Global Crop Monitor
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No. 40: Published January 5th 2026
Conditions as of January 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of January remain generally positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, most crops are in dormancy in the Northern Hemisphere, except in South Asia, where crops are still developing. For maize, global conditions are generally favorable, despite some regions experiencing exceptionally dry weather, especially in East Africa and other isolated areas. For rice, overall conditions are favourable; however, concerns persist due to earlier tropical storms in Southeast Asia and dry conditions in sections of Central America and the Caribbean and East Africa. For soybeans, hot and dry weather raises concerns in Argentina and Uruguay as Brazil begins its early harvest stages. The remaining crops are detailed in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
La Niña conditions were present in January 2026, but will likely return to neutral during February. There are increasing chances that an El Niño event will develop after that, potentially by August to October 2026. Global temperatures for 2025 were the third warmest on record. If El Niño conditions develop during 2026, these will likely have a warming effect on global temperatures.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of January 28th.
In North America, winter wheat faces mixed conditions due to several areas experiencing drought, and the potential damage from arctic air north of the snow line from winter storm Fern. In Canada, winter wheat conditions are mixed due to an extreme fall drought during sowing. In Mexico, the autumn-winter season crop is being sown under favourable conditions with an expected reduction in total sown area. In Europe, conditions are generally favourable in the EU, although recent cold spells could have resulted in minor frost kill damage in parts of central and eastern Europe, as well as in the Baltic states. In Türkiye, recent rainfall has improved soil moisture conditions for crops. In Ukraine, unusually cold weather with little to no snow cover in the southern, central, and parts of the eastern regions has led to possible winterkill conditions, especially for late-sown crops. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat conditions remain generally favourable, albeit with winterkill risks from recent cold weather and unfavourable sowing conditions. In Central Asia, winter wheat in Kazakhstan is under favourable conditions. Development continues in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan under favourable conditions. A poor start to the seasonal rains in Afghanistan has resulted in a below-average sown area. In South Asia, conditions are favourable in India with an increase in total sown area compared to last year and the five-year average. In Pakistan, conditions are favourable with a reduction in total sown area due to a late start to the season. In Nepal, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, sowing is continuing. In East Asia, winter wheat in China remains dormant under favourable conditions. In MENA, winter wheat is in the vegetative to reproductive stage. Rainfall improvement in December 2025 and January 2026 benefitted sown crops in many areas, resulting in favourable conditions for western Morocco, central and eastern Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, southwestern Syria, north and western Iraq, and much of Iran. However, delayed rains at the beginning of the season negatively impacted planting activities and continue to cause concern in eastern Morocco, western Algeria, Lebanon, much of Syria, and parts of Iran. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conflict remains a concern in Sudan. In Eritrea, harvesting of the main season wheat wraps up under favourable conditions. In Ethiopia, harvesting is wrapping up under mixed conditions due to dry weather in the central east. In Tanzania, conditions are mixed due to persistent dry weather. In South America, hot and dry weather in Chile has resulted in reduced yields as harvest wraps up.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of January 28th.
In South America, conditions are favourable as the harvesting of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) begins. There is a significant increase in total sown area compared to last year. Sowing of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is beginning with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last season. In Argentina, areas of high temperatures combined with low rainfall could potentially negatively impact yields of the early-planted crops (larger season), which are in the critical reproductive stage. The sowing of the late-planted crop (smaller season) is in the final stages, and its yields will depend on future rainfall. In Uruguay, dry conditions have impacted crops, especially the late-planted crops. In Central America & the Caribbean, the harvesting in Mexico of the spring-summer crop season (larger season) is wrapping up under favourable conditions. The autumn-winter season (smaller season) crops are finishing sowing. In Cuba, the second-season crop is under favourable conditions. Harvesting of the Segunda/Postrera season crop is wrapping up in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. In South Asia, the Rabi crop (smaller season) in India is under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, the Maha season crop (larger season) is under mixed conditions due to the impacts of Cyclone Ditwah. In Bangladesh, sowing of the Rabi/winter maize season crop is ongoing. In Southeast Asia, conditions are favourable in Indonesia due to adequate irrigation water as the sowing of the wet-season crop continues, while the harvesting of earlier sown crops begins. In the Philippines, dry-season maize is under mixed conditions due to the negative impacts of several recent typhoons. In Thailand, dry-season crops are under favourable conditions. In Viet Nam, the sowing of dry-season maize is ongoing in the northern region. In Myanmar, dry-season maize sowing is advancing under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, dry-season maize sowing is ongoing. In East Africa, harvesting of main-season crops is wrapping up in Ethiopia (Meher season), unimodal rainfall areas of central and northern South Sudan, Sudan, and Eritrea under mixed conditions. Harvesting of second-season crops is underway in Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania. In West Africa, harvesting of both main and second-season crops is wrapping up across all regions under generally favourable conditions. In Southern Africa, conditions are mostly favourable across the region, except in Angola due to ongoing dry conditions, northeastern Mozambique, where conflict in Cabo Delgado is disrupting crop development, and in southern Zimbabwe and central and southern Mozambique due to heavy rains and flooding. In South Africa, conditions are favourable with an estimated increase in total sown area compared to last year.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of January 28th.
