Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 128: Published June 5th, 2025
Conditions as of May 28th
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Overview
At the end of May, conditions are mixed for wheat and soybeans but favourable for maize and rice. For wheat, dry weather continues to be a concern for winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere as sowing begins in the Southern Hemisphere. For maize, harvesting continues in the Southern Hemisphere under mixed conditions as areas of dryness develop in parts of Europe. Rice conditions are favourable across the Americas and Asia as India wraps up the harvests of Rabi and summer rice, and countries in Southeast Asia transition between seasons. For soybeans, harvesting is ongoing in Argentina as it concludes in Brazil and South Africa. In the Northern Hemisphere, sowing is progressing ahead of the normal pace.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crops that are in conditions other than favourable are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat in regions of China, Europe, and the US. Sowing has begun in the Southern Hemisphere.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting continues under mixed conditions. In the northern hemisphere, areas of dryness are developing in parts of Europe.
Rice – Global conditions are favourable. India wraps up the harvest of Rabi and Summer rice as Southeast Asia transitions between seasons.
Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is continuing in Argentina as it wraps up in Brazil and South Africa. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is progressing ahead of the normal pace.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely through October 2025 (98 to 54 percent chances), according to the CPC/IRI outlook. For further details, see page 6.
Australia – The June 2025 outlook indicates likely chances of rainfall above the median for June over northwestern and south-central New South Wales, South Australia, northern Victoria, and eastern and central Western Australia. For further details, see page 7.
Europe – Abnormally dry to drought conditions exist across much of northern, central, and eastern Europe. The June weather forecast indicates likely above-average temperatures across Europe and possible below-average precipitation over eastern Europe. For further details, see page 8.
United States – The June-July-August outlook indicates that above-average precipitation is likely along the Gulf and East Coasts and in Arizona, while below-average precipitation is anticipated in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and from the Northern Great Plains into the Southern Great Plains. For further details, see page 9.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of May 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Wheat: In the EU, dry weather over parts of northern and central Europe is of concern as winter wheat enters the key flowering stage. In Türkiye, prolonged dry weather has likely reduced yield prospects, particularly in Southeastern Anatolia. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat remains under mixed conditions in some areas as spring wheat sowing progresses. In Ukraine, rainfall during May has supported crops in the central and western regions, however, frosts and a prolonged drought are negatively impacting crops in the southern and eastern regions. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat is developing as spring wheat sowing begins. In China, conditions are generally favourable for winter and spring wheat, however, recent hot and dry weather may negatively influence yields across several provinces. In India, the harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In the US, winter wheat harvest is beginning in the southern plains under mostly favourable conditions. Spring wheat sowing is continuing. In Canada, spring wheat sowing is progressing across the Prairies as winter wheat develops in the east. In Australia, sowing is ramping up, however, additional rainfall will be needed to support germination in South Australia and western Victoria. In Argentina, sowing is beginning.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of May 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Maize: In Brazil, the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is being harvested under favourable conditions, except in the Northeast region. The summer-planted crop (larger season) continues to develop, with harvest just beginning. In Argentina, the harvest is progressing slowly, hindered by recent rainfall, with highly variable yields for both the early-planted crop (usually larger season) and the late-planted crop (usually smaller season). In South Africa, harvesting is drawing to a close; however, some areas have been negatively impacted by waterlogging. In China, sowing continues in the northeast. In India, harvesting is concluding for the Rabi crop (smaller season). In Mexico, the harvest is underway for the Autumn-Winter crop (smaller season), with poor yields anticipated. Sowing for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season) progresses under dry conditions in the north and northwest. In the US, sowing and emergence are ahead of average. In Canada, sowing is progressing under favourable conditions. In the EU, sowing is nearing completion under mostly favourable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is concluding, with concerns in the eastern and southern regions due to drought and frosts. In the Russian Federation, sowing is progressing.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of May 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Rice: In China, conditions are favourable for the early double-crop rice (smallest season) in the reproductive stages and for single-season rice (largest season). In India, harvesting of the Rabi and Summer crops is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable as the harvest of the Boro crop (largest season) wraps up, and the sowing of the Aus crop (smallest season) finishes. In Indonesia, the wet-season rice harvest is progressing with good yields, as the sowing of dry-season rice continues with sufficient irrigation water availability. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring season) is under favourable conditions as harvesting wraps up in the south. Sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) is at its peak in the south. In Thailand, the harvesting of dry-season rice wraps up as the sowing of wet-season rice begins. In the Philippines, dry-season rice harvest wraps up under favourable conditions as wet-season rice sowing begins. In Brazil, harvesting is wrapping up with above-average yields.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of May 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Soybeans: In Brazil, the harvest is concluding in the south region with poor yields, particularly in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, due to insufficient rainfall and high temperatures. In Argentina, the harvest is progressing for both the early-planted (generally larger season) and late-planted (generally smaller season) crops; however, recent heavy rains, especially in northeastern Buenos Aires, have hindered progress. In South Africa, the harvest is finishing under mixed conditions due to a delayed start to the season and excessive rainfall at the end of the season. In the US, sowing and emergence are ahead of average in most states due to warm and dry weather during May. A decline in the total sown area is anticipated compared to last year. In Canada, sowing is progressing with an expected slight decrease in total sown area compared to last year. In China, sowing is progressing under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is progressing, albeit with challenges from the ongoing war and soil moisture deficits in the eastern and southern regions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.
