Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 108: Published September 4th, 2025
Conditions as of August 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, heavy rains and subsequent flooding are impacting crop development in parts of the north, while dry seasonal outcomes are expected to result in poor yields in parts of Kenya and Somalia.
In West Africa, agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable as harvesting ramps up along the south, though concern remains in conflict-affected areas.
In the Middle East & North Africa, wheat harvesting finalized in July and is now out of season in all regions.
In Southern Africa, conditions remain favourable for wheat crop development, and planting for the 2025/26 main season will begin in October.
In Central & South Asia, winter wheat harvesting finalized under poor conditions in rainfed areas of Afghanistan and throughout Uzbekistan, and there is ongoing concern for spring wheat across parts of the region.
In Southeast Asia, conditions remain mostly favourable for ongoing paddy cultivation, except in Brunei and southeastern Nepal.
In Central America, irregular rains and high temperatures for the Primera season continue to disrupt seasonal progress and are causing concern across Guatemala, Honduras, and western Nicaragua.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Main season cereals continue to develop across northern areas with concern due to heavy rains and resultant flooding in parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia (Meher season), and Yemen. Average to above-average rains are forecast to continue in north and western areas through September (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). Harvesting is underway in the south, and overall dry weather resulted in poor yield outcomes across parts of Kenya and Somalia. Forecasts indicate dry and hot conditions for the October to December rainfall season, particularly in the east, which may impact short rains cereals (See Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 8).
WEST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is ramping up in the west while planting and development continue along the Sahel, and generally conducive weather outcomes this season have been beneficial for agricultural production despite localized impacts of both rainfall deficits and flooding (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). However, concern remains in conflict-affected areas.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Wheat harvesting finalized in July and is now out of season in all regions. Conditions remain favourable for ongoing rice cultivation in Egypt and Iran.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Wheat crops continue to develop in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho, and yield prospects are favourable. However, in Zambia, an estimated 45 percent reduction in planted area is expected to result in below-average wheat production.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Winter wheat harvesting finalized under mostly poor conditions in rainfed areas of Afghanistan and throughout Uzbekistan due to seasonal rainfall deficits. Spring wheat harvesting is underway, and dry concerns remain in most areas. In Pakistan, record-breaking floods have resulted in extensive damage to rice crops.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Harvesting of dry-season rice is underway in the south while planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion in the north, and growing conditions are generally favourable despite localized damage from typhoons and resultant flooding this season in the north.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN:Harvesting of Primera season cereals is just beginning but is largely delayed due to late and irregularly distributed rains, high temperatures, and recent intermittent heavy rains, which are leading to the proliferation of pests and diseases. Forecast dry conditions in many areas through early September may be followed by a shift to near to above-normal amounts, and high temperatures are expected to continue (See Regional Outlook Pg. 18).
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over southern Texas in the US, northeastern Mexico, southern Peru, western and northern Bolivia, central and southern Brazil, southern Mauritania, southern Mali, northeastern Guinea, northwestern Niger, northeastern Nigeria, central and southern Chad, northern Cameroon, central Afghanistan, central west Pakistan, central India, central China, northeastern Russia, the southern Philippines, southern and western Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern New Zealand.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over central Canada, the southwest US, northwest and southeast Mexico, western Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Ecuador, northern and southeastern Brazil, southern Chile, northern Germany, Czechia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, western Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Greece, eastern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, central and southern Russia, northwestern Iran, southern Yemen, Ethiopia, northern Somalia, southern Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, southern Mozambique, western and eastern South Africa, eastern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, northern Tajikistan, northern Pakistan, southern India, southern Sri Lanka, northwest China, central Mongolia, western Indonesia, eastern Malaysia, and the northern Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 September 2025, issued on 29 August 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: La Niña Watch and emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole event
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (87 to 43 percent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). Forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions could potentially occur during October to January (up to a 49 percent chance), while the chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may develop during August to October 2025, based on observations during late July and forecasts from C3S and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts (~ 50 to 60 percent chances). Negative IOD conditions typically lead to below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa and above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region.
Global temperatures for May 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin.
During late June to July, heatwaves occurred in China, Europe, Japan, the Middle East, the United States, and South Korea. During late July to August, above-average temperatures are forecast in parts of central and northeastern Asia, central and northern Eurasia, the Middle East, central and northern North America, southern South America, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals finalized in bimodal regions of South Sudan, with favourable outcomes expected despite limited cumulative rainfall deficits. Main season crops continue to develop across unimodal regions of South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia (Meher season), Eritrea, and Yemen under mixed conditions. Additionally, planting of second season cereals is just beginning in bimodal regions of South Sudan that finalized harvesting for the first season. Across much of Sudan, unimodal areas of South Sudan, northwest and central-eastern Ethiopia, and southwestern Yemen, heavy rains and subsequent flooding impacts are causing concern for crop development, and average to above-average rains are forecast to continue through September in north and western areas of the region (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). Persistent conflict also continues to disrupt agricultural activities across Sudan. Additionally, previously delayed rains continue to impact bimodal regions of South Sudan, central-west and central-eastern Ethiopia, and much of Yemen. Elsewhere, including in Eritrea and west and southwestern Ethiopia, growing conditions remain favourable.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals finalized in Burundi, bimodal regions of the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, bimodal regions of central and southern Uganda, bimodal regions in the eastern half of Kenya, and Somalia. Elsewhere, harvesting continues in unimodal regions of northern Uganda and unimodal regions in the western half of Kenya. Dry weather outcomes this season are expected to reduce yields in bimodal Kenya and throughout Somalia. Elsewhere, harvesting conditions are favourable with near-average yields expected, and crops in coastal Kenya and unimodal Uganda have recovered from previous dry concerns.
