Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 112: Published February 5th, 2026
Conditions as of January 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, erratic rains and flooding negatively impacted harvests in parts of the north, while exceptionally dry OND 2025 rains in the eastern Horn resulted in poor to failure outcomes in many areas.
In West Africa, harvesting of both main and second season cereals finalized under favourable conditions, except in Cape Verde and in conflict-affected areas.
In the Middle East & North Africa, delayed rainfall onset disrupted planting activities in many areas, though recent enhanced rains have improved wheat development.
In Southern Africa, above-average rains across central and southern areas have generally benefitted crops, except in some regions that experienced flooding impacts.
In Central & South Asia, winter wheat continues to develop under favourable conditions, and rainfall improvements in December benefitted sown crops in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In Southeast Asia, agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable for wet-season crops in the south and dry-season crops in the north. However, storm impacts are of concern in the Philippines.
In Central America & the Caribbean, harvesting of Segunda/Postrera season maize and beans finalized under favourable conditions despite erratic rainfall and temperature outcomes.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Harvesting of main/Meher season cereals finalized in the north under mixed conditions due to erratic rains, flooding, and conflict/socio-economic impacts. Harvesting of second season cereals is underway in the south, and an exceptionally dry October to December 2025 rainfall season resulted in failed cropping outcomes in southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya (See Regional Alert Pg. 6).
WEST AFRICA: End of season conditions are generally favourable across all regions following conducive weather outcomes this season, except in Cape Verde. Poor outcomes are expected in conflict-affected regions where yields are expected to be below the pre-conflict average.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Recent enhanced rains in December 2025 and January 2026 improved winter wheat development across many areas, except in parts of Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran where delayed rains likely disrupted planting activities.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Conditions remain generally favourable for main season cereal development, except in parts of the north that experienced below-average rains and in southern Mozambique where overly wet conditions resulted in flooding (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12).
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Planting and development of winter wheat continues under favourable conditions. Rainfall improvement in December benefitted sown crops in Afghanistan following a poor start to the seasonal rains. However, forecast drier than normal conditions in February could result in slower snowpack development in parts of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and northern Pakistan (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14).
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In the south, good rains are benefiting wet-season crops. In the north, planting of dry-season crops is underway, and the impacts of tropical storms are causing concern in the Philippines. Recent conflict negatively impacted rice planting in northwestern Cambodia.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Harvesting of Segunda/Postrera season maize and beans finalized under favourable conditions despite erratic rainfall and temperature fluctuations this season, though yield reductions are expected in some localized areas. In Honduras, prolonged dry conditions are negatively impacting second season rice crops in the northwest.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over northern Quebec in Canada, Haiti, the northern Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, western Venezuela, western Ecuador, northern and southern Peru, Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy, southern Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, northern Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, the southern and eastern Russian Federation, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, southwestern Ghana, southern Nigeria, the northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, western and central Tanzania, southwest Angola, northern and eastern Kazakhstan, northwestern China, and northern Mongolia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over eastern and western Canada, the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest of the US, Yucatan in Mexico, western Cuba, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern Brazil, central Bolivia, central Argentina, Ireland, the northwestern UK, Norway, northern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, northern Belarus, the northern Russian Federation, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, central and southern Mozambique, central and eastern China, northeast India, Sri Lanka, southern Japan, southern Viet Nam, Cambodia, southern Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and southern New Zealand.
Figure 1. IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 February, issued on 30 January 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: ENSO neutral conditions are forecast during February to July with an increasing chance of El Niño event following
La Niña conditions were present in January 2026. La Niña conditions will likely subside during the next month or so. According to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook, ENSO conditions will most likely be neutral during February to April 2026 (70 percent chance) and May to July 2026 (55 percent chance). There are increasing chances that an El Niño event will develop after that– potentially by August to October 2026 (60 percent chance). While long-range forecasts made at this time of year can be unreliable, El Niño events can have widespread, global impacts.
Global temperatures for December 2025 were the fifth warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. In Australia, where extreme heat occurred during January, February is also forecast to be abnormally hot. February temperatures will likely be warmer than normal in Africa, central and eastern Asia, Brazil, Canada, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, northern Mexico, and the western United States. Abnormally cold conditions are forecast in northern and eastern Europe, western Russia, and the eastern United States during February. Extreme cold weather also impacted these regions during January.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals finalized in Ethiopia (Meher season), unimodal rainfall areas of central and northern South Sudan, Sudan, and Eritrea under mixed conditions. This season, early season dry conditions were followed by a shift to heavy rains that resulted in flooding in several areas but also led to improved soil moisture levels. The erratic rains and flooding impacts are expected to result in poor yield outcomes across unimodal rainfall areas of central and northern South Sudan and Sudan. Additionally, ongoing conflict resulted in challenges for agricultural production in Sudan, and socio-economic challenges related to a recent uptick in conflict contributed to yield declines in South Sudan. In southeastern agricultural areas of Ethiopia, poor October to December 2025 rainfall outcomes are expected to negatively impact yields (See Regional Alert Pg. 6). Elsewhere, final yield outcomes are expected to be favourable for the main season, including elsewhere in Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan, and Eritrea. Furthermore, in bimodal regions of southern South Sudan, harvesting of second season cereals also finalized in January, with poor outcomes expected in the centre-south due to dry and hot weather outcomes.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete in unimodal regions in the western half of Kenya while planting and development continue in unimodal regions of central and southern United Republic of Tanzania. Dry and hot conditions are expected to result in rice yield declines across central Kenya, and dry concerns remain across the United Republic of Tanzania. Conversely, favourable outcomes are expected for long rains maize and rice crops in the major producing regions of Kenya (West and Rift Valley). Furthermore, harvesting of second season cereals is underway in Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania, while short rains maize crops continue to develop across Kenya for harvest from February. Crops have failed in southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya, and poor outcomes are expected elsewhere in Somalia as well as in much of Uganda, central, southwest, and northern coastal areas of the United Republic of Tanzania, and other bimodal regions in the eastern half of Kenya due to dry and hot seasonal weather outcomes. Concern also remains in Rwanda and Burundi, particularly in the east, as well as in the north and northeastern areas of the United Republic of Tanzania. Conversely, conditions have been upgraded to favourable across western Uganda and western Rwanda, and favourable outcomes are expected for the major producing regions of Kenya (West and Rift Valley).
Southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and Somalia experienced an extremely dry October to December 2025 rainy season, driven by La Niña conditions and a historically strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Alert Pg. 6). The poor October to December 2025 rains follow erratic rains received during the preceding March to May 2025 season, as well as high temperatures during the June to September 2025 dry season which accelerated the loss of surface water and soil moisture.
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, harvesting of main season millet and sorghum crops finalized in January, and while satellite imagery indicates that biomass is generally average to above average, a combination of erratic rains, flooding, and ongoing conflict resulted in poor seasonal outcomes, with yields expected to be below the pre-conflict average. Early season dry conditions were followed by a shift to heavy rains that benefitted growing conditions but also resulted in flooding that impacted the western Darfur states and eastern areas near Port Sudan and Blue Nile. The total area cultivated this season is uncertain due to ongoing instability. Additionally, wheat continues to develop with concern due to ongoing conflict, though agro-climatic conditions are currently stable. In South Sudan, harvesting of main season cereals finalized in unimodal rainfall areas in the centre and north, and early season deficits followed by enhanced rains and resultant flooding along the Nile and its tributaries are expected to negatively impact final crop yields. Floodwater continued to recede in December but remained atypically high in the Sudd wetlands. Furthermore, a deterioration of security conditions from early 2025 negatively impacted agricultural activities, causing related socio-economic challenges. Harvesting of second season maize and sorghum has also finalized in bimodal rainfall areas of the south, and conditions have been downgraded to poor in the centre-south region as dry and hot weather outcomes degraded final yields. In Ethiopia, harvesting of Meher season cereals finalized under generally favourable conditions, except in the southeastern agricultural areas that experienced below-average rainfall outcomes during the October to December 2025 season (See Regional Alert Pg. 6). Elsewhere, yield outcomes are expected to be favourable despite a mix of erratic rains and flooding impacts this season, including parts of Amhara, Gambella, Oromia, and the former SNNP regions, as well as residual socio-economic challenges in parts of Tigray and Amhara. In Eritrea, harvesting of main season wheat and sorghum crops finalized under favourable conditions.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, harvesting of Deyr season maize and sorghum crops is complete or nearing completion, with failure outcomes expected in the south and poor outcomes expected in the centre and northwest due to the failed October to December 2025 Deyr rains (See Regional Alert Pg. 6). The current drought has been compounded by prior years of significant deficits, including the historic 2020 to 2023 drought, and water resources are very low for the January to March Jilaal dry season. During past years with similar La Niña patterns, Deyr season maize yields were over 40 percent below normal in the Bay region, and sorghum yields were 20 to 30 percent below normal across the country, particularly in Bay and Bakool regions located in the south. A likely transition to ENSO neutral conditions may bring average April to June Gu rainfall, but uncertainty remains high (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Alert Pg. 6). In unimodal and major producing regions in the western half of Kenya, harvesting of long rains maize finalized under favourable conditions, and short rains maize continues to develop under favourable conditions. Additionally, rice harvesting finalized in January, and conditions in the centre have been downgraded to poor due to dry and hot weather outcomes, while favourable yields are expected in the west. In bimodal and marginal producing regions in the eastern half of the country, a dry and hot short rains season is expected to result in failed cropping outcomes along the northeast and poor outcomes elsewhere. The October to December 2025 short rains season has been exceptionally dry and only 30 to 60 percent of the long-term average across most areas, driven by the La Niña event (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Alert Pg. 6). Above-average temperatures since July 2025 have exacerbated the moisture deficits, severely deteriorating vegetation and pasture conditions. Marginal producing areas in the north and east are particularly affected, with below-average yields and localized crop failures expected. The January to February 2026 dry season will worsen dry conditions until the onset of the March to May long rains, raising significant concerns for pastoral and marginal agricultural areas. In Uganda, harvesting of second season maize finalized under generally poor conditions due to dry weather outcomes, except along the west where favourable yields are expected. In Rwanda and Burundi, harvesting of Season A crops is nearing completion, and dry concerns remain in both countries, particularly in the eastern areas where there is vegetation stress. Conversely, conditions in western Rwanda have been upgraded to favourable following recent rainfall improvement. Burundi experienced delayed and below-average rainfall through most of the short rains season from September to December 2025. A shift to heavy rain in December resulted in flooding in late December, but rainfall deficits remain, particularly in the southern half of the country. Additionally, the Season A harvest is expected to be delayed by two to four weeks due to late planting. This will also likely delay Season B planting, which typically begins in February. In the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of Vuli season maize and sorghum is underway, while planting and development of Masika (bimodal regions)/Msiumu (unimodal regions) crops continue. Generally dry outcomes this season are expected to reduce yields in the centre, southwest, and northern coast, and concern remains elsewhere in the country. While there may be time for some crop recovery as the seasonal rains typically continue from November to February, it likely won’t be sufficient for significant improvement.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Alert: Severe drought over eastern East Africa following extremely poor October to December rains
October-November-December 2025: Drought conditions over eastern East Africa
Extremely below-average October to December (OND) 2025 rainfall and above-average temperatures have severely impacted crops, rangelands, and water resources across eastern East Africa. Across southern Somalia, the 2025 OND rains failed to materialize. In portions of the region, seasonal rainfall ranked among the driest on record since 1981, based on CHIRPS data. Southern areas of Juba and Shabelle received less than 30% of average rainfall (Figure 1-left). Severe rainfall deficits were also observed in southeastern Ethiopia—Oromia and Somali regions—and eastern, northeastern, and coastal Kenya. In Kenya, areas such as Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, and Kilifi received only 30% to 45% of average rainfall between October 1st and December 31st. As described in the CHC blog, the combination of very poor rainfall, high temperatures, and elevated atmospheric water demand produced severe drought conditions.
