Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 104: Published May 1st, 2025
Conditions as of April 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, dry conditions continue to impact crop development despite recent rainfall improvement, and average to above-average precipitation is expected in western areas through July.
In West Africa, planting is ramping up with generally favourable conditions despite some localized rainfall deficits.
In the Middle East & North Africa, the wheat harvest is underway, and below-average rains received this season could reduce yields across many areas.
In Southern Africa, harvest is nearing completion, and mid-season rainfall improvements significantly benefitted crop development, except in parts of Angola, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, and South Africa where concern remains.
In Central & South Asia, while favourable yields are expected for winter wheat crops, there is concern for spring wheat due to dry conditions that are forecast to continue through July in most areas.
In Southeast Asia, rice harvests are progressing well overall, though some localized damage occurred in Myanmar from a recent earthquake.
In Central America & the Caribbean, land preparation for the Primera season is underway. Dry conditions are forecast from July to September, but an active hurricane season could bring sporadic heavy downpours.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: In the north, rainfall delays and deficits are impacting the start of planting in South Sudan, Yemen, and north and central Ethiopia (Belg season). In the south, dry conditions are impacting main season crops in parts of Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, and Burundi. However, average to above-average rains are likely in western areas through July (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6).
WEST AFRICA: Planting of main season cereals is ramping up along the Gulf of Guinea while harvesting of second season rice is nearing completion along the Sahel, and agro-climatic conditions remain favourable for ongoing crop development despite recent localized rainfall deficits.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Wheat harvesting is just beginning, and poor precipitation outcomes are expected to reduce yields in Morocco, northwestern Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and northeastern Iran.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion, and generally adequate rainfall performance this season is expected to result in favourable outcomes, except in parts of Angola, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, and South Africa that experienced drier than normal conditions and in parts of Mozambique impacted by Cyclone Jude and ongoing conflict.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat crops, which will mostly be harvested from June. Conversely, early season dry conditions are impacting spring wheat planting in parts of southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia. Dry and hot conditions are expected to continue through July in most areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12).
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Harvesting of wet-season rice is nearing completion in the south while harvesting of dry-season rice continues in the north, and generally adequate weather outcomes have contributed to favourable yield prospects, except in localized rice production areas of Myanmar that may have been impacted by the March earthquake.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Land preparation is underway for the Primera season, and planting is expected to commence in May across most areas. Moderate rainfall deficits are expected for the beginning of the season and could materialize during mid-season crop development. Conversely, a likely active hurricane season could bring sporadic heavy rains and resultant flooding (See Regional Outlook Pg. 16). In Haiti, there is emerging concern regarding overly wet conditions received over the last month that could damage Printemps season crops.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the southern Great Plains in the US, northeastern Mexico, northern Colombia, northern and northwest Venezuela, western Ecuador, central Peru, central Brazil, Portugal, Spain, northern Algeria, northcentral Libya, central northeast Egypt, Jordan, western Yemen, southern Côte d'Ivoire, northeastern Nigeria, southern Chad, northern Cameroon, southern Sudan, southern and central South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, southern and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, central and southern Republic of the Congo, southern Gabon, northern Angola, northeast Zambia, southern Botswana, central South Africa, northeast Mozambique, northern Madagascar, northern Pakistan, northern India, western Nepal, northeast China, Far east of the Russian Federation, northern Japan, southern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the US Midwest and the Mississippi Valley, southern Mexico, Guatemala, eastern Nicaragua, Suriname, French Guiana, northeast and southern Brazil, eastern Bolivia, northern and southern Paraguay, eastern Argentina, central Chile, Uruguay, Ireland, England, southern Norway, southern Sweden, southern Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, western Belarus, Poland, eastern Germany, northern France, Ukraine, eastern Russian Federation, southern and eastern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, northern and western Afghanistan, eastern and western Turkmenistan, northeastern Iran, northcentral and southwest China, southern and central Japan, central Myanmar, Thailand, northern Laos, northern Viet Nam, western Cambodia, northern Indonesia, and central Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 3 - 16 May 2025, issued on 25 April 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: ENSO-neutral conditions present and likely to continue through October 2025
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely through October 2025 (91 to 52 percent chances), according to the CPC/IRI outlook. There is limited long-range ENSO predictability at this time of the year. Currently, the CPC/IRI predicts similar chances of neutral or La Niña conditions near the end of 2025 to early 2026 and lower chances of El Niño conditions during that time.
Global temperatures for March 2025 were the second warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin.
