crop production. However, in southern areas, Gu season harvests are above both the five-year and long-term average, possibly due to increased planted area or comparatively better rainfall outcomes. Land preparation for Deyr season maize and sorghum is underway, and planting will begin in October, though delayed October rains could hinder crop emergence (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In bimodal and marginal producing areas in the eastern half of Kenya, harvesting of long rains maize finalized in August under mixed conditions. Overall production in these areas is expected to be 40 to 75 percent below average due to poor temporal distribution of the March to May long rains, with the largest deficits in Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, and Tharaka Nithi counties. This marks the third year in a row with below-average harvests for marginal producing areas. Conversely, production outcomes were above average in the marginal coastal counties of Kilifi and Kwale due to adequate temporal rainfall distribution. In unimodal and major producing regions in the western half of the country, sorghum harvesting finalized in September, while planting and development of other long rains cereals continue, and overall conditions remain favourable. In Uganda, harvesting of first season cereals is complete or nearing completion, while planting and development of second season cereals continue, and overall conditions remain favourable. However, below-average rainfall since mid-April has led to abnormal dryness in the northwest. In Burundi, harvesting of Season B rice finalized in August under favourable conditions. Despite localized below-average rainfall received in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands, a combination of good rains received in most areas from February to June for the long rains season as well as subsidy provisions for seeds, fertilizer, and technical assistance supported near-average cereal production. In Burundi and Rwanda, planting of Season A crops is just beginning, and the rains have yet to fully establish. In Burundi, forecast La Niña conditions are expected to result in below-average rainfall through December. The dry conditions are expected to particularly affect the semi-arid Northern and Eastern Lowlands, where likely higher than normal temperatures will exacerbate water shortages. In northern bimodal regions of the United Republic of Tanzania, planting of Vuli season maize and sorghum is just beginning with some concern due to delayed rainfall onset. Elsewhere, planting will begin in October.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Forecast of La Niña and Negative IOD-induced dry conditions in eastern East Africa through December
During recent weeks, rainfall was above average across central Sudan, northern and central Ethiopia, as well as areas of eastern South Sudan, northeastern Uganda and northwestern Somalia. In parts of western, central, and eastern Sudan, rainfall totals were 150 to 300 percent of average.
Moderate rainfall deficits were observed across South Sudan, Uganda, localized areas of western, central and southern Ethiopia, and southern portions of Sudan. In many of these regions, rainfall deficits are expected to improve with forecast above-average rains in late September to early October (Figure 1 middle-right).
Overall, the June-to-September 2025 seasonal rains have been mixed across the region and marked with poor temporal distribution (Figure 1 left). Early season rainfall deficits were a major concern as many areas received below-average rains in June and July, notably over northern South Sudan. However, favorable rains in August and September reduced the deficits and the season is expected to end with to above-average precipitation outcomes.
Flooding concerns will continue in Sudan, South Sudan and northern Ethiopia in October. In Tarsin village located in western Sudan, days of heavy rains triggered a deadly landslide in early September, leading to the death of more than a thousand people (Relief Web). In South Sudan, floodwaters have submerged farmlands, and impacted an estimated 592,686 people mostly in Jonglei and Unity states, where over 87 percent of the population are affected (UN OCHA). In Ethiopia, heavy rains, flooding, and hailstorms have damaged about 143 hectares of farmland in Tigray and approximately 6,000 hectares in Amhara.
In eastern East Africa, there are concerns for a drier-than-average October to December (OND) 2025 season. The CHIRPS-GEFS, SubC and ECMWF forecasts indicate below-average rains during late September to early-late October (Figure 1 middle-right and right). In southeastern Ethiopia and Somalia, short rains/Deyr season rains typically peak in October. The season is typically short and a delayed onset is likely to impact crop yields and pasture development.
The NMME, ICPAC, C3S and WMO seasonal forecasts all predict increased chances of below-normal OND 2025 rainfall in eastern Kenya, Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and northern and eastern Tanzania (Figure 1 middle-left). This is associated with present negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions and forecast La Niña and negative IOD conditions in October to December. La Niña and negative IOD conditions tend to suppress OND rains in the eastern Horn of Africa and Tanzania. During OND, temperatures are forecast to be higher than normal in eastern and southern areas of East Africa.
