Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 131: Published September 4th, 2025
Conditions as of August 28th
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Overview
At the end of August, conditions are positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, the harvest of winter wheat is wrapping up in the Northern Hemisphere as spring wheat harvest progresses. In the southern hemisphere, conditions remain favourable. For maize, harvest is wrapping up in Brazil under exceptional conditions. In the northern hemisphere, yield expectations are high in the US, but below average in parts of south-eastern Europe, the southern Russian Federation, and Ukraine. For Rice, conditions are favourable. For soybeans, conditions are favourable in the Northern Hemisphere except in parts of south-eastern Europe, the southern Russian Federation, and Ukraine
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crops that are in conditions other than favourable are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat harvests are wrapping up as the harvest of spring wheat picks up pace. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are favourable.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvest is concluding in Brazil. In the northern hemisphere, yield expectations are high in the US, but below average in parts of south-eastern Europe and Ukraine.
Rice – Global conditions are generally favourable as harvest begins for single-season rice in China.
Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with areas of concern in southeastern Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – La Niña conditions are expected to develop from September to December 2025. Additionally, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is developing.
Europe - During September, precipitation is likely to be near-average and temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of Europe.
Mexico – During September, drought conditions are likely to expand in the northern half of the country.
United States – During September, drought conditions are likely to expand in the northern half of the country.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of August 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Wheat: In the EU, winter wheat harvesting is wrapping up across northern and central Europe with average to above-average yields. In the Russian Federation, the winter wheat harvest is wrapping up with reduced yields in the southern district, but with exceptional yields in the Central district and parts of the Volga district. The spring wheat harvest is just beginning. In Ukraine, harvest is wrapping up with below-average yields within the southern and eastern regions due to severe drought and the ongoing war. In Kazakhstan, spring wheat is under favourable conditions as winter wheat harvesting wraps up. In China, harvesting of spring wheat is continuing under favourable conditions. In the US, winter wheat harvest is wrapping up under good conditions, except in Nebraska and South Dakota. Spring wheat harvesting is progressing, albeit with dry conditions in the western regions. In Canada, winter wheat harvest is wrapping up as it begins for spring wheat. In Australia, conditions are generally favourable; however, dry conditions remain in parts of southern New South Wales. In Argentina, ample rainfall since the beginning of the season has supported favourable growing conditions; however, it has also resulted in a reduction in total sown area compared to last year.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of August 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Maize: In Brazil, harvest is advancing for the summer-planted crop (larger season) with exceptional yields and an increase in the total sown area compared to last year. In China, the harvest of spring-planted crops is wrapping up as the summer-planted crops continue to develop. In India, conditions are favourable for the Kharif crop (larger season) with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Mexico, conditions are favourable for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season). In the US, plentiful rains and optimal temperatures have persisted across the main production areas, leading to above-average yield expectations. There is an increase in the total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable as the crop continues to develop. In the EU, persistent drought in Bulgaria, eastern Croatia, Greece, Hungary, and Romania has caused irreversible yield losses, especially in rainfed areas; conversely, conditions were more favourable in western and northern Europe. In Ukraine, drought conditions continue to degrade crops in the southern, eastern, and parts of the central region. In the Russian Federation, conditions remained mixed in the Southern district due to drought; however, conditions are favourable elsewhere.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of August 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Rice: In China, conditions are favourable as the harvest of single-season rice (largest season) is beginning, as the late double-crop (medium season) continues to develop. In India, transplanting of Kharif rice (larger season) is wrapping up with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Bangladesh, harvesting for the Aus crop (smallest season) is wrapping up as the sowing of the Aman crop (medium season) continues. In Indonesia, the sowing of dry-season rice continues as harvesting of earlier sown crops enters the second month, with good yields. In Viet Nam, the summer-autumn rice (wet-season) in the north is developing as the sowing of season rice (main wet-season crop) continues. In the south, the harvest of the summer-autumn rice (wet-season) is ongoing as the autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice (wet-season) crops develop. In Thailand, damage is still being assessed to wet-season rice from heavy rainfall and flooding in the northern, upper northeastern, and central regions during July. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions, despite some losses due to the impact of three tropical cyclones in July. In Japan, conditions are favourable despite some areas with high temperatures and drought since July.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of August 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Soybeans: In the US, conditions are favourable as the crop progresses with plentiful rains and moderate temperatures. The total sown area is reduced compared to last year. In Canada, harvest is beginning under favourable conditions despite dry weather across most provinces. In China, conditions are favourable as the crop matures for harvest starting next month. In India, conditions are favourable with a slight reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Ukraine, crops are ripening under favourable conditions in the western, northern, and parts of the central regions; however, long-term drought conditions continue to negatively impact crops in the southern and eastern regions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.
