Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 106: Published July 3rd, 2025
Conditions as of June 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, poor Belg outcomes are expected in north and central Ethiopia, and conditions are mixed for main season cereals in most areas due to delayed and erratic rains.
In West Africa, planting and development of main season cereals is underway, and there is concern in some Sahelian areas experiencing delayed rains and in conflict-affected areas.
In the Middle East & North Africa, wheat harvesting is nearing completion under mixed conditions due to drier and hotter than normal seasonal outcomes in some areas.
In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is now complete, and many countries are expecting improved prospects compared to last year’s El Niño-induced drought outcomes.
In Central & South Asia, wheat harvesting continues under mostly favourable conditions, except in rainfed areas of Afghanistan, and dry concerns remain for spring wheat development.
In Southeast Asia, rice planting conditions are mostly favourable, except in Brunei where dry conditions are resulting in water shortages and planting delays.
In Central America & the Caribbean, enhanced rains in June improved prospects for maize crops but resulted in planting delays for beans.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: In the north, harvesting of Belg season maize is underway in Ethiopia with poor outcomes expected along the north and centre. Conditions are mixed for main season cereals across the subregion, with delayed and erratic rains impacting many areas, including torrential rains and flooding in southern Somalia. Precipitation through September is expected to be mostly near to above-average, except along eastern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
WEST AFRICA: Planting and development of main season cereals is underway in all regions, and growing conditions remain mostly favourable except along parts of the Sahel that received delayed and below-average rains and in conflict-affected regions. Desert locusts continue to proliferate across some Sahelian areas but are not currently disrupting agricultural activities.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Wheat harvesting is nearing completion, and a mix of drier and hotter than normal conditions is expected to result in poor yields across parts of Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is now complete, and adequate rainfall generally supported cropping outcomes this season. Many countries are expecting improved prospects compared to last year’s poor outputs due to El Niño-induced drought. However, yield declines are expected in parts of Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, and South Africa.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Wheat harvesting is underway, and conditions remain mostly favourable, except in north and central Afghanistan where dry and hot conditions are degrading yield prospects for rainfed crops, particularly along the northern wheat belt. Spring wheat planting is underway, and dry concerns remain in most areas, except in northern Kazakhstan.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In the south, harvesting of wet-season rice mostly finalized in June while planting of dry-season rice is just beginning, and conditions are mostly favourable except in Brunei where dry conditions are causing planting delays. In the north, wet-season rice is in the seeding to young panicle forming stages under favourable conditions.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Planting and development of Primera season cereals is underway, and while enhanced rains in June improved prospects for maize crops following a dry and hot start to the season, the excess soil moisture delayed planting activities for bean crops. In Haiti, vegetation conditions are favourable despite erratic rains received, likely due to irrigation.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation in parts of the Ohio Valley in the US, northwestern Mexico, northwest Brazil, central and eastern of the Russian Federation, southeast Mauritania, eastern and southern Mali, central Niger, northern Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, southeastern South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, central Republic of the Congo, central and northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, northern Rwanda, northwestern India, and western China.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over western Canada, the northwest and southern Great Plains in the US, northeast and southeast Mexico, Haiti, northern Guatemala, western Honduras, eastern Venezuela, central Peru, eastern Bolivia, southern and central Brazil, Paraguay, southern Chile, southern Argentina, Ireland, the United Kingdom, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, southern Denmark, Germany, Poland, central Lithuania, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, northern Switzerland, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, southern Belarus, southern and eastern of the Russian Federation, northern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, northern Iran, Yemen, Oman, Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, east-central Democratic Republic of the Congo, eastern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, western Turkmenistan, southern India, northern Sri Lanka, northwest and central China, the Republic of Korea, central Japan, eastern Vietnam, eastern Thailand, southern Philippines, eastern Malaysia, central Indonesia, and eastern Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 July 2025, issued on 27 June 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: ENSO-neutral conditions present and likely to continue through October 2025
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (96 to 47 percent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). Forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions could potentially occur during October to January (40 percent chance), while the chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Global temperatures for May 2025 were the second warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin.
Impactful heat waves have recently impacted the central and eastern United States, western Europe, and India. Temperature forecasts indicate the potential for abnormally hot conditions during late June and July in parts of central and northeastern Asia, eastern Canada, southern and eastern Europe, Japan, the southern and central United States, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of Belg season maize is underway in Ethiopia under mixed conditions, with poor outcomes expected along the north and centre where a combination of dry conditions this season and socio-economic concerns in the north are expected to reduce yields. Elsewhere in the country, favourable outcomes are expected. Additionally, planting and development of main season cereals continues in Ethiopia (Meher season), South Sudan, and Yemen and is just beginning in Sudan. Early season conditions remain mixed as delayed and limited rains are causing concern in Sudan, west and southern areas of South Sudan, parts of north, central, and eastern Ethiopia, and Yemen. Ongoing conflict is also contributing to crop concerns in Sudan, and socio-economic concerns remain in prior conflict areas of northern Ethiopia. Elsewhere in South Sudan and Ethiopia, agro-climatic conditions are favourable for ongoing crop development, and prospects in northwestern Ethiopia have improved from prior dry concerns.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals finalized in unimodal regions of the United Republic of Tanzania (Msimu season) and is just beginning in Burundi, Rwanda and bimodal regions of Uganda. Elsewhere, planting and development of main season cereals continues in unimodal regions of northeastern Uganda, Kenya, Somalia (Gu season), and unimodal regions along the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania. Overall growing conditions are mixed as erratic seasonal rains are impacting crop development in Rwanda, northwestern Uganda, bimodal regions in the eastern half of Kenya, and Somalia. Torrential rains also negatively impacted crop development in southern Somalia.
