Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 138: Published May 7th 2026
Conditions as of April 28th
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Overview
At the end of April, overall conditions are positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. In the Northern Hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable; however, rainfall is needed in parts of Europe and in the US. For maize, harvesting is ongoing in the Southern Hemisphere, and sowing is expanding in the Northern Hemisphere. Rice conditions are mostly favourable as harvests progress in South and Southeast Asia and South America. For soybeans, harvesting is progressing with good yields in the Southern Hemisphere as sowing ramps up in the Northern Hemisphere.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crops under non-favourable conditions are displayed on the map using their crop symbols.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the Northern Hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable; however, rainfall is needed in parts of Europe and in the US.
Maize – Conditions are favourable as harvesting is ongoing in the Southern Hemisphere and sowing is expanding in the Northern Hemisphere.
Rice – Global conditions are mostly favourable as harvests progress in South and Southeast Asia and South America.
Soybeans – Harvesting is progressing with good yields in the Southern Hemisphere as sowing ramps up in the Northern Hemisphere.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – El Niño conditions are confidently forecast from mid-2026 to early 2027. El Niño conditions may develop soon—during May to July 2026 (61 percent chance)—and could become a moderate or strong event.
Australia- The May outlook indicates likely below-average precipitation and above-average maximum temperatures across much of the country.
India - The forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season (June – September) indicates likely below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures across most of the country
United States– The May outlook indicates likely expansion of drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, while improvement or removal in the Western Gulf Coast Region.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of April 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
In the EU, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions; however, additional rainfall is needed in central and eastern Europe to avoid rapid deterioration in crop conditions before entering the reproductive stages. In Türkiye, conditions remain favourable for winter wheat. In Ukraine, winter wheat is under favourable conditions despite frequent and prolonged frosts in April. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. Spring wheat sowing is ongoing, albeit slowed by recent cold and wet weather. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat continues under favourable conditions. In China, winter wheat develops under favourable conditions as spring wheat sowing continues. In India, the harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions despite some localized damage from late-season rainfall and hail. In the US, drought continues to expand across winter wheat areas. Spring wheat sowing picks up pace. In Canada, conditions have improved for winter wheat owing to recent above-average precipitation in Ontario and Quebec. In Australia, sowing is just beginning.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of April 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Maize: In Brazil, the harvest of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is progressing under mostly exceptional conditions. The summer-planted crop (larger season) is in mostly favourable conditions; however, a lack of rainfall and high temperatures is negatively impacting crops in the Southeast region. In Argentina, the harvest of early-planted crops (larger season) slows as priority shifts to the soybean harvest. The late-planted crop (smaller season) continues through the grain-filling stage under favorable conditions. In South Africa, harvest is progressing under mostly favourable to exceptional conditions. In India, the harvest of the Rabi crop (smaller season) is wrapping up under favorable conditions. In Indonesia, the harvest of the wet-season crop continues as sowing of the dry-season crop begins. In the US, sowing is progressing, with an expected reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Mexico, conditions are favorable for the autumn-winter season (smaller season). In China, sowing of spring-maize is continuing throughout the country. In the EU, sowing is ongoing under favorable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is beginning. In the Russian Federation, sowing is beginning.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of April 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Rice: In China, the early double-crop rice (smallest season) is developing as the sowing of single-season rice (largest season) begins. In India, the harvest is progressing for the Rabi crop as the Summer crop continues to develop. In Bangladesh, harvesting of the Boro crop (largest season) advances in a race against rising waters from heavy rains in the low-lying haor regions of the northeast. Sowing continues for the Aus crop (smallest season). In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice continues as sowing begins for dry-season rice. In Viet Nam, winter-spring (dry-season) rice is under favourable conditions across the country as harvesting continues in the south and the sowing of summer-autumn (wet-season) rice begins. In Thailand, harvesting continues for dry-season rice with an expected increase in yields compared to last season, albeit with a reduction in total sown area. In the Philippines, dry-season rice harvesting is ongoing with a slight reduction in yields compared to last year. In Brazil, the harvest is continuing.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of April 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
Soybeans: In Brazil, the harvest is wrapping up under exceptional conditions in the Central-West, Southeast, and Northern regions, thanks to mostly good weather throughout the season. In Argentina, harvesting is progressing for the early-planting crop (larger season) despite delays from recent heavy rainfall. Yields are good, supported by timely rainfall since mid-February. The late-planted crop (smaller season) is reaching maturity under favorable conditions, with harvest just beginning in the north. In South Africa, harvest is ongoing with above-average yields expected across most of the country, with an increase in total sown area compared to last year and the five-year average. In the US, sowing is ramping up under generally favorable conditions, with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Ukraine, sowing is just beginning under favorable conditions, with an increase in total sown area expected compared to last year.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.