Elevated chances of a drier and hotter-than-average OND 2025 season pose risks for millions in East Africa who depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism for food security and livelihood. Below-average NDVI observations in July, August and September indicate that natural vegetation has dried out earlier than normal. In eastern East Africa, above-normal JJAS temperatures led to the rapid deterioration of pasture and rangelands. If poor pasture growing conditions occur during OND 2025, it could mean a long period before relief during the next rainy season. Models currently indicate this will be a relatively short-duration La Niña event, with highest odds of La Niña during OND 2025. However, there have been cases of back-to-back OND and March to May rainfall season impacts in the eastern Horn from prolonged La Niña-like SST gradient conditions. Close monitoring of La Niña development and Pacific sea surface temperature forecasts is recommended.
Figure 1. A seasonal rainfall anomaly outlook, and 3-month, 15-day, and 30-day rainfall forecast anomalies
Left: CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average (1981-2024). This shows the percent of average precipitation for June 1st to September 30th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for September 1st to September 20th and a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for September 21st to September 30th. Middle-left: WMO multimodel ensemble probability forecast for October to December 2025. Middle-right: CHIRPS-GEFS forecast precipitation anomaly for September 25th - October 9th. Right: A 30-day multimodel ensemble forecast anomaly for September 25th to October 24th precipitation, from six Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and North and Adamaoua regions in Cameroon while planting and development continue in Guinea and the Central African Republic. Additionally, planting and development of second season cereals is underway in Côte d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, Nigeria, and northern Cameroon. Along the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad while crops continue to develop in Gambia and Mauritania.
Throughout West Africa, agro-climatic conditions remain generally favourable with near-average yields expected in most areas. However, some localized areas continue to be affected by below-average rains, including eastern Mauritania, southern and western Mali, and northwestern Niger, while others continue to experience heavy rains and flooding. Since July, sustained moderate to heavy rainfall has caused flooding along the Logone and Chari Rivers in Chad, with the flooding also expanding into northern Cameroon. Additional flooding has been observed in northeastern Ghana, parts of northern Togo and Benin, and northern Niger. These conditions are displacing communities and threatening standing crops, putting the current agricultural season at risk. According to the Advanced Disaster Analysis and Mapping report, an estimated 371,911 hectares of cropland in Mali and 193,767 hectares in Chad are flooded. Additionally, heavy rainfall in recent weeks has triggered flooding across several countries. Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, western Guinea-Conakry, Senegal, Gambia, southwestern Mauritania, and Nigeria have all been affected, and elevated rainfall has also raised flood risks in southwestern Niger, northern Burkina Faso, and central Mali.
Additionally, yields are expected to remain below pre-conflict levels in central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northeastern Nigeria, the Lac region in Chad, the Far North and southwestern regions in Cameroon, and the Central African Republic, and socio-economic issues relating to inter-communal violence continue in northwestern Nigeria.
Regarding desert locust outbreaks, during August 2025, adult and hopper groups continued to appear in Mauritania, with breeding observed. Isolated adults were also found in Chad. Groups may appear in the Sahel in September, requiring control efforts. Forecasts suggest that there is still a possibility that new adult groups may appear in Mauritania, and they may also emerge in Mali, Niger, and Chad. Summer breeding will increase in Chad, Niger, Mali, and Mauritania.
According to the mid-September Regional Mechanism for the Prevention and Management of Food Crises (PREGEC), cereal production forecasts for the 2025/26 agropastoral campaign in West Africa and the Sahel range from 78 to 88 million metric tons. This would represent a 1 percent increase from last year and a 2 percent increase compared to the five-year average for the lower estimate. For the higher estimate, assuming a favourable end to the season, aggregate cereal production could increase by 14 percent compared to the previous season and by 16 percent compared to the five-year average.