The March to May (MAM) rainfall season was characterised as delayed, below-average, and temporally erratic in most regions, except in Kenya and bimodal areas in the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania where seasonal rains were abundant and well distributed. For the start of the June to September (JJAS) rainfall season, June precipitation was generally below-average in north and western areas of the subregion, including in Sudan, South Sudan, the western half of Ethiopia, north and central Uganda, and southeastern Somalia, signalling a delayed start to the JJAS season. Elsewhere, June rains were near to above-average. Additionally, above-normal temperatures were observed from mid-May to mid-June in most areas and are expected to continue through the next several weeks. Precipitation through September is expected to be mostly near to above-average, except along eastern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, including eastern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and northeastern United Republic of Tanzania (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). The enhanced rains could increase the risk of flooding in western Ethiopia, the Sudd Wetlands of South Sudan, and downstream areas of Sudan.
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, planting of main season millet and sorghum is just beginning with concern due to delayed and limited precipitation for the start of the June to September rainy season as well as ongoing conflict. In South Sudan, first season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage in bimodal regions of Western and Central Equatoria, while planting continues in unimodal regions of the country. There is ongoing concern in south and western areas of the country that received delayed and below-average rainfall amounts since March. Elsewhere, adequate rains are expected to benefit yields. However, the flooding extent of the Sudd basin reached a record high in mid-May, and there is a high risk of additional flooding as rains through September are forecast to be near to above-average (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Ethiopia, harvesting of Belg season maize is just beginning, and dry conditions since the start of the season in February are expected to result in poor yield outcomes in minor-producing Belg growing areas of the north and centre, with socio-economic concerns relating to prior conflict contributing to poor outcomes in the north. March to June rainfall totals are close to the driest on record in central and northeastern areas. Conversely, adequate rains received in the west and southwest are expected to result in favourable yield outcomes. Planting of Meher season cereals continues under mixed conditions, with concern in north, central, and eastern areas where delayed and below-average rains are impacting crop emergence. Conversely, conditions are favourable in the west where rainfall outcomes are closer to average, though localized flooding was reported in South Omo region located in the southwest in June. Forecast heavy precipitation in most areas for the June to September Kirempt rainy season is expected to provide sufficient water for irrigation but increases the risk of river overflows, flooding, and water accumulation on farmland (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Yemen, main season sorghum is in the vegetative to reproductive stage while spring wheat planting is just beginning, and there is concern as the March to May rainfall season was drier than average, and the start of the June to September rainfall season has also been delayed and below-average. Additionally, hotter than normal temperatures are exacerbating the dry impacts. Conversely, forecast heavy precipitation from the start of the second rainy season in July through September could lead to crop recovery, but there is a high chance of flooding given the dry soils. August is typically the peak season for flooding.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, Gu season maize and sorghum crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from July. In the northwest, concern remains as limited rains impacted crop emergence, and rainfall totals are close to the driest on record. While cumulative April to June Gu rains were average to above-average across key-cropping southern areas, overall rainfall performance was temporally erratic, with below-average amounts received during several dekads. Conversely, torrential rains received in early May accounted for most of the seasonal rainfall amounts, improving crop conditions but also triggering flooding along the Shabelle region. Forecasts indicate much of the country is expected to receive below-normal rainfall amounts through September, except along parts of the northwest (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Kenya, planting and development of long rains cereals continues throughout the country. In unimodal and major producing areas in the western half of the country (Central, Rift Valley, and Western), a timely onset of the seasonal rains was followed by well above-average amounts, particularly in the southwestern maize basket where rainfall was 40 percent above-average for the March to May period. In bimodal and marginal producing areas in the eastern half of the country, well above-average rains received for the March to May long rains helped to reduce rainfall deficits. However, there is ongoing concern as crops were planted late, and periods of dry spells in combination with an early cessation of rains inhibited adequate crop development. Forecast above-average rains through September across most areas are expected to benefit yields, except along the east and southeastern coast where below-average amounts are expected (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Uganda, harvesting of first season cereals is underway in bimodal areas of the country while crops continue to develop in the unimodal northeast. While recent rains improved cropping prospects in the west, limited rains for the March to May first rainy season continue to impact crop development in the northwest. However, forecast above-average rainfall amounts across all areas through September could lead to crop recovery (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Rwanda, harvesting of season B maize is just beginning, and generally dry conditions during the mid-February through May long rains could reduce yield prospects. In Burundi, harvesting of Season B maize is just beginning while Season B rice is in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from July, and vegetation conditions are near-normal. In the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of Msimu season cereals finalized in unimodal regions of the country under favourable conditions. The November 2024 to April 2025 rainy season was characterized by average rainfall amounts with erratic distribution, including dry conditions in February 2025. However, overall conditions remain favourable, except in Morogoro area in the centre where there may be potential reductions in crop biomass. In the bimodal north and northern coast of the country, Masika season cereals continue to develop for harvest from July, and harvesting of Vuli season sorghum, which relies on the October to December rains, is just beginning under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Late onset of the June to September rains and forecast above-average rains in western and northern areas
June 1st to June 20th rainfall was below average across most western and northern areas of East Africa, signaling a delayed start to the June to September 2025 rainfall season (Figure 1-left). Localized areas of western and coastal Kenya northeastern Uganda received above-average rains. Eastern and southern areas of East Africa received average rains.