In Central & South Asia, transplanting of the Rabi and Summer crops (smaller seasons) in India is ongoing in the eastern and southern parts of the country under favourable conditions. In Pakistan, harvesting of the Kharif (summer) season rice is now complete, and end-of-season conditions are favourable despite significant flooding impacts from the 2025 monsoon season. In Bangladesh, harvesting of the Aman crop (medium season) is wrapping up under favourable conditions as the transplanting of the Boro crop (largest season) is ongoing. In Sri Lanka, Cyclone Ditwah impacted the country in late November 2025, bringing severe flooding, landslides, and damage to the Maha season crop (largest season). In Nepal, harvesting of the main season rice is wrapping up under mostly favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, the sowing of wet-season rice in Indonesia is expanding, supported by significant rainfall, as harvest begins for earlier-sown crops. In Malaysia, sowing of wet-season rice is nearing completion under generally favourable conditions despite irregular rains received in January. Harvesting is underway in some areas. In Brunei, the harvesting of wet-season rice has begun. In Viet Nam, the sowing of dry-season rice is ongoing in the Mekong River Delta under favourable conditions; however, higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and saline intrusion over the next few months are risks for crop establishment and early growth. In Thailand, dry-season rice is in the tillering stage with an estimated decrease in total sown area compared to last year due to earlier flooding and lower prices. In the Philippines, conditions are mixed for dry-season rice due to excessive rain during vegetative stages and reports of pests and diseases. In Myanmar, sowing of dry-season rice is ongoing. In Cambodia, sowing dry-season rice is ongoing with a decrease compared to the previous year due to the presence of conflict in the northwest region. In the Americas, conditions are favourable in Brazil, with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, conditions are mixed due to dry weather and recent cold nighttime temperatures. In Mexico, sowing of the autumn-winter crop is ongoing. In Cuba, sowing of second-season rice is ongoing. In Honduras, harvesting of second-season rice continues. In Haiti, second-season rice is under favourable conditions. In MENA, the Nili season (Nile flood) rice crop develops in Egypt. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions remain mixed due to conflict in parts of Mali and Nigeria, dry weather in East Africa, and flooding in Mozambique.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of January 28th.
In South America, conditions are favourable in Brazil as the harvest is in the early stages, while the majority of the crop is in the vegetative to reproductive stages. An increase in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Argentina, sowing is wrapping up for the late-planted crop (smaller season), as the early-planting crop (larger season) enters the critical reproductive stages. Conditions are generally favourable; however, high temperatures and insufficient rainfall in southern Córdoba, La Pampa, and San Luis are raising concerns for yields. In Uruguay, dry weather has caused water stress in the crops. In Africa, conditions are favourable in South Africa; however, additional rainfall will be needed in the western regions to maintain good crop growth. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year and the five-year average.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
La Niña conditions were present in January 2026. La Niña conditions will likely subside during the next month or so. According to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook, ENSO conditions will most likely be neutral during February to April 2026 (70 percent chance). There are increasing chances that an El Niño event will develop after that, potentially by August to October 2026 (60 percent chance). While long-range forecasts made at this time of year can be unreliable, El Niño events can have widespread, global impacts.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based on observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Global temperatures for 2025 were the third warmest on record. 2025 ended with the fifth warmest December and an annual average that was slightly cooler than 2023, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin and Global Climate Highlights. All three of the warmest years on record have been in the past three years. If El Niño conditions develop during 2026, these will likely have a warming effect on global temperatures.