In Cabo Verde, maize planting took place between July and August. The August to October rainy season had an erratic start, with excessive rains from early to mid-August followed by dry conditions through the end of August. The dry conditions extended through the first dekad of September and were followed by mixed rainfall outcomes in the second dekad. Planting and crop germination were affected by the dry conditions, though current growing conditions are generally favourable. However, forecast below-average amounts through October could negatively impact maize yields, which are virtually the only cereal grown in the country. In Sierra Leone, heavy rainfall and overflowing riverbanks resulted in flash floods between August 31 and September 5 in Bonthe, Kenema, Bo, Moyamba, Kono, Falaba, and Koinadugu districts, and 2,500 hectares of farmland have been submerged. In Nigeria, flooding has caused widespread damage across several areas in the country, including along the country’s four major rivers (Niger, Benue, Sokoto, and Komadugu). An estimated 48,447 hectares of farmland in localized areas have been affected by the floods as of September 22. In central and southern bimodal areas of Cameroon, heavy August rains may have negatively impacted standing maize crops. Additionally, persistent conflict in the Northwest and Southwest regions continues to negatively impact farmers’ access to fields and inputs. In the Central African Republic, drier than normal conditions received in most areas through September may negatively impact yields, and ongoing conflict continues to negatively impact agricultural activities. In Mauritania, a dry spell in most regions in late July was followed by near to above-average amounts through August, except in Hodh Ech Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi located in the southeast where deficits continued. In September, near to above-average rainfall amounts in the first dekad were followed by a shift to dry spells in the second dekad. However, vegetation conditions are adequate in most areas as of mid-September. Additionally, government support is expected to benefit cereal production this year. For irrigated rice, this includes updates to the irrigation system, subsidized agro-chemicals, and improved pest control efforts. For rainfed cereals, this includes updates to dam and dike systems as well as the provision of crop seeds, fencing, and access to tractors and ploughing equipment.
Middle East & North Africa
Across the Middle East and North Africa, wheat harvesting finalized in July, and planting for the 2025/26 season will commence in October. In Egypt, summer-planted maize and rice crops are mostly in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and planting of secondary Nili season (Nile flood) rice crops continues. Overall conditions remain favourable, with irrigation supporting stable growth. In Lebanon, 2025 cereal production is estimated to be 90,000 tonnes and 50 percent below average due to conflict disruptions, including household displacement and limited land access during the planting season, particularly in the south, which significantly reduced the planted area. Additionally, dry and hot weather in combination with high input costs negatively affected crop yields. Cumulative rains from December 2024 through February 2025 were less than half of normal in the key producing Bekaa and Baalbek‑Hermel governments located in the east. In Syria, 2025 production is estimated to be 1.2 million tonnes and 60 percent below average due to a combination of severe drought, high temperatures, and ongoing conflict. Cumulative November 2024 to March 2025 rains were less than half of average and the lowest recorded in the last ten years. Conflict disruptions between November and December 2024 negatively impacted field access during the planting period, and high production costs contributed to a reduced planted area. In Iraq, there was a ban on rice cultivation this year in an effort to conserve water for other uses. Similar bans have occurred in previous years with limited water supply, including in 2018, 2022, and 2023. In Iran, rice harvesting finalized in September, and overall production is expected to be average but less than the previous year’s bumper crop due to comparatively drier weather outcomes this year. Additionally, the government recently lifted the four-month rice import ban to stabilize domestic prices, which has allowed additional volumes to enter the market. Land preparation for the 2025/26 wheat season is underway, and planting will begin in September.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across Southern Africa, land preparation for the 2025/26 main season cereals is underway, and planting will mostly begin in October. Above-normal rainfall is forecast in central and southern areas for the start of the season in October and through March 2026, with a likely positive impact on root zone soil moisture. The wet conditions are associated with the likely La Niña event, which typically supports above-average maize yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa. Conversely, drier than normal conditions are expected along the north (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 11).
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, sorghum harvesting finalized in the north, while planting and development of other main season cereals continue elsewhere in the country. Overall growing conditions remain favourable with improved rainfall in late September, except in the west where erratic rains and increased instability may negatively impact final yields. Additionally, below-average rainfall since mid-April is resulting in abnormal dryness in the northeast, though current growing conditions remain favourable.