According to a report by OCHA, the failure of the OND rains to materialize has led to depleted water points, widespread crop failure, and livestock deaths in Somalia. More than 4.4 million people face acute food insecurity, with conditions expected to worsen as drought persists. In Kenya, more than 2.5 million people are at risk of severe hunger and water scarcity if the drought continues (Reliefweb). In the high-potential maize producing areas of western and southern East Africa, rainfall conditions were mixed. October to December 2025 rains were below average in northwestern and southern Uganda, and central-western and northeastern Tanzania, and average to below average in Burundi. Average to above-average rains were observed in eastern Uganda, Rwanda, and southern Tanzania.
Outlook: Above-average rains forecast across parts of western and southern regions through mid-February 2026
During recent weeks, from December 26th, 2025, to January 25th, 2026, rainfall was below average across Kenya, eastern and southern Tanzania, and localized portions of central-northern Tanzania (Figure 1 middle-left). Rainfall was above average in Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, southwestern Ethiopia, and parts of western and northern Tanzania. Above-average rains are forecast across Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Uganda, and western Kenya based on the CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for January 28th to February 11th. During February 2nd to February 16th, the ECMWF also forecasts above-average rainfall in western-southwestern Ethiopia, signaling a potential start to the Belg rains.
In the rainfall deficit areas of central-eastern Kenya and Somalia, dry conditions are expected to prevail in the coming weeks, as is typical during the January–February dry season. Satellite-based indices show significantly drier-than-normal vegetation conditions, and land surface temperatures are hotter than normal. Until March-to-May 2026 rains become established, hotter-than-normal conditions could dry soils and vegetation more quickly than usual.
During March–April–May (MAM) 2026, the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (Figure 1 middle-right) and the WMO and NMME (Figure 1-right) multi-model ensembles all indicate elevated chances of above-average rains in western Ethiopia and western South Sudan, though probabilities are low to moderate, reflecting substantial forecast uncertainty. In the eastern Horn, where the OND 2025 rainfall season performed so poorly, there is a high level of uncertainty regarding March to May 2026 rainfall conditions. Multiple multi-model ensemble forecasts do not provide a clear outlook regarding if seasonal rains will more likely be below-normal, normal, or above-normal. There will likely not be a strong large-scale climate forcing during MAM 2026, as current La Niña conditions are expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during February to April (more than 85% chance). In such conditions, transient influences such as the Madden Julian Oscillation can be an important determinant of intraseasonal rainfall distribution. In Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania, SubC models indicate that February rains will likely be above normal, similar to the GHACOF forecast for MAM 2026. The SubC indicates mixed conditions in other parts of Tanzania.
As the MAM season approaches, short- to medium-range forecasts and rainfall observations should be closely monitored for assessments of rangeland and rainfed agricultural conditions. Temperature conditions are forecast to be above-average during this period.
Figure 1. A seasonal rainfall anomaly, recent rainfall anomaly, and 3-month rainfall forecast. Left and middle-left panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the 1981–2024 CHIRPS average for the respective accumulation period. Left: The percent of average precipitation for October 1st to December 31st, 2025, using CHIRPS data for October 1st to December 31st. Middle-left: This panel shows precipitation anomaly for December 26th, 2025 to January 25th, 2026, using CHIRPS Preliminary data for January 01-25. Middle-right: Seasonal forecast for March to May (MAM) 2026 rainfall, from the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72). GHACOF 72 was held on January 26th to 27th, 2026, by IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), in collaboration with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services across the region, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and other international partners. Seasonal forecasts from 9 global producing centers were used to develop the outlook. Source: ICPAC. Right: SubC multi-model rainfall tercile probability forecast for March to May (MAM) 2026 rainfall. From UCSB CHC SubC.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In West Africa, harvesting of both main and second season cereals is complete across all regions, including Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Along the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is complete in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad, while second season rice crops continue to develop in Mauritania and Mali. Agro-climatic conditions have remained favourable throughout the season, and final yields are expected to be near average in most countries, with the exception of conflict-affected areas of the region, including central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Nigeria, western Chad, the Southwestern region of Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Conversely, a poor performance of the August to October 2025 rainy season in Cape Verde, including below-average rainfall amounts with erratic distribution, negatively affected crop establishment and development. Drought conditions in October had a negative impact on yields, and maize production is expected to be 40 percent below average due to unfavourable weather outcomes and a reduction in planted area as farmers are abandoning agricultural activities in some areas of the country.
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Winter Wheat conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, winter wheat is in the vegetative to reproductive stage across Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Rainfall improvement in December 2025 and January 2026 benefitted sown crops in many areas, resulting in favourable conditions for western Morocco, central and eastern Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, southwestern Syria, north and western Iraq, and much of Iran. However, delayed rains at the beginning of the season negatively impacted planting activities and continue to cause concern in central eastern Morocco, western Algeria, Libya, Lebanon, much of Syria, southeastern Iraq, and parts of Iran.