Climate Influences: ENSO-Neutral
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely through October 2025 (98 to 54 percent chances), according to the CPC/IRI outlook. There is limited long-range ENSO predictability at this time of the year. Currently, the CPC/IRI anticipates neutral ENSO conditions near the end of 2025 to early 2026. La Nina conditions are also possible. The forecast chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Global temperatures for April 2025 were the second warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Impactful heat waves continued in India and Pakistan during May, and hotter and drier than normal conditions rapidly reduced snowpack in Afghanistan.
Temperature forecasts for June indicate the potential for heat waves in southern Europe and northwestern Africa, as well as above-average temperatures in eastern Europe, western Russia, the western United States, Canada, Central America, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 29 May 2025. UCSB Climate Hazards Center and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) Subseasonal Consortium. Map source UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Global Two-week Precipitation Forecast
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over parts of the northern Canadian Prairies, the southern and eastern US, northeastern and southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, southeast Brazil, central Russian Federation, northcentral Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, northeastern Afghanistan, southern Republic of Korea, southern Japan, central Viet Nam, southern Laos, northern Cambodia, and northeastern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the western US, southern Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, northern and northeast Brazil, eastern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, northern and southern Argentina, Ireland, the United Kingdom, southern Norway, southern Sweden, eastern and northern Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, northern Germany, northern Poland, Lithuania, western Belarus, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, western Romania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, southern Greece, Türkiye, the southern Russian Federation, Georgia Armenia, Azerbaijan, western Turkmenistan, northwest Iran, northern Iraq, northern Algeria, northern Tunisia, central Niger, central Chad, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, the central Democratic Republic of the Congo, eastern Kazakhstan, northeastern Pakistan, northern and western India, western Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, western and central Mongolia, northwestern and central China, northern Myanmar, eastern Malaysia, Brunei, northern Indonesia, and southeastern Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 June 2025, issued on 30 May 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Australia Outlook
The root zone soil moisture map from May 31st, 2025, shows below-average conditions across large parts of South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, and parts of Western Australia. The June 2025 outlook indicates likely chances of rainfall above the median for June over northwestern and south-central New South Wales, South Australia, northern Victoria, and eastern and central Western Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to exceed the median maximum temperature across all of Australia.
Upper Left: Chance of exceeding median rainfall for June 2025. Upper Right: Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature for June 2025. Maps from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Bottom: Root Zone soil moisture percentile from 31 May 2025 from the Australian Water Resource Assessment Landscape mode. Map from Australian Water Outlook (AWO)
Europe Outlook
Current drought conditions in Europe reveal extensive areas under Watch (precipitation deficit) and Warning (negative soil moisture anomaly, usually linked with precipitation deficit) classifications across northern, central, and eastern Europe, extending into Türkiye. Regions experiencing drought Alerts (negative vegetation growth anomaly, usually linked with precipitation deficit and negative soil moisture anomaly) are found in central and eastern Europe, as well as southeastern Türkiye. Forecasted conditions for June suggest a slight tendency towards below-average precipitation in eastern and southeastern Europe, including Türkiye. At the same time, temperatures are expected to be above-average across Europe, with the highest likelihood in northern, central, southern, and southeastern Europe, along with Türkiye. The forecasted weather for June is likely to worsen drought conditions in many areas of Europe that are already experiencing drought.
Top: May 2025 - 2nd ten-day period Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) v4 map for Europe. Source: European Drought Observatory. Bottom Left: June 2025 precipitation probability forecast. Bottom Right: June 2025 temperature probability forecast. Data and maps from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
United States Outlook
The June-July-August outlook indicates that above-average precipitation is likely along the Gulf and East Coasts and in Arizona. Below-average precipitation is anticipated in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and from the Northern Great Plains into the Southern Great Plains. During the same period, temperatures are forecast to be above average across the country, with the highest likelihood in New England, Florida, southwest Texas, and the central Rockies. Based on the current drought conditions and the three-month forecast for June-July-August, drought conditions are expected to diminish on the East Coast; however, they are likely to further develop across the northern and central Great Plains.
Upper Left: June-August 2025 precipitation outlook issued on 15 May 2025. Upper Right: June-August 2025 temperature outlook issued on 15 May 2025. Bottom: Seasonal (15 May – 31 August 2025) drought outlook released on 15 May 2025. Maps from NOAA CPC and NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Climate Prediction Center.