Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 136: Published March 5th, 2026
Conditions as of February 28th
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Overview
At the end of February, overall conditions are positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. In the northern hemisphere, wheat crops remain mostly in dormancy, with some areas to evaluate potential winterkill once the crop comes out of dormancy. For maize, harvesting is progressing in South America, with some areas of concern in Argentina. Rice conditions are favourable across Asia as transplanting continues in Bangladesh and India. For soybeans, rains have improved conditions in Argentina as harvest progresses in Brazil.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of February 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crops that are in conditions other than favourable are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat remains dormant as unusually cold weather continues to be a concern in parts of eastern Europe, along with dry conditions in North America.
Maize – Conditions are generally favourable as harvesting continues in South America, although hot and dry weather has negatively impacted yields in some areas of Argentina.
Rice – Conditions are favourable across Asia as transplanting continues in India for the Rabi and Summer crops and in Bangladesh for the Boro crop.
Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, recent rainfall in Argentina has been supportive as harvesting progresses in Brazil.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – La Niña conditions were present but in decline during February 2026. ENSO conditions will most likely be neutral during March to May 2026 (90 percent chance). There are increasing chances that an El Niño event will develop this year, potentially between August and October 2026 (59 percent chance).
Argentina- Over the next two weeks, precipitation is likely to be above-average over most agricultural areas, while temperatures are likely to be below-average or near average.
South Africa – The March-May outlook indicates above-average precipitation across most of the country, which will support continued crop development, but may pose a risk during harvesting time.
United States– The March-May outlook indicates above-average precipitation in the Great Lakes region, while below-average precipitation in the Southwest and Central Great Plains.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of February 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
In the EU, conditions remain generally favourable; however, a cold spell in late January and early February with significantly below-average temperatures occurred over parts of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, with sometimes little snow cover, raising concerns for local winterkill damages. In Türkiye, winter precipitation has restored soil moisture levels in support of crops. In Ukraine, unusually cold weather continued in February, while protective snow cover was present in most regions, winterkill losses are likely in parts of the central regions where snowfall was insufficient. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat conditions remain generally favourable with adequate insulating snow cover over most regions. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. In China, winter wheat remains dormant in the north under favourable conditions. In India, conditions are favourable with harvest beginning in March. In the US, concerns due to drought and earlier exposure to cold weather remain for a large portion of winter wheat areas, particularly in the northern and southern Great Plains. In Canada, winter wheat remains under mixed conditions, as winter moisture has been insufficient across most areas.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of February 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Maize: In Brazil, the harvesting of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is ongoing under favourable conditions, despite a lack of rain and high temperatures in the South Region. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. Sowing of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is progressing with early crop development under favourable conditions. In Argentina, conditions are mixed as the harvest of the early-planted crops (larger season) is progressing with highly variable yields. Recent rainfall has helped to improve conditions for the late-planted crop (smaller season); however, central and southeastern Buenos Aires have not received significant rainfall, making short-term precipitation critical for final yields. In Mexico, harvesting of the spring-summer crop wraps up under generally favourable conditions despite excessively wet conditions earlier in the season. Conditions of the autumn-winter season (smaller season) are favourable. In South Africa, recent timely rains have supported exceptional conditions. In India, conditions are favourable for the Rabi crop (smaller season). In Indonesia, the sowing of the wet-season crop continues, as harvesting of earlier sown crops progresses.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of February 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Rice: In India, conditions are favorable as the transplanting of the Rabi and Summer crops (smaller seasons) continues. In Bangladesh, the transplanting of the Boro crop (largest season) is progressing. In Indonesia, the sowing of wet-season rice is wrapping up with a decrease in total sown area compared to last season. Harvesting of earlier-sown crops continues under favorable conditions. In Viet Nam, sowing of winter-spring (dry-season) rice continues in the south, as sowing begins in the north. Harvesting is starting in the Mekong River Delta. In Thailand, dry-season rice is in the young panicle-forming to grain-filling stages under favorable conditions. In the Philippines, dry-season rice conditions are favorable due to ample water supply and good weather. In Brazil, the harvest is beginning under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of February 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Soybeans: In Brazil, the harvest continues under favorable conditions despite some negative effects in Rio Grande do Sul caused by a lack of rain and high temperatures. An increase in the total sown area is anticipated compared to last year. In Argentina, recent rainfall, though uneven, has supported growing conditions. The early-planting crop (larger season) is developing mostly under favorable conditions, while the late-planted crop (smaller season) is in a critical growth stage and will need ongoing rainfall to ensure optimal yields. In South Africa, conditions remain favourable owing to recent timely rains and above-average rainfall earlier in the season.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.