The June to September rainfall season was categorized by a delayed onset with extreme rainfall deficits that limited cultivation in some areas, followed by enhanced rainfall in August and subsequent flooding that eased seasonal moisture deficits across the north but also limited cultivation and damaged crops in flood-affected areas. Delayed and below-normal October to December rains are expected over most eastern areas, particularly in southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern parts of the United Republic of Tanzania, driven by the likelihood of La Niña development and an emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole (See Climate Influences Pg. 3). Conversely, pockets of early to normal onset and above-average rains are expected in some western areas, including southeastern South Sudan, northeast and southwestern Uganda, northern Somalia, and northern Rwanda. Additionally, warmer than normal temperatures are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa through December, particularly over eastern areas, which could exacerbate dry conditions (See Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 8).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, main season millet and sorghum crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from November, and ongoing conflict continues to disrupt all agricultural operations. Additionally, recent heavy rains and resultant flooding from late July have impacted much of the country, including North Kordofan state in the centre, River Nile state in the northeast, Sennar state in the southeast, Northern Darfur and Southern Darfur states in the west, and other areas. In southern bimodal regions of South Sudan, harvesting of first season maize and sorghum finalized in August with favourable outcomes expected due to adequate rainfall distribution. However, limited rainfall deficits are expected to result in moderate yield reductions. Planting of second season maize and sorghum is underway and will be harvested in late 2025 through early 2026. Following a delayed rainfall onset in July, above-average rains in August benefited planting and germination of early-planted crops, and a forecast continuation of above-average rains in most of these areas between September and December will likely benefit yields (See Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 8). In central and northern unimodal areas, the 2025 main season crops are at varying stages of development. Significant rainfall deficits in eastern areas affected vegetation conditions, especially in parts of Upper Nile and Jonglei States where crop production shortfalls are expected. Conversely, abundant rains in August benefited crops, and forecast above-average rains through November will likely result in partial crop recovery. However, the recent above-average rains exacerbated floods due to the overflow of the River Nile and its tributaries, and the forecast continuation of high precipitation amounts, in combination with already elevated water extents and the release of dams from upstream areas of Uganda and Ethiopia, heightens the risk of widespread flooding. Peak flooding is expected from September to December, with Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity, Warrap, Lakes, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and parts of Central Equatoria at high risk. The seasonal extent of flooded areas is expected to be on par with the high 2024 levels (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). Despite the flood risk, crop damage is expected to remain localized as the floods occurred from July onwards, when crops were mature and less vulnerable to flood damage. Furthermore, a significant deterioration of the protracted security situation in 2025 resulted in disruptions to agricultural activities in several areas, with the potential for substantial crop losses. In Ethiopia, Meher season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from September, and growing conditions are mixed with concern in the northwest and centre-east due to a combination of delayed June to September Kiremt rains followed by heavy rainfall and resultant flooding and landslides received over the last month. Elsewhere, growing conditions remain favourable. In Eritrea, wheat crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from November, while sorghum planting is just beginning, and overall conditions remain favourable. In Yemen, main season sorghum and winter wheat crops continue to develop for harvest from September, and delayed rains continue to negatively impact crop growth. Following a historically dry first rainy season from March to May, the second rainy season from July to October is delayed and expected to have below-average cumulative amounts. Conversely, torrential rains in late August triggered flash floods and submerged farmland in the south, including in Aden governorate, and more heavy rain is expected through early September (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). Extreme weather events compounded by protracted conflict and economic collapse are disrupting agricultural production, and the most significant losses are expected in Ibb, Lahij, Ta’izz, Al Dhale’e, Dhamar, Ma’rib, Hadramout, and Amran governorates.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, harvesting of Gu season maize and sorghum crops, which account for 60 percent of total cereal output, finalized in August with generally poor yields expected due to erratic rains and abnormally dry weather. In the northwest, these conditions led to near-total crop failure in Togdheer and very low yields elsewhere. In contrast, comparatively better harvests are expected in some southern regions, supported by improved Gu rainfall, timely land preparation, and improved irrigation, with surplus production in Bay and Lower Shabelle helping offset localized losses in Gedo, Hiiraan, and Bakool. Land preparation will start in September for the upcoming Deyr cropping season, and there is a high likelihood for below-average seasonal rains across southern and central areas, associated with the emerging negative IOD and forecast La Niña event, which could negatively impact planting and crop emergence (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 8). In bimodal and marginal producing areas in the eastern half of Kenya, harvesting of long rains maize finalized in August under mixed conditions, with favourable outcomes along the coast and poor outcomes in the east and northeast where dry conditions negatively impacted crop yields. In unimodal and major producing areas in the western half of the country (Rift Valley, Western, and Central regions), planting and development of long rains cereals continues under favourable conditions, and harvesting is just beginning in some areas. In Uganda, harvesting of first season cereals is complete or nearing completion, and planting of second season maize is just beginning. Conditions remain favourable in bimodal central and southern areas. Despite intermittent dry spells in Karamoja region, conditions have been upgraded to favourable in the unimodal north following improved rains in August, though the rains also brought flooding to parts of the east (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Burundi, harvesting of Season B rice finalized in August under favourable conditions. In Rwanda and Burundi, land preparation for Season A maize is underway, and planting will begin in September. In bimodal regions along the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of Masika season cereals finalized in August under favourable conditions. Land preparation for Vuli season maize and sorghum is underway, and planting will begin in September. Forecasts indicate a high likelihood for below-average rains across central and eastern areas during October to December (See Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 8).
