Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 105: Published June 5th, 2025
Conditions as of May 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, dry conditions are expected to reduce secondary Belg yields in Ethiopia, and conditions are mixed for main/Meher season planting. The JJAS season is expected to be wetter than normal across the north and west.
Main season planting conditions are generally favourable in West Africa.
Across the Middle East & North Africa, poor seasonal precipitation is expected to reduce yields in parts of Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
In Southern Africa, good rains have contributed to generally favourable outcomes for the end of the main cropping season, and wheat planting is just beginning.
In Central & South Asia, conditions are mostly favourable for winter wheat development while rainfall deficits are negatively impacting spring wheat planting.
In Southeast Asia, rice harvesting conditions are generally favourable. In the north, planted area for wet-season rice is expected to decline due to a low market price for rice.
In Central America & the Caribbean, dry and hot conditions are disrupting Primera planting activities in all areas, particularly in Guatemala.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Generally below-average rains received for the February to May Belg season are expected to reduce yields in Ethiopia. Planting and development of main/Meher season cereals is underway in most areas under mixed conditions, and the June to Sept. rains are expected to be above-average across most north and western areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
WEST AFRICA: Planting of main season cereals is underway in most regions, with localized areas entering the vegetative to reproductive stage. Growing conditions are generally favourable, except in Guinea-Bissau and northwestern Nigeria experiencing a delayed rainfall onset and in conflict-affected regions. Desert locusts are present in parts of Chad and Niger and could proliferate to other areas with the expected June rains (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9).
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Below-average seasonal rainfall outcomes are expected to reduce yields in Morocco, much of Algeria, northeastern Libya, Lebanon, Syria, northern Iraq, and central and eastern Iran. Intensified desert locust activity is not currently impacting crops but could proliferate if left unchecked.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion, and good rainfall performance has generally supported favourable yield outcomes this season, except in parts of Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, and South Africa. Wheat planting is just beginning under mostly favourable conditions, except in the winter rainfall region of South Africa.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Winter wheat crops continue to develop under mostly favourable conditions while dry conditions are disrupting the start of spring wheat planting in most areas. In Afghanistan, inadequate rains and very low snow water equivalent levels are impacting rainfed wheat. Dry and hot conditions are forecast in most areas through August (See Regional Outlook Pg 15).
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Harvesting of dry-season rice is mostly complete in the north while harvesting of wet-season rice is nearing completion in the south, and seasonal outcomes are generally favourable due to conducive weather and sufficient irrigation water. In Myanmar, damage from the March earthquake is not expected to significantly reduce production. In Brunei, current planting delays for dry-season rice could negatively impact cropping outcomes.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Rainfall deficits are disrupting the start of the Primera season in all areas, and hot temperatures are accelerating the drying of soils (See Regional Outlook Pg. 19).
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over parts of the northern Canadian Prairies, the southern and eastern US, northeastern and southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, southeast Brazil, central Russian Federation, northcentral Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, northeastern Afghanistan, southern Republic of Korea, southern Japan, central Viet Nam, southern Laos, northern Cambodia, and northeastern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the western US, southern Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, northern and northeast Brazil, eastern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, northern and southern Argentina, Ireland, the United Kingdom, southern Norway, southern Sweden, eastern and northern Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, northern Germany, northern Poland, Lithuania, western Belarus, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, western Romania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, southern Greece, Türkiye, the southern Russian Federation, Georgia Armenia, Azerbaijan, western Turkmenistan, northwest Iran, northern Iraq, northern Algeria, northern Tunisia, central Niger, central Chad, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, the central Democratic Republic of the Congo, eastern Kazakhstan, northeastern Pakistan, northern and western India, western Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, western and central Mongolia, northwestern and central China, northern Myanmar, eastern Malaysia, Brunei, northern Indonesia, and southeastern Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 June 2025, issued on 30 May 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: ENSO-neutral conditions present and likely to continue through October 2025
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely through October 2025 (98 to 54 percent chances), according to the CPC/IRI outlook. There is limited long-range ENSO predictability at this time of the year. Currently, the CPC/IRI anticipates neutral ENSO conditions near the end of 2025 to early 2026. La Nina conditions are also possible. The forecast chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Global temperatures for April 2025 were the second warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Impactful heat waves continued in India and Pakistan during May, and hotter and drier than normal conditions rapidly reduced snowpack in Afghanistan.
Temperature forecasts for June indicate the potential for heat waves in southern Europe and northwestern Africa, as well as above-average temperatures in eastern Europe, western Russia, the western United States, Canada, Central America, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, Belg season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage in Ethiopia while planting and development of main season cereals is underway in Ethiopia (Meher season), South Sudan, and Yemen. In Ethiopia, a combination of dry conditions since the start of the season in February as well as ongoing socio-economic concerns in the north are expected to result in yield declines across parts of the minor producing north and parts of the centre, while favourable outcomes are expected along the south and west. Additionally, the antecedent dry conditions are now impacting sowing for the Meher season across parts of the north, centre, and east. In south and western South Sudan and across Yemen, below-normal rains received are impacting planting activities. Conversely, conditions remain favourable in west and southern Ethiopia and east and southeastern South Sudan.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in the United Republic of Tanzania while crops continue to develop in Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, and Burundi. Additionally, harvesting of second season rice finalized in Kenya while second season cereals continue to develop in bimodal regions of the United Republic of Tanzania and are now being planted in northwestern Uganda. Growing conditions remain mixed, and recent rains have improved prospects in many areas with favourable conditions across central, east, and northeastern Uganda, western Kenya, southeastern Somalia, Burundi, eastern Rwanda, and the United Republic of Tanzania. Conversely, ongoing dry concerns remain in parts of west and northwestern Uganda, eastern Kenya, most of Somalia, and western Rwanda.