Climate Influences: Waning La Niña
La Niña conditions were present but in decline during February 2026. ENSO conditions will most likely be neutral during March to May 2026 (90 percent chance) according to the NOAA CPC ENSO Outlook. There are increasing chances that an El Niño event will develop this year, potentially between August and October 2026 (59 percent chance). While long-range forecasts made at this time of year can be unreliable, El Niño events can have widespread, global impacts. If El Niño conditions develop during 2026, these will likely have a warming effect on global temperatures.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based on observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
During late February through mid-March, above-average temperatures are forecast in northwestern, central-western, and southeastern Africa, southern South America, southern and western Asia, southern and eastern Canada, Europe, Japan, northern Mexico, Madagascar, western Russia, and the United States. Warmer-than-average temperatures can negatively impact snowpack development and have already been an issue in central-southern Asia in recent weeks and the United States in recent months. Below-average temperatures are forecast in parts of central-northern and eastern Africa, southeast Asia, central Australia, and the Middle East.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 26 February 2026. Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) model data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Global Two-week Precipitation Forecast
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over eastern Canada, the Mid-West and southern Great Plains in the US, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Venezuela, western Ecuador, Guyana, northern Suriname, northern French Guiana, northwestern Brazil, southwestern Peru, northern Chile, southwestern Bolivia, northwestern Argentina, eastern Spain, southeastern Kenya, central Tanzania, northern Mozambique, central Zambia, southern Malawi, southern Angola, northern Namibia, central Botswana, northern Madagascar, southern and southeastern Kazakhstan, Bhutan, northeastern India, Bangladesh, northern Myanmar, southwestern China, northern Laos, the Philippines, and northern and central Australia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over the western and southeast US, central and eastern Brazil, southern Chile, Ireland, the UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Poland, Czechia, northern Switzerland, northern Austria, Slovakia, northern Hungary, Ukraine, southern Greece, southwestern Türkiye, the western Russian Federation, southern Tunisia, northwestern Libya, eastern Saudi Arabia, eastern Oman, eastern Liberia, eastern Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, central and southern Nigeria, Cameroon, southern Chad, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Republic co the Congo, northwestern Angola, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, northwestern Uganda, Ethiopia, southern and northern Somalia, eastern Iran, eastern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern to southern India, Sri Lanka, western Nepal, western and southeastern China, northeastern Mongolia, southern Japan, northern Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and central Papua New Guinea
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 March, issued on 27 February 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Argentina Outlook
The one-week (2 – 8 March) outlook shows likely above-average precipitation over Salta, Chaco, Santiago del Estero, Córdoba, Santa Fe, San Luis, La Pampa, and northwestern Buenos Aires, while likely below-average precipitation over Misiones, northeastern Corrientes, eastern Entre Ríos, and eastern Buenos Aires. During that time, temperatures are likely to be below-average for most of the main agricultural areas except in Misiones, where temperatures are likely to be above-average. The second week (9-15 March) outlook indicates a similar pattern of likely above-average precipitation over the main agricultural areas. During that time, temperatures are likely to be near average, with a slight leaning toward below-average. The precipitation will be supportive of the second-planted maize and soybean crops that will be in key developmental stages.
Upper Left: 9 – 15 February precipitation forecast anomaly. Upper Right: 9 – 15 February temperature forecast anomaly. Bottom Left: February-March-April 2026 precipitation forecast. Bottom Right: February-March-April 2026 temperature forecast. Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.
South Africa Outlook
The March-April-May 2026 outlook indicates likely above-average precipitation over the Eastern Cape, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, northern Limpopo, southern Mpumalanga, southwestern North West, central and eastern Northern Cape, and eastern Northern Cape. During this time, minimal temperatures are likely to be above-average across the country, while maximum temperatures are likely to be above-average in the southwest and east, and average to below-average in the central parts of the country. The rain will likely be supportive for the continued development of crops; however, the above-average rainfall poses a risk as it may cause waterlogging in the fields and possibly delay the harvest of the summer crops, which typically begins in March.
Top: March-April-May 2026 precipitation anomaly forecast. Left: March-April-May 2026 minimum temperature anomaly forecast. Right: March-April-May 2026 maximum temperature anomaly forecast. Maps from the South Africa Weather Service
United States Outlook
The March-April-May 2026 precipitation forecast indicates likely above-average precipitation over the Great Lakes region and extending down into northwestern Tennessee, while below-average precipitation over the Southwest and extending into the Central Great Plains. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the southern US, with the highest likelihood over the southwest, while temperatures are leaning towards below-average over northwestern Michigan, northern Minnesota, northeastern North Dakota, and northern Wisconsin. Impacts on the current drought conditions will likely see drought improve or be removed throughout the Midwest, the lower Mississippi Valley region, and parts of the southern Great Plains, while drought is likely to develop in the southwest and parts of the central Great Plains.
Upper Left: March-April-May 2026 precipitation outlook issued on 19 February 2026. UpperRight: March-April-May 2026 temperature outlook issued on 19 February 2026. Bottom: Seasonal (March-April-May 2026) drought outlook released on 28 February 2026. Maps from NOAA CPC and NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Climate Prediction Center.