Wheat harvesting is underway in Zimbabwe while crops continue to develop in Zambia, South Africa, and Lesotho, and overall conditions remain favourable, except in the Western Cape of South Africa. In Zambia, production prospects have increased compared to initial estimates, but the reduced planted area, ongoing electrical challenges, and reduced water availability may result in some production declines. In the summer rainfall region of South Africa, widespread above-normal rainfall received in February to April during late summer as well as recent rains have supported soil moisture and irrigation water availability, and conditions vary from favourable in most areas to exceptional in Free State and North West. Over the winter rainfall region, where most of the dryland production occurs, relatively dry conditions since August had a negative impact during the second half of the growing season, and conditions have been downgraded to poor in the Western Cape.
Regional Outlook: Elevated chances of above-normal October 2025 to March 2026 rainfall in central and southern areas
Throughout the October 2025 to March 2026 season, normal to above-normal rainfall is anticipated in most central and southern areas, while northern areas will more likely receive normal to below-normal rainfall. To begin the season, above-normal rainfall is forecast during late September to late October in north and central-eastern South Africa, Lesotho, eSwatini, southern Botswana, western Zimbabwe and southeastern DRC (Figure 1-left). Below-average rainfall is forecast in northern Angola, central and eastern Zambia, and northeastern Madagascar.
A mainly optimistic outlook for normal to above-normal seasonal rains in central and southern areas is indicated by the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-31). Figure 1 (middle images) shows SARCOF-31 consensus outlooks for October to December 2025 and January to March 2026. NMME, C3S, and WMO multi-model ensemble probabilistic forecasts from September indicate a similar regional pattern, and that there are 40 to 50 percent chances of above-normal rainfall during the key months of December to February (DJF) in parts of Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, South Africa, and southern Madagascar.
These rainfall outlooks reflect anticipated La Niña conditions, which are forecast to develop during October to December 2025 (71 percent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook) and may continue into early 2026 (a 54 percent chance for DJF). While the La Niña may be a weak-strength event, such conditions tend to strongly decrease the odds of below-normal maize yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa, and indicate above-average yields for the 2025-2026 season, according to an Extended Outlook analysis of historical yield data and a forecast for DJF 2025-2026 ENSO conditions. Consistent with that outlook, the NASA soil moisture forecast for January 2026 indicates above-normal root-zone moisture in the maize triangle region in South Africa (50 to 80 percent chances) as well as in other central and southeastern areas (Figure 1-right).
Figure 1. A 30-day rainfall anomaly forecast, 3-month SARCOF-31 rainfall outlooks for the 2025/2026 season, and a NASA soil moisture forecast for January 2026.
Left: A 30-day multimodel ensemble probability forecast for September 25th to October 24th precipitation, from six Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models. Middle-left and middle-right: Rainfall forecasts for October to December 2025 and January to March 2026, from the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-31), which convened from September 8th to 11th, 2025. The SARCOF-31 outlook for the 2025/2026 rainfall season was produced by climate experts at the SADC National Meteorological and/or Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC), using model forecasts and a consensus procedure. Right: Probabilistic forecast for January 2026 root zone soil moisture tercile, from the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System’s FLDAS forecast. The FLDAS forecast uses CHIRPS and MERRA-2 reanalysis data through August 2025 and forecasted meteorological conditions for September 2025 to January 2026 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the GEOSv2 model.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Harvesting for the 2024/25 winter wheat season finalized last month under generally favourable conditions, except along the northern rainfed belt and other rainfed areas in Afghanistan and throughout Uzbekistan where a mix of dry and hot conditions degraded yields. Land preparation for 2025/26 winter wheat crops is underway in some countries, and planting will commence in October. There are high chances of below-normal precipitation from October through December, which could reduce the planted area of winter wheat for the upcoming season. Recent La Niña events have had large negative impacts on both winter and spring wheat outcomes (See Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 14).
In Afghanistan, wheat harvesting will continue in some areas through mid-October, and conditions are poor for rainfed crops due to low rainfall amounts and high temperatures throughout the season. Additionally, harvesting of spring wheat is underway in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia, and conditions have been upgraded to favourable in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan due to recent rainfall improvements. However, concern remains across Mongolia due to ongoing dry conditions. Conversely, there is emerging concern across northern Kazakhstan as recent persistent rains delayed harvesting work and led to grain shedding and reduced quality.