Forecast above-average temperatures during late April to late May in northwestern India and Pakistan indicate that impactful heat waves may continue in these countries. In Afghanistan, forecast hotter and drier-than-normal conditions elevate risks of negative impacts on rainfed crops and rapid reductions in snowpack.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, wheat harvesting finalized in Sudan with poor yields expected due to impacts from ongoing conflict throughout the agricultural season. Planting of main season cereals is just beginning in South Sudan and Yemen, and there is concern in most areas due to a delayed rainfall onset and generally dry conditions for the start of the season. However, conditions in the northeast and southeast of South Sudan are favourable as rainfall outcomes in the past several months leading up to this season have been generally adequate (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). In Ethiopia, Belg season maize is in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from June, and drier than normal conditions are impacting the central and northern regions. Conversely, growing conditions in the southwest are favourable. Furthermore, socio-economic challenges continue to influence production outcomes in areas of northern Ethiopia impacted by the prior conflict situation.
Across southern East Africa, main season cereals are in the planting or vegetative to reproductive stages in Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania. Overall conditions are mixed as erratic rainfall outcomes this season are impacting cropping activities in much of Uganda, bimodal areas of eastern Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, and Burundi.
The March to May (MAM) 2025 rainy season began earlier than normal to on time in most areas. Despite earlier forecasts of expected dry conditions for the eastern Horn of Africa, the passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation in March contributed to good rainfall performance for the start of the season, particularly in eastern Kenya and southern Somalia. However, parts of western Kenya and central and northern Ethiopia experienced a delayed onset by several weeks. Additionally, rainfall was below average in recent weeks across several west and northern areas, and dry conditions are expected for most regions from late April through early May. However, a shift to possible above-average precipitation for the May to July period could improve deficit areas, except in northern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia where below-normal rains are expected (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6).
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, the agricultural sector has been severely affected by conflict, with two consecutive farming seasons impacted by farmer displacement, destroyed cropland, looted equipment, and disrupted supply routes. The ongoing crisis also threatens the upcoming June planting season. With around two-thirds of the population relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, there is increasing concern for worsening food security conditions. Famine has been confirmed in several areas and is projected to increase. In South Sudan, planting of first season cereals is just beginning, and rainfall delays and deficits are impacting most areas. Seasonal rains typically start in April but have varied in performance, and below-average rains in western parts of Western Equatoria have negatively impacted soil moisture levels and vegetation conditions. Conversely, planting conditions are favourable in the unimodal regions of Nile Sobat located in the northeastern quadrant of the country and in Kapoeta located in the southeast due to comparatively better rainfall performance in recent weeks (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). In Ethiopia, Belg season maize crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from June, and below-average rains continue to impact central and northern areas of the country. In the central region, good rains in March were followed by mixed performance in April, which could influence the water availability for crops. Additionally, socio-economic concerns relating to the prior conflict situation continue to disrupt production in the north, particularly in Amhara where recent conflict incidents may hinder ongoing cultivation. Conversely, enhanced rains in recent weeks improved conditions in the southwest (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). In Yemen, planting of main season sorghum continues with ongoing concern due to rainfall delays and deficits. Additionally, desert locusts that are currently present in Afghanistan may travel further southwest as swarms breed and migrate in the coming months.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, planting for the 2025 Gu season is just beginning with concern regarding erratic rains received this season. A delayed start to the April to June Gu rains was followed by moderate to heavy precipitation over many areas from mid-April, particularly in Puntland and South West States where flooding has been reported. The area under cultivation is low due to earlier expectations of dry conditions, and crop establishment is still limited in many areas. Additionally, forecast below-average precipitation amounts this season across southern areas could negatively impact crop development (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). In Kenya, planting of Long Rains maize is underway throughout the country. In the bimodal eastern half of the country, delayed and erratic rainfall performance this season has negatively impacted cropping activities, especially in parts of Kwale and Taita Taveta regions located in the southeast. Many farmers planted later than normal due to the expected dry conditions, and despite significant rainfall improvements over the last month, a potential on-time cessation of rains could mean that crops may not have adequate time to fully develop. Conversely, conditions in the central region are favourable, though