In large areas of central, northern-central and northeastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, southern Sudan and northern South Sudan, March 1st to June 20th cumulative precipitation was 100 to 200 mm below average (30 to 75 percent of average).
Forecast below-average rains in some rainfall deficit areas raise concerns that dry conditions may persist in central, northern-central, and northeastern Ethiopia. Close monitoring of agroclimatic stress and impacts in pastoral regions is especially recommended in central-northeastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and localized areas of southwestern South Sudan where CHIRPS rainfall records indicate that March to June 2025 totals may be close to the driest conditions on record. Average to below-average rainfall is forecast in northeastern Ethiopia during the first half of July, based on the CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from July 1st.
During the next several weeks, rainfall conditions will likely be varied. Models indicate wet conditions will develop in western East Africa during early to mid-July. ECMWF and IRI SubC model ensemble forecasts show agreement for wetter-than-average conditions in Uganda, western Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and western and central isn’t Ethiopia. There is less agreement for rainfall in other areas of Ethiopia and Kenya.
Above-average temperatures are also forecast during the next several weeks, across most of East Africa. This follows a period of abnormal heat observed from mid-May to mid-June in the region. In some areas of southern South Sudan and central-northeastern Ethiopia, average daily maximum temperatures were 2 to 3 °C above average and the highest on record for that period.
In western and northern regions forecasts of above-normal July to September (JAS) 2025 rainfall (Figure 1-right) support a positive outlook for improved soil moisture and benefits to cropping activities and pasture in many areas. However, above-average rains also elevate the chances of flash floods and riverine floods. As of early June, flooding was reported in low-lying areas of the South Omo region in Ethiopia from the overflow of Lake Turkana and the Omo River. More than 8,000 people were displaced in Dasenech district. Areas of the Sudd basin in South Sudan are also at high risk of flooding. According to a report by the World Food Programme, in mid-May 2025, the flooded extent of the Sudd basin was the largest on record ahead of the June-September rains, elevating chances of flooding and inundation. A FEWS NET assessment in June reported that upstream lakes in Uganda have historically high water levels and that Nile River water levels in May were higher than in 2024 – all of which could contribute to excess flooding if above-average rains materialize.
In eastern East Africa, the WMO and NMME models indicate below-average rains for the JAS season (Figure 1-right) and beyond. Hot and dry conditions forecast will likely deteriorate pasture in arid and semi arid lands, and may negatively impact the performance of the short rains crops. Multiple ensemble forecasts (NMME, WMO, and C3S) agree that there are heightened risks of below-average rainfall during the 2025 Deyr and Short Rains seasons in eastern East Africa. That outlook is associated with the potential development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole or La Nina conditions (a 40% chance for October to December 2025, according to the June IRI/CPC Official ENSO outlook), according to some models.
Figure 1: Recent and seasonal outlook rainfall anomalies and a 3-month probabilistic rainfall anomaly forecast.
Left, middle-left, and middle-right: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to historical CHIRPS (1981-2024), for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the precipitation anomaly (mm) for June 1st to 20th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data. The middle two panels compare seasonal totals from March 1st to July 5th, using CHIRPS preliminary for June 1st to 20th and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast from June 21st. Middle-left shows this comparison as a percent of average. Middle-right shows how the total for this period compares to the historical record (1981-2024) for the same time period. Red and blue hues indicate the current season total is in the top 3 driest or wettest events in history. Right: WMO probabilistic forecast for July to September 2025 precipitation tercile, based on models initialized in June, from the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, planting and development of main season cereals is underway in all regions, including in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, central Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, planting of second season rice is underway in the northern half of Nigeria. Along the Sahel, planting of main season cereals is underway in all regions, including in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. Across West Africa, agro-climatic conditions remain generally favourable for ongoing crop development. However, rainfall deficits are negatively impacting vegetation conditions in northern Togo, and delayed rainfall onset is negatively impacting planting and crop emergence in some areas of the Sahel, including in western Senegal, southern Mauritania, central Mali, and central Chad. According to CHIRPS3.0 rainfall totals from March 1 to June 10, the southern part of the region, from southern Guinea to the Central African Republic, received up to 300 mm of rainfall, with coastal areas receiving up to 600 mm or more. Conversely, rainfall totals are between 75 mm and 100 mm over the southern part of the Sahelian strip and less than 75 mm in the northern part. However, conditions in Guinea-Bissau have been upgraded to favourable following enhanced rains over the last month. Additionally, conflict continues to negatively impact agricultural outcomes in central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, Lac region in Chad, northeastern Nigeria, north and southwestern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic, and inter-communal violence continues to cause socio-economic challenges in northwestern Nigeria. Furthermore, desert locusts continue to proliferate across some areas. Adult groups and scattered adults remain in Niger and Chad, while scattered adults recently arrived in Mauritania. Forecasts suggest that groups and small swarms are expected to move into the Sahel during June and July, requiring control efforts.
