Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 107: Published August 7th, 2025
Conditions as of July 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, end of season conditions are mixed for Belg season cereals in Ethiopia, and conditions are also mixed for the ongoing main season harvest throughout the region.
In West Africa, despite moderate rainfall deficits in some areas, crop water requirements are generally being met. Conditions remain favourable in non-conflict affected areas.
In the Middle East & North Africa, wheat harvesting finalized in July, and dry and hot weather this season contributed to yield declines across most countries.
In South Africa, the 2024/25 main season is now complete, and wheat crops are developing under favourable conditions across all countries.
In Central & South Asia, winter wheat harvesting is nearing completion with mostly favourable conditions, while dry concerns remain for spring wheat in most areas.
In Southeast Asia, conditions remain mostly favourable for ongoing paddy production, except in Brunei where dry concerns are expected to continue.
In Central America & the Caribbean, vegetation conditions are mixed for the Primera season as delayed and irregular rains necessitated replanting efforts.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Harvesting of Belg season maize finalized in Ethiopia under mixed conditions, and harvesting of main/Meher season cereals is underway with poor outcomes expected in parts of Kenya and Somalia due to drier and hotter than normal conditions. Generally above-average rains are expected through October in most areas, except along the east and southeast (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6).
WEST AFRICA: Agro-climatic conditions remain favourable for planting and development of main season cereals as harvesting begins in some southern areas. While moderate deficits were recorded in some areas, crop water requirements are generally being met. Average to above-average rains are expected to continue through October along the Sahel, while dry conditions are expected in southern coastal areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9).
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Wheat harvesting finalized in July under mixed conditions, with dry and hot weather resulting in yield declines across parts of Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Conditions remain favourable for rice cultivation in Egypt and Iran.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Harvesting for the 2024/25 main season finalized in June with improved prospects compared to the previous year. Wheat is developing under favourable conditions, with near-normal rains supporting both dryland and irrigated production in South Africa.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Winter wheat harvesting is nearing completion while spring wheat harvesting is just beginning, and dry concerns remain in most areas except across northern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and south and southeastern Afghanistan.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Dry-season rice is in the final development stage in the south, and wet-season rice is in the tillering to maturing stages in the north. Overall conditions are favourable with adequate rains and irrigation water supply in most areas, except in Brunei where dry concerns remain and are expected to continue.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN:Delayed and irregular rains necessitated replanting efforts for the Primera season, particularly for small-scale farmers, resulting in mixed vegetation conditions. Dry and hot conditions continue to impact Guatemala and southern Honduras, and most areas are seeing an increase in pests and diseases. Dry conditions are expected through October in northern areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 20).
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over northern and western Brazil, northern Peru, southwest Mauritania, southern Mali, central east Chad, western Sudan, southeast South Sudan, Eritrea, northern and southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, northeast Kazakhstan, southwest and southeastern China, the southern Philippines, Indonesia, western Papua New Guinea, and south central Australia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over western Canada, the northwest and western Great Plains in the US, northeast Mexico, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay, central Chile, Ireland, the western United Kingdom, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, western Germany, Poland, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, southern Belarus, the southwestern Russian Federation, western Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, northern Tunisia, northern Algeria, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, northern and eastern Uzbekistan, central Mongolia, eastern India, and western China.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 – 22 August 2025, issued on 1 August 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: ENSO-neutral conditions present and likely to continue through the end of 2025
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (87 to 43 percent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). Forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions could potentially occur during October to January (up to a 49 percent chance), while the chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may develop during August to October 2025, based on observations during late July and forecasts from C3S and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts (~ 50 to 60 percent chances). Negative IOD conditions typically lead to below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa and above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region.
Global temperatures for May 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin.
During late June to July, heatwaves occurred in China, Europe, Japan, the Middle East, the United States, and South Korea. During late July to August, above-average temperatures are forecast in parts of central and northeastern Asia, central and northern Eurasia, the Middle East, central and northern North America, southern South America, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of Belg season maize finalized in July in Ethiopia under mixed conditions, with favourable outcomes in the west and poor outcomes in the north and centre due to drier than normal conditions as well as persistent socio-economic challenges related to the prior active conflict in the north. Harvesting of main season cereals is just beginning in the Central and Western Equatoria regions of South Sudan while planting and development continues elsewhere in South Sudan and throughout Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia (Meher season), and Yemen under mixed conditions due to a mix of widespread flooding in the Nile Sobat region of South Sudan, ongoing conflict in Sudan, delayed rains and socio-economic concerns in Ethiopia, and dry and hot conditions in Yemen.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in bimodal regions of central and southern Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. Additionally, harvesting activities continue in bimodal and minor producing regions of eastern Kenya, Somalia, and bimodal regions along the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, while crops continue to develop in unimodal and major producing regions of western Kenya and in unimodal regions of northern Uganda. Overall conditions are mixed for main season cereals, and production prospects are uncertain in many areas due in part to the erratic temporal distribution of the March to May rains. In Rwanda and Burundi, end of season conditions are favourable despite rainfall delays and deficits received during the first half of the season. Conversely, poor outcomes are expected in bimodal Kenya and in Somalia due to persistent dry and hot conditions, and concern remains in bimodal Uganda and coastal Kenya due to ongoing dry concerns. Elsewhere, favourable yield outcomes are expected.