In Morocco, the country experienced a drier than normal start to the season from October to mid-November 2025. However, rains improved from the second dekad of November, and winter cereals were sown normally in November and December. Additionally, abundant precipitation received in December 2025 and January 2026 improved crop growth, and crop biomass is near to above average, except in the central and eastern regions, primarily Tadla Azilal, Meknes, and Oriental, where biomass remained low, likely due to delayed or failed sowings following four consecutive seasons of low rainfall. Rainfall outcomes during the coming months will be important to support further crop development. In Algeria, conditions are mixed for winter cereals sown from October 2025 to January 2026. In the western half of the country from the Moroccan border to Medea, below-average rainfall at the beginning of the season was followed by improvements from mid-December, though crop biomass remains below average, likely due to delayed sowings following three years of low rainfall and harvests. Conversely, rainfall along the eastern half of the country has been near average with near to above-average crop biomass. In Tunisia, conditions are near average for winter cereals sown from October to December 2025, except in localized parts of the east (Zaghouan, Ben Arous, Sousse, and Monastir) where biomass is below average, likely due to delayed or failed sowings. Rainfall deficits at the beginning of the season were followed by a shift to near to above-average amounts in December 2025 and January 2026, and crop biomass is near average in most regions, including in the main producing Beja, Bizerte, Jendouba, and Siliana regions located in the north. In Libya, early season dry conditions were followed by abundant rainfall in December 2025. However, vegetation conditions remain below average in most areas as of mid-January and notably in areas west of Tripoli located in the northwest where the sown area has likely been reduced. In Egypt, winter wheat planting began in November 2025 under favourable weather conditions. In late October, the government announced a set wheat procurement price at over 40 percent of international prices in an effort to expand planted area and domestic production. Additionally, highly favourable weather conditions this season, including adequate chilling periods necessary for tillering and heading, could result in the highest wheat harvest on record.
In Lebanon, seasonal rains arrived late in December 2025, resulting in below-average vegetation conditions as of the second dekad of January 2026 despite recent above-average precipitation outcomes. In Syria, winter cereals sown from October 2025 to mid-January 2026 have below-average crop biomass in most northwest and central areas (Aleppo, Idleb, Hama, and Homs). Below-average rainfall in October and November 2025 was followed by improvement to near-average levels, but a lack of crop biomass improvement suggests limited sowings in the main producing north, following a failed 2025 harvest. In Iraq, sowings of winter cereals finalized in December 2025. Following a dry start to the seasonal rains in October and November 2025, abundant rains were received in December 2025, and near-normal rains were received in January 2026. From December 9 to 12, northern areas were particularly impacted by heavy rains and severe flash flooding across Sulaymaniyah, Kirkuk, Erbil, and Ninawa governorates. However, crop biomass is near average in the main producing northern regions (Ninewa, Dahuk, Erbil, Salah Al-Din, and Diyala) despite flooding impacts. Conversely, biomass is below average in the southeast (Babil, Qadissiya, Wassit, Thi-Qar, and Missan), likely due to a reduction in the sown area. In Iran, sowing of winter wheat and barley finalized in November 2025 and mid-January 2026, respectively. The season started with below-average rainfall at the end of October through November 2025 but was followed by a shift to favourable precipitation in December 2025 and January 2026, which benefitted cereal growth. Southern provinces of Fars, Hormozgan, and Khuzestan experienced heavy rains, flash floods, and river overflow in mid-December. Crop biomass is below average from the centre west (Kermanshah and Lorestan) to the south (Fars), except in the main producing Khuzestan province, and crop biomass is also below average in parts of the centre (Esfahan) and the northeast (Golestan). Elsewhere, biomass is near average.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across Southern Africa, main season cereals are mostly in the vegetative to reproductive stage across all regions, including in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, eSwatini, and Lesotho. Growing conditions remain mostly favourable, except in Angola due to ongoing dry and hot conditions, southern Mozambique due to heavy rains and flooding, and northeastern Mozambique due to ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado. Additionally, across east and southern Angola, western Zambia, western Madagascar, western South Africa, and Lesotho, dry and hot conditions have persisted from December 2025 through early January 2026, and vegetation conditions are mixed but generally favourable.
The onset of seasonal rains was early in many central and southern areas, and precipitation outcomes from October 2025 to early January 2026 have also been above average across central and southern areas. The rains have generally benefitted crop growth and dam levels but have also resulted in flooding impacts and pest and disease outbreaks. The precipitation improved dam levels significantly across many regions, and levels of the Kariba Dam have improved marginally to over 10 percent of full capacity, though load shedding continues in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Heavy rains in December and January also resulted in widespread flooding across several areas, including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, and eSwatini, impacting crops along low-lying and riverine areas and causing waterlogging. Additionally, African Migratory Locust hoppers are present in western Zimbabwe and neighbouring areas of northeastern Namibia, and Brown Locust swarms from southern Namibia have reached neighbouring areas of western South Africa. Conversely, northern areas have received below-average rainfall amounts, including in southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola, northern Zambia, and southwestern Madagascar (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). During past years with similar La Niña patterns, maize yields were above normal in South Africa and Zimbabwe and near to below normal in Malawi, Zambia, and Angola.
