Crop Monitor for AMIS

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No. 133: Published November 6th, 2025

Conditions as of October 28th

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Overview

At the end of October, conditions are positive for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, the harvest is beginning in the Southern Hemisphere under favourable conditions. In the Northern Hemisphere, the sowing of winter wheat is progressing with some areas of concern in China, the EU, and Ukraine. For maize, harvesting is ongoing in the Northern Hemisphere under contrasting conditions as sowing expands in the Southern Hemisphere. For rice, conditions are overall favourable, albeit with some damage from tropical storms in northern Viet Nam. For soybeans, the harvest is advancing in the Northern Hemisphere as sowing progresses in the Southern Hemisphere.

Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crops that are in conditions other than favourable are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

Crop Conditions at a Glance

Wheat – In the Southern Hemisphere, the harvest is beginning under favourable conditions. In the Northern Hemisphere, the sowing of winter wheat is progressing with some areas of concern in China, the EU, and Ukraine.

Maize – Harvesting is ongoing in the Northern Hemisphere under contrasting conditions, as sowing expands in the Southern Hemisphere.

Rice – Global conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some damage from tropical storms in northern Viet Nam.

Soybeans – Harvest is advancing in the Northern Hemisphere as sowing progresses in the Southern Hemisphere.

Forecasts at a Glance

Climate Influences – La Niña conditions are present and will likely continue into early 2026. Ongoing negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are forecast to continue during November (> 85 percent chances).

Argentina - Next week's forecast indicates below-average rainfall in the east and below-average temperatures across the country. The three-month forecast indicates below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures for most of the country.

South Africa – The three-month outlook indicates likely above-average precipitation over the country’s summer rainfall regions, which will support early crop development.

United States – The November outlook indicates that above-average precipitation is likely over the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and New England, while below-average precipitation is likely from the Southwest to the southern Atlantic Coast.

Wheat Conditions

Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of October 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.

Wheat: In the EU, sowing is underway, although delayed in parts of southern Europe, especially in parts of Bulgaria and Romania, due to heavy rainfall. In the Russian Federation, recent rains in the southwest have improved winter wheat sowing and early growth conditions; however, progress remains behind average. In Ukraine, sowing is advancing as recent rains have mitigated the long-term drought in southern and eastern regions. In Kazakhstan, spring wheat harvesting is nearly complete as sowing of winter wheat begins. In China, sowing of winter wheat has been delayed in the North China Plain due to heavy rainfall and the delayed autumn crop harvesting. In the US, winter wheat sowing continues under generally favourable conditions, though dry weather affects the Pacific Northwest and eastern Midwest. In Canada, winter wheat sowing is progressing. In Australia, harvest has just started under mixed conditions due to ongoing dryness in the southeast, while exceptional conditions are present in Western Australia. In Argentina, harvest is beginning in the northern regions, with most crops growing under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Maize Conditions

Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of October 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.

Maize: In China, the harvest of summer-planted crops advances as excessive rainfall causes delays and reduced yields in the Huang-Huai-Hai region. In India, the Kharif crop (larger season) is being harvested, with a noticeable increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Indonesia, harvesting of dry-season crops continues as the sowing of wet-season crops begins. In the US, harvest is continuing with above-average yields expected in the northwestern Corn Belt, albeit with some delays due to recent heavy rains. In Canada, harvest is wrapping up. In Mexico, excessive rainfall and flooding have negatively impacted the spring-summer crop season (larger season) in some areas. In the EU, harvesting is ongoing under mostly favourable conditions; however, yields in southeastern Europe are below-average due to persistent drought. In Ukraine, harvesting is continuing, albeit with reduced yields in the southern and eastern regions, due to the prolonged drought. In the Russian Federation, harvesting is continuing under mixed conditions. In Brazil, sowing of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is continuing under favorable conditions, and a significant increase in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Argentina, the sowing of the early-planted crop (larger season) is wrapping up.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Rice Conditions

Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of October 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.

Rice: In China, the harvest of single-season rice (largest season) and the late double-crop (medium season) progresses. In India, Kharif rice (larger season) is under favourable conditions as harvesting progresses in the northern part of the country. In Bangladesh, early harvesting of the Aman crop (medium season) is beginning. In Indonesia, harvesting of dry-season rice advances as the sowing of wet-season rice begins with the start of rainfall in early October. In Viet Nam, tropical storms in late September caused damage to summer-autumn rice (wet-season) in the north. In the south, the harvest of the summer-autumn rice (wet-season) is wrapping up as the harvest of autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice (wet-season) begins. In Thailand, wet-season rice is under generally favourable conditions despite some recent flood damage from several tropical storms (Bualoi & Matmo). In the Philippines, conditions are favourable for wet-season rice, albeit with some losses from the combined effects of the southwest monsoon and five tropical cyclones. In Japan, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Brazil, sowing is progressing with a total sown area decrease expected compared to last year.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Soybean Conditions

Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of October 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.

Soybeans: In the US, the harvest is progressing with average to above-average yields, albeit with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, harvest is finishing under generally favourable conditions except in Manitoba, where yields were reduced due to dry weather during the key developmental periods and then late-season heavy rain and flooding. In China, harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In India, harvest is nearing completion with the total sown area slightly lower than last year due to excess rains earlier in the season, especially in parts of Madhya Pradesh state. In Ukraine, harvesting is advancing with above-average yields in the western region, while below-average yields are expected in the southern and eastern regions due to the long-term drought. In Brazil, sowing is just ongoing under favourable conditions, with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.

Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.

Climate Influences: La Niña Advisory and Negative IOD

La Niña conditions are present and will likely continue into early 2026. There is a 71 percent chance of La Niña conditions during November 2025 to January 2026, and a 56 percent chance during December 2025 to February 2026, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook. ENSO neutral conditions are likely thereafter.

La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America. 

Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based on observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC

Ongoing negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are forecast to continue during November (> 85 percent chances, according to the IRI forecast), raising the chances that below-average rainfall will continue to impact eastern East Africa during the short rains season. Crops and pasture conditions in Somalia could be severely affected if below-average rainfall forecasts materialize.

The timing of wet and dry conditions based on Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation (green and brown polygons), and sea surface temperature departures from average during July-September (blue and red shading), related to the IOD. The regions used to define the Dipole Mode Index are outlined in black. Source: FEWS NET 2021: IOD and Precipitation, Agroclimatology Fact Sheet Series, Vol. 3, pp. 1-2.

Global temperatures for September 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Between late September and October, there were usually high levels of heat in Australia, Bangladesh, southeast China, eastern East Africa, Iran, northern Mexico, the southern United States, and elsewhere. During November, above-average temperatures are forecast across western, central, and eastern Asia, Europe, northern Brazil, Somalia, North Africa, the Middle East, North America, and southern South America.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 21 August 2025. Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) model data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.

Global Two-week Precipitation Forecast

The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over southern Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, northwest Colombia, central east Brazil, Sierra Leone, western Liberia, northern Côte d'Ivoire, northern Ghana, southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, southwest Angola, Zambia, Malawi, central Mozambique, northeastern Namibia, Madagascar, Lesotho, the northcentral Russian Federation, central and eastern China, southern Japan, southern Myanmar, northern Thailand, Laos, the northern Philippines, and northern Australia.

There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over northwestern Canada, the southern and eastern United States, northwestern Mexico, southwestern Colombia, northwestern Ecuador, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and southern Brazil, central Peru, northern Bolivia, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, southern Chile, Portugal, western Spain, eastern France, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, western Greece, eastern Belarus, eastern Ukraine, southwestern Romania, the western and eastern Russian Federation, western Türkiye, eastern Syria, Iraq, Iran, northern Saudi Arabia, western Morocco, eastern Cameroon, southern Chad, the Central African Republic, central South Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, eastern Uganda, northern Tanzania, northwestern and southeast Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, eastern and western Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, northern and western Pakistan, northwestern and southern India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, southwestern and northeastern China, eastern Mongolia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, western Republic of Korea, northern Japan, southern Thailand, western Malaysia, western and central Indonesia, and eastern Australia.

Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 November 2025, issued on 31 October 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

Argentina Outlook

The one-week outlook indicates likely below-average precipitation over Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, Misiones, Santiago del Estero, Chaco, Formosa, and eastern Salta, while above-average precipitation over San Luis, western La Pampa, and eastern Mendoza. At the same time, temperatures are expected to below-average across most of the central and northern parts of the county.

The October-November-December forecast indicates that most of the central and eastern parts of the country will likely have below-average precipitation, while the northwest will likely have above-average precipitation. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country except for the Northwest region.

Upper Left: 5 – 11 November 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast. Upper right: 5 – 11 November 2025 temperature anomaly forecast. Lower Left: November-December-January 2025/26 precipitation forecast. Lower Right: November-December-January 2025/26 temperature forecast. Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.

South Africa Outlook

The November-December-January 2025/26 outlook indicates likely above-average precipitation over the eastern regions of Eastern Cape/Oos-Kaap, Free State/Vrystaat, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West/Noordwes, eastern Northern Cape/Noord-Kaap, and southern Western Cape/Wes-Kapp, while below-average precipitation over the western regions of Eastern Cape/Oos-Kaap, northern Western Cape/Wes-Kapp, and most of Northern Cape/Noord-Kaap. At the same time, maximum temperatures are likely to be above-average over the northern part of the country, while below-average over the southern, eastern, and western portions of the country. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire country.

Left: November-December-January 2025/26 precipitation anomaly forecast. Center: November-December-January 2025/26 maximum temperature anomaly forecast. Right: November-December-January 2025/26 minimum temperature anomaly forecast. Maps from the South Africa Weather Service

United States Outlook

The November outlook indicates that above-average precipitation is likely over the Pacific Northwest, the northern Pacific Coast, the northern Rocky Mountains, and northern New England, while below-average precipitation is likely over the Southwest, central and southern Rocky Mountains, central and southern Great Plains, the southeast, and the central and southern Atlantic Coast. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the country except for the Atlantic Coast. Based on the current drought conditions and the November weather forecasts, drought conditions are likely to improve or be removed in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rocky Mountains, and northern and western New York. Conversely, drought conditions are likely to develop or expand in parts of the Southeast, southern Texas, and the southern Great Plains. 

Upper Left: November 2025 precipitation outlook issued on 31 October 2025. Upper Right: November 2025 temperature outlook issued on 31 October 2025. Bottom: November 2025 drought outlook released on 31 October 2025. Maps from NOAA CPC and NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Climate Prediction Center.