Wetter than normal conditions are expected across most areas through October, except in east and southeastern areas of the region, including southeastern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and northeastern United Republic of Tanzania. Additionally, hotter than normal temperatures are present across the eastern Horn and are expected to continue through October. The high temperatures could exacerbate the impacts of dry conditions before the start of the October to December short rains, which are also expected to be below average in eastern areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, planting of main season millet and sorghum continues. Good rains in July improved agro-climatic conditions following a delayed and dry start to the June to September rainy season, and abundant precipitation is expected to continue through October. However, the recent rains resulted in heavy flooding in parts of Northern Darfur as well as parts of the south, and forecast above-average rainfall through October increases the risk of additional flooding (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). Furthermore, ongoing conflict continues to disrupt all agricultural operations. In South Sudan, harvesting of first season cereals is just beginning in southern bimodal rainfall areas of Western and Central Equatoria, which are key-producing regions. Despite delayed and below-average rains received at the beginning of the season, current vegetation conditions are near normal. In unimodal regions of the country, first season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and despite a delayed onset of the June to September rains, adequate temporal distribution is contributing to favourable growing conditions. However, there is concern in the Nile Sobat region located in the northeastern quadrant of the country where widespread seasonal flooding is underway. During mid-July to October, Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile, Northern Bhar el Ghazal, Warrap, parts of Central Equatoria, and other areas typically experience seasonal flooding and related displacement. Furthermore, land preparation is underway for second season maize and sorghum crops, and planting will begin in August. In Ethiopia, harvesting of Belg season maize finalized in July under mixed conditions as dry weather since the start of the season in February resulted in poor outcomes in the north and centre, with socio-economic concerns relating to prior active conflict contributing to poor outcomes in the north. Conversely, comparatively better rainfall outcomes in the west are expected to contribute to near-normal yields in these areas as well as average Belg production at the national level. Additionally, Meher season cereals are now in the vegetative to reproductive stage under mixed conditions, with delayed rains and socio-economic challenges causing concern in the north and east. Elsewhere in the centre and west, near to above-normal rainfall outcomes in recent months are contributing to favourable crop development. In Eritrea, sorghum and wheat planting is just beginning under favourable conditions. Above-average rainfall amounts through October are expected to be followed by a shift to below-average amounts through December (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6) In Yemen, main season sorghum and spring wheat crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and a combination of delayed and below-average rains and hot temperatures since the start of the season, as well as various challenges related to the protracted conflict, continue to negatively impact growing conditions. The antecedent March to May first rainy season was one of the driest on record and was 25 to 40 percent below average. Additionally, the current June to September second rainy season has been below average through late July, and temperatures have also been above average. The dry and hot conditions combined with high fuel and input costs constrained planted area and are expected to lower yields, except along some western coastal areas that have received comparatively better rains. While rainfall improvements are expected through October (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6), the short duration and high temperatures will likely limit crop recovery, and high intensity rains could result in flooding.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, harvesting of Gu season maize and sorghum crops, which account for 60 percent of total cereal output, is just beginning. Conditions have been downgraded to poor due to the erratic temporal distribution of rains and generally dry and hot conditions for most of the season, except in May when torrential rains accounted for the majority of seasonal precipitation totals. As of early August, prolonged dry spells led to severe drought conditions across several regions, particularly Mudug, Nugaal, Bari, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Sanaag located in the north and northwest. Additionally, the country continues to be impacted by protracted conflict. Since 2022, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions have been the epicentre of sustained armed clashes between government forces and non-state groups. Armed clashes in Moqokori town of Hiraan region have recently intensified, resulting in increased displacement as well as compromised water sources and supply routes. In unimodal and major producing areas in the western half of Kenya (Rift Valley, Western, and Central regions), timely and abundant rains are supporting normal crop development. Land preparation is underway for main season rice, and planting will begin in August. In bimodal and marginal producing areas in the eastern half of the country, harvesting of long rains cereals is now underway, and conditions have been downgraded to poor in the east and northeast due to a combination of late plantings, periods of dry spells despite above-average amounts received for the March to May long rains season, and early cessation of rains. Conditions are comparatively better along the coast, including in Kwale, Kilifi, and parts of Lamu where crop recovery is still possible, but dry conditions remain a concern. In bimodal areas of central and southern Uganda, harvesting of first season cereals is complete or nearing completion under favourable conditions with adequate rains received following a delayed onset. In unimodal northern areas, dry concerns remain for crops in the vegetative to reproductive stage, with mostly below-average rainfall amounts received since June (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). Additionally, planting of second season maize is underway in the northwest, and delayed and below-normal rains are impacting seasonal progress. In Rwanda, vegetation conditions are near to above normal for the end of the harvesting season despite generally dry conditions during the mid-February through May long rains. However, localized areas in Bugesera, Gasabo, and Kamonyi located in the centre of the country have below-average biomass. In Burundi, the start of the mid-February through May long rains season was erratic and up to 40 percent below average in February and March, which affected crop germination and early development. A shift to above-average rains in April and May improved yields to near-average levels. However, there are pockets of below-average biomass in the southwest near Lake Tanganyika, and overall production for Season B cereals is expected to be below average. In the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of Masika season cereals is underway in bimodal areas along the north and northern coast. Overall conditions remain favourable, and harvesting activities are expected to finalize in August.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Above-average rains forecast in northern and western areas during August to October and below-average October to December rains in eastern East Africa
During recent weeks, from June 26th to July 25th, rainfall conditions were above average in southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, northwestern and southeastern South Sudan, and in central and southern areas of Sudan (Figure 1-left). Heavy rains caused flooding in Ar Rahad locality of southern Sudan, where approximately 110 houses were destroyed.
Seasonal rains in the northern and western areas of East Africa have been mixed, with above-average rains observed in central and western Sudan, western and southern Uganda, western Kenya, and southwestern Ethiopia. In contrast, moderate to severe rainfall deficits during June 1st to July 25th, ranging from 45 percent to less than 75 percent of average, occurred in northern and central Ethiopia, southeastern Sudan, much of South Sudan, northeastern Uganda, northwestern Kenya, and northwestern Somalia (Figure 1 middle-left). Below-average March to May rains and a late onset of the July to September season in northern and central-eastern Ethiopia have resulted in prolonged below-average surface water resources for pastoralists in northern and eastern areas and delayed opportunities for planting in eastern areas of Amhara and Tigray regions, where Kiremt rains are relatively short and mainly occur during July and August. In South Sudan and Sudan, there has been a slow establishment of the season with a delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall, which has disrupted planting activities. June was marked by below-average rains, followed by some improvement in early July, and a return to below-average conditions in mid-July. Rainfall totals for June 1st to July 25th were significantly below average and ranked the lowest on a 44-year CHIRPS record in southeastern Sudan and northwestern South Sudan. In northeastern Uganda, below-average rains in June and July are likely to affect overall crop production.