The onset of the June to September (JJAS) rainfall season is expected to be earlier than normal over most regions. Across northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa where the JJAS season contributes over 50 percent of annual rainfall, precipitation outcomes are expected to be above-normal. The forecast increases the risk of flooding inundation, particularly over the Ethiopian Highlands and Sudd Wetlands in South Sudan as rivers flow downstream. Conversely, southern areas are mostly expected to remain dry, which is typical for this time of year, except across Uganda, west and southeastern Kenya, and western Rwanda which are expecting wetter than normal outcomes (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, land preparation is underway for main season sorghum and millet, and planting will begin in June. The June to September rains normally contribute over 80 percent of annual rainfall and are expected to be above-normal (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In South Sudan, first season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage in bimodal regions of Western and Central Equatoria, while planting continues in unimodal regions of the country. There is concern in south and western areas that received below-normal rainfall for the April to May period. Conversely, conditions remain favourable in the Greater Upper Nile region and in the southeast where rainfall outcomes were near to above-average. Forecast above-average precipitation across most areas for the June to September period is expected to benefit crop establishment and development, but the rains also increase the risk of river overflows and flooding (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). Peak rainfall typically occurs between July and August and contributes more than half of annual precipitation. Furthermore, armed clashes and a sharp increase in hostilities since February 2025 have disrupted agricultural activities in some areas and risk escalating into widespread conflict. In Ethiopia, Belg season maize crops continue to develop for harvest from June, and dry conditions since the start of the season in February are expected to result in poor yield outcomes in minor-producing Belg growing areas of the north and parts of the centre. Conversely, favourable outcomes are expected along the south and west that received adequate rains. Planting of Meher season cereals is just beginning under mixed conditions as moisture deficits may delay planting in areas of the north, centre, and east. Additionally, ongoing socio-economic concerns regarding the prior conflict situation continue to disrupt production in the north. Most areas are expected to receive below-average rains through early June, except in the south and southwest, followed by a shift to wetter than normal conditions for the June to September Kirempt rains (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Yemen, planting of main season sorghum continues with ongoing concern due to below-average rains received over the main producing regions in the west of the country. Land preparation is underway for spring wheat, and planting will begin in June. Protracted conflict continues to disrupt agricultural outcomes throughout the country.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, Gu season maize and sorghum crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from July. The onset of the April to June Gu rains brought rainfall inundation and flash flooding to southeastern and central parts of the country. Despite negative impacts of flooding, the rains have provided relief from prolonged dry conditions and have improved water and pasture availability, and conditions in the southeast have been upgraded to favourable. Conversely, some areas of the country continue to be impacted by prior drought conditions, including in the southwest where deficits remain as well as in the north, particularly in Puntland and Somaliland which have experienced three consecutive years of drought. Forecasts indicate that northern areas could receive less than half of typical rainfall amounts for the April to June Gu season (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Kenya, harvesting of second season rice finalized in the centre and west under favourable conditions. Planting and development of long rains cereals is underway throughout the country. In minor producing bimodal areas located in the eastern half of the country, conditions are mixed as dry spells continue to impact parts of the east, and an early cessation of the March to May rains could compound the dry impacts. Some areas were planted late, and the rains received were not sufficient to carry out cropping activities. Conversely, conditions along the southeastern coast have been upgraded to favourable due to adequate rains received. In major producing unimodal regions located in the western half of the country, growing conditions remain favourable. Throughout the country, the March to May long rains brought flash flooding, strong winds, and landslides to many regions and destroyed 5,337 acres of farmland. Above-average rains are forecast to continue for the June to September period in the west and southeast (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Uganda, first season cereals continue to develop for harvest from June, and planting of second season maize is just beginning in the northwest. Conditions are mixed as rainfall delays and deficits continue to impact north and western parts of the country. The start of the March to June first rainy season was delayed and erratic, which disrupted planting and germination activities. Abundant rains received during the second half of March helped to reduce deficits, but a return to dry conditions in April resulted in crop wilting and necessitated replanting in some central areas. Cereal crops that were replanted are unlikely to reach maturity as the rainy season typically terminates in June. However, forecast above-average rainfall amounts for the remainder of the season are expected to benefit yields (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Rwanda, Season B maize continues to develop for harvest from June, and there is ongoing concern in the west due to inadequate rains received that could negatively impact final yields. Conversely, conditions in the east have been upgraded to favourable due to rainfall improvements since April, though there are still some localized areas with below-average biomass (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Burundi, Season B maize and rice are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and adequate rains received in April and May have improved yield prospects. Maize harvesting will begin in June. In the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of Msimu season cereals is underway in unimodal regions of the country while Masika season cereals continue to develop along the bimodal north and northern coast. Overall growing conditions remain favourable.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Below-average rains forecast across western and northern East Africa, followed by above-average rains in June to August
During recent weeks, rainfall conditions across East Africa were mixed. Between April 26th to May 25th, average to above-average rains were recorded in Kenya, southwestern Ethiopia, portions of Southern Somalia, portions of eastern Uganda, and Tanzania. Below-average rains were observed across Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, portions of Somalia, Rwanda and Burundi (Figure 1-left).
During the next two weeks, rainfall conditions will likely be varied. The CHIRPS-GEFS forecast indicates average to below-average rains across most of East Africa signaling rainfall cessation in the Gu/Belg rains receiving regions of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya (Figure 1 middle-left). Both the CHIRPS-GEFS and ECMWF models indicate below-average rains in northern and western areas of East Africa. The ECMWF forecasts above-average rains in eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and Tanzania.
