Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 141: Published August 6th 2026
Conditions as of July 28th
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Overview
At the end of July, overall conditions are positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, winter wheat harvesting is continuing under mixed conditions. In the Southern Hemisphere, conditions are favourable. For maize, conditions are generally favourable; however, hot, dry weather has negatively affected crops in Europe and parts of South and Southeast Asia. For rice, dry weather is a concern in parts of southern India, Thailand, and southern Viet Nam. For soybeans, conditions are generally favourable in the northern hemisphere but have deteriorated in parts of Europe.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crops under non-favourable conditions are displayed on the map using their crop symbols.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the Northern Hemisphere, winter wheat harvesting is continuing under mixed conditions. In the Southern Hemisphere, conditions are favourable.
Maize – Conditions are generally favourable; however, hot, dry weather has negatively affected crops in Europe and parts of South and Southeast Asia.
Rice – Dry weather is a concern in parts of southern India, Thailand, and southern Viet Nam.
Soybeans – In the Northern Hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable, though they have deteriorated in parts of Europe.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – El Niño conditions are present. This will most likely be a very strong event (81% chance), ranking among the strongest since 1950. El Niño conditions are forecast through April 2027.
Europe - As of mid-July, drought alerts had expanded across many countries. The August forecast indicates highly likely above-average temperatures across Europe, which will likely maintain or expand the current areas suffering from drought.
Southeast Asia - Over the next 30 days, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the southern Philippines may likely see below-average rainfall, while Laos, the western Philippines, and Thailand may likely see above-average rainfall.
United States – The August forecast indicates likely above-average temperatures across most of the country along with below-average precipitation in the central South and above-average precipitation in northern New England and the Southwest.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of June 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
In the EU, above-average yields in Bulgaria and Romania are being offset by below-average yields in parts of western and central Europe due to recent extremely hot and dry weather. In Türkiye, winter wheat harvest continues with exceptional yields. In Ukraine, harvesting is ongoing with above-average yields away from the war front. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat harvesting is underway with above-average yields in the south. Spring wheat conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some drought concerns in parts of Siberia. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat harvesting continues as spring wheat develops. In China, spring wheat is under favourable conditions. In the US, winter wheat harvest continues with below-average yields due to drought in the Great Plains and along the East Coast. Spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Canada, conditions are favourable for both spring and winter wheat. The harvest has begun for winter wheat. In Australia, conditions are mostly favourable to exceptional; however, dryness persists in Queensland. In Argentina, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions with minor delays in the south due to overly wet soils.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of July 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
In Brazil, the harvest of the summer-planted crop (larger season) progresses under favourable conditions. In the US, conditions remain generally favourable, despite recent hot weather. There is a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable, with good development. In Mexico, harvest is wrapping up for the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) while sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season) continues. In China, both the spring-maize crop (larger season) and the summer-maize crop (smaller season) are under favourable conditions. In India, sowing of the Kharif crop (larger season) is progressing under mixed conditions due to the slow advance and reduced rainfall of this year’s Southwest Monsoon. In Indonesia, sowing of the dry-season crop continues with a total sown area increase compared to last year. Harvesting of earlier sown crops begins under favourable conditions. In the EU, recent extremely hot and dry weather has cut yields across large parts of Europe, most notably in Czechia, France, Germany, and Slovakia. In Ukraine, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some drought developing in the southern regions. In the Russian Federation, conditions are favourable.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of July 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
In China, conditions are favourable for early double-crop rice (smallest season) and for single-season rice (largest season). There is a reduction in total sown area for early double-crop rice compared to last year. In India, sowing of the Kharif crop is beginning under mixed conditions due to the slow-moving Southwest Monsoon. In Bangladesh, the Aus crop (smallest season) develops as sowing continues for the Aman crop (medium season). In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice is finishing as sowing continues for dry-season rice. In Viet Nam, the harvest is ongoing for winter-spring rice (dry-season rice) in the north, while in the south, summer-autumn rice (wet-season rice) is in the sowing and tillering stages. In Thailand, sowing of wet-season rice is continuing under mixed conditions due to drought and reduced fertilizer availability. There is a reduction in total sown area compared to last year due to lower rice prices and rising production costs. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on national and regional crop analyst inputs and earth observation data. Crop condition information is based on information as of July 28th. Where crops are in conditions other than favourable, the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. Crop Season Specific Maps can be found in Appendix 2.