In Cape Verde, planting of the 2025 maize crop, which is the only domestically grown cereal, is expected to begin in July. A forecast average to above-average August to October rainy season is expected to benefit yields. In Benin, a timely start to the March to July first rainy season was followed by mixed performance through early May, resulting in generally adequate precipitation amounts in most areas but rainfall deficits in some localized coastal areas as well as in Borgou and Atakora departments located in the northern half of the country. In southern and central bimodal rainfall areas of Togo, a timely onset of the March to July first rainy season was followed by adequate rains through mid-May that supported planting and crop establishment. In northern unimodal areas, the onset of the rainy season in April was followed by good rains through mid-May that generally benefitted early-planted cereals, except in northern Kara region and southern Savanes region where deficits resulted in below-average vegetation conditions. In Savanes region, especially in the Tandjoare prefecture, a long dry spell in June is posing a significant threat to millet crops sown early in the season. Generally average to above-average rains through August are likely to benefit crops, though some coastal areas may experience drier than normal conditions.
In Gambia, forecast below-average rainfall amounts through July could negatively impact planting activities and establishment of early-planted crops. In southern Mali, a timely onset of the rainy season in mid-April was followed by good precipitation amounts through mid-May that supported planting and crop establishment. In the central and northern regions, planting begins a bit later with the start of the seasonal rains in June, which are currently delayed. Additionally, conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities in the centre and north. Forecast average to above-average rains through September are expected to benefit yields but increase the risk of flooding. In Burkina Faso, an early to on-time start to the rainy season was followed by adequate precipitation amounts through May, which supported planting and crop establishment in most areas. A forecast continuation of average to above-average rains through August is expected to benefit yields but could result in flooding. Furthermore, ongoing conflict continues to affect farming activities in northern and some central areas. In Niger, the June to September rainy season is expected to begin on time and have average to above-average rainfall amounts. Additionally, civil insecurity continues to impact Tillabéri, Tahoua, Maradi, and Diffa regions.
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, wheat harvesting finalized in Egypt and is nearing completion in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran under mixed conditions. This season, drier than normal conditions are expected to result in poor yields across Morocco, northwest and north-central Algeria, northeastern Libya, Lebanon, Syria, northern Iraq, and central and eastern Iran, with hotter than normal conditions exacerbating the dry impacts in Morocco and Syria. Additionally, wetter than normal conditions and flooding received in December 2024 and January 2025 hampered yield prospects in northwestern Libya, and ongoing conflict contributed to agricultural disruptions in Lebanon and Syria. Elsewhere, including much of Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, central-eastern Iraq, and western Iran, favourable outcomes are expected. Additionally, planting of rice crops is underway in Iraq and Iran under favourable conditions.
In Morocco, this season’s winter cereal production is below-average in all areas except for Tangier-Tétouan located in the north. Improved rainfall in March and April resulted in re-greening in parts of the centre and north, but it was too late for significant crop recovery. In Algeria, production of winter cereals is expected to be near-average, with wheat yields forecast at 5 percent above-average and barley yields forecast at 9 percent above-average, though some models are predicting a more pessimistic output. Average to above-average vegetation conditions in parts of the north-centre (Tissemlit, Setif) and the northeast (Oum El Bouaghi, Souk Ahras, Mila, and Guelma) due to adequate rainfall performance are expected to offset poor outcomes in the west (from Tlemcen to Chlef and Relizane and the western half of Tiaret) due to a very dry autumn and winter and some parts of the north-centre (Bordj Bou Arrer and parts of Medea) due to a rainfall deficit in February and March. In Egypt, wheat harvesting began in May and finalized in June, and production is estimated to be slightly above average due to the provision of subsidized seeds and an increase in planted area due to a high government procurement price, which is about 30 percent higher than international prices. Summer-planted rice and maize are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions.
In Syria, dry conditions from the start of the season were exacerbated by hotter than normal temperatures as well as ongoing conflict, and output for winter cereals is expected to be poor. In Iraq, dry conditions this season are expected to result in poor yields in the north, and limited precipitation and low soil moisture levels in the southeast may result in yield declines. Conversely, favourable outcomes are expected in the centre-east. Rice planting is underway, but a ban on rice cultivation this year will limit the total area, similar to in 2022 and 2023. In Iran, winter wheat harvesting is underway with mixed outcomes. Below-average wheat yields are expected in the centre and east of the country due to drier than normal rainfall outcomes this season, while near to above-average yields are expected in the northwest (from Ghazvin to East Azerbayejan and Ardebil) and the west (Khuzestan and Fars) due to irrigation. Conditions along the northern coast have been downgraded to watch due to mixed rainfall performance and vegetation conditions, with little rainfall received in Mazandaran and Golestan located along the northeastern coast. However, biomass levels are adequate in Mazandaran, likely due to irrigation. Rice crops are in the vegetative growth stage in Mazandaran and Gilan with near to above-average biomass despite limited rains received since December 2024 in Mazandaran.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is now complete across all regions, including Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini. This season, the rains began poorly in some areas with significant onset delays. However, rainfall improvements since January generally benefited cropping outcomes, and many areas received good rains through the end of the season in April and May, which benefited late-planted crops but negatively impacted the harvest in some areas, such as central South Africa. Many countries are expecting improved production prospects from
last year’s poor outputs, which were affected by El Niño-induced drought and high temperatures throughout much of the season, as well as a record mid-season dry spell. However, yield declines are expected in some areas due to a combination of erratic rains and extended dry spells this season, including in northwest, east, and southern Zambia and central and southern Malawi, which received record low rainfall amounts, as well as in northern Mozambique and central South Africa, which were impacted by both rainfall deficits and storm impacts. The yield declines in northeastern Mozambique are also attributed to ongoing conflict.
Furthermore, wheat planting continues in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho under mostly favourable conditions. Above-normal summer rains resulted in favourable conditions for both rainfed and irrigated crops in South Africa.