Overall, the March to May seasonal rains have been uneven in spatial and temporal distribution, with some areas experiencing periods of heavy rainfall and intermittent dryness. In Kenya, flooding, landslides and strong winds were reported in several counties including coastal areas, eastern, central and western regions. As of 13th May, 23 fatalities had been reported, 5337 acres of farmland destroyed and 2379 livestock lost (Red Cross). In Somalia’s Jowhar district, heavy rains and flooding in May affected more than 16,000 displaced individuals residing in displacement sites (OCHA).
Despite the varied rainfall, persistent wetness in Kenya, southern Somalia, southwestern Ethiopia, and bimodal regions of northern Tanzania have improved soil moisture. Vegetation conditions based on NDVI are mostly above average and crops are in vegetative to maturation stages. However, in central Uganda, dry conditions in April affected planted crops during critical flowering stages disrupting growth and forcing farmers to replant (Relief Web).
Rainfall forecasts for June to August indicate a north and westward shift in the rains from the bimodal equatorial regions. The NMME, C3S and WMO ensemble forecasts point to above-average rains in eastern South Sudan, Uganda, western and northern half of Ethiopia and northwestern and western portions of Kenya. The GHACOF 70 forecast for June to September indicates 50 to 60 percent chances of above-average rainfall in many of these areas (Figure 1-right). Forecast above-average rains are likely to elevate risks of flooding in the low-lying Sudd and Nile basin. Close monitoring is needed in areas of South Sudan affected by conflict and climatic shocks and in western Kenya and southwestern Ethiopia, where forecast above-average rains may impact crop maturation and harvest of cereals.
Forecasts also indicate high chances of above-normal temperatures across eastern East Africa. Based on observed and forecast conditions, close monitoring of agroclimatic stress is needed in northern Ethiopia and northern Somalia, where season to date rainfall totals are 30 to 45 percent below average (Figure 1 middle-right). These regions have high probabilities (>90%) of below-average end of season rainfall outcomes (see Ethiopia and East Africa Agroclimate Monitoring Report), which heightens the risk of food and water insecurity.
Figure 1: Recent and forecast rainfall anomalies and a 4-month probabilistic forecast for rainfall.
Left and middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average, for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the precipitation anomaly (mm) for April 26th to May 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for May. Middle-left: A 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast from May 29th, 2025 with values indicating how the forecast compares to the CHIRPS average for this period. Middle-right: the percent of average precipitation for March 1st to June 10th. Right: Seasonal forecast for June to September (JJAS) 2025 precipitation from the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 70). GHACOF 70 was held from 19 - 20 May 2025, organised by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the Greater Horn of Africa, the World Meteorological Organization, and other international partners, and was hosted by the Ethiopia Meteorological Institute.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, planting of main season cereals is underway in bimodal and Soudano-Guinean zones with localized areas entering the vegetative to reproductive stage. Active countries include Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, planting of second season rice is underway in Nigeria. Along the Sahel, planting of main season cereals is underway in Guinea-Bissau, Mali, western Burkina Faso, and Chad, and harvesting of second season rice crops finalized in Mauritania.
Across West Africa, agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable for ongoing cropping activities, except in Guinea-Bissau and northwestern Nigeria where a delayed rainfall onset could negatively impact crop emergence. Additionally, persistent conflict continues to influence agricultural outcomes in central Mali, northeastern Nigeria, north and southwestern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic, and socio-economic challenges relating to inter-communal conflict continue to impact northwestern Nigeria. According to CHIRPS rainfall totals from March 1 to May 20, the southern part of the subregion from southern Guinea to the Central African Republic received up to 300 mm of rainfall, with the bimodal areas receiving between 300 and 600 mm. In Nigeria, heavy rainfall in late May impacted localized central-western areas with flooding, and parts of Mokwa town, which connects traders from the south with food producers in the north, have been affected. While the impact to agricultural areas is currently limited to 88 plots of farmland, the heavy rains are forecast to continue over central and southern areas. Conversely, rainfall totals are less than 75 mm in the Sahelian band (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). Cumulative precipitation for the first rainy season from April to July is expected to be below-average along the Gulf of Guinea region, while the May to September rainy season is expected to be above-average along the central and eastern Sahel and below-average in the west, including in Mauritania, Senegal, and Gambia, and along the Gulf of Guinea (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9).
Furthermore, desert locusts have been observed in parts of the subregion, according to a recent FAO report. In central and north-central Niger, groups of adults were reported in several regions, including in the Aïr Mountains near Timia, the Ténéré Desert area northwest of Dirkou and the Djado Plateau located north of Chirfa near the Libyan border. Additionally, a swarm was reported north of Iferouane. In north-central Chad, isolated immature and mature solitarious adults were present during April near Faya as well as north of the Ennedi Plateau near Fada. Forecasts suggest that new adult groups and small swarms of desert locusts will form in May and could migrate where rain is expected in June, and adult groups currently present may also migrate following rain patterns (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9).
Regional Outlook: Above-normal July to September rainfall forecast for the central-eastern Sahel
In western areas, April 1st to May 25th rainfall totals were mainly average or above average (southern Mali, Guinea, central and northern Côte d’Ivoire).
There are slight to severe rainfall deficits in Nigeria, southwestern Côte d’Ivoire, eastern Liberia, southwestern and northern Cameroon, and central-northern Central African Republic.
Average to below-average rainfall is forecast for late May to early June in most central and eastern Sahelian and Sudanian zones, and above-average rainfall is forecast near the Gulf of Guinea, according to a two-week unbiased GEFS forecast. Rainfall deficits are anticipated to grow larger in northern Nigeria, northern Cameroon, and southern Chad. An outlook for April 1st to June 10th, based on observed and forecast rainfall, indicates 60 to 90 percent of average rainfall in these areas.
In central Sahelian and Sudanian zones, longer than usual dry spells near the beginning of the 2025 rainfall season are likely, according to the CILSS PRESASS forecast (Figure 1 middle-left).