Across northern Kazakhstan, recent persistent rains have delayed harvesting work for spring wheat, leading to grain shedding and reduced quality. Reduced domestic supply has recently driven up prices, as competition for local grain has intensified amid limited access to imports. As of September 18, 8.4 million hectares, representing about half of the total grain area, had been harvested. Similarly, in 2023, extreme rainfall received in September was expected to reduce the quantity and quality of the wheat harvest in the north. However, by October, the grain quality was not expected to reduce significantly, and yields were expected to be 39 percent above the five-year average as adequate water supply and moderate temperatures supported crops during the flowering and grain filling stages. In Afghanistan, wheat harvesting is mostly complete but may continue into early October in some Central Highlands and higher elevations of northeastern provinces. This year, low rainfall amounts and high temperatures throughout the season negatively affected yields for rainfed crops along the rainfed belt in the north and northeast as well as some central areas. Production amounts are expected to be below average due to poor outcomes for the rainfed crops. Conversely, farmers in irrigated areas were able to supplement water deficits with groundwater use, and yields at the national level are expected to be near average. Additionally, harvesting of second season maize and rice is just beginning, and concern remains due to significantly below-average rainfall received during the wet season. Eastern areas that border Pakistan received good precipitation and localized flash flooding in September, though precipitation is expected to return to below-average amounts from October (See Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 14). The second season crops will be harvested in October, and then farmers will begin preparing the land for the upcoming 2025/26 winter wheat season. Additionally, a magnitude 6 earthquake on August 31 caused significant damage across eastern areas, particularly in Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, with impacts extending to Laghman, Nuristan, and Panjshir. The earthquake had a significant impact on farmlands, irrigation systems, food security, and livelihoods. Approximately 500 hectares of farmland, including rice, vegetables, maize, orchards, and beans, have been affected. Additionally, livestock, which is crucial to community livelihoods, has suffered substantial losses, with reports indicating that between 1,000 and 1,500 animals have been lost. Furthermore, the country faces a risk of a seventh consecutive year of below-average snow water volume, which would increase reliance on already over-extracted groundwater resources (See Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 14). In Pakistan, harvesting of main season maize is underway while Kharif (summer) season rice continues to develop for harvest from October. Growing conditions remain mostly favourable, except in large areas of Punjab and other localized regions impacted by widespread flooding since late June. A combination of severe monsoon rains since late June, cloudbursts, and dam overflows led to the worst flooding in decades, resulting in mass displacement, infrastructure damage, and widespread agricultural losses, particularly in the main producing Punjab province. This year’s Kharif season began with above-average rice planting in June due to high domestic prices, but heavy rains and floods in late June and August devastated crop development in the Chenab and Sutlej river basins, requiring replanting. Continued flooding through late August and early September impacted crops during their critical reproductive stages, causing rice losses alongside potential damage to maize and other crops in the field at the time of the flooding. Satellite imagery indicates around 220,000 hectares of rice were flooded between August and mid-September, and while some recovery was observed by mid-September, overall seasonal damage is likely greater due to earlier flooding that prevented full replanting (See Crop Monitor Special Report Pakistan Flood Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security). The Punjab Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) recently confirmed that about 2.5 million acres of farmland were damaged in Punjab province. The Punjab government also announced that 20,000 rupees per acre will be given to farmers who lost their crops. Land preparation for Rabi season wheat is underway, and planting will begin in October. As of September 19, the Indus, Jhelum, and Ravi rivers returned to near typical flow levels, and displaced communities are returning home. However, many are returning to homes, farmland, and infrastructure that is damaged or covered in silt. The prior flood impacts raise concerns for the upcoming Rabi wheat season due to seed losses and damage to irrigation infrastructure. The monsoon season has now ended, and most areas of the country are expected to receive below-normal rains for the start of the Rabi wheat season in October and November. Despite currently adequate soil moisture amounts due to the recent rains and standing water, the forecast low precipitation in combination with likely higher than normal temperatures may result in water stress in the early stages of crop development, particularly in rainfed areas, as well as increased groundwater extraction for irrigated areas. In Mongolia, dry conditions this season continue to cause concern for yield prospects. However, wheat production in 2025 is estimated at an average level.
Seasonal Forecast Alert: Elevated chances of below-average precipitation, following six years of poor snow conditions in Afghanistan
Below-normal precipitation is anticipated in Southern and Central Asia from late 2025 to early 2026.