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Above-average rains forecast in northern and western areas in September
Rainfall in recent weeks was average to above average in many western and northern areas of East Africa. Rains in portions of central-northern and southwestern Ethiopia, central Sudan and southern South Sudan were 125 to 200 percent of average, and higher in the arid Afar region of Ethiopia (Figure 1-left). Moderate rainfall deficits were observed in localized areas of southwestern and northern South Sudan, central Ethiopia, and central and eastern Sudan. Above-normal temperatures were recorded in several areas of Sudan. A heatwave with temperatures reaching up to 47°C in Port Sudan in eastern Sudan led to the death of 24 people and more than 155 reported cases of heatstroke (Reliefweb).
Overall, seasonal rains improved substantially in August. The June to September 2025 rains had a slow start and were mostly below average in June and July. Heavy rains in August reduced the seasonal deficits and improved soil moisture conditions for crops. Vegetation conditions also improved, with most areas showing average to above-average conditions based on NDVI anomalies.
Moderate rainfall deficits persist across eastern Sudan and localized portions of western Ethiopia, however these deficits are forecast to improve. Favorable conditions across northern and western East Africa are expected to continue in late August and early September. Figure 1-right shows an outlook for June 1st to September 10th, 2025, based on preliminary August data and a forecast for August 26th to September 10th. Longer range WMO, NMME and C3S multimodel ensemble forecasts initialized in August 2025, also indicate favorable conditions through September. According to these models above-average rains are forecast across Uganda, South Sudan, central and southern Sudan and western Ethiopia which will support early planted crops in vegetative to maturation stages.
While these rains are expected to benefit crop development, they also heighten the risk of flooding and related impacts in this region. In late August, heavy rains and flooding displaced hundreds and destroyed farmland in Teso region eastern Uganda. In Ethiopia, torrential rains led to flooding of the Awash river in Shewa Zone northern-central Ethiopia where more than 5,000 people were displaced and over 2,400 hectares of farmland were destroyed. Flash floods were reported in North Darfur western Sudan, where about 900 people were displaced. In South Sudan, flooding in Unity and Jonglei states has exposed more than 80,000 people to stagnant flood waters. Conflict, hunger, flooding and poor sanitation has exacerbated a cholera outbreak, further straining vulnerable communities. The seasonal extent of flooded areas in South Sudan will be on par with the high levels of 2024, or possibly higher, based on a FEWS NET outlook using a hydrologic forecast and satellite observations of inundated areas and lake levels.
Figure 1. Recent and seasonal precipitation anomaly.
Both panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average (1981-2024), for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the percent of average precipitation for July 26th to August 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for August. The right panel shows an outlook for June 1st to September 10th precipitation anomalies, using preliminary CHIRPS for August and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast from August 26th, 2025.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Seasonal Forecast Alert: Increased chances of a drier and hotter-than-normal October to December (OND) 2025 season in eastern East Africa
The OND 2025 forecasts from the 71st GHA Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF71) (Figure 1-left and middle) and WMO, NMME, and C3S multi-model ensembles all indicate elevated chances of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures in eastern and southern East Africa. The forecast chances of below-normal rains are highest in central and eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and eastern Tanzania, and range from 55 and to 70 percent across the area and the forecasts. According to GHACOF71, seasonal rains may be delayed in southern Somalia, parts of eastern and central-western Tanzania, and eastern-central Kenya. Across most of East Africa, the chances of above-normal temperatures are forecast to be higher than usual.
The increased chances of below-normal OND 2025 rainfall forecast in eastern and southern East Africa is associated with ongoing and forecast negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, as well as forecast La Niña or La Niña-like conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
Negative IOD index values were observed beginning in late July. These intensified during August and are likely to continue for several months. Negative IOD conditions in August almost always remain negative through October (89 percent of the time), based on historical observations during 1950 to 2024. This negative IOD event has a strong chance of lasting through November (84 percent chance), and potentially into December 2025 (55 percent chance), according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology forecast from August 23rd. Recent negative IOD weekly index values of -1.2 °C and the forecast values suggest that moderate or strong negative IOD conditions may occur during the onset and peak rainfall months of OND season rains in Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia, and during planting and crop development periods in eastern Kenya.
The below-normal rainfall forecasts are related to forecast warmer-than-average conditions in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region, its influences upon the IOD, and potential La Niña development. Contributing factors can be seen in Figure 1 (right-top), which shows an OND 2025 sea surface temperature (SST) forecast using NMME and ECMWF model forecasts from August. Very warm conditions are forecast in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region. This is the main driver of the negative IOD forecast, as SST in the western IOD region are forecast to be mainly average. Observations will need to be monitored, as negative SST conditions in the western Indian Ocean could lead to more severe rainfall impacts. Weak La Niña conditions may occur during OND 2025 (a 58 percent chance, according to the IRI/CPC August ENSO outlook). Historically, co-occurring negative IOD and La Niña conditions raise the chances of below-average rainfall (Figure 1 right-bottom). If the forecast stronger-than-average west-to-east SST gradients across the Pacific Ocean during OND 2025 occur, La Niña-like conditions are possible even if eastern Pacific (Nino3.4 region) SST anomalies are near average.
Elevated chances of a drier and hotter-than-average OND rainfall season in eastern and northern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and southeastern Ethiopia are concerning. In these mainly rangeland and marginal agricultural areas, the short duration OND rainy season supports the growth of pasture and recharge of water resources. Delayed or inconsistent rains create additional challenges for rainfed cropping areas. Below-average NDVI observations in July and August 2025 indicate that natural vegetation has dried out earlier than normal. If poor pasture growing conditions occur in coming months, it could mean a long period before relief during the next rainy season, after March 2026.