In the Gulf of Guinea countries with bimodal rainfall seasons, the first rainy season (April-July) is expected to be below average (FEWS NET West Africa Seasonal Monitor). In the Sahel, an overall above-average May-September rainy season is expected, based on seasonal forecast ensemble models. The PRESASS forecast also highlighted average to above-average rainfall totals in the Sahel, late to average cessation dates, and above-average flows in main river basins.
Models are primarily forecasting above-normal rainfall during July to September in central and eastern Sahelian areas– in eastern Mali, Niger, Chad and northern areas of Burkina Faso and Nigeria. Southern and western areas will likely be drier-than-normal.
Root-zone soil moisture could be substantially higher than usual in central-eastern Sahel cropping areas by August 2025, essentially pointing to better-than-usual opportunities for rainfed agriculture and higher streamflow, and corresponding risks of oversaturation, localized flooding, and uncertainties about rainfall distribution. Locust populations are also being monitored. According to the FAO Locust Watch, new adult groups and small swarms of desert locusts will have likely formed in May and these may migrate towards Chad, Niger, and Mali as rains develop during June. Adult groups present in southern Algeria, northern Niger, and northern Chad may also migrate following rain patterns.
Figure 1. Season precipitation anomaly outlook, early-season dry spell duration probabilistic forecast, a 3-month probabilistic forecast for precipitation, and seasonal soil moisture forecast.
Left: A CHC Early Estimate, which compares recent precipitation totals to historical CHIRPS (1981-2024), for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the difference from average for April 1st to June 10th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for May and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from May 26th. Middle-Left: PRESASS 2025 forecast (April 2025) - A probabilistic forecast indicating the most likely length of dry spell to be experienced at the beginning of the season (orange indicates a longer-than-normal dry spell, while green indicates a shorter-than-normal dry spell), from the 2025 Forum on Seasonal Forecasts of Agro-hydro-climatic Characteristics of the Rainy Season for the Sudanian and Sahelian Zones of West Africa and the Sahel (PRESASS). Middle-right: Probabilistic forecast for July to September 2025 precipitation tercile (May initial conditions), derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models. Colors indicate the probability of each category, based on 114 ensemble members and a 1991-2020 baseline. Right: A root zone soil moisture anomaly forecast for August 2025 from NASA’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) Forecast model, based on May conditions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, wheat harvesting is about to begin or is already underway in all countries, and most regions experienced below-average rainfall outcomes from the start of the season in November 2024 through the start of harvest in May 2025, except in parts of central-eastern Morocco, parts of central and central-eastern Algeria, central and northern Tunisia, northwest and northeast Libya, and west and southern Iran that received near to above-normal rains, according to CHIRPS data. Inadequate precipitation is expected to result in yield declines in Morocco, northwestern Algeria, northeastern Libya, Lebanon, Syria, northern Iraq, and central and eastern Iran, with hotter than normal conditions contributing to poor yields in Iran and ongoing conflict disruptions contributing to poor yields in Lebanon and Syria. Conversely, wetter than normal conditions negatively impacted crops in northwestern Libya. Elsewhere, favourable outcomes are expected, including in central and northeastern Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, central-east and southern Iraq, and west and central-northern Iran. Additionally, desert locust activity has intensified over the last three months across parts of Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. While the outbreak is not currently impacting agricultural activities, bands could develop into small swarms in June if left unchecked.
In Morocco, most areas experienced generally below-average rains this season, and yield prospects are below-average, except in Tanger-Tetouan and parts of Fès-Meknès, where winter cereals were able to recover following late rains. Rainfall was poor from the start of the season in November 2024 through February 2025, and several early-sown crops failed to recover. While improved rains at the end of winter in March and April resulted in partial crop recovery in the north, it is likely too late for recovery in the most drought-affected regions, particularly in the centre and south (Souss, Marrakech, Tadla Azilal, Rabat, Chaouia, and Doukkala-Abda) and the north-east (Oriental), and areas with inadequate yields will likely be used as fodder. Overall wheat yields are estimated to be 7 percent below-average at the national level. Additionally, production is expected to be below the 10-year average due to dry and hot weather early in the growing season and less area planted, which would mark the fourth season in a row with a below-average wheat and barley harvest. In Algeria, harvesting activities are expected to start in mid-June, and overall conditions are mixed for winter cereals. Yield declines are expected in the northwest (from Tlemcen to Chlef and Relizane) due to a dry autumn and winter as well as in parts of the north-centre (Bordj Bou Arrer and part of Medea) due to a rainfall deficit in February and March. Conversely, rainfall improvements received from late April to early May during the critical flowering and grain filling stages significantly improved crop conditions, particularly in parts of the north-centre (Tissemlit and Setif) and the northeast (Guelma, Skikda, and El Tarf). Overall wheat yields are expected to be near to above-average due to improved prospects in the central and eastern regions, though some models are indicating possible yield declines. In Tunisia, harvesting of winter cereals is underway, and adequate rainfall and slightly above-normal temperatures generally benefitted crop development this season. Vegetation conditions are above-average, and wheat yields are estimated to be 13 percent above-average. In Egypt, despite below-average seasonal rains received in some areas, wheat outcomes are expected to be favourable as crops are primarily irrigated.