There are 40 to 60 percent chances of below-normal October 2025 to February 2026 precipitation, according to the WMO forecast (Figure 1-left). This is consistent with the observed tendency for drier-than-normal conditions in this region during La Niña events. La Niña conditions are forecast during October to December 2025 (71 percent chance, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook) and these may continue during December 2025 to February 2026 (54 percent chance). During October to November 2025, negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions could also contribute to a dry fall season. Current model forecasts generally show higher confidence in below-normal October to December 2025 precipitation and greater uncertainty beyond this period.
A dry fall could lead to a reduction in area planted with winter wheat— and a greater reliance on the spring season to meet food and income needs. Prolonged dry conditions lasting into fall would negatively impact livelihoods that depend on rangeland and surface water resources. Widespread below-average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observations indicate pasture resources have been in shorter supply than usual.
If winter precipitation is impacted, severe agricultural and hydrologic drought conditions would continue in Afghanistan. Afghanistan could experience a 7th year in a row of below-average snow water volume (Figure 1-right). Snow Water Equivalent has been below average every year since 2020. Last year, below-average precipitation across Southern Asia during October 2024 to March 2025 led to a below-average SWE at its annual peak, then near-record low precipitation and high temperatures led to rapid and early springtime snow reductions. The 2025 snow season ended with the lowest SWE values of the past 25 years.
Another year of low precipitation would constrain rainfed agriculture and snow-fed water resources like rivers and streams that are used in irrigated agriculture later in the year. Below-average precipitation would continue to reduce annual groundwater recharge and would lead to even higher demand for groundwater, which has been extracted at increasing rates during recent below-average precipitation years as a convenient substitute for surface water. Close monitoring of season progress and La Niña development is recommended, due to negative impacts that recent La Niñas have had on winter wheat and spring crops in the region.
Figure 1. A 5-month probabilistic precipitation forecast and a retrospective 6-year look at regional average snow water equivalent.
Left: Probabilistic forecast for October 2025 to February 2026 precipitation, based on September initial conditions. From the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Right: Regional average cumulative Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), shown for October 2024 to September 2025, and the previous five years. Shaded areas and the dotted line show the historical mean and lowest and highest values between 2001 and 2025. The darker shaded areas and solid black line show the same but for 2019/2020 to 2024/2025. From NASA, using SWE estimates from the FLDAS Central Asia model.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, planting of dry-season rice is complete, and the total planted area is estimated to have increased from the last season. Growing conditions are generally favourable, with beneficial rains received in late August to early September. Harvesting is underway, and yields are expected to be similar to the last season. However, heavier than normal rainfall has resulted in some flooding and harvesting delays in Brunei. In Malaysia, planting of wet-season rice has begun under favourable weather conditions. In northern Southeast Asia, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion, and the total planted area is expected to be near to slightly below the previous wet season. Crops are mostly in the panicle forming to harvesting stage, and growing conditions are favourable with adequate rainfall and sufficient sunlight. While several tropical cyclones at the end of August brought heavy rainfall and flooding to some countries, the extent of the damage was minor. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions remain mostly favourable, except in Madhesh Province located in southeastern Nepal, which experienced an unexpected drought and subsequent irrigation water shortage.
In Indonesia, planting of dry-season rice is mostly complete with a total area of 5.0 million hectares, which is 8.2 percent higher than the previous year. Growing conditions are favourable with good rains received in late August to early September. September is also the third month of dry-season rice harvesting, which has reached 3.1 million hectares with good yields expected. While rainfall intensity increased in some areas in early September, no significant damage has been reported. In Malaysia, harvesting of dry-season rice reached about 92 percent of cultivated areas. Weather conditions have been generally favourable, and production is expected to be similar to the previous year. Planting of wet-season rice has reached 16,000 hectares and 4.5 percent of the planned amount, mainly in the granary areas. In earlier planted fields, most crops are at the young panicle forming stage, supported by consistent irrigation, adequate rains, and sufficient sunlight. Growing conditions are favourable with stable yield prospects. However, forecast below-average precipitation amounts between September and November across most of Peninsular Malaysia, where about 80 percent of the wet-season crop is grown, could negatively affect late plantings and yields of earlier planted crops. In Brunei, harvesting of dry-season rice is 30 percent complete with a favourable yield of 3.89 metric tons per hectare due to conducive dry weather during the harvesting period. However, heavier than normal rainfall has resulted in some flooding and harvesting delays. Additionally, field preparation is underway for wet-season rice.