In Angola, conditions have been downgraded to watch along the north and key producing central provinces where below-average rains since the start of the season combined with above-average temperatures, particularly during January, have negatively impacted vegetation conditions. In Zimbabwe, following a slow start to the seasonal rains in October 2025, rainfall increased significantly in November. Generally above-average rainfall received from October to mid-December 2025 benefitted land preparation and planting activities. Additionally, above-average rains received in January were supportive of agricultural production but caused some localized flooding in areas of the south. Cumulative seasonal rainfall from October 2025 to January 2026 is near double the seasonal average, with higher amounts received in the south, southwest, and some western areas. Cropped area is above average for staple crops this season, and planted area for both maize and sorghum has surpassed the expected target, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. While the heavy rains resulted in some difficulties such as nutrient leaching, waterlogging, crop yellowing, and challenges in weed control and fertilizer application, most crops are in favourable growing conditions. An above-average planted area and relatively fewer growing issues in the high producing northern areas are likely to lead to an above-average national harvest this season. Average to above-average rains are expected to continue through March 2026, which will likely benefit crops but could result in localized flooding and crop damage (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). In Malawi, most areas have received average to above-average rainfall amounts since the start of the rainfall season in October 2025. While average to above-average rains are expected through March (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12), possible dry and hot spells in key maize producing central districts could adversely affect maize yields. In Mozambique, October to mid-December rainfall was mostly above average, followed by record-breaking rainfall in late December 2025 through January 2026, which resulted in severe flooding in the central and southern regions. The floods have damaged an estimated 104,600 hectares to 275,000 hectares of agricultural land with many areas remaining inundated. The situation has been compounded by exceptionally high upstream river inflows from South Africa and Zimbabwe and controlled emergency discharges from dams. Gaza, Maputo, Inhambane, and Sofala are currently the worst-affected provinces. Additional rains and floods are forecast in the coming days, and additional weather systems may affect the country as it is currently in the middle of the cyclone season. The rains have generally supported crop development in well drained and higher elevation areas, while low-lying areas have experienced localized crop losses and delays in weeding. In Madagascar, below-average rains in December 2025 resulted in dryness in parts of the west and south (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). Conversely, Moderate Tropical Storm Ewetse impacted southwestern areas on January 21, improving moisture levels in the drought-affected areas but increasing the risk of flooding. Additionally, Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on January 31, bringing a high risk of flooding, wind damage, and storm surge in low-lying coastal areas, particularly along the western coast. In South Africa, growing conditions are mostly favourable. However, recent dry and hot conditions over the western production regions could become a concern if the expected rains in the coming weeks do not materialize, which would bring cooler and wetter conditions (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). Preliminary estimates indicate a 2.98 percent increase in the planted area of maize crops compared to the previous season. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of main season maize and sorghum is underway along the east, while planting and development of both main and second season cereals is underway along the centre and southeast. Growing conditions remain favourable, except in the east where ongoing conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities. Conflict has intensified since December 2025, and affected populations are facing difficulties accessing land and food.
Regional Outlook: Above-average season-to-date rainfall in many areas, but with major flooding and damage to croplands in Mozambique
Seasonal rainfall totals, from October 1st, 2025, to February 10th, 2026, are above average or near average in most active crop growing areas. Seasonal rainfall deficits will likely continue in central-western Angola and portions of western Zambia and central and southern Madagascar into at least early February (Figure 1-left).
During recent weeks, above-average rainfall was observed in southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, central Malawi, northeastern South Africa, southern Mozambique, and southeastern Madagascar, while rainfall was below average elsewhere in South Africa, central and northwestern Angola, and northern Madagascar (Figure 1 middle-left). Extreme rainfall conditions caused devastating floods, infrastructure damage, and many fatalities. In southern Zimbabwe, southern and central Mozambique, and northeastern South Africa, CHIRPS preliminary estimates of past 30-day rainfall are 2 to more than 3 times higher than average and October 1st to January 25th totals are among the highest on record (Figure 1 middle-right). In Mozambique, there were 69 fatalities (ReliefWeb/INGD), more than 700 thousand people were impacted, and 275 thousand hectares of cropland were lost (INGD dashboard, January 30th). In Zimbabwe and South Africa, 78 and 31 fatalities were reported, respectively (SADC Agromet Update).
During late January to early February, and potentially longer into February, below-normal rainfall is forecast in central and southeastern areas, based on CHIRPS-GEFS and the SubC 30-day rainfall forecast from January 28th. In South Africa, models indicate mainly average to above-average rainfall during February (Figure 1 right). Late January and forecast rainfall for early February indicate a possible several week long period of much lower than average rainfall in some central areas. Drier and warmer-than-average conditions would aid recovery of flooded areas. Conditions and forecasts during February should be closely monitored in case the relatively dry period negatively impacts crops. There is no clear outlook for March to May 2026 precipitation conditions, based on global climate model forecasts produced in January and expected ENSO neutral conditions.
According to the January 23rd, 2026 SADC Agromet Update, the rainfall conditions this season have benefitted local water storage and soil moisture, but also locusts in some areas. Some dams in Lesotho, eSwatini, Botswana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe are near full capacity. Kariba Dam levels are increasing (as of January 26th, to 10 percent of usable storage capacity) but load shedding continues in Zimbabwe and Zambia. The Zambezi River Authority projects that during this year the dam will reach close to half capacity. As of mid January, African Migratory Locust hoppers are actively damaging field crops and pastures in Zimbabwe’s Matabeland North Province and Namibia’s Zambezi region. Surveillance and control operations are ongoing, due to high risks of locust expansion.
Figure 1. Seasonal rainfall anomaly, recent rainfall anomaly, season rainfall rank, and 30-day rainfall probability forecast. Left, middle-left, and middle-right panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the 1981–2025 CHIRPS average for the respective accumulation period. All three panels use CHIRPS3 Preliminary for January 1-25, 2026. Left and middle-left: Percent of average precipitation for October 1st, 2025, to February 10th, 2026, and for December 26th, 2025, to January 25th, 2026, respectively. The seasonal anomaly outlook (Left) includes a 16-day CHIRPS3-GEFS forecast for January 26th to February 10th. Middle-right: Historical rainfall rank for October 1st, 2025, to January 25th, 2026. This shows how the total for this period compares to the historical record (1981-2024) for the same time period. Red and blue hues indicate the current season total is in the top 3 driest or wettest events of the CHIRPS record. Right: SubC multi-model rainfall tercile probability forecast for January 28th to February 26th, 2026. From UCSB CHC SubC.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing Winter Wheat conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central & South Asia, planting and development of winter wheat continues in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Overall conditions are favourable for ongoing crop development. Despite a poor start to the seasonal rains in Afghanistan that resulted in a below-average planted area, the well-timed, evenly distributed precipitation in December 2025 and January 2026 facilitated the successful germination of seeds sown earlier in the season. In Pakistan, sufficient irrigation water supply is supporting Rabi season wheat development despite well below-average precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures in December 2025 and January 2026.