Climate Influences: La Niña Watch and Emerging Negative IOD
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions will likely develop during September to December 2025 (53 to 58 per cent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). This will likely be a weak-strength and short-lived ENSO event.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based on observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is developing, based on negative IOD index values during recent weeks. Negative IOD conditions are anticipated through November 2025 (~65 to 84 per cent chances, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts) and potentially through December 2025 (> 50 per cent chances).
Associated with negative IOD conditions are higher chances of below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa and above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region.
The timing of wet and dry conditions based on Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation (green and brown polygons), and sea surface temperature departures from average during July-September (blue and red shading), related to the IOD. The regions used to define the Dipole Mode Index are outlined in black. Source: FEWS NET 2021: IOD and Precipitation, Agroclimatology Fact Sheet Series, Vol. 3, pp. 1-2.
Global temperatures for July 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin.
During late July to August, heatwaves occurred in China, southern Europe, Japan, northern Mexico, the Middle East, Sudan, and the western and central United States. During late August to September, above-average temperatures are forecast in parts of central and northeastern Asia, central and northern Eurasia, the Middle East, central and northern North America, southern South America, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 21 August 2025. Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) model data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Global Two-week Precipitation Forecast
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over southern Texas in the US, northeastern Mexico, southern Peru, western and northern Bolivia, central and southern Brazil, southern Mauritania, southern Mali, northeastern Guinea, northwestern Niger, northeastern Nigeria, central and southern Chad, northern Cameroon, central Afghanistan, central west Pakistan, central India, central China, northeastern Russia, the southern Philippines, southern and western Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern New Zealand.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over central Canada, the southwest US, northwest and southeast Mexico, western Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Ecuador, northern and southeastern Brazil, southern Chile, northern Germany, Czechia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, western Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Greece, eastern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, central and southern Russia, northwestern Iran, southern Yemen, Ethiopia, northern Somalia, southern Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, southern Mozambique, western and eastern South Africa, eastern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, northern Tajikistan, northern Pakistan, southern India, southern Sri Lanka, northwest China, central Mongolia, western Indonesia, eastern Malaysia, and the northern Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 September 2025, issued on 29 August 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Europe Outlook
Current drought conditions in Europe reveal areas under Warning (negative soil moisture anomaly, usually linked with precipitation deficit) and Drought Alerts (negative vegetation growth anomaly, usually linked with precipitation deficit and negative soil moisture anomaly). Forecasted conditions for September suggest near-average precipitation for the majority of Europe. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of Europe. The forecasted weather for September is unlikely to significantly improve the levels of drought across Europe due to the near-average rainfall and the above-average temperatures.
Top: August 2025 - 2nd ten-day period Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) v4 map for Europe. Source: European Drought Observatory. Bottom Left: September 2025 precipitation probability forecast. Bottom Right: September 2025 temperature probability forecast. Data and maps from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Mexico Outlook
The current drought monitor shows drought conditions in the northwest, along the US border, and in small spot areas across the country. The September outlook indicates below-average rainfall across the northern and northwest regions of the country, as well as in spot areas along the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to be above-average in most parts of the country, except for sections of the northwest and west. The September forecast suggests that drought conditions will likely expand in the northern half of the country during the month.
Top: 15 August Drought Monitor map for Mexico. Bottom Left: September 2025 precipitation anomaly in millimetres. Bottom Right: September 2025 temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius. Data and maps from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of Mexico.
United States Outlook
The September outlook indicates that above-average precipitation is likely over the Southeast coastal areas, the Pacific Northwest, and the central and southern Great Plains. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above average over the Rockies, Northern Great Plains, Central Great Plains, and parts of the northwestern Midwest. Based on the current drought conditions and the September weather forecasts, drought conditions are likely to develop over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, the central Corn Belt, and into the Ohio Valley region. Conversely, drought conditions are likely to improve or be removed in parts of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, southern Texas, and Arkansas.
Upper Left: September 2025 precipitation outlook issued on 31 August 2025. Upper Right: September 2025 temperature outlook issued on 31 August 2025. Bottom: September 2025 drought outlook released on 31 August 2025. Maps from NOAA CPC and NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Climate Prediction Center.