In the Philippines, wet-season rice planted from April to May is now fully harvested, and the yield is higher than the previous year due to favourable weather and low incidence of pests and diseases. Additionally, wet-season rice planted from July to August is in the tillering to panicle forming stages under favourable growing conditions. Several developing weather systems, including a low pressure area, the southwest monsoon, and a tropical cyclone, may impact the country and bring above-normal rainfall to parts of Luzon. In Thailand, planted area of wet-season rice is expected to decline due to a decrease in the market price. Crops are now in the young panicle forming stage under mostly favourable conditions. However, very heavy rains and strong winds in late August impacted the Northern and upper Northeastern region. Persistent rains combined with the passage of tropical storms Kajiki and Nongfa resulted in flooding in localized areas, affecting around 14,000 hectares of rice fields, though the damage assessment is still ongoing. Elsewhere, growing conditions are supported by adequate rains and sunlight, and both rice yields and total production are expected to increase compared to the previous season. In northern Viet Nam, wet-season rice is in the young panicle forming to grain filling stages, with an area of 1.15 million hectares. Yield is expected to increase slightly as good weather and adequate irrigation systems are supporting favourable growing conditions. In late August, Tropical Cyclone Kajiki affected 105,000 hectares of rice, mainly newly planted summer-autumn rice. However, the affected area was promptly drained and replanted, and crops are now developing favourably. In the south, harvesting of summer-autumn rice is underway, and yields are similar to last year. Additionally, the other wet-season (autumn-winter and seasonal) rice is in the grain filling to harvesting stages. In lowland areas of Laos, the planted area of wet-season rice has reached 742,000 hectares, which is short of the 766,000 hectares goal due to heavy rainfall received from tropical cyclone WHIPHA in July. Crops are now in the young panicle forming to grain filling stages, and weather conditions and irrigation water supply have been favourable for paddy cultivation, supported by sufficient natural water and solar radiation levels. In upland areas, planted area has reached 75,000 hectares, and growing conditions are favourable. However, some localized areas have been affected by both landslides and pest outbreaks. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion with 5.6 million hectares, accounting for 93 percent of the national plan of 6.04 million hectares. Planting progress is slightly faster than last year due to conducive weather outcomes, and most crops are now in the panicle forming to grain filling stages under favourable growing conditions. An on time onset of the June to October monsoon season was followed by average to above-average rainfall amounts through mid-August across the main rice-producing southern provinces, supporting crop establishment and early development. Although monsoon floods impacted several areas, they did not have a significant negative impact on rice growth. In Cambodia, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion and has reached 3.1 million hectares, representing a 6 percent increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, harvesting of earlier planted wet-season rice is underway and has reached 26 percent of the cultivated area with a current favourable yield of 3.9 tons per hectare. Growing conditions are mostly favourable, and final production is expected to increase slightly from the previous year despite minor flood damage.