heavy rains currently being received could result in localized flooding and crop damage (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). In the unimodal western half of the country, start of season conditions are favourable. Additionally, second season rice is developing under favourable conditions in central and western parts of the country with sufficient irrigation water availability. In Uganda, first season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage in bimodal regions while planting is just beginning in unimodal regions of the north. There are ongoing dry concerns in most areas as mixed rainfall performance has affected crop establishment and development due to wilting. Conversely, crops are progressing favourably in the east where rainfall and vegetation conditions are adequate. Forecast wetter than normal conditions in most areas through July could negatively impact crops approaching the maturity stage (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). Heavy rains could constrain the drying of mature crops or result in waterlogging or flood damage, particularly in low-lying areas, which could increase post-harvest losses. In Rwanda, Season B maize is in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and while rainfall outcomes slightly improved in April, overall season performance has been sub-optimal, and remaining pockets of below-normal vegetation conditions could negatively impact final yields. In Burundi, Season B maize crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage while planting of Season B rice is underway, and there are ongoing dry concerns. Parts of the northeast received below-average cumulative rains, which could result in crop wilting. While vegetation conditions are near normal in the northwest, lingering pockets of below-normal rains could affect crop establishment. In bimodal areas along the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, Masika season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from July. In unimodal areas, Msimu season cereals are also in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from May. Overall growing conditions are favourable despite pockets of dry conditions in the central areas, and crops along the northern coast have recovered from prior dry concerns. However, in late March, continuous heavy rainfall and strong winds impacted crops and food stocks in Ulanga District of Morogoro region located in the centre-south of the country.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Below-average rains forecast across much of the region in early May, followed by above-average rains in western areas
During recent weeks, rainfall conditions were mixed in East Africa. March 21st to April 20th rainfall was below average in several western and northern regions. Areas of western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Somalia, and central and northern Ethiopia received below-average rains. Rains were above average across Kenya, southern and central Somalia, central South Sudan, portions of southern and northern Tanzania, and portions of western, southern and eastern Ethiopia. Localized areas of southern Somalia, Kenya, and southern Tanzania received very high amounts, ranging from 100 to 300 mm above average (Figure 1-left). Heavy rains in April caused flooding in parts of Kenya and Somalia. In Kenya, about 200 families were displaced in Isiolo due to the flooding (Reliefweb) and over 200 families in Nairobi’s informal settlements (The Standard). In Somalia, fatalities have been reported in Puntland and Baidoa where flash floods inundated low-lying settlements and affected about 30,000 .
During the next two weeks, the CHIRPS-GEFS (Figure 1 middle-right) and ECMWF forecasts indicate below-average rains across most of East Africa. Rainfall deficits are likely to increase into early May in central, eastern, and northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. Poor rainfall distribution and amounts in central and northern Somalia and northern Ethiopia raise concerns about growing agroclimatic stress and potential negative impacts on yields (Ethiopia and East Africa Agroclimate Monitoring Report). Areas of southern Tanzania are likely to receive above-average rains.
Several weeks of below-average rainfall during late March to early May, based on recent estimates and the two-week forecast (Figure 1 middle-left), raise concerns about potential negative crop impacts during reproductive growth stages in Rwanda, Burundi, and southern Uganda. While the NMME and WMO forecasts indicate above-normal May rainfall in these areas, variable timing of rains could impact crops.
NMME, WMO, and C3S multi-model ensemble forecasts point to above-normal May-to-July (MJJ) rains in western areas, with less agreement across eastern areas. According to the WMO, there are 50% to 80% chances of above-normal MJJ rainfall in Sudan, eastern and southern South Sudan, western and southwestern Ethiopia, northwestern Kenya, western Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi (Figure 1-right). Long-range forecasts also indicate above-normal July-to-September rainfall in some northern areas, including in Sudan and eastern South Sudan. If forecasts materialize there could be elevated chances of flooding in this region.
Forecasts from both the NMME and WMO models indicate suppressed May rainfall is likely in eastern Kenya and southern Somalia (Figure 1-right), with the NMME also projecting below-average rains in northern Ethiopia (not shown). These forecasts raise concerns about an early cessation of the Gu rains in Somalia, which could negatively impact agricultural activities and water availability. In northern Ethiopia, where onset of the season was delayed (see CHC April 2025 Blog) and March 1st to April 20th rainfall totals are 30% to 45% below average, continued dry conditions may further exacerbate water stress and impact crop development. Close monitoring will be essential as the season progresses.
Figure 1: Recent and forecast rainfall anomalies and a 3-month probabilistic forecast for rainfall.