In the US, conditions remain generally favourable despite the recent heat. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable with only minor areas with surplus moisture issues. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In China, conditions are favourable with crops in the vegetative to reproductive stages. In Ukraine, conditions are generally favourable away from the war front. However, medium-intensity soil drought is developing in the southern and southern-central regions. In India, sowing is progressing and entering the final stages slightly behind normal due to the slow advance and reduced rainfall from this year’s Southwest Monsoon.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.
Climate Influences: El Niño Watch
El Niño conditions are present. This will most likely be a very strong event (81% chance for October to December 2026, according to the July 2026 NOAA ENSO outlook), ranking among the strongest since 1950. El Niño conditions are forecast through April 2027 (97% chance).
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, the Sahel region, Southern Africa, India, Northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia. Thus far in the 2026 El Niño, severe rainfall deficits have developed in East Africa, Central America, India, and Southeast Asia.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast for September through December 2026, with a strong event possible. Positive weekly IOD values from the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the event is developing. A positive IOD tends to enhance the drying influence of El Niño over Australia and the Maritime Continent and substantially increase the likelihood of a wet and intense East Africa short rains season.
The timing of wet and dry conditions based on Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation (green and brown polygons), and sea surface temperature departures from average during July September (blue and red shading), related to the IOD. The regions used to define the Dipole Mode Index are outlined in black.
During late July through early August 2026, abnormally hot temperatures are forecast in agricultural areas of the western, central and southeastern United States, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, northern Colombia, central Brazil, southern and central Europe, the Sahel region, East Africa, Yemen, southern and northern India, Pakistan, central Asia, northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula, southern Japan, central Myanmar, central Indonesia, and the northern Philippines.
CHC AgriHeat Forecast for July 30 to August 13, 2026. Forecast 15-day average maximum temperatures are shown where they will be abnormally hot (Tmax > 80th percentile and > 30 C) and in active crop-growing areas. Areas with forecasted below-average rainfall for this period are also identified. Based on a 15-day CHIRTS-GEFS forecast from June 26, 2026. From UCSB Climate Hazards Center. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Global Two-week Precipitation Forecast
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over the western US, central and southeastern Brazil, eastern Bolivia, eastern Paraguay, northern Chile, southern Argentina, southeastern Madagascar, northcentral Mongolia, the eastern Russian Federation, southwestern and southern China, and southeastern Australia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over central and western Canada, the Midwest and southern US, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, western Nicaragua, western Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, western Colombia, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and northeastern Brazil, southeastern Argentina, southern Chile, Ireland, the western United Kingdom, northern Spain, France, Belgium, Germany, southern Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, central Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, Greece, the southern and eastern Russian Federation, western Mauritania, Senegal, eastern Mali, southern Sierra Leone, Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, central Niger, southwestern Nigeria, central Chad, central Sudan, southeastern South Sudan, Eritrea, southwestern and northeastern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, the central and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, the central Republic of the Congo, southern Gabon, northern Angola, northeastern Mozambique, Yemen, Oman, Kazakhstan, northern Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, central eastern Afghanistan, Pakistan, western and southern India, Sri Lanka, central and northwestern China, the Republic of Korea, southern Myanmar, central Cambodia, the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northeastern and southwestern Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 August 2026, issued on 31 July 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Europe Outlook
In Europe, drought alerts as of mid-July exist over parts of England, northern Spain, France, southern Germany, northern Switzerland, northern Italy, Czechia, northwestern Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, eastern Poland, Belarus, southern and western Ukraine, western Romania, northern and southern Serbia, central North Macedonia, and central Bulgaria. Additionally, drought warnings and watch conditions cover parts of most countries.