In Zambia, while reduced yields are expected in parts of the country due to dry conditions, overall production is expected to increase significantly compared to last year’s reduced level, which was impacted by the driest agricultural season in more than forty years. In Madagascar, rice harvesting continues in the centre and east, with favourable outcomes expected despite rainfall deficits this season. In South Africa, maize harvesting is complete with mostly favourable yields due to above-normal rainfall received during the summer as well as a delayed frost season. However, yield declines are expected in Free State where crops were affected by a combination of dry conditions through January and early February, followed by an overly wet harvesting period, particularly in April. Free State, Mpumalanga, and North West provinces are expected to produce the majority of the 2025 maize crop. At the national level, maize production is expected to increase 14 percent compared to the previous year’s reduced amount, which was 13 percent below average at the national level in 2024. Additionally, wheat planting continues under favourable conditions. Over the winter rainfall region, above-normal rainfall received since early June, especially over western parts of the region, is supporting dryland production. Over the summer rainfall region, soil moisture levels are relatively high following a wet summer, and sufficient water is available in the river systems for irrigation. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of main season maize and sorghum finalized in the southeast while planting and development continues in the north and west. Additionally, harvesting of second season maize is underway in the north while crops continue to develop in the central-east. Over the last month, erratic rains were received in the north and west, resulting in reduced soil moisture that may affect planting and germination. However, growing conditions remain adequate, and rains are expected to improve from late June through early July (See Global Climate Outlook Pg. 3). Additionally, in Kivu region located in the central-east, ongoing conflict worsened in January 2025 and has resulted in increased displacement and field abandonment. The conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities and limit farmers’ access to inputs and markets.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, wheat harvesting finalized in Pakistan and is underway in Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Conditions remain mostly favourable, except along the northern wheat belt and central areas of Afghanistan where dry and hot conditions are degrading yield prospects for rainfed crops. Spring wheat crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia for harvest from August, and dry concerns remain in most areas due to limited precipitation received this season, except in northern Kazakhstan where rainfall amounts are adequate. Record low precipitation totals for April to June were experienced across most of Afghanistan, parts of northern Pakistan, and southern Turkmenistan. Below-average rainfall is forecast to continue through September across west and eastern Kazakhstan, western Uzbekistan, western Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and northeastern Afghanistan, while the monsoon season is expected to bring above-average rains to Pakistan and south and eastern Afghanistan (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14).
In southern Kazakhstan, winter wheat crops are mostly in the grain filling to ripening stages under favourable conditions despite slightly elevated temperatures and below-average precipitation. Spring wheat crops continue to develop under mixed conditions. Across the main producing northern regions of Akmola, Kostanay, and North Kazakhstan, early snowmelt and steady temperatures provided ideal sowing conditions. Conversely, below-normal precipitation is negatively impacting crop development across the minor-producing south. For the 2025 planting campaign, concessional loans were made to farmers earlier than normal, beginning prior to the start of the season in December 2024 rather than at the start of the planting season in March. The approach enabled early completion of field preparation, an expansion of cropped area, and the utilization of modern acro-technology. This year’s sowing activities finalized on time in June. Some farmland was reallocated to more profitable and resilient crops, while there was a reduction in resource-intensive and price-volatile crops, including wheat, rice, and cotton. Planted area of wheat was 13 million hectares, a reduction of 187,000 hectares compared to last year. In Afghanistan, wheat harvesting is underway, and rainfall deficits, low soil moisture levels, and hot temperatures have significantly impacted rainfed crops, particularly along the northern wheat belt. The 2024/25 wheat season began with below-average but timely and adequately distributed October to December 2024 rains, which supported sowing and crop establishment for both irrigated and rainfed areas. Erratic rainfall continued between January and March 2025, with periods of heavier amounts that benefited crops emerging from dormancy. However, water deficits and a prolonged dry spell began to negatively impact rainfed wheat in April and May, curbing the critical grain filling and flowering stages along the north and central regions. The situation is particularly severe along the northern wheat belt where there will be a significant reduction in the quality and quantity of wheat for the rainfed harvest. While there is also concern in the Central Highlands region, potato is the primary staple crop for the region rather than wheat. As of early June, cumulative seasonal rainfall is below average in most areas, particularly in the west, southwest, central, and central highlands regions where precipitation is only 60 to 75 percent of average, and the snow water volumes are at record lows in most basins. Above-average temperatures are also exacerbating the dry concerns. Conversely, in irrigated areas, conditions remain favourable as farmers extracted groundwater to supplement surface water deficits, a trend that has accelerated substantially in recent years, particularly in the Helmand Basin. Poppy cultivation increased this year in southern areas of the country and in Badakhshan province located in the northeast, and some groundwater extraction was used for this purpose. Planting for second season maize and rice crops began in eastern provinces, and current conditions are mixed due to a lack of surface water. Furthermore, monsoon precipitation (June/July through August/September) is expected to be stronger than normal this year (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14). The monsoon rains typically impact the south and southeast of the country but can extend into central and northern regions during stronger monsoon years. In Pakistan, harvesting of Rabi season wheat finalized under favourable conditions. Despite below-average cumulative precipitation amounts between October 2024 and May 2025, wheat production is officially estimated at 29 million tonnes, representing a 5 percent increase compared to average but an 8 percent decrease compared to 2024’s level of 31.4 million tonnes. The increase is attributed to bumper yields in the main irrigated wheat producing areas where there was sufficient irrigation water supply. The use of groundwater as a substitute for surface water is increasing, which in turn is increasing the cost of production. Conversely, dry weather conditions resulted in localized crop losses along the rainfed barani areas, which account for 20 percent of total plantings, as well as in some minor irrigated northern areas due to a shortage of irrigation water. Additionally, planting of Kharif (summer) season rice is just beginning, and favourable planting conditions are expected to result in a bumper and possibly record-breaking harvest. However, rice exports are expected to decrease this year as India has re-entered the global market, following a rice export ban.