Climate Influences: El Niño Watch
Neutral ENSO conditions are present. El Niño conditions are confidently forecast from mid-2026 to early 2027. El Niño conditions may develop soon—during May to July 2026 (61 percent chance)—and could become a moderate or strong event. According to the April 2026 NOAA CPC ENSO outlook, there is an 87 to 92 percent chance of El Niño conditions from July 2026 to January 2027. The likelihood of extreme conditions during the coming year will increase as El Niño warms global temperatures.
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, the Sahel region, Southern Africa, India, Northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
During May 2026, above-average temperatures are forecast in West Africa, East Africa, central Southern Africa and Madagascar, central and northern Asia, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, western Canada, the western United States, northern Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and northern and central South America.
Average temperature anomaly forecast for the next 30 days starting on 26 March 2026, from four Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models. SubC data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Global Two-week Precipitation Forecast
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over central Mexico, northern and northeast Brazil, southern Norway, southwestern Sweden, Estonia, eastern Latvia, northeastern Lithuania, central Russia, southern South Sudan, northern and western Uganda, eastern and central Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, northcentral South Africa, western Kazakhstan, northwestern Turkmenistan, western Uzbekistan, southern China, Indonesia, and eastern Australia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over central and western Canada, western Cuba, southern Guatemala, Honduras, eastern El Salvador, western Nicaragua, southern Costa Rica, northern Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, southeastern Bolivia, Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern and central Argentina, southern Chile, Portugal, Spain, southern Italy, southern Albania, southern Greece, northern Russian Federation, western Türkiye, Syria, northern Morocco, northern Algeria, southern Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, southern Mali, western and southern Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria, southeastern Chad, western Ethiopia, northeastern Tanzania, northern Madagascar, western South Africa, northern and eastern Kazakhstan, central Uzbekistan, southern Mongolia, northern and southwestern China, central India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Viet Nam, Cambodia, southern Japan, and the central and southern Philippines.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 – 22 May, issued on 1 May 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Australia Outlook
The May 2026 outlook indicates likely below-average precipitation over parts of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, northern Tanzania, and southwestern Western Australia. During this time, maximum temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the country except for parts of Western Australia, northern Queensland, Tasmania, and the northern areas of the Northern Territory. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above-average over Western Australia, Tasmania, and coastal regions of South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland.
Top: April 2026 precipitation anomaly forecast. Bottom Left: April 2026 maximum temperature probability forecast. Bottom Right: April 2026 minimum temperature probability forecast. Maps from the India Meteorological Department
India Outlook
The forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season (June – September) precipitation from the India Meteorological Department indicates that the rainfall for the country will likely be below-average, 92% (±5%) of the long-term average (1971-2020). The primary driver for the forecasted reduction in precipitation is the likely development of El Niño during the season, as El Niño tends to suppress precipitation in South Asia. Regionally, the only areas currently forecasted to receive above-average precipitation are in the Northwest region, the Northeast region, and parts of the Southcentral region.
During this time, both maximum daytime and minimum overnight temperatures are forecasted to be above-average according to WMO.
Probability forecast of the tercile categories for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season (June – September). Maps from the India Meteorological Department
United States Outlook
The May 2026 precipitation forecast indicates likely above-average precipitation in New Mexico, southeastern Arizona, central and southern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama, while below-average precipitation is likely over the Pacific Northwest, Northern and Central Plains, and the western and northwestern Corn Belt. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the western half of the US and Florida, with the highest likelihood over the Pacific Northwest, while below-average temperatures are likely over the central and eastern Corn Belt and the Mid-Atlantic region.
The impacts of May’s weather outlook are the likely continuation of drought over the western US and most of the Southeast, while drought is likely to expand over parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Plains. At the same time, drought conditions are likely to improve or be removed over parts of eastern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama.
Upper Left: May 2026 precipitation outlook issued on 30 April 2026. Upper Right: May 2026 temperature outlook issued on 30 April 2026. Bottom: May 2026 drought outlook released on 30 April 2026. Maps from NOAA CPC and NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Climate Prediction Center.