Conditions are expected to improve in late July to mid-August across some of these rainfall deficit areas. Based on July 31st CHIRPS-GEFS and ECMWF forecasts, above-average rains are forecast across western and northern areas of Ethiopia, northern Uganda, southeastern Sudan, and South Sudan. The SubC multi-model forecast predicts above-average rains across Uganda and western and northwestern Kenya.
Long range forecasts from the NMME, C3S, and WMO (Figure 1 middle-right) multi-model ensembles indicate a high likelihood of above-average rainfall from August to October across western and northern East Africa, raising concerns for flooding in flood-prone areas of Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan. In line with forecast above-average rains, and current high water levels in upstream lakes and rivers, flood risk in South Sudan remains high, and is expected to surpass 2024 levels at times. Based on a report by OCHA, about 80,000 people are already affected by stagnant floodwaters in Unity and Jonglei states in northern and eastern South Sudan. A FEWS NET assessment of the VIIRS Flood Mapping Product identified that after increases in flooded areas in recent months and the higher rainfall received in July, more areas were inundated in July 2025 than in any previous July in that data record. A forecast which uses these VIIRS observations and NASA forecasts indicates that South Sudan flood levels in September to October 2025 will be similar to 2024.
The NMME, C3S, and WMO models predict hotter-than-normal temperatures in eastern East Africa during August to October. These conditions are likely to increase atmospheric water demand and soil moisture loss. Although March to May 2025 long rains were above average, higher-than-normal temperatures in June and July led to rapid deterioration of rangeland vegetation conditions, as observed from below-average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies. Forecast above-normal temperatures across eastern East Africa during this period are likely to rapidly degrade vegetation and speed evaporation of surface water resources before onset of the OND short rains.
During October to December (OND) 2025, below-average rains are expected in eastern East Africa. These are associated with forecasts indicating moderate chances of La Niña (a 49 percent chance, according to the CPC/IRI) and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions developing. Dynamical models also agree on high chances (> 50 percent) of below-average OND rains (Figure 1-right). There are early indications of- and increasing confidence in- negative IOD conditions developing (and negative rainfall impacts), based on Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) observations in late July. Updated forecasts and observations will need to be closely watched as these become available, as established drivers will increase confidence. Warming trends in the Indo-Pacific Ocean ‘Warm Pool’ region can promote La Niña-like Pacific SST gradient conditions, even if Nino3.4 region SST are moderately cool. These outlooks raise concerns about prolonged dry, pasture conditions and poor Deyr/Short Rains crop production if forecasts of below-average OND 2025 rains materialize.
Figure 1. Recent precipitation anomaly, season precipitation anomaly outlook, and 3-month probabilistic forecasts for precipitation.
Left and middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the percent of average precipitation for June 26th to July 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for July. The middle-left panel shows the percent of average precipitation for June 1st to August 10th, 2025, using preliminary data for July and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from July 26th. Middle-right and right: WMO probabilistic forecasts for August to October 2025 and October to December 2025 precipitation terciles, based on models initialized in July, from the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in eastern Liberia, southern Ghana, central and southern Togo, southern Benin, and Nigeria, while planting and development continue in Guinea, western Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, planting of second season maize and rice is underway in Nigeria. Along the Gulf of Guinea, a timely start to the rainfall season in March and adequate precipitation amounts through early June supported crop establishment and development in most areas.
Along the Sahel, planting and development of main season cereals continues in all regions, including in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. Between mid-June and mid-July, severe rainfall deficits and dry spells of more than 11 days occurred in northwestern Senegal and northwestern Chad. While growing conditions are currently adequate in both countries and expected to improve in Chad with the forecast rains, the deficit in Senegal is expected to persist through early August, requiring close monitoring in the coming weeks (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9).
Throughout West Africa, agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable as conducive weather outcomes this season have supported planting and establishment of cereal crops, and conditions in western Senegal, southern Mauritania, central Chad, and northern Togo have recovered from previous concerns relating to delayed rains and dry conditions. While moderate deficits were recorded in some areas, crop water requirements are generally being met. Average to above-average rainfall is forecast through October along the Sahel. Conversely, below-average rains are forecast across the south, particularly along the coast of Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, and Ghana, and root zone soil moisture is expected to be below normal in August across the southern coastal areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9).
Ongoing conflict continues to affect agricultural activities in central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northeastern Nigeria, the Lac region in Chad, the Far North and southwestern regions in Cameroon, and the Central African Republic, and socio-economic issues relating to inter-communal violence continue in northwestern Nigeria, particularly in Katsina, Sokoto, and Zamfara states. Regarding desert locust outbreaks, adult groups remained in Niger during June, and scattered adults were present in Mauritania, though they do not pose a significant threat to ongoing agricultural production. Forecasts suggest that adult groups and small swarms from the central Sahara may migrate towards Chad, Niger, Mali, and Mauritania. Summer breeding may increase in western Chad, northern Niger, northern Mali, and Mauritania, requiring control efforts.
Regional Outlook: Dry conditions over western and southern portions of West Africa and favorable conditions in the Sahel are forecast to continue into August
Rainfall between June 26th and July 25th was below average in many western and southern areas of West Africa (Figure 1-left). Largest deficits were observed in Senegal, southern Mali, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, southern Benin, and western Nigeria. Rainfall totals in these regions ranged from 30 percent to less than 75 percent of average.
In contrast, rainfall in the northern Sahelian zone and some eastern areas was above average, supporting crops and pasture conditions. These favorable rains are reflected in the average to above-average vegetation conditions, as indicated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies. However, high rainfall also led to flooding and fatalities. In eastern Nigeria, torrential rains in late July triggered flash floods that displaced approximately 2,000 people and killed 11 people (OCHA).
According to the CHIRPS-GEFS and ECMWF forecasts from July 30th, below-average rains are expected across many southern and western areas in late July to early August. In line with below-average rains forecast in southern areas, and May-July rainfall deficits (Figure 1 middle-left), the NASA soil moisture probabilistic forecast shows high chances of below-normal root zone soil moisture in August across southern coastal areas (Figure 1 right). This prolonged dryness, erratic distribution, and below-average seasonal rainfall totals raise concern for rainfed crops in reproductive to maturation stages.