In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season maize (10 percent of annual maize output) and Yala season rice (35 to 40 percent of annual rice output) continues under favourable conditions and will finalize in October. In Nepal, maize harvesting finalized in September, while main season rice crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and conditions are mostly favourable, except in Madhesh Province located in the southeast, which experienced an unexpected drought and groundwater depletion. Maize production is forecast at a slightly below average level of 3 million tonnes as drier than normal conditions negatively impacted planted area and yield, and flooding and landslides resulted in localized crop losses in the north. Total paddy production in 2025 is expected to be below average at 5.4 million tonnes as rainfall deficits this season, particularly in the main producing Madesh Province, resulted in a reduction of plantings. In Bangladesh, planting of both Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice output) and main season sorghum continues under favourable conditions, and harvesting is expected to begin in November. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize harvesting finalized in September, while rice harvesting is just beginning. Vegetation conditions remain favourable with near-average yields expected. However, satellite imagery shows that vegetation conditions for 2025 are slightly worse than 2024, with growth appearing similar to last year but trending downward.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Primera season maize end of season (EOS) conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, harvesting of Primera season cereals finalized in September across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. This season, late and erratic rains, including prolonged dry periods and instances of short-lived intense rains, as well as hot temperatures, impacted many areas across Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The conditions are expected to result in yield declines for small and medium producers, and small-scale farmers are expected to lose between 75 and 100 percent of their production amounts, which will increase household needs for the lean season. Large-scale farmers are also expecting poor outcomes in central and northern Guatemala, southern Honduras, and western Nicaragua. Farmers in these areas lacked adequate irrigation water availability, which led to significant problems during the phenology stage. Additionally, the erratic rains and higher temperatures increased pest and disease pressure, requiring farmers to use more fertilizer and pesticides and raising production costs. While overall production for large farmers is expected to be only slightly below average, higher production costs are likely to result in elevated market prices, which small and medium producers will depend on for their food needs. Elsewhere, the rains were adequate for crop development, and yields for large-scale farmers are expected to be near average in southern Guatemala, El Salvador, northern Honduras, and eastern Nicaragua.
Additionally, planting of Segunda/Postrera season cereals is just beginning in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, and the start of season conditions are generally favourable, except in central and southern Guatemala, where dry and hot conditions delayed planting and could disrupt crop development. However, some subsistence farmers may forgo the Postrera bean season following poor Primera outcomes, and some large-scale farmers may also reduce production due to rising costs. Beans are more susceptible to irregular weather conditions, fungal diseases, and pests, and cultivation has been declining in recent years in some regions.
In El Salvador, despite severe water deficits observed in central and northern areas at the start of the harvesting stage, less than 10 percent of total cropland has been affected, with only marginal losses. Overall yields are expected to be favourable due to adequate rainfall distribution this season. In Guatemala, late and erratic rainfall onset in combination with high temperatures resulted in planting delays of 20 to 40 days for the Primera season. Below average and unevenly distributed rains continued to impact crops once they were planted, and high temperatures and a longer than normal canícula dry spell period exacerbated the loss of soil moisture and contributed to an increase in pests and diseases. Some areas of the Dry Corridor experienced up to 17 days without rain since mid-July, resulting in crop stress and wilting in localized areas. Subsistence farmers who depend on rainfed agriculture were particularly affected. Continued erratic precipitation and high temperatures also delayed the start of the harvest. Yield declines are expected in the north, centre, and east while generally favourable outcomes are expected in the south, except in localized areas of Quetzaltenango where vegetation conditions were poor for the end of the season. Additionally, there is concern for the start of the Segunda/Postrera season in parts of the centre and south as recent erratic rainfall, including poor rains in September, and hot temperatures delayed planting operations and could cause delays in crop establishment. In Honduras, vegetation conditions are poor in large areas across Cortés, Comayagua, and Santa Barbara departments located in the northwest of the country as dry conditions in May resulted in delayed onset of the Primera cycle and subsequent crop losses. Conditions are currently favourable for the start of the Segunda/Postrera season, though below-average precipitation may curb crop development.
In Haiti, harvesting of main season rice continues under favourable conditions and will finalize in October. Été season maize and beans are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions, though marginal losses were reported due to mixed precipitation outcomes, including periods with drier and hotter than normal conditions, particularly in the south. Conversely, above-average rains were received from late August through late September, offsetting August deficits, and despite above-average temperatures, soil moisture and irrigation reservoir levels remain adequate for normal crop development. However, heavy rains resulted in flooding across most communes of the Nord-Ouest department from September 16 to 17 and resulted in extensive inundation and infrastructure damage across Port-de-Paix and Bassin-Bleu. Vegetation conditions are currently above average in most areas, except in localized parts of the Sud and Artibonite departments which received erratic July to September precipitation. Rainfall totals are expected to reduce during the first week of October, though it is not expected to negatively affect crop development. Additionally, protracted violence continues to proliferate displacements and disruptions to agricultural production. In Cuba, rice harvesting is underway while maize crops continue to develop for harvesting from October, and overall growing conditions remain favourable with generally good rains received in August and September.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published October 2nd, 2025.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.