In Afghanistan, the start of the wet season in October and November 2025 was significantly below average across most areas, resulting in widespread deficits. The late and below-average rains and low soil moisture from previous months disrupted rainfed winter wheat planting, resulting in an overall below-average planted area of winter wheat, primarily in the north and northeast. Conversely, planting of irrigated winter wheat continued under favourable conditions, supported by adequate surface water and supplemental groundwater. Rainfall amounts improved substantially in December 2025 and January 2026, improving overall seasonal conditions due to the weakening intensity of La Niña. Sown seeds germinated successfully due to the precipitation received in December and January, and overall conditions are favourable for the sown area. Cumulative October to December 2025 rainfall amounts were above average in the west, near average in the north and northeast, and below average elsewhere. Snowpack levels have also improved significantly following storms in late December and late January but could slow in east and northern areas if forecast below-normal rainfall in February materializes (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14). In Pakistan, harvesting of Kharif (summer) season rice is now complete, and end of season conditions are favourable despite significant flooding impacts from the 2025 monsoon season. Planting of the mostly irrigated Rabi season wheat crop finalized in December 2025. The planted area is estimated to be above average, supported by near-record domestic prices and adequate soil moisture conditions at planting time. Government support measures, including the distribution of high-yielding seed varieties and the resumption of government procurement for the 2026 crop at the minimum support price, after a two-year suspension, encouraged farmers to plant wheat. Despite well below-average precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures in December 2025 and January 2026, vegetation conditions are average to above average in the main cropping areas due to sufficient irrigation water supply. However, dry weather resulted in minor crop losses in the northern Barani rainfed areas, which account for 20 percent of total wheat plantings, and in some irrigated northern areas due to a shortage of irrigation water. Crops are now in the vegetative to reproductive stage under generally favourable conditions, and harvesting is expected to start in April. Overall production will depend on rainfall performance through April, as abundant precipitation is needed to support development and replenish main reservoirs, which will also be used to irrigate the 2026 main season crops from May onwards.
Regional Outlook: Mixed season-to-date precipitation conditions and below-average snowpack
Following a drier-than-average beginning to the fall and winter 2025–2026 season, precipitation during December and January has led to mixed season-to-date precipitation across the region. Several severe, impactful storms occurred. In Afghanistan, flash floods killed 17 people in Herat and damaged agricultural land and homes in December. In January, several days of heavy snow and rain killed 61 people, hundreds of livestock, and damaged infrastructure. The December–January precipitation was beneficial for germination of seeds sown in Afghanistan during the winter wheat planting season and for very dry pasture areas. It brought basins and dams to near-average levels, except in basins in the north and northeast. During upcoming weeks, forecast precipitation across most areas of the region will increase snowpack and soil moisture. This may benefit land preparation for spring wheat planting in some areas. However, forecasts indicate that ongoing seasonal precipitation deficits may expand or deepen in some areas and potentially constrain February snowpack development in the southeast.
Seasonal precipitation conditions for October 1st, 2025, to February 10, 2026, are illustrated by Figure 1-left, which includes preliminary January 1st to 25th data and a 16-day forecast. The values are the standardized precipitation index, which reflects relative differences from historical observed precipitation; colors indicate abnormal to extreme conditions. October 1st to January 25th precipitation totals are above average in southeastern Turkmenistan, western and eastern Uzbekistan, southern-central Kazakhstan, and in western Afghanistan and parts of the southern and central highlands. Totals are below-average in southern and northern Afghanistan, Tajikistan, southern and northeastern Kyrgyzstan, southeastern Kazakhstan, central Uzbekistan, and western Turkmenistan.
In southwestern Afghanistan, forecast precipitation would bring seasonal totals closer to average levels, while precipitation deficits may persist or worsen in northern-central and southeastern areas of Afghanistan. Below-average precipitation is forecast in these areas during late January, and potentially through February, based on the two-week CHIRPS-GEFS and the next 30-day SubC forecast (Figure 1-middle) from January 26th to February 28th. Deficits in eastern Tajikistan and portions of southern Kazakhstan may also persist into early February. The SubC 30-day forecast indicates drier-than-normal conditions in southeastern, northern, and eastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, and Tajikistan. ECMWF and GEFS forecasts from January 28th indicate above-average precipitation during the next two weeks in western Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
The 2025–2026 snow season began with extremely low snow water equivalent (SWE) levels in the southern region (Figure 1-right), following multiple years of hydrologic drought and the late arrival of substantial storms. The storms in late December and late January importantly helped build up snowpack, though as of late January, SWE remains below average and similar to the low levels observed last year. February is typically a month when seasonal snowpack substantially increases in this area. If the below-normal SubC next-30 day precipitation forecast materializes, it could result in a slower snowpack development in eastern and northern Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and northern Pakistan. February is typically a month when seasonal snowpack substantially increases in this area. Thus while seasonal peak snow conditions are uncertain, there remains concern that this season could be another below-average one. Warmer-than-normal temperatures will likely speed the melting of snow during spring.
There is no clear outlook for March to May 2026 precipitation conditions, based on global climate model forecasts produced in January and expected ENSO neutral conditions. Short- to medium-range forecasts and rainfall observations will be important for assessments of spring hydrologic and rainfed agricultural conditions.
Figure 1. Season precipitation outlook, 30-day precipitation forecast, and the Afghanistan regional snow water equivalent. Left: Seasonal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for October 1st, 2025, to February 10th, 2026, using CHIRPS3 preliminary data for January and a 16-day CHIRPS3-GEFS forecast for January 26th to February 10th. From the CHC Early Estimates. Middle: SubC multi-model rainfall tercile probability forecast for January 28th to February 26th, 2026. From UCSB CHC SubC. Right: Variations in regional Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (mm) for a domain that encompasses most of Afghanistan and parts of southern Tajikistan and northern Pakistan, in Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain range areas. The dotted line indicates average SWE (2001-2025 period), the blue line shows SWE for Oct. 2024 - Sep. 2025, and the red line shows SWE for Oct. 1st, 2025, to January 27th, 2026. From NASA, using SWE estimates from the FLDAS Central Asia model.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, planting progress of wet-season rice is steadily expanding, driven by significant rainfall received from late December 2025 to mid-January 2026. Additionally, harvesting of wet-season rice is underway with favourable yields expected due to good weather conditions during the growing period. Seeding of wet-season maize is supported by favourable rainfall, and harvesting has begun in Indonesia. The wet-season maize yield is expected to be favourable due to sufficient irrigation water and sunlight resources.