In many southern and central areas, longer-range forecasts from the NMME, WMO (Figure 1 middle-right), and C3S multi-model ensembles indicate a high probability (60% to 80%) of below-average rainfall from August to October. These deficits could hinder crop recovery and reduce yields, particularly in regions already affected by earlier rainfall shortages. Above-average rains received in the Sahel in July are forecast to continue into September, supporting an extended growing period and improving crop and pasture outcomes.
Figure 1. Recent precipitation anomaly, season precipitation anomaly outlook, a 3-month probabilistic forecast for precipitation, and seasonal soil moisture forecast.
Left and middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the percent of average precipitation for June 26th to July 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for July. The middle-left panel shows the percent of average precipitation for May 1st to August 10th, 2025, using preliminary data for July and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from July 26th. Middle-right: Probabilistic forecast for August to October 2025 precipitation tercile (July initial conditions), derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models. Colors indicate the probability of each category, based on 114 ensemble members and a 1991-2020 baseline. Right: A root zone soil moisture anomaly forecast for August 2025 from NASA’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) Forecast model, based on July conditions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, wheat harvesting finalized in all regions under mixed conditions. Across North Africa, early season dry conditions negatively affected yields for rainfed crops, and despite rainfall improvements from March to May, it was too late for significant recovery in many areas. Dry and hot conditions this season resulted in poor outcomes across Morocco, northwest and northcentral Algeria, and northeastern Libya. Additionally, wetter than normal conditions and flooding received in December 2024 and January 2025 hampered yield prospects in northwestern Libya. Conversely, yields are expected to be near average across central and northeastern Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt. Combined cereal production for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt is expected to be 1.5 percent below average in 2025.
In Morocco, rainfall amounts were 60 percent below average for the start of the winter season between December 2024 and February 2025, particularly in the main producing Fes‑Bouleman, Gharb, Grand Casablanca, and Tanger Tetouan provinces located in the north and northwest. This is the second consecutive year where drought conditions are expected to result in significant declines for cropping outcomes. Last year, wheat production was 40 percent below average, and the 2025 wheat output is expected to be 27 percent below average. While improved rains in March and April in major producing areas restored soil moisture levels and slightly improved prospects, it was too late for significant crop recovery. In Algeria, early season dry spells and high temperatures from November 2024 through February 2025 negatively affected crops in the northwest. Conversely, rainfall improvements in April and May in the northeast, including in the main producing provinces of Constantine, Guelma, Skikda, and Oum El Bouaghi, improved soil moisture and resulted in adequate water availability during the critical flowering and grain filling stages. Overall wheat production is expected to be 9 percent above average, and overall cereal production is expected to be 12 percent above average for 2025. Additionally, the government has provided more local storage facilities and harvesting equipment to support the cereal harvest and grain delivery. In Libya, wetter than average conditions and flooding in December 2024 and January 2025 negatively impacted crops in key cereal-producing regions in the northwest, while drier than normal conditions this season impacted crops in the northeast. As a result, cereal production is expected to be 23 percent below average. In Egypt, yields are typically stable as cereals are primarily irrigated. This year, the provision of subsidized seeds led to an increase in planted area, and wheat production is expected to be slightly above average. Furthermore, summer-planted maize and rice crops continue to develop under favourable conditions. Planting of Nili season (Nile flood) rice crops is now underway, and while the start of the season is slightly delayed in the Nile Delta, irrigation use should compensate for the delay.
Across the Middle East, poor yield outcomes resulted across Lebanon, Syria, northern Iraq, and central and eastern Iran due to dry conditions, and ongoing conflict contributed to agricultural disruptions in Lebanon and Syria. Conversely, yields are expected to be near average across central and southern Iraq and north and western Iran. Additionally, rice cultivation continues in Iran under favourable conditions.
In Syria, rainfall amounts were 54 percent below average between November 2024 and April 2025, the lowest level recorded since the 2013/14 season. Most agricultural areas are under stress, particularly in major food-producing governorates such as Al-Hasakeh, Aleppo, and Ar-Raqqa. This year, only 40 percent of planned farmland was cultivated, and conditions have been downgraded to failure due to well below-average yields expected. Pastoral systems have also been affected by water scarcity and rising prices, forcing herders to sell livestock or abandon livelihoods. Fourteen consecutive years of protracted conflict and related socio-economic disruptions have also degraded the agricultural sector and critical infrastructure, leading to displacement and limited access to inputs and extension services. While many displaced individuals have returned home since the fall of the Assad Regime in December 2024, this year, localized conflicts in key northern producing regions negatively impacted production, and the situation was compounded by the most severe drought in 36 years. Furthermore, from late June through early July, wildfires severely impacted northern Lattakia governorate located in the northwest. The fires affected critical infrastructure and about 100 square kilometres of both forested and agricultural lands, destroying over 150,000 square meters of agricultural land and 117 irrigation systems. In Iraq, while drought conditions impacted wheat yields in some northern parts of the country, including Dahuk, northern Ninewa, and parts of Erbil, final conditions are generally favourable. Wheat production is expected to be 5.12 million tonnes, a slight decline from last year’s level of 5.4 million tonnes but a 10 percent increase compared to the average due to government provision of agricultural supplies, including improved seeds and fertilizer, as well as the use of modern irrigation techniques. The Ministry of Agriculture declared that the country has achieved self-sufficiency in wheat for a third year in a row. However, the country is contending with a deepening water shortage due to this year’s drought, compounded by the construction of upstream dams in Turkey and Iran. This year, there has been a ban on rice cultivation due to the severe water crisis and sharp decline in water flows. The government is instead encouraging the cultivation of less water-intensive crops such as wheat, barley, and vegetables, along with the use of modern irrigation techniques to conserve supplies. In Iran, end of season conditions are favourable in the north and east, while dry conditions contributed to yield declines in the centre and west. Winter cereal production is forecast at 21 million tonnes and 5 percent below average due to early season dry conditions and high input costs. Rice crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions, including in the main producing Mazandaran and Gilan provinces.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Harvesting for the main season finalized in June with improved prospects following the 2024 drought-affected season. Despite impacts of dry spells and storms in some locations, generally improved weather prospects for the November 2024 to June 2025 summer cropping season are expected to result in near-average regional production of 38.5 million tonnes, representing a 20 percent increase compared to the previous year. Large increases are expected in South Africa, the largest producer and exporter of Southern Africa, as well as in Zimbabwe and Zambia.