Figure 1. Precipitation, 2m temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts for October-December 2025 and SST anomalies during below-normal rainfall seasons. Left and middle-left: Seasonal forecast for October-to-December (OND) 2025 precipitation (left) and temperature (middle-left) from the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 71). Right-top: Forecast OND 2025 SST standardized anomalies, from the multi-model ensemble average of NMME and ECMWF seasonal forecasts (August initial conditions) and a 1991-2020 baseline. From UCSB CHC. Right-bottom: Composite mean of observed OND SST standardized anomalies during historical seasons with below-normal OND rainfall in eastern East Africa (green shape). The boxes outline Indian Ocean Dipole and the west-east Pacific Ocean SST gradient zones, which influence heat energy in the tropical atmosphere and rainfall variability in eastern East Africa during the OND season (CHC blog - July 2024).
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, central and southern Benin, Nigeria, and the southern half of Cameroon, while crops continue to develop in Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, northern Benin, the northern half of Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, planting and development of second season cereals are underway in Côte d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, Nigeria, and northern Cameroon. Along the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in Burkina Faso, while planting and development continue in Senegal, The Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, and Chad.
Throughout West Africa, agro-climatic conditions remain mostly favourable for ongoing crop development, and weather outcomes have been generally conducive for crop growth this season, despite generally drier than normal outcomes along the Gulf of Guinea and parts of the western Sahel and wetter than normal outcomes along the eastern Sahel over the past month. In August, localized areas of north and central Senegal, southern Mauritania, and west, south, and central Mali experienced moderate to severe rainfall deficits and prolonged dry spells (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). Conversely, recent moderate to heavy rains in late August resulted in flooding across western Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Gambia, southwestern Mauritania, Bauchi, Plateau, and Niger states and along the Benue River in eastern Nigeria, northern Cameroon, and along the Logone and Chari Rivers in Chad (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). Despite the rainfall deficit and flooding impacts, agro-climatic conditions remain favourable at the regional and national levels.
Additionally, concern remains in areas impacted by persistent conflict, including in central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northeastern Nigeria, the Lac region in Chad, the Far North and southwestern regions in Cameroon, and the Central African Republic, and socio-economic issues relating to inter-communal violence continue in northwestern Nigeria. Regarding desert locust outbreaks, adult groups have started to appear in Mauritania, with many isolated and scattered adults and some breeding observed. Isolated adults were also found in Niger and Chad. Forecasts suggest that adult groups will migrate from the central Sahara towards Chad, Niger, Mali, and Mauritania. Summer breeding will increase in Chad, Niger, Mali, and Mauritania, requiring control efforts.
In Ghana, a timely onset and adequate rainfall amounts for the March to July rainy season supported crop development, though dry spells in July impacted some localized areas, including in Brong Ahafo and Ashanti regions located in the south and parts of Upper West Region and Northern Region located in the north. Below-average precipitation received in August is expected to continue through September across most regions (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). In Sierra Leone, a timely onset of seasonal rains in mid-April was followed by low rainfall amounts from mid-May through July, which negatively impacted planting and crop establishment. However, yield prospects remain generally favourable, and forecast above-average rains through early September are expected to support some crop recovery (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). This year, overall production is expected to increase as a result of government support under the 2024‑2028 Feed Salone programme, which includes increased access to mechanization and quality inputs.
In Mali, heavy rainfall from late July has resulted in flooding and crop damage in localized areas but has been generally favourable for ongoing agricultural activities. Forecast heavy rains and rising water levels of the Senegal and Niger rivers increase the risk of further flooding. Cereal production is expected to be near normal, with localized declines anticipated in conflict-affected areas. Insecurity remains high as armed group violence continues to cause deaths, displacement, and economic disruption, while ongoing refugee arrivals add pressure to already limited local resources. In Burkina Faso, an irregular start to planting was followed by consistent rainfall since mid-July that has supported crop development. Forecast above-average rainfall through early September could support normal development, although there is a risk of field flooding. Insecurity continues to hinder agricultural and pastoral activities, though government support has increased in recent seasons through measures such as free ploughing, land development, and input provision. In Niger, heavy rainfall impacted 2,051 hectares of crops as of late August, and forecast average to above-average cumulative amounts indicate a high risk of flooding in the south and southwestern areas. The rains have generally been conducive for millet and sorghum development. However, conflict continues to spread into new areas such as Dosso, driving higher mortality and ongoing displacement. In Chad, most areas have experienced average to above-average rainfall, with some localized deficits, and seasonal forecasts indicate good rains through early September (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). However, insecurity and displacement continue to disrupt livelihoods, limit access to assistance, and drive food consumption deficits, and farmer–herder conflicts and land disputes are expected to persist.
Regional Outlook: Favorable conditions in western and northern West Africa to continue in September
Between July 26th and August 25th, conditions were drier than average in many western and southern areas of West Africa (Figure 1-left). Moderate to severe deficits were observed across Ghana, Togo, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, southern Mali, western Mauritania, southern Nigeria and southern Cameroon where rainfall totals were 30 to 75 percent of average.
In contrast, average to above-average rains were observed in many central and northern areas. In eastern Mali, central-eastern Niger, central Chad and northern Nigeria, rainfall was 110 to 200 percent of average with reports of heavy rains and localized flooding. According to IFRC, floods between July and August across several Nigerian states killed at least 12 people, displaced tens of thousands of people and destroyed more than 8,000 farmlands. In Jigawa State, northern Nigeria, floods destroyed about 995 rice farms, disrupting livelihoods. In Maneah, western Guinea, a landslide triggered by heavy rains killed at least 11 people.
Overall, seasonal cumulative rainfall from June 1st to August 25th has been favorable across many central and northern areas, supporting both pasture and crop development (Figure 1-middle-left). In Senegal, where poor July rains had raised concern, conditions improved in August, bringing seasonal totals to average to above-average levels. However, moderate to severe deficits continue across southern Mali.