The August 2026 outlook indicates likely above-average precipitation over parts of Portugal, Spain, southern France, central Italy, southwestern Greece, and southern Türkiye, while below-average precipitation is likely over western Ireland, the northern United Kingdom, eastern Belgium, the eastern Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, southern Norway, southern Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Czechia, eastern Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, northern Romania, western Ukraine, Belarus, and western Ukraine. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across all of Europe, which will produce high evapotranspiration demand from crops, likely maintaining and expanding areas of drought.
Top: 11-20 July 2026 drought conditions over Europe from the European Drought Observatory. Bottom Left: August 2026 precipitation probability forecast. Bottom Right: August 2026 temperature probability forecast. Maps from the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Southeast Asia Outlook
In southeastern mainland areas in Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, in the Philippines, and in southern Indonesia, prevailing drier-than-average conditions led to moderate to severe rainfall deficits, as of July 25th. Below-average rainfall was observed during recent weeks, from June 26th to July 25th, in Thailand, northern and eastern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, central and southern Vietnam, the Philippines, and central and southern Indonesia (Figure 1-left). In Thailand and southern Vietnam, this especially dry period resulted in central and northern areas receiving 30 to less than 75 percent of average rainfall.
Seasonal rainfall deficits are severe in parts of Thailand, central and southern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, and in the northeastern Philippines. April 1st to August 10th rainfall totals in these southeastern mainland deficit areas will likely range from less than 60 to 75 percent of average, even if the forecast above-average rainfall during July 26th to August 10th materializes (Figure 1 middle-left). The persistently drier-than-average conditions have coincided with typical wet-season crop sowing and early development in Thailand, southern Cambodia, Vietnam, and the Philippines.
The Philippines could observe mixed rainfall conditions in August (Figure 1 middle-right), though below-normal rainfall conditions are forecast to return and continue through September to November 2026 (Figure 1 right). In rainfall deficit areas of Thailand, forecast above-normal next 30-day rainfall totals are largely driven by wetter-than-normal conditions during the first two weeks. SubC models indicate a possible return to below-average rainfall later during mid-late August in these areas.
Indonesia’s 2026 dry season has been intense, with long dry spells and excessive fire hot spots. The extreme dry conditions in southern Indonesia will very likely continue during August to November 2026, according to forecasts for rainfall (Figure 1 middle-right and right), a strong or very strong El Niño, and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Temperatures have recently been abnormally hot in southern Indonesia and parts of the southeastern mainland, southern Thailand, and in the eastern Philippines. Highly above-average temperatures will very likely be observed in the region into next year.
Left and middle-left: CHC Early Estimates for recent rainfall (left) and an April 1 to August 10 outlook (middle-left). Early Estimates compare current rainfall totals to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS average for the same accumulation period. These use CHIRPS 3 Final data for April to June 2026, Preliminary data for July 1–25, 2026, and a bias-adjusted NCEP GEFS forecast (CHIRPS3-GEFS) for the 16-day forecast from July 26. Middle-right: SubC multimodel 30-day rainfall tercile probability forecast for July 30 to August 28, 2026. Colors show the dominant category forecast by four Subseasonal Consortium models, using terciles identified from 1999–2016 hindcasts. From UCSB CHC SubC. SubC data acquired from the IRI Data Library. Right: ECMWF and NMME 3-month multimodel ensemble forecast rainfall tercile probability for September to November 2026, from UCSB CHC MME.
United States Outlook
The August 2026 precipitation forecast indicates likely above-average precipitation over parts of northern New England, the Great Basin, the central Rockies, and the Southwest, while below-average precipitation is likely over western Washington, northwestern Oregon, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above average across most of the country except for the Northern Plains, the northern Great Lakes Region, and New England, where chances are equal for above- or below-average temperatures.
The impacts of August’s weather outlook are the likely development or expansion of drought conditions over parts of western Washington, northwestern Oregon, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, northern Texas, and western Arkansas. At the same time, drought conditions are likely to improve or be removed over parts of the East Coast, the Great Basin, the Southwest, and the central Rockies.
Upper Left: August 2026 precipitation outlook issued on 31 July 2026. Upper Right: August 2026 temperature outlook issued on 31 July 2026. Bottom: August 2026 drought outlook released on 31 July 2026. Maps from NOAA CPC and NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Climate Prediction Center.