Wheat crops are now in the vegetative to reproductive stage across Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho, and harvesting will begin in September. Growing conditions remain favourable across all countries.
In Zambia, harvesting of the 2025 main season cereals concluded in June, and while dry conditions negatively impacted yields in some areas, generally adequate weather conditions and good rains, particularly from January to April 2025, had an overall positive impact on yields. Total production is expected to be 20 percent above average and more than twice last year’s reduced level, which was impacted by the driest agricultural season in more than forty years. Additionally, while wheat conditions improved from mid to late-season, production is expected to be below average as delays in the summer harvest and limited irrigation water availability resulted in a reduced planted area. In Zimbabwe, there was a significant increase in the area under wheat cultivation this year due to increased government support in the form of infrastructure investments to ensure access to electricity for irrigation. In both Zambia and Zimbabwe, water availability has generally improved compared to last season, with increased water levels of Lake Kariba dam, which is currently at 23 percent capacity. Despite the increase, load shedding remains a challenge in both countries for irrigation. In Malawi, the total 2024/25 cereal production estimate is pending official release, but USDA forecasts suggest maize production of 1.8 million tonnes, which is near average but a large increase compared to 2024’s level of 1.4 million tonnes. In South Africa, cereal production for the 2024/25 main season is expected to be 18 million tonnes, representing a 13 percent increase compared to the 2024 level. For winter wheat, the planted area is estimated to be near average, and growing conditions are favourable. Over the winter rainfall area, near-normal rains received since early June are supporting the dryland production of wheat. Over the summer rainfall region, widespread near-normal rainfall during the 2024/25 summer season resulted in above-normal soil moisture and water levels in river systems, supporting normal irrigation and wheat crop development. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of second season maize finalized in May in the centre and southeast and is currently nearing completion in the north and east, with favourable yields expected. However, production of second season maize crops is expected to be below average in the north due to low precipitation amounts received and in the centre due to widespread flooding in March and April, which hindered harvesting activities. In Kivu region located in the east, ongoing conflict intensified at the end of January and has resulted in displacements and land abandonment, pushing agricultural workers to seek employment in local mines. While some households have been able to return, previous displacement continues to have a direct effect on agricultural production, which is expected to be drastically reduced in localized areas most affected by the recent spread of conflict. The conflict has also disrupted trade flows between urban areas. Additionally, planting of main season cereals continues across the north, centre, and west under favourable conditions.
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, wheat harvesting finalized in June in Pakistan and is nearing completion in Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Conditions remain mostly favourable, except along the northern rainfed wheat belt and central areas of Afghanistan, where dry and hot conditions reduced yields. Spring wheat continues to develop in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia for harvest from August. Dry concerns remain in most areas, except across the main producing regions of northern Kazakhstan, where growing conditions are favourable despite some surface drying and localized low moisture. Additionally, extreme drought conditions are currently present in parts of Afghanistan, south-central Kazakhstan, southeastern Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Forecast dry and hot conditions across most areas into early 2026 could negatively impact planting operations for the 2025-26 winter wheat season (See Regional Outlook Pg. 15).
In Kazakhstan, winter wheat harvesting is underway with favourable outcomes expected. Spring wheat was sown in May at a near-average level of 10 million hectares. In the main producing northern half of the country, high temperatures were recorded between December 2024 and February 2025, and low snow cover was observed in Kostanay, Akmola, and North Kazakhstan provinces. Despite some surface drying and localized low moisture, overall soil moisture conditions are adequate in these areas, and growing conditions are favourable. Conversely, drier than normal conditions remain a concern in the minor-producing southern regions, and extreme drought conditions are present in the south-central region (See Regional Outlook Pg. 15). For 2025, total wheat production is estimated to be 15 million tonnes and near average. In Afghanistan, the 2024/25 wheat season was categorized by temporally erratic and below-average rains, particularly in the north, Central Highlands, west, and south. Cumulative precipitation during the October 2024 to May 2025 wet season was below average, particularly at the beginning of the season from October to December 2024. However, adequate rainfall distribution supported sowing and crop establishment of both winter and spring wheat, resulting in an above-average planted area. Conversely, hot and dry conditions with erratic rains during March and April 2025 resulted in water deficits and a prolonged dry spell that impacted flowering and grain filling of rainfed crops, particularly along the major producing wheat belt in the north and northwest and in some central areas. The extent and severity have worsened since April, and conditions are comparable to the 2018 drought. Precipitation deficits continued into early July, with most provinces experiencing below-average rainfall, except for Farah and Hilmand provinces located in the west and south. Extreme drought conditions are currently present due to a combination of antecedent dry conditions from October 2024 to March 2025, near-record low precipitation during April and May, and above-average surface temperatures, which compound the dry conditions. Soil moisture levels are also critically low in many regions and are negatively affecting root zone moisture availability, and vegetation conditions have deteriorated significantly in Badghis, Baghlan, Faryab, Samangan, and Sar-e-Pul provinces located in the north-centre of the country. Additionally, snowpack has been persistently below average during most of the season, and Snow Water Equivalent levels are at record lows in most basins, particularly in the north and northeastern basins where levels have been close to record minimums throughout the season. Streamflow has also been in the lowest 25th percentile since April, including in the Kunduz River and Helmand Rivers, which bring water from central areas to the north and southwest. As of early July, the Lake Kajiki water level was 5 meters lower than last year due to below-normal recharge and management responses to increased water demand. Rainfed areas have been significantly impacted by the abnormal dry and hot conditions this year, and most are showing low yield and production compared to average and compared to the previous year, except for some areas with higher elevations and colder temperatures. Conversely, farmers in irrigated areas were able to mitigate the surface water deficits with the use of groundwater as a cost-effective substitute. While there was a notable expansion in the irrigated wheat area, overall wheat production is expected to be below average. Conditions also remain mixed for second season maize and rice crop development due to an ongoing lack of surface water. Growing conditions are generally favourable for maize, while there is concern for rice development as cultivation requires significant water resources. Despite a lack of surface water, farmers continue to cultivate rice with groundwater supplementation as a cheap and easily available substitute. Furthermore, overall pasture conditions are poor, except in some areas that receive monsoon precipitation, and many pastoralists are struggling to feed their animals. Inadequate livestock health is leading to a decrease in livestock prices, and some herders are beginning to sell or reduce the number of animals they own as a result. The 2025 monsoon season began in May, which typically impacts southeast and eastern areas of the country bordering Pakistan but can extend into other regions. Monsoon rains are expected to bring near to above-normal rainfall to these areas through October and could help to replenish groundwater reserves. Conversely, below-normal precipitation is forecast to continue in northern areas. ENSO neutral conditions are also expected to result in below-average cumulative precipitation and high temperatures through December 2025 (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 15).
In Mongolia, the area planted for wheat is estimated at an average level. While generally average to above-average April to June rains supported crop establishment and early development, drier than normal conditions could negatively impact yields in Selenge and Tov provinces located in the main producing central region, as well as in Bayan-Olgii located in a localized and minor producing area of the west. In Pakistan, below-average October 2024 to May 2025 precipitation resulted in crop losses in the rainfed Barani areas, which account for 20 percent of total plantings, and some minor irrigated northern areas. However, yields were above average in the main irrigated areas. Overall wheat production is expected to be 29 million tonnes and 5 percent above average. Additionally, planting of Kharif (summer) season maize and rice continues under generally favourable conditions. The ongoing June to September Southwest Monsoon season continues to bring heavy rains and flash flooding, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province located in the northwest, as well as in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan provinces. Furthermore, a heatwave in Gilgit Baltistan region located in the north accelerated glacier melting, resulting in flooding and soil erosion that damaged agriculture and disrupted water supplies. The recent flooding has not significantly impacted ongoing planting for the Kharif season but is expected to continue as the monsoon season progresses (See Regional Outlook Pg. 15). Close monitoring is required, with medium-level flooding expected in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Regional Outlook: Afghanistan drought, monsoon floods, and drier and hotter-than-normal conditions in southern Kazakhstan
In recent weeks, conditions were drier and hotter than average across southern Kazakhstan and southern Kyrgyzstan, while monsoon season rains were above average in Pakistan and eastern and southeastern Afghanistan (Figure 1 top-left). Temperatures have been above average in recent months across most of central-southern Asia, and this pattern has continued into summer. Record-high temperatures for late June to July occurred in Tajikistan, northeastern and central-southern Afghanistan, southeastern Uzbekistan, and in portions of southern Kazakhstan.
Heavy rainfall triggered flooding, fatalities, and damages in urban areas and farmland in Pakistan and eastern and southeastern Afghanistan during late June and July. According to Pakistan’s National Drought Management Agency, the intense rains killed 295 people and injured 700 between June 26th and July 31st. Most of the fatalities were in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Punjab, CHIRPS data shows that seasonal rainfall totals through July 25th are the highest on the 45-year record (Figure 1 top-right). Seasonal forecasts indicate above-normal rainfall during August and September in Pakistan, increasing flood risk. Flooding will likely continue to be a major issue in Pakistan, based on the July 31st ECMWF subseasonal forecast of above-average rainfall during mid-late August.
Extreme drought conditions are ongoing in Afghanistan and portions of south-central Kazakhstan, southeastern Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, due to near-record low precipitation during April to July 2025 (Figure 1 top-right), highly above-average temperatures, and below-average precipitation across southern Asia during October 2024 to March 2025. This situation has severely impacted the groundwater in Afghanistan and parts of South and Central Asia. Remote districts of Afghanistan in the Kandahar, Helmand, and Zabul provinces are also significantly impacted by groundwater extraction for agricultural purposes. Droughts and climate change-induced displacement have been reported in Afghanistan during the early months of 2025.
Severe hydrologic drought conditions in and near Afghanistan are evident from the extreme low regional snow water amounts since May– the lowest since at least 2001 (Figure 1 bottom-left)– and from earlier-than-usual declines in streamflow across most drainage areas. This is the sixth year in a row with below-average snow water amounts. Substantial groundwater extraction has likely occurred to support second season crops and to provide water for the livestock sector and other industrial and socio-economic needs in the country.
Forecast below-normal seasonal precipitation into early 2026 raise concerns about possible adverse conditions during the planting and crop establishment period for the 2025-2026 winter wheat season and prolonged hydrologic and agricultural drought conditions (Figure 1 bottom-right). Models point to drier and hotter-than-normal conditions across much of central and southern Asia. Current widespread below-average vegetation is indicated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) conditions. Hot and dry conditions are expected to rapidly diminish rangeland and surface water resources.
Figure 1. Top-Left and middle: CHC Early Estimates. These compare recent precipitation totals to historical CHIRPS, for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the difference from average for June 26th to July 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for July. The middle shows a seasonal outlook, from April 1st to August 10th, by also including a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from July 26th. Top-right: Precipitation rank map. Red and blue hues indicate where the April 1st to July 25th, 2025 total is in the top 3 driest or wettest years on the CHIRPS 45-year record. Bottom-left: Variations in regional Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (mm) for a region surrounding Afghanistan (60-76E, 32-39N). The dotted line indicates average SWE (2001-2024 period), the blue line shows SWE for Oct. 2023 - Sep. 2024, and the red line shows SWE for Oct. 2024 to July 30th, 2025. From NASA, using SWE estimates from the FLDAS Central Asia model. Bottom- middle and right: NMME model probabilistic forecasts for August to October 2025 and November 2025 to January 2026 precipitation tercile, based on July initial conditions, 124 ensemble members, and a 1991-2020 baseline. From CHC NMME.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, dry-season rice is in the final development stage under generally favourable conditions due to sufficient irrigation water supply, and harvesting is now underway. However, dry concerns remain in Brunei and are expected to continue through the end of the season. The total planted area is the same as the previous year. In northern Southeast Asia, wet-season rice is in the tillering to maturing stages, and overall conditions are favourable due to an early start to the rainy season and adequate precipitation received. However, the total planted area is expected to decrease slightly compared to the previous year. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, growing conditions remain favourable.
In Indonesia, July is the fourth month of dry-season rice planting, but the planted area remains low as farmers are still preparing the land following the wet-season harvest. Total planted area is 3.7 million hectares, which is slightly below the previous dry season. Growing conditions are favourable for crops in the early vegetative stages due to sufficient irrigation water availability in most areas. Harvesting of earlier planted crops is now underway, and the yield is favourable due to sufficient water and sunlight received during the growing period. Rainfall remains high in some areas and is starting to decline in others. In Malaysia, planting of dry-season rice finalized in July, and approximately 49 percent of the cultivated areas have been harvested. Conditions remain favourable for rice growth and harvesting activities, and most regions recorded normal rainfall amounts, supporting stable field operations. Land preparation of wet-season rice is underway, and planting is expected to begin once conditions become suitable. In Brunei, most dry-season crops are in the early reproductive and ripening stages due to planting delays, though about 10 percent of the planted area is ready for harvest. Low precipitation remains a concern, and the dry conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the season.
In the Philippines, wet-season rice planted in April and May is now in the maturing stage, and overall conditions are favourable due to sufficient rains received during cultivation. Yields are expected to be higher compared to the same period in the previous year. In Thailand, the planted area for wet-season rice is expected to decrease compared to the previous year due to a decline in the rice price. About 70 percent of the total area has been planted, and crops are now in the tillering stage under favourable conditions. Sufficient rainfall was received from May through July, and farmers have enough water for cultivation. Additionally, wet-season rice production is expected to increase compared to the previous year despite a reduced planted area. In northern Viet Nam, dry-season (winter-spring) rice is now fully harvested, and the yield at the national scale is estimated at 6.43 tons per hectare, which is 0.7 percent lower than the last year due to less conducive weather outcomes as well as the outbreak of pests and sheath blight disease in some areas of the North Central region. Wet-season (summer-autumn) rice is in the seeding and tillering stages under favourable conditions with adequate irrigation water availability. In the south, planting progress for wet-season (summer-autumn) rice is ahead of schedule compared to the same period last year due to more conducive weather and widespread heavy rainfall. Crops are mostly in the young panicle forming to grain filling stages under favourable conditions. In lowland areas of Laos, wet-season rice is in the planting stage, and planting progress has reached 559 thousand hectares, representing 73 percent of the national production plan of 766 thousand hectares. This year, an early start to the rainy season with heavy precipitation resulted in later planting compared to last year. However, weather conditions and irrigation water supply are currently favourable for crops in the early growing stage, with adequate rains received. In upland areas, planting progress has reached 85 percent of the national plan, and growing conditions are favourable. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice reached 1.7 million hectares, representing 28 percent of the national plan of 6.04 million hectares, and most of the planted crops are in the delta region. Planting progress is slightly faster than last year due to adequate weather, and growing conditions are favourable for crops in the early tillering stage. However, prolonged and escalating conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities, resulting in decreased agricultural employment, reduced access to farmland and productive assets, and limited availability of agricultural inputs such as seeds and fertilizer. In Cambodia, planting of wet-season rice has reached 2.4 million hectares, representing 81 percent of the national plan. Earlier planted crops are in the young panicle forming to grain filling stages under favourable conditions. This year, harvesting progress is expected to be faster than last year due to an earlier start to the rainfall season and higher precipitation amounts.
In Sri Lanka, Yala season maize (10 percent of annual maize output) and Yala season rice (35 to 40 percent of annual rice output) crops continue to develop under favourable conditions. Planted area for Yala season rice is above average due to high domestic prices as well as government support in the form of fertilizer subsidies. In Nepal, planting and development of main season rice (the country’s main staple crop) and maize continue under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvesting of summer/Kharif season maize (15 percent of annual maize output) finalized in July, while harvesting of Aus season rice (10 percent of annual rice output) is just beginning under favourable conditions. Additionally, planting conditions remain favourable for both Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice output) and main season sorghum. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize and rice crops, which comprise 90 percent of annual cereal production, continue to develop under favourable conditions, and harvesting will begin in August. Seasonal rains began on time in mid-April, with average to above-average and well-distributed amounts in May and June that supported planting, establishment, and early development. Abundant rains continued through early July, particularly along the west coast, and moisture conditions remain adequate with some fields showing high biomass levels. A forecast shift to near-average amounts through September could support the later stages of crop development and the growth of late-planted crops.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Primera season Maize conditions as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, planting operations for the Primera season began up to a month late in June due to delayed and irregularly distributed rains, particularly for small-scale farmers. Replanting efforts are resulting in mixed vegetation conditions, and conditions are comparatively better for newly planted crops in the early vegetative stages. However, there are ongoing dry and hot concerns across Guatemala and southern Honduras, and most areas are contending with the development of pests and diseases. Elsewhere, growing conditions are generally favourable following replanting efforts as well as improved rainfall distribution in El Salvador and Nicaragua.
July was categorized by drier-than-normal conditions across most northern areas of Central America, particularly across Guatemala and around the Gulf of Fonseca (eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwestern Nicaragua). Conversely, July precipitation was near to above average in northern Honduras and southern Nicaragua. Reduced rains are expected to continue through early August across most rainfall deficit areas, which could affect Primera season crop development, particularly in the Dry Corridor and in areas where irrigation systems are unavailable. High temperatures could also compound dry conditions and lead to the further proliferation of pests and diseases (See Regional Outlook Pg. 20). According to longer-range forecasts, rainfall is expected to be generally average through October across much of Central America, except in parts of northern Guatemala and northern Honduras, where drier than normal conditions are expected. Additionally, temperatures are expected to be hotter than normal across most areas, and the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity (See Regional Outlook Pg. 20).
In El Salvador, planting for Primera season maize (80 percent of annual maize output) was delayed by about a month due to an erratic and dry start to the rainy season in May, particularly for small-scale farmers. Improved rains in June facilitated planting and promoted adequate germination and crop development, despite the onset of the canicular period that causes a temporary reduction in rainfall from mid-July to early August. Additionally, in some localized coastal areas, on-time planting was followed by torrential rains and flooding in June that damaged maize crops and necessitated replanting. Forecast average rains through October could benefit crop maturation and harvesting (See Regional Outlook Pg. 20). In Guatemala, delayed, erratic, and below-average rains as well as high temperatures at the start of the season resulted in planting delays for the Primera season by 20 to 40 days, particularly in areas of the north, central zone, Dry Corridor, and Altiplano and for small-scale farmers. The conditions are expected to negatively impact yields, particularly in the north and northwest, and delay planting activities for the Postrera season, which typically begins in September. Rainfall in July was irregular and below average across most parts of the country, with the northern areas recording the most significant deficits. In the centre, more than half of the cropland areas are showing below normal vegetation conditions. While biomass is comparatively better in the south, limited rainfall since late June is likely to worsen crop health. In Honduras, little to no rainfall received during the early planting stages resulted in planting delays and seed losses, primarily in subsistence areas. In the south, rainfall during June and July was below average and irregularly distributed, and temperatures have been above average. Below-normal vegetation conditions are present in the main maize-producing areas of Olancho and El Paraíso, primarily due to delayed resowing activities, and parts of northern Choluteca are also showing low biomass. Additionally, on June 17, heavy rains impacted Ocotepeque department located in the west, triggering flooding in vulnerable agricultural areas, primarily for banana fields. Land preparation is underway for second season rice in the north, and planting will begin next month. In Nicaragua, growing conditions are generally favourable as the use of irrigation has helped to maintain adequate crop moisture levels despite periods with erratically distributed rains.
In Haiti, harvesting of Printemps season cereals continues under generally favourable agro-climatic conditions as above-average rainfall in July, combined with the use of irrigation, improved soil moisture levels following dry conditions in June. Seasonal rainfall performance has been average, though some southern areas remain below average, and erratic precipitation and high temperatures negatively affected the regular development of crops in localized areas. Additionally, maize and paddy outputs are expected to be below average due to a combination of deteriorating security conditions, which caused limited access to agricultural inputs and high production costs, as well as high precipitation in April, which hindered planting and early crop development in the north and the main producing Artibonite department. Prolonged violence continues to disrupt agricultural production and has resulted in increased displacement and insecurity across the country. Furthermore, planting of Été season maize and beans is just beginning under favourable conditions with above-average precipitation amounts recorded in July. A return to below-average rainfall is expected during August and could persist through October (See Regional Outlook Pg. 20), potentially reducing the planted area. However, the abundant rains received in July, in combination with the use of irrigation, should support cropping activities during the early phenological stages. In Cuba, planting and development of main season rice and maize is underway, and conditions have been upgraded to favourable as recent rains have mitigated prior dry concerns since the start of the season in April (See Regional Outlook Pg. 20).
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Dry conditions to continue in northern Central America
During recent weeks, rainfall was below average across parts of northern and eastern Central America. Rainfall totals from June 26th to July 25th were below average in Guatemala, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador, northern and central Nicaragua, and in portions of western and central Cuba and southwestern Haiti. The largest deficits were observed in Guatemala where rains were 45 percent to 75 percent of average (Figure 1 top-left). Deficits in these areas are expected to persist as the CHIRPS-GEFS (Figure 1 top-right) and ECMWF models forecast below-average rains across most areas of Central America in early August.
Due to observed rainfall deficits in April, May, and July, and if the forecasted below-average rains materialize, Primera seasonal totals from April 1st to August 10th will be below average in Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, and western Nicaragua (Figure 1 top-middle). In many of these areas, the Primera season has been marked by overall poor performance – erratic rains in April and May, above-average rainfall in June, and a return to below-average conditions in July. In contrast, in northern and eastern Nicaragua, as well as northern Honduras, above-average seasonal totals (125 percent to 150 percent) are likely for this period.
In Haiti, above-average July rainfall improved soil moisture conditions following a dry June. Seasonal performance has been average overall, though southern areas remain below average. For Haiti’s second season (August to October), forecasts from NMME (Figure 1 bottom-left), WMO, and C3S multi-model ensembles from early July suggest 40 to 60 chances of below-average rainfall.
The beginning of the Postrera season in Central America is expected to have average rainfall and above-normal temperatures. Seasonal forecasts from early July are not showing strong indications of abnormal rainfall performance, though some models predict below-normal rainfall in northern areas of Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras. There are moderate-to-high chances of highly above-average temperatures, especially across northern Central America and Caribbean areas (Figure 1 bottom-right).
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be above average, based on the Colorado State University (CSU) July forecast update. However, forecasts of stronger wind shear in the Caribbean region led CSU to reduce expected storm activity in that update. NOAA’s updated hurricane season forecast is anticipated in early August.
Figure 1. Recent and seasonal outlook precipitation anomalies, recent abnormally hot conditions, and 3-month probabilistic forecast for precipitation and very high 2m temperatures.
Top left and top-middle: CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average (1981-2024), for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the difference from average precipitation for June 26th to July 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for July. The top-middle panel shows the difference from average for April 1st to August 10th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for July and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from July 26th. Top-right: A 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast anomaly from July 31st, 2025. Bottom: NMME model probabilistic forecasts for August to October 2025 precipitation tercile (bottom-left) and very high (> 80th percentile) 2m temperatures (bottom-right), based on July initial conditions, 124 ensemble members, and a 1991-2020 baseline. From CHC NMME.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published August 7th, 2025.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.