Looking ahead, forecasts point to continued favorable conditions in western and northern areas. CHIRPS-GEFS (Figure 1-middle-right), ECMWF, and SubX forecasts from August 27 indicate above-average rainfall across Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and northern Nigeria. Longer-range forecasts from WMO, C3S, and NMME multimodel ensembles indicate average to above-average rains in these regions through September. In line with these forecasts, the NASA soil moisture probabilistic forecast shows high chances of normal to above-normal root zone soil moisture in September across central and northern areas (Figure 1-right). The favorable rains will be crucial for sustaining crops and water resources ahead of the dry season in October, although close monitoring is necessary in low-lying riverine and flood-prone areas.
Figure 1. Recent precipitation anomaly, season precipitation anomaly, a 15-day precipitation forecast anomaly, and seasonal soil moisture forecast.
Left and middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the percent of average precipitation for July 26th to August 25th, 2025. The middle-left panel shows the percent of average precipitation for June 1st to August 25th, 2025. Both panels use preliminary data for August. Middle-right: A 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast anomaly from August 28th, 2025. Right: A root zone soil moisture anomaly forecast for September 2025 from NASA’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) Forecast model, based on August conditions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Middle East & North Africa
Across the Middle East and North Africa, wheat harvesting finalized in July, and planting for the 2025/26 season will commence in October. In Egypt, summer-planted maize and rice crops are mostly in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and planting of secondary Nili season (Nile flood) rice crops continues. Overall conditions remain favourable, with irrigation supporting stable growth. In Lebanon, 2025 cereal production is estimated to be 90,000 tonnes and 50 percent below average due to conflict disruptions, including household displacement and limited land access during the planting season, particularly in the south, which significantly reduced the planted area. Additionally, dry and hot weather in combination with high input costs negatively affected crop yields. Cumulative rains from December 2024 through February 2025 were less than half of normal in the key producing Bekaa and Baalbek‑Hermel governments located in the east. In Syria, 2025 production is estimated to be 1.2 million tonnes and 60 percent below average due to a combination of severe drought, high temperatures, and ongoing conflict. Cumulative November 2024 to March 2025 rains were less than half of average and the lowest recorded in the last ten years. Conflict disruptions between November and December 2024 negatively impacted field access during the planting period, and high production costs contributed to a reduced planted area. In Iraq, there was a ban on rice cultivation this year in an effort to conserve water for other uses. Similar bans have occurred in previous years with limited water supply, including in 2018, 2022, and 2023. In Iran, the rice harvest is underway and is expected to finalize in September. Overall production is expected to be average but less than the previous year’s bumper crop due to comparatively drier weather outcomes this year. Additionally, the government recently lifted the four-month rice import ban to stabilize domestic supply and prices, which has allowed additional volumes to enter the market. Land preparation for the 2025/26 wheat season is underway, and planting will begin in September.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across Southern Africa, main season cereals are now out of season, and planting for the 2025/26 season will mostly begin in October. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of second season maize finalized in the east while planting and development of mains season cereals continue across other areas. Conditions are mixed due to erratic rains and increased instability in the west as well as a recent uptick in conflict in the east. The west has experienced erratic rainfall since July, with much of Mai-Ndombe, Kwilu, and Kasai experiencing the driest July 21 through August 20 rainfall on record, and streamflow estimates are also below average. However, vegetation conditions remain mostly average, except in northern Mai-Ndombe and southern Kwango. Additionally, increased instability in some western areas has resulted in displacement. In the east, conflict in North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri has resulted in displacements in major agricultural areas.
Wheat crops continue to develop across Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho, and growing conditions remain favourable. In Zambia, reduced water availability for irrigation in combination with a delayed summer harvest resulted in a 45 percent reduction in planted area. This is expected to lead to a wheat production decline; however, overall yields remain favourable. In Zimbabwe, an increase in planted area is expected to result in above-average wheat production. In South Africa, conditions remain favourable for wheat development, with wet conditions resulting in sufficient water supply and soil moisture. Over the summer rainfall region, above-normal rains provided ample irrigation water supply, and over the winter rainfall region, normal to above-normal rains from June to August supported production prospects. However, in the Western Cape, current dry conditions may have a negative impact on crops if extended into late September.
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, winter wheat harvesting is now complete in all regions, including in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. End of season conditions are generally favourable following conducive weather outcomes this season, except along the northern rainfed wheat belt and central areas of Afghanistan where dry and hot conditions reduced yields of rainfed crops, and in Uzbekistan where drier than normal rainfall outcomes during winter and spring degraded yield prospects. Spring wheat harvesting is underway in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan while crops continue to develop in Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia, and dry conditions continue to negatively impact crop development in most areas, except in northern Kazakhstan.