In Syria, harvesting of wheat and barley crops is underway, and vegetation conditions are below-normal due to a combination of dry and hot conditions, particularly in December and January, as well as armed conflict during the planting season and high input and production costs. Cumulative rainfall from November 2024 to April 2025 was about 40 percent below the long-term average, and some major producing northern areas are showing the lowest biomass levels since 2002. In Iraq, harvesting of winter wheat and barley is just beginning under mixed conditions. Below-average precipitation received this season is expected to reduce wheat yields in the north (Ninewa, Dahuk, and parts of Erbil) due to poor rainfall, particularly In December, January, and March. Conversely, better rainfall performance and the use of irrigation benefitted yields in the central-east and south. Production is expected to be near-average at the national level. In Iran, while the government increased the wheat procurement price this year, the high cost of agricultural inputs constrained plantings. Well below-average rains received from December 2024 to February 2025 and higher than normal temperatures received since April negatively impacted crop development, particularly in the northeast (Khorasan and Golestan) and centre (Tehran and Isfahan) where biomass is below-average. However, the use of irrigation and improved rains in March partially offset the dry conditions in the major-producing northwest, and slightly above-normal temperatures benefited cereal growth. Production is expected to be near-average at the national level. Furthermore, rice planting is underway in the main producing Gilan and Mazandaran regions located in the north and is expected to finalize in June.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion across all regions, including Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini. Generally good rainfall outcomes this season are expected to result in favourable yields in most areas, with improved prospects in southern Angola. Additionally, yields are expected to be slightly above average in much of Zimbabwe and Botswana despite heavy rains and localized flooding earlier this year. Conversely, drier than normal conditions are expected to result in below-average yields in northwest, east, and southern Zambia, southern Malawi, northern Mozambique, and central South Africa, with cyclone impacts and conflict contributing to poor yields in northern Mozambique and overly wet conditions during harvest time contributing to poor yields in central South Africa. In eastern Madagascar, below-average precipitation received this season could reduce rice yields. Several pest infestations, including African armyworm, fall armyworm, and some locust species, have been reported in several areas but have not significantly affected any cropping locations.
Furthermore, wheat planting is underway in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho. Planting conditions are mostly favourable, except in southwestern South Africa due to prior dry conditions and a delayed start to seasonal rains since April.
In Angola, main season cropping outcomes are expected to be near-average despite the delayed and erratic rains received in the first half of the season. In Botswana, above-average precipitation received from November 2024 through mid-April 2025 benefitted crop development. Heavy downpours in January and February resulted in localized flooding in the South-East and Kgatleng districts located in the southeast of the country, but impacts to overall cereal production are likely minimal. Vegetation conditions are above average in most areas, and cereal production is expected to recover from last year’s drought-reduced amount and could reach a near-average level. In Zambia, rainfall outcomes were mixed this season. Parts of the north, east, and south were affected by dry and hot conditions in the first half of the season, and parts of the north recorded record-low rainfall totals. While improved rains over the last month benefited moisture reserves and cropping areas in parts of the east and north, it was too late for crop recovery. Additionally, the north recorded a significant expansion in planted area, though production only increased slightly due to the dry impacts. Yield declines are expected in the northwest, east, and south of the country. In Malawi, mixed rainfall outcomes this season are expected to result in yield declines in the south. Additionally, record low rainfall totals in the north and part of the centre resulted in crop deficits this season, though varied yields at the district level are expected to result in generally favourable outcomes. In Mozambique, drought patterns were observed this season in Niassa, Cabo Delgado, and Nampula provinces located in the north and are expected to impact agricultural production in these areas. The country continues to contend with multiple crises, including the passage of Cyclone Jude in March in Nampula province, which affected 1.5 million hectares of cropland, as well as expanding conflict, displacement, and post-electoral unrest. Cabo Delgado Province located in the northeast remains the epicentre of ongoing conflict and growing internal displacements. A renewed intensity of the conflict is affecting districts that were previously relatively stable, including Ancuabe and Montepuez, and expanding displacements are also occurring in Niassa province located in the northwest. Conversely, weather outcomes this season were adequate in the southern half of the country, and production this season is expected to be near-average at the national level. In Madagascar, concern remains in the east due to a delayed rainfall onset and dry conditions during the first half of the season and despite significant improvements over the past couple of months. In South Africa, maize harvesting finalized in May with generally favourable outcomes following widespread above-normal rainfall since late December as well as a delayed start to the frost season, which supported crops in the final development stages. In Free State, a delayed start to the rainy season was followed by widespread rains from December 2024 to April 2025. While the enhanced precipitation initially improved crop conditions, a continuation of the rains into the harvesting period resulted in waterlogging and negatively impacted yields. Furthermore, wheat planting is underway, and widespread above-normal rainfall generally benefitted soil moisture conditions over the summer rainfall region. Conversely, in the Western Cape winter rainfall region, dry conditions since December in combination with a delayed start to the rainy season since April may negatively impact crop development. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of second season maize finalized in the centre and southeast while both main season sorghum and second season maize continue to develop elsewhere in the country, and overall conditions remain favourable despite erratic rainfall received over the past month. Land preparation is underway for main season maize in the north and west, and planting will begin in June.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, wheat harvesting continues in Pakistan and Afghanistan under mixed conditions while crops continue to develop in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan under favourable conditions for harvest from June. In Afghanistan, inadequate rains received since April and very low snow water equivalent levels are now disrupting rainfed wheat production in many areas, except along the south, and forecast dry and hot conditions through June could negatively impact late-planted crops. Additionally, spring wheat planting continues in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia with dry concerns in most areas due to generally below-average precipitation received since the start of the season in April, except in northern Kazakhstan where planting conditions are favourable. Precipitation is expected to be below-average across most areas through August, except in the southern half of Afghanistan and most of Pakistan where near to above-normal rains are expected. Additionally, temperatures are expected to be much warmer than normal through August in all areas, which could exacerbate the dry conditions (See Regional Outlook Pg. 15).