Left and middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average, for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the precipitation anomaly (mm) for March 21st to April 20th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for April. The left-middle panel includes a 16-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from April 21st, and compares the total to the historical average for the same period, 1981-2024. Middle-right: A 16-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast from April 24th, 2025 with values indicating how the forecast compares to the CHIRPS average for this period. Right: WMO probabilistic forecasts for May to July 2025 precipitation tercile, based on models initialized in April, from the WMO Lead Center Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, planting of main season cereals is ramping up along the Gulf of Guinea, including in Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Nigeria, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, planting of second season cereals is underway in southern Cameroon. Along the Sahel, harvesting of second season rice finalized in Mali and is nearing completion in Mauritania. According to CHIRPS, rainfall totals from March 1 to April 10 were above average in southern areas of West Africa, from Liberia to the Central African Republic, with localized areas receiving more than 300 mm in southern Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire, southern Nigeria, and southwestern Cameroon. However, there is a slight precipitation deficit in southwestern Ghana and a moderate to severe deficit in southwestern Côte d’Ivoire and eastern Liberia. Despite the localized deficits, agro-climatic conditions remain favourable for ongoing cropping activities throughout West Africa. However, concern remains in areas impacted by persistent conflict, including in central Mali, southwestern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic.
In Nigeria, ongoing conflict in the north continues to influence agricultural activities. Additionally, elevated input prices as well as limited loan access due in part to high interest rates are expected to constrain production levels across the country. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency forecasts average to above-average rainfall amounts this season; however, a potential delayed rainfall onset in some central and northern areas could negatively affect planting operations. In the Central African Republic, below-average rains are forecast for the April to June period, which may negatively impact planting and early crop development. Additionally, ongoing conflict and related displacement continue to negatively influence farmers’ access to agricultural inputs and fields.
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, wheat harvesting is just beginning in Morocco and Tunisia while crops continue to develop across Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Poor precipitation this season is expected to reduce yields in Morocco, northwestern Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and northeastern Iran, with ongoing conflict disruptions contributing to poor yields in Lebanon and Syria. The dry conditions are also causing concern for potential yield declines in parts of Algeria, northeastern Libya, northern Iraq, and central and southern Iran, though recovery is still possible in these areas. Conversely, wetter-than-normal conditions received earlier in the season are hampering yield prospects in northwestern Algeria. Furthermore, desert locust outbreaks are spreading across northwestern Africa, and spring breeding is expected in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. Adult groups and small swarms are expected from May to June that could progress south towards the Sahel. Some small farms in Algeria and Libya may see minor losses, though cereal production in most North African countries is unlikely to be significantly affected.
In Tunisia, dry conditions at the start of planting in October and November 2024 were followed by a shift to abundant rainfall in January 2025 that improved soil moisture in the north. A combination of generally conducive weather outcomes as well as financial support from the government to expand the planted area are expected to benefit wheat outputs this season. Additionally, if good weather conditions persist into May and support harvesting activities, yields are likely to be above average. In Egypt, sowing of summer-planted rice is just beginning, and the government is still determining the extent of rice-producing areas and whether there will be an expansion this year. In Syria, delayed rainfall onset this season was followed by early season drought between November 2024 and January 2025. The dry start to the season in combination with ongoing conflict disrupted wheat planting activities, and overall yield and production prospects are below average. Generally high input prices have prompted farmers to shift to more profitable crops like spices rather than cereals. In Iraq, low precipitation and dry spells received at the beginning of the season between October 2024 and February 2025 delayed planting activities and reduced the overall planted area. Despite improvements in March, yields are expected to be below average in northern rainfed parts of the country. Conversely, vegetation conditions are better in the central and southern regions where irrigation was used. Overall wheat output is expected to be below average due to a combination of a dry start to the season and despite the provision of subsidized seeds, inputs, and mechanization services this season. Additionally, rice planting is just beginning in key producing regions under favourable conditions and is expected to conclude in June. Biomass levels are above average in most producing regions, including Diyala, Wassit, Babil, and Qadisiyah located in the central-east of the country. In Iran, wheat harvesting began in the southern provinces in mid-April and is expected to start in June in the northern provinces, including in the key-producing Golestan province. The Ministry of Agriculture expects wheat production of 9 to 11 million metric tons this year, a decline from 16 million metric tons in 2024, due to low rainfall outcomes this season. Vegetation biomass rebounded in March following irrigation use, and recent rainfall improvements in the west and northwest could improve overall yields. However, seasonal rainfall amounts from November 2024 to April 2025 remain below average, and dry conditions are expected to return for the coming months.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion in most regions and is expected to finalize in May and June across Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini. Despite erratic rainfall and some extended dry spells earlier in the season, conditions are generally favourable with near-average yields and production expected in most areas, except in southern Angola, southern Zambia, northern Malawi, eastern Madagascar, and central South Africa where drier than normal conditions could negatively impact cropping outcomes and in central and northeastern Mozambique where a combination of storm impacts and ongoing conflict are likely to reduce yields. In central South Africa, wetter-than-normal conditions are also disrupting the ongoing harvest.