In Uzbekistan, wheat yields are expected to be 4.64 tons per hectare, representing a 10 percent decrease compared to the previous year, attributed mainly to drought conditions during the winter planting period that continued into spring, resulting in low soil moisture and precipitation deficits in the wheat belt. In Kazakhstan, early August conditions were favourable for grain filling and ripening of spring wheat, which provides 95 percent of annual wheat production and is mostly grown in the northern regions, providing favourable conditions for the start of harvest. Conditions are also favourable for the spring wheat harvest, which is just beginning, except in the minor producing south where dry concerns persist. In Afghanistan, wheat harvesting is now complete across all regions, and yields at the national level are expected to be near average despite drought impacts this season. Low rainfall amounts from October 2024 to April 2025 and high temperatures severely affected sowings and yields in minor producing rainfed areas, particularly along the rainfed belt in the north and northeast and some central areas. However, farmers in major producing irrigated areas were able to supplement water needs with groundwater extraction. Wheat harvesting continues in some Central Highlands and higher elevations of northeastern provinces, including Badakhshan, and will continue through late September into early October. Prolonged drought and lower wheat production have reduced fodder availability and worsened pasture conditions, particularly in the north, west, and central highland regions. The conditions are driving early livestock sales as pastoralists face high feed costs and difficulty sustaining their animals. Some farmers are gradually shifting away from wheat production to more profitable but highly water-intensive cash crops, such as fruits and orchards. Second season maize and rice crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage with worsening dry conditions, particularly in the east, north, and southern areas of the country. Significantly below-average rainfall received during the wet season is negatively impacting crop development across all areas due to insufficient irrigation water, and overall production is expected to be below average. Farmers are using groundwater as a substitute, but it is limited and insufficient to irrigate farmland in the east and northern regions and generally not as effective as surface water. In the east, maize cultivation in downstream areas has been particularly affected, with some locations reporting crop wilting due to the severe water shortages. Furthermore, on August 31, a 6 magnitude earthquake struck southeastern areas of the country bordering Pakistan, causing severe damage in Kunar, Nangarhar, and Laghman provinces. In Pakistan, harvesting of the mostly irrigated 2025 Rabi wheat crop finalized in June with an estimated production of 29 million tonnes, which is 5 percent above average. The increase is attributed to an increase in planted area, supported by government incentives such as input subsidies, distribution of high-yielding seeds, and loan support. Additionally, yields were above average in irrigated areas, except in parts of the north due to an irrigation water shortage. Conversely, yields were below average in rainfed areas, which account for 20 percent of the planted area, due to dry conditions. Kharif (summer) season rice and main season maize crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under mixed conditions due to recent monsoon flooding in the major producing Punjab province and other areas. Heavy monsoon rains, flash floods, and large water releases from dams have impacted many areas since late June, particularly in north and eastern districts of Punjab and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and Balochistan provinces. In the last week of August, torrential rains worsened flood impacts across Punjab, with Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers having simultaneously high to exceptionally high water levels and officials noting this as the worst flooding in four decades. Several reservoirs in Pakistan and India are reporting near full capacity, increasing the risk of further flooding in downstream areas of southern Punjab and Sindh from the additional release of dams, compounded by more rains expected through early September. An estimated 2,172,533 hectares have been flooded overall, including 1,383,279 hectares of cropland. In Punjab, an estimated 380,000 hectares have been flooded. Damage to cash crops, particularly rice, will further strain household income and could impact international rice prices as Pakistan is a significant exporter. The primary impact on the domestic food supply will likely be a reduction for the upcoming 2025/26 Rabi wheat planting season, which commences in late September and early October. Farmers likely lost agricultural supplies and seeds and will be in need of support to complete Rabi wheat planting. In Mongolia, many areas experienced summer droughts, particularly in Selenge province located in the north-centre and in northwestern parts of the country. However, the impact is not expected to be severe as wheat crops are irrigated.
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is underway, and yields are expected to be generally favourable due to sufficient water and sunlight received during the growing period, except in Brunei where planting delays are expected to reduce yields. In Malaysia, planting of wet-season rice is just beginning with good rainfall amounts received. In northern Southeast Asia, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion with suitable weather conditions and adequate rainfall received. The total planted area is expected to decrease slightly compared to the previous year, and most planted crops are now in the tillering to maturing stage. Growing conditions are generally favourable with near-average yields expected, and harvesting of earlier planted crops is underway. Additionally, while typhoons and resultant flooding have been reported, the extent of the damage is minor. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, growing conditions remain mostly favourable, except in southeastern Nepal experiencing an unexpected drought and groundwater depletion.
In Indonesia, August is the fifth month of dry-season rice planting, and the total planted area is 4.3 million hectares and slightly higher than the last dry season. Growing conditions are generally favourable with good rains received in late July to early August. August is also the second month of dry-season rice harvesting, with a harvested area of 2.0 million hectares and a favourable yield due to sufficient water and sunlight received during the growing period. Some areas are still experiencing high rainfall amounts while the rains are declining in others, and no significant damage has been reported. In Malaysia, harvesting of dry-season rice is underway, and about 53 percent of the cultivated areas have been harvested. Good weather conditions and normal rainfall amounts have supported harvesting activities, and paddy production is expected to be similar to the previous season. Additionally, planting of wet-season rice began in August under favourable conditions with adequate rainfall amounts. In Brunei, harvesting of dry-season rice is now underway, and 15 percent of the planted area has been harvested. The remaining areas are mostly in the ripening stage. While the current low precipitation and high temperatures during the harvesting period are likely to benefit crops, delayed planting at the beginning of the season due to repairs to the irrigation system is expected to limit the final yield.