In northern Southeast Asia, planting of dry-season rice is underway in most areas, with the exception of northern Viet Nam where harvesting continues for winter crops. The total planted area for dry-season rice is expected to decrease slightly compared to the last season due to the prolonged impacts of flooding in late 2025. Crops are in the early growing stage under generally favourable conditions, except in the Philippines, which experienced heavy rains during the vegetative stages and pest and disease outbreaks. Sowing of dry-season maize is also underway in most areas, and the planted area is expected to increase compared to last year as farmers shifted from dry-season rice to maize cultivation due to favourable maize prices. Harvesting is underway in the Philippines, though maize production is expected to decline compared to last year as tropical cyclones resulted in heavy rains and strong winds that impacted the early growth stages of kernel development.
Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, crops are under mixed conditions. Yield declines are expected in southeastern Nepal due to prior rainfall deficits, and concern remains in Sri Lanka where Cyclone Ditwah impacted the country in late November 2025, bringing severe flooding, landslides, and damage to cropland.
In Indonesia, January is the fourth month of wet-season rice planting, with a cumulative planted area of 4.5 million hectares. Planting progress is steadily expanding, driven by significant rainfall received from late December 2025 to mid-January 2026. Harvesting of wet-season rice is also underway and has reached 0.4 million hectares. Sufficient sunlight during the growing period is expected to result in a favourable yield. January is also the fourth month of wet-season maize planting, with a seeded area of 1.0 million hectares, which is 9.7 percent lower than the last wet season. Adequate irrigation water is contributing to favourable growing conditions. Harvesting of wet-season maize is also underway, with a current harvested area of 0.2 million hectares, and sufficient irrigation water and sunlight resources are expected to result in a favourable yield. In Malaysia, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion, and growing conditions are generally favourable despite irregular rains received in January. Harvesting is underway in some areas, reaching about 16 percent of the planted area. Planting of wet-season maize continues under favourable conditions, supported by rains during the Northeast Monsoon. Most early-planted fields are establishing well, and crops in the early vegetative stage are growing favourably. Additionally, planting of dry-season rice is underway in some areas of Central Malaysia, and about 2 percent of the total granary areas have been planted. Favourable weather conditions and irrigation water supply are supporting paddy cultivation. In Brunei, harvesting of wet-season rice began in January, and significant precipitation has resulted in flash flooding. While no crop damage has been reported, a likely continuation of heavy rains may affect yield outcomes in the coming months.
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In the Philippines, dry-season rice planted from November to December 2025 has reached the tillering to young panicle forming stages, and overall crop conditions remain favourable due to consistent water supply from irrigation and rainfall. However, yield may decline compared to the previous year due to excessive rains received during the vegetative stages and reported pest and disease outbreaks. Additionally, dry-season maize planted from September to October 2025 is now in the ripening to harvesting stage. Maize production is expected to decline compared to last year’s level due to tropical cyclones that resulted in heavy rains and strong winds during the early growth stages of kernel development. In Thailand, the total planted area of dry-season rice is expected to decline by 2 percent compared to last year due to lower prices as well as prolonged flooding through December 2025 that delayed planting activities in some areas. Planted area is 1.1 million hectares, accounting for 52 percent of the national plan. Crops are in the tillering stage, and growing conditions remain favourable due to adequate irrigation and sufficient natural water availability. Rice yields are expected to increase slightly compared to last year. Additionally, the planted area of dry-season maize is expected to increase compared to last year due to a shift from dry-season rice to maize cultivation as a result of favourable maize prices. The total sown area is 97 thousand hectares. Dry-season maize is in the reproductive/flowering stage, and both yield and production are expected to improve, supported by adequate irrigation use and effective pest and disease management. In northern Viet Nam, planting of dry-season (winter-spring) rice has not yet commenced as farmers are still completing the harvesting of winter crops. Additionally, January is the second month of dry-season maize sowing, with a sown area of 124.9 thousand hectares, which is 5.4 percent lower than last year. Favourable rainfall is supporting crop emergence. In southern Viet Nam, dry-season rice is in the sowing stage, concentrated mainly in the Mekong River Delta. While current sowing conditions are favourable, forecast higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and saline intrusion during the first quarter of 2026 could affect crop establishment and early growth. Dry-season maize sowing has not yet begun in the south. In Laos, the planting plan of 2025/26 dry-season rice is expected to be 98 thousand hectares, and production is expected to be 443 thousand tons. Planting activities began in January and reached 23 thousand hectares. Crops are in the early vegetative growth stage, supported by adequate weather conditions and irrigation water supply. Additionally, sowing of dry-season maize is underway and has exceeded the national plan at 4.7 thousand hectares. Production is expected to be 23 thousand tons with a favourable yield of 4.93 tons per hectare due to good weather conditions and sufficient irrigation water supply. In Myanmar, harvesting of wet-season maize is now complete with a favourable yield of 3.82 tons per hectare. Planting of dry-season rice has reached 489 thousand hectares, accounting for 43 percent of the national plan of 1.13 million hectares. Planting progress is currently similar to last year but may increase due to higher availability of irrigation water this year. Growing conditions are favourable, and most crops are at the early vegetative growth stages. Additionally, sowing of dry-season maize is advancing rapidly, reaching 82.3 percent of the national planting target. Soil moisture and precipitation conditions remain favourable. In Cambodia, the planted area of dry-season rice reached 660 thousand hectares, a 19 percent decrease compared to the previous year due to the presence of conflict in the northwest region. However, growing conditions for planted crops are favourable, with an average yield estimated at 4.7 tons per hectare. Additionally, the sown area of dry-season maize reached 21 thousand hectares, which accounts for 73 percent of the national plan and is 7 percent lower than last year. Crops are in the reproductive to grain filling stage under favourable conditions due to stable temperatures and sunlight, though some areas were not planted.