According to CHIRPS data, seasonal rainfall from October 2024 through late April 2025 was generally average to above average in most areas, except in some northern parts of the subregion as well as parts of southern South Africa, southern Mozambique, and much of central and northern Madagascar where precipitation was below average. The generally good rainfall performance this season has benefitted crop development and is expected to result in improved outcomes compared to the 2024 season when a combination of El Niño-induced drought, high temperatures, and a record mid-season dry spell resulted in poor to failure yield outcomes in many areas.
Furthermore, land preparation and planting for the 2025 wheat season is just beginning in Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho, and the start of season conditions are currently favourable.
In southern Angola, irregular rainfall received throughout the season could reduce final yields. However, there are currently no severe adverse impacts on crops or livestock. In Zambia, mixed rainfall performance throughout the season could negatively impact cropping outcomes, particularly in Southern, Western, and Lusaka provinces located in the south of the country, which have recorded below-average rainfall totals characterised by severe deficits. In Mozambique, crops in the northeast are likely to be impacted by the passage of Cyclone Jude across Nampula province in March as well as ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado province. In the south, poor rainfall performance in December 2024 and again in March and April 2025 may slightly reduce production outcomes, though yield prospects remain near-average. In South Africa, maize harvesting is nearing completion, and conditions are mostly favourable except in the key-producing Free State Province where dry conditions earlier in the season are being compounded by overly wet conditions that are now preventing adequate drying of crops for harvest, which could degrade yields to below-average levels. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of main season sorghum and second season maize is underway in the centre and southeast while planting and development of both crops continue in the north and east. Rainfall outcomes since October have been average to slightly below average, except in the east and west where precipitation outcomes were average to slightly above average. In April, torrential rains triggered severe flooding in Tanganyika Province located in the east, causing the Rugumba River to burst its banks and resulting in damage to agricultural land. Similarly, heavy rainfall since early April has resulted in flooding and landslides in Kinasha, the country’s capital located in the west. Furthermore, the recent escalation of conflict in eastern provinces is proliferating food insecurity, including in Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Tanganyika. Despite the erratic rainfall outcomes and expanding conflict, overall conditions remain favourable.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, wheat harvesting is underway in Pakistan and Afghanistan while crops continue to develop in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan for harvest from June. Conditions remain favourable with near-average yields expected, except in the rainfed barani areas of eastern Pakistan that were impacted by drought this season. In Afghanistan, adequate rainfall timing and distribution benefitted crop growing this season despite below-average amounts received. Additionally, spring wheat planting is now underway in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia, and early season dry conditions are impacting planting progress in most areas. Forecast drier and hotter than normal conditions through July are likely to negatively impact crop development in areas that are not able to supplement with irrigation (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12).
In Afghanistan, wheat harvesting is underway in some east, south, and southeastern provinces and is expected to continue through July in the central highlands and higher elevations of Badakhshan Province. Despite below-average rainfall performance this season, particularly in the rainfed belt of the north and northeast, growing conditions remain favourable due to generally timely and well-distributed precipitation as well as the use of groundwater for irrigated agriculture. Cumulative precipitation was below average from the start of the season in October 2024 through April 2025, which negatively impacted soil moisture levels and crop establishment for rainfed areas. Conversely, January and February rainfall improvements received in south and central areas benefitted crops that emerged from dormancy in early March, and groundwater was used to supplement water needs for irrigated areas. However, a forecast continuation of below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures through July could negatively impact the upcoming harvest, particularly for rainfed crops, depending on the elevation and temperature of each region. Snow water amounts are also currently much lower than normal, particularly in the northeast where basins are close to record minimums, marking the sixth year in a row with below-average amounts. Inadequate snow cover this season resulted in winterkill in some localized northern areas, and high temperatures led to rapid snowmelt from mid-March in most basins. Low snow water availability in combination with a forecast continuation of drier and hotter than normal conditions could constrain surface water resources for wheat and for second season rice and maize, which are primarily irrigated (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). This could in turn prompt higher rates of groundwater extraction which may increase salinization of the soil, particularly in the south around the Hilmand areas where salinization has already occurred. Overall wheat production amounts are currently expected to be near average but could be negatively affected by a relatively lower output for the rainfed crops. Additionally, desert locusts are present in several provinces of the north, northeast, and central highlands, though no crop damage has been reported. Furthermore, this year’s June/July through September monsoon season is projected to be stronger than normal, which could support second season crop production in east and southern provinces but could also result in flash flooding. In Tajikistan, near to above-average precipitation amounts received in the main producing Khatlon Region located in the southwest supported crop growth for the winter wheat season. Near-average snow cover is also providing adequate dormancy conditions. Conversely, early-season dry conditions are impacting spring wheat planting, which is mostly rainfed. In Pakistan, harvesting of Rabi season crops is just beginning, and generally near-average yields are expected, except in the rainfed barani areas of northern Punjab that were impacted by drought conditions this season. Maize planting is just beginning under favourable conditions.