Regional Outlook: Extreme below-average snowpack due to highly abnormal dry and warm conditions
The Spring 2025 precipitation season in southern areas of Central Asia ended with drier-than-average conditions in most areas (Figure 1 top-left and middle). Below-average rainfall during recent weeks, from May 21st to June 20th, also occurred in southern Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Central Tajikistan and portions of Kyrgyzstan and central Kazakhstan received above-average rainfall.
October 2024 to May 2025 seasonal precipitation totals are also substantially below average, with amounts in many areas ranging from less than 60 to 75 percent of average. In Afghanistan, the 2024-2025 precipitation totals are much lower than in 2023-2024, especially in central, southern, and northwestern and northern areas, and lower than average. Most locations south of southern Kazakhstan received 60 to 90 percent of average precipitation.
In Central Asia, seasonal climate model forecasts do not support a confident summer precipitation outlook, but these do indicate elevated chances of below-normal precipitation in some areas– in western and eastern Kazakhstan, western areas of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (Figure 1 top-right). During late June to early July, the unbiased GEFS forecasts below-average precipitation in Kyrgyzstan.
In Pakistan and portions of southern and eastern Afghanistan, the summer monsoon season may be wetter-than-normal, which would increase flood risk and contribute to groundwater recharge in impacted areas. Substantial groundwater extraction has likely played a role in the success of current irrigated agriculture in Afghanistan and will be needed for second-season crops, as low seasonal precipitation totals and early snow losses will have impacted surface water availability across much of the country.
This is the sixth consecutive year with below-average snow water equivalent for the region in and near Afghanistan. Below-average precipitation suppressed snowpack development throughout the snow season. This resulted in snow water equivalent levels that peaked in March at historically very low amounts and then exhibited a strikingly rapid decline (Figure 1 bottom-left).
The signficant snowpack reductions during Spring 2025 are attributed to very low precipitation amounts and many weeks with highly above-average temperatures. Precipitation totals for April 1st to June 20th were substantially below average and ranked among the lowest on a 42-year CHIRPS record across central, northern, and northeastern Afghanistan, and in portions of northern Pakistan, and southern Turkmenistan (Figure 1 bottom-middle). Average maximum temperatures were 1 to 4 °C higher than average across this region. Temperatures were record-high in Hindu Kush and Pamir Mountain areas in northeastern Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and southeastern Turkmenistan and in lower elevation areas in central-western Afghanistan (Figure 1 bottom-right).
Many areas across Central Asia, such as in Kazakhstan, also experienced record-warm temperatures in Spring 2025. Models forecast that Summer 2025 temperatures will very likely be hotter than normal in many central and southern areas, including in southern Kazakhstan and locations to the south including Afghanistan and northern Pakistan.
Figure 1. Recent and seasonal precipitation anomalies, a 3-month probabilistic forecast for precipitation, regional snow water equivalent, and the locations of extreme Spring 2025 precipitation and temperatures.
Top-Left and middle: CHC Early Estimates. These compare recent precipitation totals to historical CHIRPS, for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the difference from average for May 21st to June 20th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for June. The middle shows a seasonal outlook, from April 1st to July 5th, by also including a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from June 21st. Top-right: C3S multi-system seasonal probabilistic forecast for July to September 2025 precipitation tercile (June initial conditions), from Copernicus Climate Change Service. Bottom-left: Variations in regional Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (mm) for a region surrounding Afghanistan (60-76E, 32-39N). The dotted line indicates average SWE (2001-2024 period), the blue line shows SWE for Oct. 2023 - Sep. 2024, and the red line shows SWE for Oct. 2024 to June 24th, 2025. From NASA, using SWE estimates from the FLDAS Central Asia model. Bottom-middle: Precipitation rank map. Red and blue hues indicate where the April 1st to June 20th, 2025, total is in the top 3 driest or wettest years on the CHIRPS 44-year record. Bottom-right: Average daily maximum 2m temperature anomaly for April 1st to June 20th, 2025, compared to a 1991-2020 average. Crosses indicate where these values were highest since 1981. Based on CHIRTS-ERA5 data (bias-corrected ECMWF ERA5T), from UCSB CHC.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of wet-season rice mostly finalized in June, and total production is expected to be good due to sufficient water and sunlight received during the growing period. Additionally, planting of dry-season rice is underway. Crops are in the seeding to early growing stage, and conditions are mostly favourable due to sufficient irrigation water supply, except in Brunei where dry conditions are resulting in a lack of water and planting delays. In northern Southeast Asia, wet-season rice is mostly in the seeding to young panicle forming stage under favourable conditions. The rainy season began earlier than the previous year, providing sufficient water for rice development, and overall planted area is expected to be near to slightly below-normal. In Thailand, planted area is expected to decrease slightly due to a decreasing rice price, and some farmers converted their rice fields to sugarcane. In northern Viet Nam, yield is slightly lower than last year due to a shift towards higher quality rice varieties, and temperature fluctuations negatively impacted crops in a localized part of the North Central area. In Cambodia, flooding in mid-June impacted north and central areas and could negatively impact rice yields if it continues. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, growing conditions remain favourable.