In the Philippines, wet-season rice planted in April and May is now in the maturing to harvesting stage. Growing conditions are generally favourable in most provinces. Dry weather conditions in April were followed by average to above-average rains in May and June, which supported planting and early crop development. However, three tropical cyclones in July damaged an estimated 95.1 thousand hectares of rice paddies in localized areas, resulting in a volume loss of 60.9 thousand metric tons. Moderate to high precipitation was also received in August. In Thailand, the accumulated planted area for wet-season rice, which accounts for 80 percent of annual rice output and is mostly rainfed, reached 88 percent of the expected 9.91 million hectares planted. An on-time start to the May to October monsoon season was followed by average to above-average rains through early August, supporting planting and crop establishment. Crops are in the tillering stage, and growing conditions remain favourable in most areas with adequate precipitation and sufficient sunlight. Both yields and production amounts are expected to increase. However, heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in July impacted some north, upper northeast, and central regions. The persistent rains combined with the passage of Tropical Storm Wipha resulted in flooding and affected around 68 thousand hectares of crops. Damage assessments are currently underway. In northern Viet Nam, wet-season (summer-autumn) rice is in the young panicle forming stage, and the main wet-season (seasonal) rice is in the seeding stage. Growing conditions are favourable, supported by good weather conditions and an adequate supply of irrigation water. However, in mid-July, storms, strong winds, and landslides impacted Tuyên Quang province in the northeast. Heavy rainfall continued through early August, triggering flash floods and landslides across Dien Bien, Son La, and Thanh Hoa provinces in the north. In the south, wet-season (summer-autumn) rice is in the harvesting stage, and the harvested area reached 0.53 million hectares out of 1.77 million hectares planted. Additionally, the other wet-season (autumn-winter and seasonal) rice is in the growing stage under favourable conditions. In lowland areas of Laos, wet-season rice is nearing the end of the planting stage. Planting progress reached 742 thousand hectares, representing 97 percent of the national production plan. Weather conditions and irrigation water supply are adequate for paddy crops in the early development stage. However, in late July, remnants of Tropical Storm Wipha brought heavy rains, widespread flooding, and landslides across north and central provinces of the country, damaging 18.7 thousand hectares of crops in localized areas. In upland areas, planted area of wet-season rice reached 75 thousand hectares, representing 85 percent of the national plan. Crops are in the young panicle forming stage under favourable conditions. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice reached its peak in August, totalling 4.3 million hectares and 70.1 percent of the national plan of 6.04 million hectares. Crops are mostly planted in the delta region, and planting progress is slightly faster than last year due to favourable weather outcomes. Most planted crops are now in the tillering to panicle forming stages, and overall growing conditions are favourable. Monsoon floods are impacting several areas, but impacts to wet-season rice remain limited. In Cambodia, planting progress of wet-season rice, which accounts for about 70 percent of annual rice output, is faster than a typical year, with a current planted area of 2.78 million hectares representing 93 percent of the cultivation plan. Harvesting of earlier planted crops is underway and has reached 11 percent of the cultivated area. Current yield is estimated at 3.9 tons per hectare, and the final yield is expected to be slightly higher than last year due to sufficient sunlight and better irrigation supply. The May to October monsoon season began on time with average to above-average rainfall amounts received through early August across the main producing south and central provinces. Conversely, low precipitation amounts in July and August negatively affected crops in some localized northwestern areas, including parts of Battambang, Oddar Meanchey, and Siem Reap provinces.
In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season maize (10 percent of annual maize output) and Yala season rice (35 to 40 percent of annual rice output) is just beginning under favourable conditions and is expected to finalize in October. In Nepal, harvesting of main season maize is just beginning while rice is in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and overall growing conditions remain mostly favourable. However, despite prior forecasts of above-average rainfall as well as the arrival of the monsoon on May 29, Madhesh Province located in the southeast is experiencing an unexpected drought. The groundwater table has been depleted, creating a shortage of irrigation water. The water shortage has resulted in dry seedbeds and withering plants, and farmers are unable to transplant paddy saplings. In Bangladesh, harvesting of Aus season rice (10 percent of annual rice output) finalized in August with near-average yields expected. Planting of both Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice output) and main season sorghum continues under favourable conditions. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize harvesting is just beginning while rice crops continue to develop, and overall conditions remain favourable with generally good weather outcomes this season. Drier than average conditions received between July 10 and August 10, particularly in the south, were followed by a shift to abundant rains in the second dekad of August. Biomass of maize and rice is above average, suggesting a good harvest.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Primera season maize conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, harvesting of Primera season crops is beginning in some areas but is largely delayed as late and irregularly distributed rains resulted in postponed planting activities. There is concern for potential yield declines across Guatemala, Honduras, and western Nicaragua due to late and erratic rains, including prolonged dry periods and instances of short-lived intense rains, as well as hot temperatures that have led to the proliferation of pests and diseases. Small and medium producers are generally expected to see a reduction in yields. Additionally, large-scale farmers experienced an increase in the cost of production due to resowing efforts and the increased use of pesticides, which may lead to an increase in the future price of basic grains. Conversely, better rainfall outcomes in El Salvador and eastern Nicaragua are expected to result in near-average yields.
Most areas of Central America have received significantly below-average rainfall and high temperatures over the last month, with seasonal rainfall deficits increasing in Guatemala and the Pacific coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Only El Salvador received improved rains compared to the previous month, with above-average amounts. The deficit has negatively impacted crops in areas already experiencing stress, particularly for subsistence farmers, resulting in stagnation of crop growth and wilting in areas of the Dry Corridor. While overall rainfall outcomes have been erratic, with some areas receiving abundant rains over a short period of time in June, the distribution has not been adequate for crop needs. High temperatures have exacerbated the deficits, and the conditions have resulted in an increase in both pests and diseases, as well as production costs. Below-average rains are expected to continue through early September, which could further impact growing areas for the Primera season, particularly in the Dry Corridor, and delay planting for the Segunda season. Planting for Segunda/Postrera season maize and bean crops typically begins in September but may be delayed depending on harvesting progress for the Primera season. Rains are forecast to be average for September, but distribution will be important for cropping outcomes. Additionally, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above average, with five to nine hurricanes and increased activity in the coming weeks (See Regional Outlook Pg. 18).