In Uzbekistan, cumulative precipitation from October to November 2024 was below-average in key producing regions. The dry conditions coupled with warmer than normal temperatures negatively impacted soil moisture and winter wheat development. However, irrigation use likely improved biomass levels. In Kazakhstan, conditions remain favourable for winter wheat development, which makes up 5 percent of annual wheat production, and harvesting will begin in July. In the north, where the majority of spring wheat is grown, above-average precipitation received since the start of the season in April resulted in slowed sowing progress in some areas but has been generally conducive for crop germination. Conversely, rainfall deficits continue to impact spring wheat in the minor-producing south. The total sown area for spring wheat is expected to be 23.7 million hectares, an increase of 413,000 hectares compared to the previous year. The government is providing support through financing and the provision of fertilizer, seed, machinery, and diesel inputs. In Afghanistan, the 2024/25 wheat season began with mostly below-normal rains, though the timing and distribution of the rains were adequate for planting and early season crop development. Short term episodic rains received between January and March benefitted crops that emerged from dormancy in March. However, inadequate precipitation received in April and May negatively impacted water resources and soil moisture levels and affected rainfed crops along the northern wheat belt during the critical grain filling and flowering stages. Cumulative October 2024 to April 2025 rainfall is below-average, and snow water equivalent levels are also well below-average in most basins. As of late May, the wheat harvest concluded in southeast, south, and some western parts of the country and will continue through June and July in other areas. The dry conditions are disrupting rainfed wheat development in the north, northwest, central, and eastern parts of the country and could negatively impact overall wheat production. Many provinces in the north are contending with successive droughts and below-average crop biomass, particularly in Faryab, Jawzjan, Badghis, and Samangan, and drought conditions are expected to peak in the coming months. However, some farmers were able to use groundwater irrigation to mitigate the effects of rainfall deficits. The use of groundwater extraction increased significantly this year, particularly in the Helmand Valley region located in the south, and an estimated 3 billion cubic meters are being extracted annually. Forecast below-average rains and high temperatures through June could negatively impact late-planted wheat (See Regional Outlook Pg. 15). At the national level, wheat production is currently expected to be 5.36 million metric tons, which is near-average and 11 percent higher than the last year due to a combination of the distribution of improved seed and fertilizers this season and favourable prospects for irrigated crops. Additionally, prior locust and yellow rust outbreaks did not result in significant crop damage. Furthermore, land preparation for second season crops, including rice and maize, is underway, and a lack of irrigation water is expected to negatively impact planting. In Pakistan, harvesting of Rabi season wheat continues under mostly favourable conditions except in the rainfed barani areas that were affected by prolonged dry spells. Despite an above-average planted area for wheat this season, production is expected to decline to 27.9 million metric tons, an 11 percent decrease compared to the previous year but a 6 percent increase compared to average, due to prolonged dry weather that led to water shortages in rainfed areas as well as challenges with fertilizer availability. Additionally, maize planting continues under favourable conditions. Land preparation is underway for Kharif (summer) season rice, and planting will begin in June.
Regional Outlook: Extreme below-average snowpack due to highly abnormal dry and warm conditions
The total precipitation has been below average from October to March, with very little rainfall during April and May 2025. In Afghanistan, conditions during April and May ranked among the driest on record, based on preliminary CHIRPS data for May 1st to 25th, 2025. Precipitation estimates for April 1st to May 25th range from less than 60 to 75 percent of average across most southern and central areas (Figure 1 top-left). Across much of Afghanistan, and in portions of southern-central Kazakhstan and central Pakistan, these totals were lower than or similar to the driest set of years on the CHIRPS 44-year record, for the same April to late May time period (Figure 1 top-middle).
Major snow losses resulted from the extreme low precipitation and highly above-average temperatures. This comes after five consecutive years of below-average snowpack. After mid-May, the average snow water equivalent value, for the region in and around Afghanistan, dropped lower than all previous low values since at least 2021 (Figure 1 top-right). These low amounts imply reduced water availability in downstream areas for the main agricultural season and limited surface water resources for second-season crops. Groundwater extraction will likely increase in response to these conditions.
In Afghanistan, the seasonal decline in SWE is sharp and early, as snowmelt has completed two to eight weeks earlier than usual, depending on location.the first crops of the current agricultural season, especially the irrigated crops, are seeing promising results from wheat, orchard fruits, vegetables, and cash crops. However, rainfed crops, particularly rainfed wheat, face severe stress in several areas, including parts of the western, central, and central highlands and in the north and northeastern regions.
Abnormally hot temperatures were experienced across many central-southern cropping areas, including in northern Afghanistan, southern Turkmenistan, and southern Uzbekistan, abnormally hot temperatures during early-mid May. In Afghanistan, these high temperatures increase the risks of heat and moisture stress in rainfed crops in central and lowland areas of Afghanistan during critical growth stages. Temperatures were much hotter than normal in cropping areas across central Pakistan during mid-May, when maize planting and early stages of development would typically begin.
Drier and much hotter-than-normal conditions will likely continue in the region, with potential for below-average rainfall in central areas during June to August, such as in central and southern Kazakhstan (Figure 1-bottom-left and bottom-right). Monsoon season rainfall may be above-normal in Pakistan and portions of southern and southeastern Afghanistan, and if a strong monsoon develops there would be impacts in more areas. Associated with that outlook are elevated flood risks, so weather forecasts should be carefully monitored.
Figure 1. Recent precipitation anomaly and historical rank, regional snow water equivalent, and 3-month probabilistic forecasts for precipitation and very high temperatures.
Top-Left and top-middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to historical CHIRPS, for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the difference from average for April 1st to May 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for May. The middle-panel shows how the total for this period compares to the historical record (1981-2024) for the same time period. Red and blue hues indicate the current season total is in the top 3 driest or wettest events in history. Top-right: Variations in regional Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (mm) for a region surrounding Afghanistan. The dotted line indicates average SWE (2001-2024 period), the blue line shows SWE for Oct. 2023 - Sep. 2024, and the red line shows SWE for Oct. 2024 to May 29th, 2025. From NASA, using SWE estimates from the FLDAS Central Asia model. Bottom-left: Probabilistic forecast for June to August 2025 precipitation tercile (May initial conditions), derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models. Colors indicate the probability of each category, based on 114 ensemble members and a 1991-2020 baseline. Bottom-right: Probability of very-high (> 80th percentile) temperatures during June to August 2025, also from CHC NMME.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In northern Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is mostly complete. This season, an increase in planted area in combination with sufficient irrigation water and favourable weather conditions are expected to result in favourable yield and production amounts. In Myanmar, the amount of damage caused by a strong earthquake in late March was limited, and production is not expected to decrease significantly, according to a recent impact assessment. Additionally, wet-season rice is in the field preparation to seeding stage across northern areas of the subregion, and planted area is expected to decrease due to a decline in the market price of rice. In southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of wet-season rice is nearing completion, and sufficient sunlight received during the growing period is expected to result in good production outcomes. Dry-season rice is in the early growing stage, and conditions are mostly favourable due to sufficient irrigation water supply. However, planting delays due to ongoing improvements to the irrigation system could impact final cropping outcomes in Brunei. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, growing conditions are favourable.
In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice has reached 5.5 million hectares and is progressing much faster than last year. Sufficient sunlight received during the growing period contributed to favourable yields, and total production is expected to increase compared to the previous year. May is also the second month of dry-season rice planting. This year, planting began earlier than normal and has reached 1.9 million hectares. Conditions are favourable for crops in the early vegetative stages due to sufficient irrigation water, and while rainfall amounts are high in some areas and have resulted in flooding, there has been no significant damage to rice cropping areas. In Malaysia, harvesting of wet-season rice is now complete. The harvested area reached 94 percent of the total cultivated area, and yields are near-normal. Land preparation of dry-season rice is mostly complete, and most areas are in the active planting or early vegetative growth stages. Planting progress reached 44 percent of the planned cultivation area as of May. In Brunei, 35 percent of the planned area for dry-season rice has been planted, and progress is delayed due to ongoing repairs to the irrigation system as well as currently low precipitation and high temperatures. The delays are causing concern for this season’s production outlook.
In the Philippines, dry-season rice planted in November and December 2024 is now fully harvested with a yield of 4.09 metric tons per hectare, representing a 2.7 percent increase compared to the previous year due to sufficient rainfall and irrigation water supply. Land preparation and planting of wet-season rice is underway, and the country is expected to receive above-normal rains. In Thailand, harvesting of dry-season rice is mostly complete with a projected 26 percent increase in production compared to last year. The increase is attributed to both the expansion of the planted area to 2.1 million hectares as well as adequate irrigation water supply. Wet-season rice is in the field preparation stage, and farmers have begun sowing in some areas. However, planted area is expected to decrease due to a decline in the market price of rice. In northern Viet Nam, dry-season (winter-spring) rice is in the young panicle forming to grain filling stage, and good weather and sufficient irrigation water supply are expected to result in an improved yield. In the south, harvesting of dry-season (winter-spring) rice is underway with a harvested area of 1.68 million hectares out of 1.92 million hectares planted. The yield reached 7.1 tons per hectare, representing a slight increase compared to the previous year. In Laos, harvesting of dry-season rice is now complete. The final planted area is estimated to be 85 thousand hectares, and 60 percent of the planted area has been harvested with a production of 387 thousand tons. Generally good weather conditions as well as adequate sunlight and irrigation water during the growing season contributed to favourable yield outcomes. Additionally, wet-season rice is in the land preparation stage with a planned area of 854 thousand hectares. In Myanmar, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion under favourable conditions. This season, 1.1 million hectares were planted, and 770 thousand hectares have been harvested, representing 67.7 percent of the planted area. The harvest produced 4.3 million tons of paddy with a yield of 5.6 tons per hectare, which is similar to last year. Additionally, according to a recent assessment, only 55 hectares of paddy fields were damaged by the strong earthquake in late March, and final production is not expected to be significantly impacted. However, infrastructure damage from the earthquake continues to disrupt food supply chains in affected areas. Furthermore, land preparation of wet-season rice is just beginning. In Cambodia, wet-season rice is in the seeding stage, and the planted area has reached 315 thousand hectares out of 2.7 million hectares planned. Planting work is progressing faster than normal due to early rainfall onset and adequate water supply for agriculture, and growing conditions are also favourable due to sufficient sunlight.
In Sri Lanka, planting of Yala season maize (10 percent of annual maize output) and rice (35 percent of annual rice output) continues under favourable conditions. In Nepal, harvesting of winter wheat is nearing completion under favourable conditions. Main season maize and second season rice crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions, and rice harvesting will take place in June. Land preparation is underway for main season rice, the country’s main staple crop, and planting will begin in June. In Bangladesh, harvesting of Boro season rice (55 percent of annual rice output and mostly irrigated) finalized in May under favourable conditions, and production is expected to increase from the previous year due to conducive weather outcomes. Planting and development of summer/Kharif season maize (15 percent of annual maize output), Aus season rice (10 percent of annual rice output), Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice output), and main season sorghum continue under favourable conditions, and maize harvesting will commence in June. Additionally, heavy monsoon rainfall and upstream water flows from India have resulted in ongoing flooding since mid-May, particularly in Sylhet, Sunamganj, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Netrokona, Noakhali, Bhola, Khagrachari, Bandarban, and Rangamati districts. The monsoon season typically lasts from late May through August. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage while rice planting is underway, and overall conditions are favourable as abundant rainfall received in April and May resulted in above-average crop biomass. Additionally, near-average moisture conditions are expected to continue through September.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Primera season maize conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, planting for the Primera season is just beginning in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. A significant reduction of rainfall since the start of the season in April is disrupting planting activities in all regions, and hotter than normal conditions likely accelerated the drying of soils, particularly in parts of Guatemala that received only half of typical rainfall amounts in May. The poor moisture conditions and low river levels are affecting sowing activities and irrigation systems for large-scale farmers who are waiting for additional rains, and some small-scale farmers lost their planted crops due to several consecutive days to weeks without rainfall as well as high temperatures. Some areas are expected to receive increased rains from late May to early June, but it could lead to flash flooding and will likely not be sufficient to reduce deficits over the previous two months. Additionally, forecasts indicate average to below-average rains across most areas for the June to September period (See Regional Outlook Pg. 19).
