Crop Monitor for AMIS

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No. 129: Published July 3rd, 2025

Conditions as of June 28th

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Overview

At the end of June, conditions are positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, conditions have improved for winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere as the harvest begins. In the southern hemisphere, sowing continues. For maize, harvest is progressing in the Southern Hemisphere under generally favourable conditions. In the northern hemisphere, crops continue to develop under favourable conditions. Rice conditions are favourable. For soybeans, harvesting is wrapping up in Argentina as the sowing in the northern hemisphere progresses.

Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crops that are in conditions other than favourable are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

Crop Conditions at a Glance

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, conditions for winter wheat have improved as harvesting has begun. In the southern hemisphere, sowing of winter wheat is progressing.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is progressing in Argentina and Brazil. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is wrapping up under mostly favourable conditions.

Rice – Global conditions are favourable. In China, harvesting of the early-double crop is ongoing as sowing begins for the late-double crop.

Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is wrapping up in Argentina. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions.

Forecasts at a Glance

Climate Influences – ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (96 to 47 percent).

Europe - Abnormally dry to drought conditions exist across much of northern, central, and eastern Europe. The July weather forecast indicates likely above-average temperatures across Europe and possible below-average precipitation over northern and eastern Europe.

India – The Southwest Monsoon has advanced and covered the entire country as of 29 June 2025, earlier than normal. The July forecast indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over most of the country.

United States – The July forecast indicates that drought conditions are likely to improve or be removed in parts of the Corn Belt, the southern Plains, and the Southeast, while likely to expand in the Pacific Northwest, northern High Plains, and parts of the Southwest.

Wheat Conditions

Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of June 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.

Wheat: In the EU, conditions have improved with exceptionally high expectations in Bulgaria, the Iberian Peninsula, and Romania. In Türkiye, harvest is beginning under mixed conditions due to prolonged dry weather in Southeastern Anatolia. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat harvest is beginning in the south under generally favourable conditions. Spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Ukraine, harvest is beginning in the far south, with conditions favourable, albeit with some overly dry areas and the ongoing war. In Kazakhstan, spring wheat sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In China, the harvest of winter wheat is wrapping up under mostly favourable conditions, despite the earlier hot and dry weather. In the US, winter wheat harvest is progressing under mostly favourable conditions, while dry weather is a concern for spring wheat in Montana. In Canada, conditions are generally favourable for both winter and spring wheat. In Australia, recent rainfall has supported crop establishment in South Australia and western Victoria; however, additional rainfall will be needed to support further development. In Argentina, sowing is progressing at a good pace, supported by recent rainfall and good soil moisture.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Maize Conditions

Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of June 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.

Maize: In Brazil, the harvest of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is wrapping up in the Northeast region with below-average yields. The summer-planted crop (larger season) is beginning the harvest under favourable conditions, with a total sown area increase compared to last season. In Argentina, the harvest for both the early-planted crop (usually larger season) and the late-planted crop (usually smaller season) is progressing slowly due to excessive soil moisture, albeit with yields close to the ten-year average. In China, sowing is continuing under favourable conditions. In Mexico, the harvest continues for the Autumn-Winter crop (smaller season), with poor yields. Sowing for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season) continues under improved conditions. In the US, conditions are favourable, albeit with some dryness developing in the central Corn Belt region. In Canada, sowing is wrapping up, albeit with delays in Quebec. In the EU, conditions are favourable with good yield prospects, particularly in southeastern Europe. In Ukraine, conditions are favourable, albeit with low soil moisture levels in the east and the ongoing war. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed as drought remains a concern in some western producing regions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Rice Conditions

Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of June 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.

Rice: In China, conditions are favourable as the harvesting of the early double-crop (smallest season) begins alongside the sowing of the late double-crop (medium season). Single-season rice (largest season) continues to develop under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable for the Aus crop (smallest season) in the flowering and grain-filling stages and for the sowing of the Aman crop (medium season). In Indonesia, the wet-season rice harvest is wrapping up with good yields and an increase in total harvested area compared to last year due to sufficient water and sunlight. Sowing of dry-season rice continues, albeit at a low level due to the extended wet-season harvest. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring season) is being harvested in the north as the sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) begins. In the south, sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) continues. In Thailand, sowing of wet-season rice is continuing, supported by ample rainfall; however, there is an expected decrease in total sown area compared to last season. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions with an expected increase in total sown area.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Soybean Conditions

Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of June 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.

Soybeans: In Argentina, the harvest is wrapping up for both the early-planted (generally larger season) and late-planted (generally smaller season) crops, albeit delayed in Buenos Aires due to earlier heavy rains. Yields are near average for both crops owing to timely rains since February. In the US, conditions are favourable as sowing wraps up and emergence is on par with the five-year average. In Canada, sowing is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions, albeit with cold, wet weather in Quebec delaying sowing and hampering emergence. In China, conditions are favourable as sowing continues. In Ukraine, sowing is complete with a slight reduction in total area compared to last year. Conditions are generally favourable; however, the ongoing war and soil moisture deficits in parts of the eastern and southern regions remain a concern.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.

Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.

Climate Influences: ENSO-Neutral

ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (96 to 47 per cent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). Forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions could potentially occur during October to January (40 per cent chance), while the chances of El Niño conditions are low.

Global temperatures for May 2025 were the second warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin

Impactful heat waves have recently impacted the central and eastern United States, western Europe, and India. Temperature forecasts indicate the potential for abnormally hot conditions during late June and July in parts of central and northeastern Asia, eastern Canada, southern and eastern Europe, Japan, the southern and central United States, and other regions.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 29 June 2025. UCSB Climate Hazards Center and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) Subseasonal Consortium. Map source UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Global Two-week Precipitation Forecast

The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation in parts of the Ohio Valley in the US, northwestern Mexico, northwest Brazil, central and eastern of the Russian Federation, southeast Mauritania, eastern and southern Mali, central Niger, northern Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, southeastern South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, central Republic of the Congo, central and northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, northern Rwanda, northwestern India, and western China.

There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over western Canada, the northwest and southern Great Plains in the US, northeast and southeast Mexico, Haiti, northern Guatemala, western Honduras, eastern Venezuela, central Peru, eastern Bolivia, southern and central Brazil, Paraguay, southern Chile, southern Argentina, Ireland, the United Kingdom, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, southern Denmark, Germany, Poland, central Lithuania, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, northern Switzerland, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, southern Belarus, southern and eastern of the Russian Federation, northern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, northern Iran, Yemen, Oman, Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, east-central Democratic Republic of the Congo, eastern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, western Turkmenistan, southern India, northern Sri Lanka, northwest and central China, the Republic of Korea, central Japan, eastern Vietnam, eastern Thailand, southern Philippines, eastern Malaysia, central Indonesia, and eastern Australia.

Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 - 18 July 2025, issued on 27 June 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

Europe Outlook

Current drought conditions in Europe reveal extensive areas under Watch (precipitation deficit) and Warning (negative soil moisture anomaly, usually linked with precipitation deficit) classifications across northern, central, and eastern Europe, extending into Türkiye and the Russian Federation. Drought Alerts (negative vegetation growth anomaly, usually linked with precipitation deficit and negative soil moisture anomaly) are present in parts of Belarus, Belgium, northern France, northern Germany, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, Türkiye, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. Forecasted conditions for July suggest a slight tendency towards below-average precipitation in northern and eastern Europe. The highest likelihood of below-average precipitation is in parts of central and eastern Ukraine, the southern Russian Federation, and northern Türkiye. During the same time, temperatures are expected to be above-average across Europe. The forecasted weather for July is likely to worsen drought conditions in many areas of Europe that are already experiencing drought.

Top: June 2025 - 2nd ten-day period Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) v4 map for Europe. Source: European Drought Observatory. Bottom Left: July 2025 precipitation probability forecast. Bottom Right: July 2025 temperature probability forecast. Data and maps from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

India Outlook

The Southwest Monsoon has advanced and covered the entire country as of 29 June 2025, nine days ahead of the average date of July 8. Since early June, most regions have received average to above-average rainfall, except for parts of the East and Northeast regions, and a few areas in the south.

The July forecast indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over most of the country, with national-level precipitation likely to exceed 106% of the long-term average. However, parts of the Northeast, East, extreme South Peninsula, and the Northwest are expected to receive below-average precipitation. During this period, maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be average to below-average, except in some areas of the Northwest, East, and Southern Peninsula, where maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above average.

Left: Advance of the Southwest Monsoon as of 29 June 2025. Right: Rainfall probability forecast for July 2025. Maps from the India Meteorological Department

United States Outlook

The July outlook indicates that above-average precipitation is likely over the Atlantic Coast States, the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the central Gulf Coast, and southern New Mexico, while below-average precipitation is likely over eastern Texas, eastern Nebraska, northern Kansas, southwest Iowa, northwestern Missouri, Washington, northern Idaho, and western and central Montana. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above average across the country, with the highest likelihood in New England, southern Texas, and the northern and central Rockies. Based on the current drought conditions and the July forecast, drought conditions are likely to improve or be removed in Florida, southeast Arizona, New Mexico, western Texas, eastern Nebraska, and in minor areas around the Great Lakes; however, drought condition are likely to develop in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rocky Mountains, northern High Plains, central California, central Utah, and in parts of southern Texas.

Upper Left: July 2025 precipitation outlook issued on 30 June 2025. Upper Right: July 2025 temperature outlook issued on 30 June 2025. Bottom: Monthly (July 2025) drought outlook released on 30 June 2025. Maps from NOAA CPC and NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Climate Prediction Center.