In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice mostly finalized in June under favourable conditions. A total of 6.2 million hectares was harvested, which is 12.4 percent higher than the last wet season due to sufficient water and sunlight received during the growing period. June is also the third month of dry-season rice planting, and the planted area remains low as farmers are still preparing the land following the wet-season rice harvest. Current planted area is 2.8 million hectares, which is slightly lower than the last dry season. Conditions are favourable for crops in the early vegetative stages with sufficient irrigation water, and rainfall amounts are generally adequate with some areas experiencing high amounts. In Malaysia, planting of dry-season rice has reached 90 percent of the total cultivated area as of June, and the remaining planting activities are focused in the south and eastern coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia. Weather conditions are favourable for rice growth with normal amounts observed across most areas, except for some localized western coastal areas of Peninsular Malaysia experiencing relatively dry conditions. In Brunei, 60 percent of the planned area for dry-season rice has been planted, and 10 percent of those areas have entered the reproductive and ripening stages. Dry conditions are resulting in a lack of water and planting delays for the dry season, and precipitation received in April and June has been significantly less compared to previous years.
In the Philippines, wet-season rice planted from April to May is now in the tillering to young panicle forming stage under favourable conditions, and near to above-normal rains for June are expected to benefit crop development. The final harvested area may increase due to sufficient water supply and seed distribution by the government this year. In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the sowing and early tillering stage under favourable conditions, and early rains in April allowed for early planting activities this season. However, the planted area is expected to decline slightly due to a decreasing rice price. Some paddy fields in the northeast were converted to sugarcane due to the comparatively higher price as well as subsidies offered by sugar mills. Total rainfall this season is expected to be sufficient for rice cultivation, and both yield and production are expected to increase compared to last year. In northern Viet Nam, dry-season (winter-spring) rice is in the harvesting stage under mostly favourable conditions. An area of 0.23 million hectares has been harvested with an estimated yield of 6.3 tons per hectare, representing a 2.8 percent decline compared to last year due to a shift towards higher quality rice varieties, which tend to have lower yields. Additionally, in a localized part of the North Central area, early season cold weather combined with significant fluctuations in day and high temperatures adversely affected panicle differences and grain formation. In the south, wet-season (summer-autumn) rice is in the seeding and tillering stage under favourable conditions with good rainfall amounts, and the current sown area has reached 1.3 million hectares. In lowland areas of Laos, wet-season rice is in the land preparation and seeding stage under favourable conditions, and weather conditions and irrigation water supply are currently adequate for paddy growth. The national planting plan is approximately 766.5 thousand hectares, representing a slight increase compared to last year, and production is expected to be over 3.2 million tons. In upland areas, the national planting plan is 87.7 thousand hectares, with an expected production of 180 thousand tons. In Myanmar, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion under favourable conditions. This year, 1.1 million hectares were planted, and 5.5 million tons were produced with a yield of 5.5 tons per hectare, which is similar to last year. Planting of wet-season rice began in June but has only reached 135 thousand hectares in rainfed areas, accounting for 2.2 percent of the national planting plan of 6.04 million hectares. In Cambodia, planting of wet-season rice is progressing faster than last year due to an early start to the rainy season and adequate precipitation received. Planted area reached 1.5 million hectares, representing 51 percent of the national cultivation area, and crops are mostly in the tillering to young panicle stage under favourable conditions. However, parts of the centre and north experienced flooding in mid-June, and if the flooding continues, it could negatively impact crop yields, particularly for early planted rice that will be harvested in August.
In Sri Lanka, Yala season maize (10 percent of annual maize output) and rice (35 percent of annual rice output) crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions, and harvesting will begin in August. In Nepal, harvesting of both winter wheat and second season rice finalized in June under favourable conditions. Planting and development of main season maize and rice is underway, and growing conditions are favourable. In Bangladesh, harvesting of Boro season rice (55 percent of annual rice output and mostly irrigated) finalized in May under favourable conditions with an increase in planted area due to high domestic prices and an increase in production due to a combination of high-yielding seed varieties as well as favourable weather outcomes this season. Additionally, harvesting of summer/Kharif season maize (15 percent of annual maize output) is just beginning while planting and development of Aus season rice (10 percent of annual rice output), Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice output), and main season sorghum continues under favourable conditions. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage while rice planting continues, and overall conditions remain favourable. Abundant rainfall from April to June, ranging from 50 to 100 percent above normal, resulted in above-average crop biomass across all regions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, planting and development for the Primera season is underway in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. At the beginning of the season in April and May, planting activities were delayed in many areas due to limited and erratic rains as well as above-average temperatures. For subsistence farmers, the erratic and irregular distribution of rains required replanting, and some larger producing farmers faced insufficient irrigation due to low river levels in April and May. Conversely, rainfall improvements since late May in most areas, except in northern Guatemala, resulted in soil moisture improvements as well as flooding in many areas, particularly in the Pacific region and parts of Guatemala and Nicaragua. The recent rains generally improved prospects for maize crops but negatively affected sowing activities for beans due to excess soil moisture. Beans are more sensitive to moisture levels, and many farmers are awaiting a reduction of rainfall for June, when there are normally drier conditions, to restart planting. Drier and hotter than normal conditions are expected to continue through September in Haiti and Cuba, while mixed rainfall is expected across Central America. A likely active 2025 Atlantic hurricane season heightens flood risks, particularly in areas of west and eastern Guatemala, western Honduras, and eastern Nicaragua expecting above-average rains (See Regional Outlook Pg. 19).