In Sri Lanka, Maha season maize (90 percent of annual maize output) and Maha season rice (60 percent of annual rice output) crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from February. Cyclone Ditwah impacted the country in late November 2025, bringing extreme rains that triggered severe flooding and landslides. The cyclone resulted in damage to agriculture, including paddy, vegetable, and maize crops, as well as agricultural infrastructure and struck when farmers had just planted or were in the process of planting. The floods inundated over 106,293 hectares of paddy fields, representing about 20 percent of total sowings, particularly in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, and Trincomalee districts. In Nepal, harvesting of main season rice finalized in late 2025, and production is forecast at a slightly below-average level of 5.4 million tonnes due to a contraction in the planted area as well as June to July 2025 rainfall deficits in the main producing Madhesh Province located in the southeast. Elsewhere, cumulative June to October 2025 rains were adequate to support planting and favourable yield outcomes. Wheat crops are developing under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvesting of Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice output) finalized in January, and conducive weather outcomes are expected to result in above-average yield and production amounts. Rabi season maize and wheat crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, while planting of Boro season rice (55 percent of annual rice output) continues under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
In Central America, harvesting of Segunda/Postrera season maize and beans finalized in January across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. End of season conditions are favourable, though localized losses resulted for many smallholder farmers due to erratic rainfall and temperature fluctuations this season. Seasonal rains were generally average to above average but had extended dry periods, and temperatures were mostly hot but included a cold front in November along the Caribbean areas of Guatemala and Honduras.
In Guatemala, rainfall delays during the first rainy season and the subsequent delay in the establishment of Primera season crops resulted in planting delays for the Segunda/Postrera season by 10 to 30 days. The short duration and irregular distribution of the second rainy season negatively impacted the development of Segunda/Postrera season crops. Additionally, above-average temperatures compounded dry soil conditions in December 2025, while cold fronts along the Northern Transversal Strip resulted in increased rains, localized flooding, and agricultural damage to some localized areas. Conversely, in east and southern areas, including Valles de Oriente, Bocacosta, and Litoral Pacífico, adequate soil moisture at planting time and average vegetation conditions throughout the season benefitted crop yields. Overall planted area for maize is slightly below average due to lower year on year prices at planting time in August and September 2025, though production and yield are expected to be near average. In El Salvador, the Segunda season maize harvest (20 percent of annual maize production) is expected to be above average, supported by favourable weather outcomes and government interventions, including the provision of seeds, fertilizers, and fungicides. The area planted is expected to be slightly above average due to higher year on year maize prices at planting time. While precipitation received from September to mid-October 2025 resulted in localized flooding and landslides and saturated soils, particularly along the coast, a shift to adequate soil moisture conditions from mid-October benefitted Segunda season maize crops. Conversely, erratic rains, dry spells, and heat stress, particularly in the Dry Corridor, are expected to result in an average to slightly below-average Postrera bean harvest. Forecast average rainfall amounts and temperatures are expected to support the start of Primera season sowing activities in May. In Honduras, production of the Segunda season maize crop (20 percent of annual maize production) is expected to be average. The start of the season was slightly delayed due to the ongoing harvest of the preceding Primera season crop. Favourable weather conditions supported planting activities for Segunda season maize but were followed by well above-average rainfall in October 2025 that saturated soil moisture and curbed yield prospects in localized areas. Conversely, adequate crop moisture levels benefitted vegetation conditions for Postrera season bean crops, with an average harvest expected. However, overall erratic rainfall distribution and above-average temperatures are expected to reduce yields for smallholder farmers, particularly in the Dry Corridor located along the western border. Additionally, harvesting of second season rice crops continues, and conditions have been downgraded to watch due to prolonged dry conditions that resulted in localized crop losses in the north-western regions. In Nicaragua, Apante season bean crops (35 percent of annual bean production) are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions.
In Haiti, second season rice and Hiver season bean crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions despite localized impacts from Hurricane Melissa. The passage of Hurricane Melissa in late October 2025 resulted in damage to autumn crops, including bananas, maize, sorghum, roots and tubers, and pigeon peas, as well as irrigation systems. The most affected areas of the greater south, including Grand'Anse, Sud, Nippes, and Sud-Est provinces, continue to face lingering impacts to infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods. Below-average rainfall received from November to mid-December 2025 was followed by a shift to above-average rains from late December 2025 through January 2026, which included episodic heavy rainfall events interspersed with prolonged dry spells. However, overall growing conditions remain favourable due to soil moisture recharge following the late December rain, as well as near to slightly below-average temperatures that reduced crop water demand. Vegetation improvements occurred in parts of Artibonite, Ouest, Sud-Est, and the Gonaïves area, though localized vegetation stress remains due to the erratic rains. Furthermore, protracted conflict continues to impact the country, and deteriorated security conditions in 2025 further constrained access to livelihood opportunities. The lack of regular access to farmland, inputs, and markets has limited both the sown area and production potential for the winter season. In Cuba, second season bean crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions, while planting of second season rice crops (1/3 of annual rice production) continues with concern due to a combination of dry and hot conditions in the central western regions as well as socio-economic instability that is resulting in a lack of agricultural inputs and disrupting planting operations.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 (Segunda season) conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on Pg. 18.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published February 5th, 2026.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.