In western El Salvador, erratic rainfall and above-normal temperatures are delaying crop establishment, particularly in Sonsonate, Ahuachapán, and Santa Ana departments. In the east, erratic rains negatively impacted San Miguel and Usulutan departments. In Guatemala, dry and hot conditions are causing soil moisture deficits that are negatively affecting vegetation conditions for the start of Primera planting in most areas, particularly in the Central Area department where rainfall has been inadequate for the past 90 days and in Motagua Valley and Verapaz departments. Many areas received only half of typical rainfall amounts over the last month, and heat stress is also compounding dry conditions (See Regional Outlook Pg. 19). In Honduras, significant dry conditions and hot temperatures in March resulted in soil moisture deficits that continue to affect vegetation conditions in many areas, particularly in Choluteca, Valle, and southern Francisco Morazán departments. Conversely, abundant rains in April reduced deficits and provided favourable conditions for the start of Primera season planting along parts of the northern coast, except in Cortés department where vegetation conditions are below-normal. However, overall planted area is likely to be constrained by lower cereal prices and rising production costs. In Nicaragua, dry conditions are negatively affecting sowing activities, particularly in Leon, Chinandega, Rivas, and Granada departments located in the west of the country. In Haiti, Printemps season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage with ongoing dry and hot concerns, and vegetation conditions are below-normal in localized parts of the Sud-Est department. Additionally, heavy rains received on May 5 resulted in the overflow of several rivers and flooding in the Nord Ouest and Artibonite departments located in the northwest of the country, which caused localized damage to food crops and livestock. In Cuba, harvesting of second season rice (1/3 of annual rice production) continues under favourable conditions and is expected to finalize in June. Planting of main season rice is also underway, and dry conditions since the start of the season in April as well as above-average temperatures in mid-May are disrupting planting progress. Land preparation is underway for main season maize, and planting will begin in June.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Substantially drier and hotter than average conditions in Guatemala and parts of the region during May that are forecast to continue
Rainfall was substantially below average during recent weeks, from April 26th to May 25th, in Guatemala, central and western Honduras, Cuba, northeastern and southwestern Haiti, El Salvador, and western and eastern Nicaragua. Preliminary estimates indicate that areas in northern, central, and southern Guatemala received only around half of typical rainfall amounts during this time period (Figure 1-left). Poor distribution of rainfall has also been an issue.
Above-average temperatures during recent weeks likely contributed to accelerated drying of soils. Portions of northern and southern Guatemala and central Cuba were much hotter than usual in mid-May, with a potential for more serious impacts of heat on moisture-limited crops. Locations that experienced abnormally hot conditions during one or more weeks are highlighted in Figure 1 (middle-right); in these areas average maximum temperatures ranged between 32 to 36 degrees C. Above-average temperatures will likely continue in the region, based on the SubC multimodel maximum temperature 30-day anomaly forecast from May 29th.
Seasonal rainfall totals for April 1st to June 10th could range between 75 and 90 percent of average in central-northern Guatemala, western and central Honduras, Cuba, and western and northern Nicaragua, with more pronounced deficits in some locations (Figure 1 middle-left), if the two-week unbiased GEFS forecast materializes. In Haiti, totals will likely be near-average to below-average.
While moderate to high rainfall amounts are forecast during late May to early June, these may be below average in Haiti, across much of Guatemala, and in central Honduras and northwestern Nicaragua, based on the CHIRPS-GEFS 15-day forecast. Confidence in the forecast is low due to model disagreement– wetter conditions are forecast by ECMWF and SubC models– but the potential for adverse weather conditions is concerning due to the recent dry and abnormally hot conditions in some of these areas. Models generally indicate there will be elevated chances of drier and hotter-than-normal conditions during June to September across northeastern Central America and the Caribbean (Figure 1 right).
During the first two weeks of June, forecast moderate to heavy rainfall will elevate the risk of flooding along coastal areas facing the Pacific Ocean. On May 5th, intense, heavy rains in Haiti caused significant damages and destruction of property, food crop, and livestock due to overflow of several rivers in the North East department (ReliefWeb/OCHA). The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be active, with an above-normal number of storms (60 percent chance) and three to five major hurricanes (70 percent chance), according to NOAA’s May outlook.
Figure 1. Recent and seasonal outlook precipitation anomalies, recent abnormally hot conditions, and a 4-month probabilistic forecast for precipitation. Left and middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average (1981-2024), for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the difference from average precipitation for April 26th to May 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for May. The middle-left panel shows the difference from average for April 1st to June 10th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for May and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from May 26. Middle-right: Orange-red hues indicate abnormally hot (> 80th percentile) maximum temperature in active cropping areas during at least one pentad (5-day period) between May 6th and May 20th. Yellow indicates an active cropping area that did not experience abnormally hot conditions. Grey indicates non-active (out-of-season) cropping areas. Active areas are based on GEOGLAM Crop Monitor bi-monthly crop calendars for multiple crop types and on FEWS NET and JRC ASAP cropland masks. Analysis by CHC, using CHIRTS-ERA5 data. Right: WMO probabilistic forecasts for June to September 2025 precipitation tercile, based on models initialized in May, from the WMO Lead Center Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, publishedJune 5th, 2025.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.