In northern Guatemala, precipitation remains below-average, and some areas faced a 30-day delay in sowing due to inadequate moisture and despite improved rains in late June. Additionally, vegetation conditions are below-normal in some areas, including parts of the centre and in Quetzaltenango department located in the southwest due to dry and hot conditions in April and May. Recent rains in June may lead to crop improvement, though some floods have been reported in the south. In Olancho department located in central-eastern Honduras, planting activities began earlier than normal, but many farmers lost their planted crops due to limited rains received. Additionally, water deficits are present across much of Cortés, Santa Bárbara, and Comayagua departments located in the west. Furthermore, in some key paddy producing departments where the crop is primarily rainfed, including Olancho, Cortés, and Comayagua, vegetation conditions remain below-average due to drier than normal conditions received between late April and late May and despite increased precipitation received in June. In Nicaragua, vegetation conditions are below-normal in León, Nueva Segovia, and Matagalpa departments located in the northwest and centre of the country as well as in Granada and Rivas departments located in the southwest.
In Haiti, the March to mid-June rainy season began well, supporting the start of Printemps season cereal planting in April. However, rainfall became increasingly erratic from late May onward, with a pattern of heavy rainfall in April followed by drier-than-normal conditions and intermittent flooding in late May and June. These fluctuations damaged some emerging crop areas and led to mixed crop performance. However, vegetation remains average to above average in many areas, likely due to the use of irrigation which helped to offset the poor rainfall performance and high temperatures. In general, high production costs and heightened insecurity likely constrain planted area this season. Domestic cereal production has been declining since 2018 and is also expected to contract this year as limited agricultural inputs, deteriorating assets, and prolonged insecurity have resulted in land abandonment and reduced yields. Additional roadblocks between rural areas and Port-au-Prince are limiting food availability and increasing prices. Furthermore, while precipitation is expected to be near-average through July, the forecast active June to November hurricane season could pose risks to developing crops (See Regional Outlook Pg. 19). In Cuba, harvesting of second season rice (1/3 of annual rice production) finalized under favourable conditions. Planting of main season rice and maize is underway, and dry conditions since the start of the season in April continue to disrupt planting progress. Vegetation conditions are below-normal in the east, including in Holguín, one of the main paddy producing provinces.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Erratic and overall below-average rainfall in northern areas
Erratic and overall below-average rainfall continued in northern areas during recent weeks. Rainfall totals for May 21st to June 20th range from 45 to 75 percent of average in central and northern Guatemala, Haiti, and Cuba, and western Nicaragua (Figure 1 top-left). During mid-June, however, much wetter above-average rainfall conditions were observed across northern Central America. Heavy rains led to flooding in Escuintla, Alta Verapaz, and Sacatepequez Departments in Guatemala and Tegucigalpa Department in Nicaragua. Despite the recent rainfall in mid June which reduced the seasonal rainfall deficit, delays in sowing activities were reported due to the erratic rainfall distribution at the beginning of the season. Maximum temperatures were above average across northern areas between late May and mid-June, and in northern Guatemala and central Cuba, hot temperatures occurred more frequently than usual– indicating that excess heat may have exacerbated impacts on moisture-stressed crops and favored pest and disease conditions (Figure 1 top-right).
Seasonal rainfall totals based on April 1st to June 20th data and a forecast through July 5th (Figure 1 top-middle) are above average in western Guatemala, northern and eastern Honduras, central and eastern Nicaragua, and portions of El Salvador. In northern areas, Primera and Printemps season rainfall deficits were characterized by an extreme late onset of rains in northern Guatemala, dry spells in mid-late May in many locations, and dry conditions that continued into late June in Cuba and Haiti.
During the next two weeks, from late June and early July, below-average rainfall is forecast in the Caribbean. The ongoing drier and hotter-than-normal conditions in Haiti and Cuba will likely continue during July to September, based on indications from seasonal climate models (Figure 1-bottom). Over Central America, mixed rainfall conditions are forecast during the next two weeks. Central and northern Guatemala rainfall deficits will likely improve, while forecast above average, high rainfall totals will increase flood risks in western and eastern Guatemala, western Honduras, and eastern Nicaragua.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be active, with an above-normal number of storms (60 percent chance) and three to five major hurricanes (70 percent chance), according to NOAA’s May outlook.
Figure 1. Recent and seasonal outlook precipitation anomalies, recent abnormally hot conditions, and 3-month probabilistic forecast for precipitation and very high 2m temperatures.
Top left and top-middle: CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average (1981-2024), for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the difference from average precipitation for May 21st to June 20th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for June. The top-middle panel shows the difference from average for April 1st to July 5th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for June and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from June 21st. Top-right: A hot days anomaly map for May 21st to June 20th, 2025. The frequency of hot days (Tmax > 34 degC) in 2025 is compared to the typical frequency of hot days (the 1991-2020 average). Locations where hot days occurred more often than is typical for this period are shown in red. The values indicate the number of days compared to average. Bottom: NMME model probabilistic forecasts for July to September 2025 precipitation tercile (bottom-left) and very high (> 80th percentile) 2m temperatures (bottom-right), based on June initial conditions, 94 ensemble members, and a 1991-2020 baseline. From CHC NMME.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published July 3rd, 2025.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.