Regional Outlook: Drier-than-average conditions are forecast to continue through July in most areas
During recent weeks, from March 21st to April 20th, 2025, below-average precipitation occurred in Afghanistan—in central, southern, and northwestern areas—and central Pakistan and southern Turkmenistan. Above-average precipitation occurred in northeastern Afghanistan, Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan, and southern Kyrgyzstan. Across much of Afghanistan, cumulative precipitation since October remains below average and lower than last year. Rainfed cropping areas in northwestern and central Afghanistan appear likely to receive a small fraction of typical rainfall in April, and this may impact the yield and productivity of rainfed wheat. Irrigated wheat will likely remain largely unaffected due to groundwater serving as a convenient substitute for surface water.
The precipitation outlook for October 1st, 2024, to May 5th, 2025 (Figure 1 top middle), illustrates the persistence of drier-than-average conditions in the region since the start of the winter cropping season, which are forecast to continue during late April to early May, and during May to July (Figure 1 bottom-left). October 2024 to mid-April 2025 precipitation amounts were mainly below average to average (75 to 110 percent of average) across central-southern areas, and substantially below-average (60 to 75 percent of average) in central, southern, and western Afghanistan.
Snow water amounts in and near Afghanistan are much lower than usual for late April. Cumulative seasonal snowfall amounts are below average for the 6th year in a row and are similar to 2024. A very early end of the main snow season is possible. April’s abnormally warm weather led to substantial declines in snow water levels, and forecast below-average late-April to early-May precipitation and abnormally high temperatures would continue this declining trend. As a result of the recent rapid snowmelt, streamflow increased in some rivers, such as in northern and eastern Afghanistan.
Drier and much hotter-than-normal conditions will likely continue during May to July (Figure 1-bottom-left and bottom-right). These forecasts along with the recent dry conditions could impact rainfed wheat and other non-irrigated crops. Dry spells are particularly hazardous during critical stages of rainfed wheat growth (flowering, grain filling, and maturation). In most parts of the country, the harvest season occurs from April to June, except in the central highlands and parts of Badakhshan, where harvests typically occur later than June. Early snow losses and below-average cumulative amounts would negatively impact summertime surface water resources and significantly increase higher rates of groundwater extraction.
Figure 1. Recent and seasonal outlook precipitation anomalies, regional snow water equivalent, and 3-month probabilistic forecasts for precipitation and very high temperatures.
Top-Left and top-middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average, for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the difference from average for March 21st to April 20th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for April. The middle-panel shows the percent of average precipitation for October 1st 2024 to May 5th, 2025, using April 1st - 20th preliminary data and a 16-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from April 21st. Top-right: Variations in regional Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (mm) for a region surrounding Afghanistan. The dotted line indicates average SWE (2001-2024 period), the blue line shows SWE for Oct. 2023 - Sep. 2024, and the red line shows SWE for Oct. 2024 to April 24th, 2025. From NASA, using SWE estimates from the FLDAS Central Asia model. Bottom-left: Probabilistic forecast for May to July 2025 precipitation tercile (April initial conditions), derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models. Colors indicate the probability of each category, based on 114 ensemble members and a 1991-2020 baseline. Bottom-right: Probability of very-high (> 80th percentile) temperatures during May to July 2025, also from CHC NMME.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
n southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of wet-season rice is underway, and good weather this season is expected to result in favourable yield outcomes. Additionally, planting of dry-season rice is underway with generally adequate water availability, except in Brunei where planting work is delayed due to ongoing repairs to the irrigation system. In northern Southeast Asia, planted area of dry-season rice is generally the same as last year. April is the peak month of dry-season rice harvesting, and production is expected to increase due to adequate irrigation water preparation and good weather conditions during the growing period. In Myanmar, some rice-growing areas may have been impacted by the 7.7 magnitude earthquake in late March, and the damage is currently being evaluated by the government. However, conditions remain generally favourable for dry-season rice cultivation throughout the country. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, growing conditions are favourable.