In Australia, where extreme heat occurred during January, February is also forecast to be abnormally hot. February temperatures will likely be warmer than normal in Africa, central and eastern Asia, Brazil, Canada, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, northern Mexico, and the western United States. Abnormally cold conditions are forecast in northern and eastern Europe, western Russia, and the eastern United States during February. Extreme cold weather also impacted these regions during January.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 29 January 2026, from four Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models. SubC data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures and the ongoing La Niña conditions.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over northern Quebec in Canada, while below-average precipitation over eastern and western Canada, the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest of the US, and the Yucatan in Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Canada, the western US, and most of Mexico, while below-average over Ontario in Canada and the eastern US. The long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over most of southern Canada, the northern US, and southern Mexico, while a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the southwest US and northwestern Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the southern and central US and all of Mexico.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over Haiti, the northern Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, and Panama, while below-average precipitation over western Cuba. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over parts of central Costa Rica. The long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests a likelihood of above-average precipitation over Guatemala and eastern Panama. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for eastern Nicaragua and southern Costa Rica.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 February, issued on 30 January 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Colombia, western Venezuela, western Ecuador, and northern and southern Peru, while below-average precipitation over eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern Brazil, central Bolivia, and central Argentina. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Venezuela, Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, the majority of Brazil, Bolivia, southern Peru, and northern Paraguay, while below-average over western Colombia, southern Paraguay, Uruguay, and central Argentina. The long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Colombia and southern Bolivia. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Colombia, western Ecuador, eastern Peru, central Brazil, eastern Bolivia, southern Uruguay, Chile, and Argentina. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for Argentina and Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average over Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy, southern Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, northern Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, and the southern and eastern Russian Federation, while below-average precipitation over Ireland, the northwestern UK, Norway, northern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, northern Belarus, the northern Russian Federation. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Spain, southern France, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Greece, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, while below-average over northern Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, northern Ukraine, and the western Russian Federation. The long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) does not indicate a leaning towards above or below-average precipitation. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Ireland, northern UK, northern Norway, northern Sweden, northern Finland, Italy, Switzerland, western Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, southern Bulgaria, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the southern Russian Federation.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 February, issued on 30 January 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over northern Morocco and northwestern Algeria, while below-average precipitation over Syria. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for Morocco, Yemen, Oman, and along the Mediterranean coast. The long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) does not forecast any changes in precipitation patterns from normal currently. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region, especially over Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, southwestern Iran, Saudi Arabia, northern Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and northern Oman.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, southwestern Ghana, southern Nigeria, the northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, western and central Tanzania, southwest Angola, while below-average precipitation over southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, and central and southern Mozambique. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Mauritania, Mali, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, northern Guinea, northern Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, Chad, the Central African Republic, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, southcentral Kenya, northern Tanzania, southern Malawi, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, northeastern Botswana, central Mozambique, northeastern South Africa, and northern and southern Madagascar. For the long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is leaning towards above-average over Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, southern Chad, South Sudan, the northern Democratic Republic of Congo, and central South Africa. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for southern Angola, southern Zambia, eastern Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, central and southern Mozambique, and northwestern South Africa. For additional details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa.
Figure 3: : Based on September conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely February-March-April (FMA) 2026 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northern and eastern Kazakhstan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. The long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) does not forecast any changes in precipitation patterns from normal currently. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. For additional details, see the CM4EW Regional Outlook for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northeast India and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for southern India and Sri Lanka. The long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Pakistan, western and northeastern India, and southern Sri Lanka. For additional details, see the CM4EW Regional Outlook for Central and Southern Asia and the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northwestern China and northern Mongolia, while below-average precipitation is likely over central and eastern China and southern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for southwest China and eastern Mongolia. The long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over central China and the Democratic Republic of Korea, while below-average precipitation over parts of southern and southeast China and southern Japan. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the Philippines, while below-average precipitation over southern Viet Nam, Cambodia, southern Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and southern New Zealand. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, northern Viet Nam, parts of the Philippines, western Malaysia, central Indonesia, and western and eastern Australia. The long-term January-February-March 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the Philippines, while below-average precipitation over northern Myanmar, northern Viet Nam, eastern Laos, eastern Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, southern Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, southwestern Australia, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Based on January conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely February-March-April (FMA) 2026 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble