Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 130: Published July 3rdAugust 7th, 2025
Conditions as of July 28th
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Overview
At the end of July, conditions are positive for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, winter wheat harvest is progressing in the Northern Hemisphere, with some areas of reduced yields. Spring wheat harvesting is about to begin under dry conditions in North America. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are favourable. For maize, harvest is wrapping up in the Southern Hemisphere under generally favourable conditions. In the northern hemisphere, crops continue to develop under favourable conditions, albeit with some areas of concern in parts of Europe. Rice conditions are generally favourable. For soybeans, conditions are generally favourable in the Northern Hemisphere, except in Ukraine due to drought and the ongoing war.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crops that are in conditions other than favourable are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat harvests are underway under varied conditions in parts of Europe, Ukraine, Türkiye, and the US. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are favourable.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvests are progressing under favourable to exceptional conditions. In the northern hemisphere, recent hot and dry weather raises concerns in parts of Europe, the western Russian Federation, and Ukraine.
Rice – Global conditions are generally favourable, with some delays in the transplanting of the Kharif crop in parts of eastern and northeastern India.
Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable, although there are concerns in southeastern Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (87 to 43 percent).
Canada- During August-September-October, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country. There will also be spots of above-average precipitation across the Prairies, while likely below-average precipitation over the maritime provinces.
Europe – The forecasted weather for August is likely to worsen drought conditions in many areas of Europe due to the high likelihood of above-average temperatures and areas of likely below-average precipitation, particularly in areas of eastern Europe that are already experiencing drought
United States – Drought conditions are not likely to change much over the next month due to August’s weather forecasts.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of July 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Wheat: In the EU, harvesting is progressing with exceptional yield expectations in Bulgaria, the Iberian Peninsula, and Romania, while below-average yields are expected in Italy. In Türkiye, harvest is wrapping up with below-average yields in Central and Southeastern Anatolia. In the Russian Federation, the winter wheat harvest is progressing at a slightly slower pace than normal. Conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some drought-impacted areas in the south. Spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Ukraine, harvest is progressing with below-average yields within the southern and frontline regions due to severe drought and the ongoing war. In Kazakhstan, spring wheat is under favourable conditions as winter wheat harvesting continues. In China, harvesting of spring wheat is beginning under favourable conditions. In the US, winter wheat harvest is progressing under generally favourable conditions, although with expected below-average yields in Nebraska and South Dakota. Spring wheat harvesting has just begun, although drought conditions are increasing in the western production regions. In Canada, winter wheat is being harvested, while spring wheat is under drought conditions across large parts of the Prairie Region. In Australia, recent rainfall has supported crop growth and development, boosting soil moisture levels across most growing regions. In Argentina, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions, despite some delays due to excessive soil moisture.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of June 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Maize: In Brazil, harvesting is ongoing for the summer-planted crop (larger season) with yields above the five-year average in most regions. In Argentina, harvesting of the late-planted crop (usually smaller season) is wrapping up, albeit delayed due to frequent rainfall, particularly in Buenos Aires. In China, the harvest of spring-planted crops is beginning as the summer-planted crops continue to develop. In India, sowing of the Kharif crop (larger season) is progressing under favourable conditions. In Mexico, harvesting wraps up for the Autumn-Winter crop (smaller season), with poor yields due to prolonged drought in the main producing northwest region. Sowing is progressing for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season) with ample rainfall over the southern plateau corn belt. In the US, while temperatures have been above-average, plentiful rains have helped ensure favourable crop conditions. In Canada, conditions are favourable in Ontario, while mixed in Quebec due to an overly wet season. In the EU, persistent hot and dry weather in southeastern Europe has reduced yield expectations. In Ukraine, hot and dry weather is negatively affecting crop development in the central, eastern, and southern regions. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed as hot and dry weather remains a concern in some western and southern areas.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of July 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Rice: In China, the harvesting of the early double-crop (smallest season) is progressing alongside the sowing of the late double-crop (medium season). Single-season rice (largest season) continues to develop under favourable conditions. In India, transplanting of Kharif rice (larger season) is ongoing, albeit delayed in a few eastern and northeastern states due to rainfall deficits. In Bangladesh, harvesting for the Aus crop (smallest season) is beginning as the sowing of the Aman crop (medium season) continues. In Indonesia, the sowing of dry-season rice is continuing at a slower pace than last year, as earlier sown crops are beginning to be harvested. In Viet Nam, the harvest of dry-season rice (winter-spring season) is wrapping in the north as the sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) continues. In the south, wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) is in the young panicle formation to grain filling stages. In Thailand, sowing of wet-season rice is progressing with an expected slight decrease in total area compared to last season. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions, supported by sufficient rainfall. In Japan, conditions are favourable for early cultivation in the warm southwestern regions and first-season rice in Okinawa.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of July 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Soybeans: In the US, the crop is progressing within the reproductive stages under favourable conditions. In Canada, conditions are favourable in Ontario and Manitoba; however, in Quebec, excess moisture and cool temperatures this spring, along with continued moisture over the growing season, have stunted crop development. In China, conditions are favourable, supported by ample rainfall during July in the main producing northeast region. In India, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions with a slight decrease in total sown area compared to last year. In Ukraine, very high temperatures and little rainfall in the central, eastern, and southern regions are negatively affecting crop development; however, conditions remain favourable in the western regions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.
Climate Influences: ENSO-Neutral
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (87 to 43 percent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). Forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions could potentially occur during October to January (up to a 49 percent chance), while the chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may develop during August to October 2025, based on observations during late July and forecasts from Copernicus Climate Change Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts (~ 50 to 60 percent chances). Negative IOD conditions typically lead to below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa and above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region.
Global temperatures for May 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin.
During late July to August, above-average temperatures are forecast in parts of central and northeastern Asia, central and northern Eurasia, the Middle East, central and northern North America, southern South America, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 31 July2025. UCSB Climate Hazards Center and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) Subseasonal Consortium. Map source UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Global Two-week Precipitation Forecast
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over northern and western Brazil, northern Peru, southwest Mauritania, southern Mali, central east Chad, western Sudan, southeast South Sudan, Eritrea, northern and southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, northeast Kazakhstan, southwest and southeastern China, the southern Philippines, Indonesia, western Papua New Guinea, and south central Australia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over western Canada, the northwest and western Great Plains in the US, northeast Mexico, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay, central Chile, Ireland, the western United Kingdom, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, western Germany, Poland, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, southern Belarus, the southwestern Russian Federation, western Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, northern Tunisia, northern Algeria, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, northern and eastern Uzbekistan, central Mongolia, eastern India, and western China.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 – 22 August 2025, issued on 1 August 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Canada Outlook
The August-September-October forecast for Canada indicates a slight likelihood of above-average precipitation over the Alberta-British Columbia border region, northeast Alberta, northern and central Saskatchewan, northern Manitoba, northern Ontario, Yukon, southern and northern Nunavut, northeast and northwest Quebec, and parts of the central Northwest Territories, while there is likely below-average precipitation over eastern Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edwards Island. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across all provinces and territories except for Yukon and northwest British Columbia, with the highest likelihood over the eastern Provinces.
Left: Forecast of the probability of precipitation above, below, and near normal during August-September-October 2025, issued 31 July 2025. Right: Forecast of the probability of temperature above, below, and near normal during August-September-October 2025, issued 31 July 2025. Maps from Environment and Climate Change Canada
Europe Outlook
Current drought conditions in Europe reveal extensive areas under Warning (negative soil moisture anomaly, usually linked with precipitation deficit) and Drought Alerts (negative vegetation growth anomaly, usually linked with precipitation deficit and negative soil moisture anomaly). Forecasted conditions for August suggest a slight leaning towards below-average precipitation across most of central and eastern Europe, with areas of higher likelihood over eastern Czechia, southern Poland, Slovakia, northern Hungary, northern and central Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, and southeastern Belarus. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of Europe. The forecasted weather for August is likely to worsen drought conditions in many areas of Europe due to likely above-average temperatures and areas of likely below-average precipitation, particularly in areas of eastern Europe that are already experiencing drought.
Top: July 2025 - 2nd ten-day period Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) v4 map for Europe. Source: European Drought Observatory. Bottom Left: August 2025 precipitation probability forecast. Bottom Right: August 2025 temperature probability forecast. Data and maps from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
United States Outlook
The August outlook indicates that above-average precipitation is likely over the Southeast, while below-average precipitation is likely over western Texas, western Oklahoma, eastern Nebraska, western Kansas, Colorado, southern Wyoming, Utah, northeastern Arizona, and New Mexico. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above average across the eastern and western halves of the country, with the highest likelihood in the southwest and northeast. Based on the current drought conditions and the August weather forecasts, drought conditions are likely to develop in parts of the central to southern Plains and northern Mississippi.
Upper Left: August 2025 precipitation outlook issued on 31 July 2025. Upper Right: August 2025 temperature outlook issued on 31 July 2025. Bottom: Monthly (August 2025) drought outlook released on 31 July 2025. Maps from NOAA CPC and NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Climate Prediction Center.