In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice is progressing much faster than last year and has reached 4.6 million hectares. Total production is expected to increase compared to last year, and sufficient sunlight during the growing period resulted in a favourable yield. Additionally, planting of dry-season rice is underway earlier than normal due to good weather conditions this season, and 0.9 million hectares have been planted. Dry-season rice crops in the early vegetative stages are developing adequately due to sufficient irrigation water in most areas. Some localized regions experienced flooding due to high rainfall amounts, but there is currently no damage to rice development. In Malaysia, harvesting of wet-season rice has reached about 65 percent of the total cultivated area. Good weather is supporting ongoing harvesting activities, and the quality and yield of harvested crops remain favourable. Most regions have completed land preparation for the dry season, and crops are either being actively planted or entering the early vegetative stages. Planting progress has reached around 56 percent of the planned area, and a combination of adequate water availability and forecasts of near-average rainfall is expected to result in favourable conditions for initial crop establishment. In Brunei, all irrigated areas for wet-season rice cultivation are now harvested with a favourable yield of 3.2 metric tons per hectare. Harvesting activities for rainfed areas are nearing completion with favourable yields expected. Overall, the wet season has performed better than previous seasons. Planting work for the dry season, which is mostly irrigated, is currently delayed due to ongoing major repairs to the irrigation system. Several farmers have decided to delay planting until rainfall provides additional water resources.
In the Philippines, dry-season rice planted during November and December 2024 is now in the harvesting stage, and about 56.4 percent of the planted area has been harvested. Yield is expected to improve compared to the previous year due to sufficient rainfall and irrigation water supply and despite localized impacts of heavy rainfall and resultant flooding this season. In Thailand, dry-season rice remains in the grain filling and harvesting stages, and conditions remain favourable due to sufficient water supply and despite a localized brown planthopper infestation reported in March. In northern Viet Nam, dry-season (winter-spring) rice is in the tillering and young panicle forming stages, and yield is expected to increase due to conducive weather and better irrigation preparation. In the south, dry-season (winter-spring) rice is in the harvesting stage, and harvested area reached 1.11 million hectares out of 1.92 million hectares planted. Yield is currently 7.2 tons per hectare, representing a slight increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, sowing of wet-season (summer-autumn) rice is underway in the Mekong Delta under favourable conditions with a planted area of 0.27 million hectares. In Laos, dry-season rice is in the grain filling to early harvesting stage, and harvesting progress has reached 85 thousand hectares, representing 7 percent of the total cultivated area. Harvesting progress is slower than the previous year but is expected to finalize in May. Generally good weather outcomes have provided adequate irrigation water this season, and yield is expected to be favourable due to sufficient sunlight received during the growing period. In Myanmar, planting of dry-season rice is mostly complete with 1.07 million hectares planted, accounting for 91.3 percent of the national plan. The total planted area is similar to last year, and overall growing conditions are favourable. Additionally, over 450 thousand hectares have been harvested, mainly in the delta region, producing about 2.5 million tons with a favourable yield of 5.44 tons per hectare, which is higher than last year. The 7.7 magnitude earthquake on March 28 impacted key agricultural regions in central areas of the country. A state of emergency was declared for affected regions, including Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, northeastern Shan State, the Naypyitaw Council Area, and Bago. Cropland, livestock, irrigation infrastructure, agricultural inputs and equipment, and food storage facilities have been impacted. Over 3.7 million hectares of cropland were exposed to the earthquake. Rice production in some affected areas may be reduced due to damage to irrigation canals and roads, and the government is currently investigating the amount of damage. Additionally, disruptions to agricultural markets and inputs are expected to negatively impact agricultural activities for the upcoming monsoon planting season, which is expected to begin in June. In Cambodia, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion and has reached 907 thousand hectares, representing 97 percent of the cultivated area, with an estimated yield of 4.6 tons per hectare. Overall conditions are favourable, and the yield is expected to increase slightly compared to last year. Additionally, land preparation is underway for wet-season rice in some areas that received adequate rainfall.
In Sri Lanka, planting of Yala season maize (10 percent of annual maize output) and rice (35 percent of annual rice output) is just beginning under favourable conditions. In Nepal, harvesting of winter wheat continues and is expected to conclude in June. Above-average plantings this season, primarily due to continued domestic demand, are expected to benefit production prospects. In the major producing southern plains (accounting for over 60 percent of wheat production and known as the Terai Region), adequate rainfall amounts received this season are supporting favourable yields. In the higher elevations, sufficient snowfall amounts during winter provided adequate freeze protection and soil moisture during spring. Additionally, planting of main season maize and second season rice is also underway, and growing conditions remain favourable. Strong domestic feed demand for maize contributed to an above-average planted area this season, continuing an upward trend over the past eight consecutive years. In Bangladesh, harvesting of winter/Rabi season maize (85 percent of annual maize output) and winter wheat finalized in April under favourable conditions. Harvesting of Boro season rice (55 percent of annual rice output and mostly irrigated) is just beginning while planting of summer/Kharif season maize (15 percent of annual maize output) and Aus season rice (10 percent of annual rice output) continues under favourable conditions. In recent years, maize plantings have expanded due to higher yield and profitability prospects, which stems from consistently increasing demand in the feed industry since 2021. This year, maize acreage reached a record 6.72 thousand hectares. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize planting is just beginning under favourable conditions with above-average rains received in April.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, land preparation for the Primera season continued into April, and sowing is underway in some Pacific-facing areas of southern Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, planting is expected to commence in May. Forecast below-average rains through early May could result in moderate deficits in parts of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, and forecast drier-than-normal conditions in most areas from July through September could negatively impact mid-season crop development. Additionally, the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season begins in June and is forecast to have above-average storm activity, which could bring sporadic heavy rains and resultant flooding (See Regional Outlook Pg. 16). In northern Honduras, harvesting of second season rice finalized under favourable conditions. In Haiti, planting and development of Printemps season cereals is underway. Good rainfall amounts received over the last month benefitted irrigation water availability and helped reduce deficits, particularly in the Sud region where rainfall has been erratic. However, there is emerging concern as heavy rains received over the last month resulted in flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage, and the rains likely contributed to crop losses (See Regional Outlook Pg. 16). In Cuba, harvesting of second season maize finalized in April while harvesting of second season rice (1/3 of annual rice production) is just beginning and is expected to finalize in June. Additionally, planting of main season rice is just beginning, and overall conditions are favourable for ongoing cropping activities.
Regional Outlook: Forecast moderate rainfall deficits to begin the Primera season
The 2025 Primera rainfall season is underway, as indicated by April 1st to 20th rainfall totals and a 16-day forecast. By May 5th, most areas in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua will likely receive moderate, 25 to 75 mm, rainfall amounts from April 1st (Figure 1-left). Higher rainfall totals are expected in regions of El Salvador and coastal western Guatemala.
Forecast below-average rainfall for late April to early May, across much of Central America, will likely produce spatially-variable early season rainfall conditions. Below-average April 1st to May 5th rainfall totals are anticipated in central and northern Guatemala, western and eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica (Figure 1 middle-left). Haiti received above-average rainfall during recent weeks, and wet conditions will likely continue due to forecast above-average rains in late April to early May.
Current forecasts do not support a clear outlook for May to June rainfall conditions in Guatemala, El Salvador, or Honduras (Figure 1-middle-right). In southern areas—in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama—there are slightly elevated chances of above-normal rainfall. In contrast, WMO (Figure 1-right), NMME, and C3S seasonal forecasts all indicate that July to September could be drier and hotter-than-normal in northern Central America and the Caribbean. If these conditions materialize, there could be implications of a more severe mid-season dry period and delayed onset of the Segunda rainfall season.
The June to November 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will likely have above-average activity, according to the Colorado State University forecast. An above-average outlook is largely related to the low chances of El Niño conditions, which tend to suppress hurricane development.
Figure 1. Seasonal precipitation total and anomaly outlooks, and 2- and 3-month probabilistic forecasts for precipitation.
Left and middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average, for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the total precipitation for April 1st to May 5th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for April, and a 16-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from April 21st. The left-middle panel compares the total to the historical average for the same period, from 1981-2024. Middle-right and right: WMO probabilistic forecasts for May to June (middle-right) and July to September (right) 2025 precipitation tercile, based on models initialized in April, from the WMO Lead Center Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published May 1st 2025.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.