In El Salvador, planting of Primera season maize (80 percent of annual maize output) was delayed by about a month due to an erratic and dry start to the seasonal rains in May. However, rainfall improvements in June benefitted soil moisture levels and provided favourable conditions for germination and early crop development. In coastal areas, crops were planted on time in May, and torrential rains and localized flooding in June resulted in some maize losses, which required replanting. Overall planted area for Primera season maize crops is expected to be slightly above average, largely due to an increase in white maize prices and the absence of tariffs on main agricultural inputs. Good rainfall distribution and near-average rains received in August are benefiting crop development, except in localized parts of the western departments, including in Santa Ana and Sonsonate. In Guatemala, erratic rains and high temperatures between March and May negatively affected planting and early development, which necessitated some replanting and curbed yield prospects. The sown area is estimated to be near average but below 2024 due to comparatively lower prices at planting time. Improved rains in late June benefitted soil moisture levels but were followed by a return to well below average amounts during July and August with high temperatures. Crops are showing stress due to a lack of rainfall, particularly in Zacapa located in the central-east and Quetzaltenango located in the central-west where 30 percent of croplands are showing poor vegetation conditions. Harvesting is expected to begin in September, with likely delays in some main producing central and northern areas. Planting for Postrera season maize crops, which account for 40 percent of annual maize production, is expected to begin in September. Rainfall for the upcoming September to November season is expected to be average to above-average, with likely improvements to soil moisture levels. However, a likely active 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could result in crop damage (See Regional Outlook Pg. 18). In Honduras, dry and hot conditions received during August have exacerbated crop stress, particularly in Santa Barbara and Cortes located in the northwest, where up to 25 percent of croplands are showing poor vegetation conditions. Additionally, planting of second season rice is just beginning under favourable conditions. In Nicaragua, poor rains during July and August, intermixed with instances of short-lived heavy rains, as well as high temperatures are impacting crop development in the west, particularly in León, Granada, Masaya, and Boaco. However, the impact of the dry conditions is less severe due to a good irrigation system provided by the government. Conversely, in the east, dry conditions at the start of the season were followed by a shift to above-average rainfall amounts from mid-July, and growing conditions remain favourable.
In Haiti, harvesting of Printemps season cereals finalized in August under favourable conditions with normal to above-normal rains received between March and June. However, production is expected to be below average due to reduced planted area resulting from protracted insecurity and limited fertilizer and seed access. Harvesting of main season rice is underway while planting of Été season maize and beans continues, and overall growing conditions remain favourable despite mixed precipitation outcomes over the past month. Southern regions received above-average rainfall in August, while northern regions received above-average amounts, and central areas received average amounts. Despite the uneven distribution, vegetation conditions are generally favourable in most crop production areas, except in localized eastern areas, particularly between the Ouest and Sud-Est departments, as well as localized parts of Grand'Anse and Haut Arbonite. While crop development is currently progressing adequately in these areas, further degradation of vegetation conditions could impact final yields. Forecast average rainfall in September could help alleviate deficits received in August and support crop development, but high temperatures could negatively impact irrigation availability. Additionally, there are elevated chances of below-normal rainfall and especially hot conditions through November that could impact normal maize and bean crop development (See Regional Outlook Pg. 18). In Cuba, planting and development of main season rice and maize continue under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Poor rainfall conditions during recent weeks in Central America to continue into early September
Below-average rainfall continued during recent weeks, following several months of overall poor rainfall performance during the Primera season. Erratic rains in April and May were followed by above-average rainfall in June, and a return to below-average conditions in July through August. Seasonal rainfall totals for April 1st to August 25th, 2025, are 75 to less-than 50 percent of average across Guatemala, western and southern Honduras, northwestern Nicaragua, and southern Haiti, based on preliminary August data. Rainfall totals are extremely low in portions of central-southern, central-eastern, and northern Guatemala, where the amounts are among the lowest on the CHIRPS record, based on preliminary data.
The widespread below-average rainfall during August, combined with the forecast persistence of drier-than-average conditions until early September (Figure 1 top-right), raise the chances of negative impacts to Segunda/Postera season planting activities and initial development of early-planted crops. August 1st to 25th rainfall deficits were especially large (100-200 mm below average) in the Pacific coast, central, and central-eastern areas of Guatemala and in eastern Nicaragua. During late August to early September, forecast below-average rainfall will lead to an expansion of areas with large rainfall deficits, especially in Guatemala. Rainfall conditions may improve after this extended dry period. Pacific coast regions will likely receive above-average rainfall during mid-to-late September, according to the ECMWF subseasonal forecast from August 27th. In other areas, mid-late September rainfall conditions are uncertain due to lack of a forecast signal.
Mainly average September to November 2025 rainfall is anticipated for Central America and Haiti. There is a tilt towards above-average rainfall in parts of Central America, particularly in western and southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and southern areas, according to the WMO forecast from August (Figure 1 bottom-left) and the August NMME forecast in Guatemala. The WMO indicates elevated chances of below-average rainfall in Haiti, where mixed rainfall conditions were observed in recent weeks. There is low confidence in that outlook because NMME and C3S forecasts do not agree. Continued monitoring of updated forecasts and observations will be essential as the season progresses.
Maximum temperatures during August were above average in Guatemala, El Salvador, eastern and western Honduras, and other locations. During the next several months, temperatures will likely be above normal across most of Central America and the Caribbean (Figure 1 bottom-right).specially hot conditions for this time of year are forecast in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba. NMME and C3S models predict higher-than 70 percent chances that September to November 2025 temperatures will be in the upper 20th percentile. Associated with high temperatures will be faster evaporation of soil moisture, which could impact non-irrigated crops, and increased prevalence of pests and crop disease.
Associated with the very warm sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean regions and an active West African monsoon season, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season remains likely to have an above-normal level of activity (a 50 percent chance, according to NOAA).
Figure 1. Seasonal precipitation anomaly and historical rank for April to August 2025, an outlook for August to early-September precipitation anomaly, and 3-month probabilistic forecast for precipitation and 2m temperature terciles.
Top row: CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average (1981-2024), for respective accumulation periods. The top-left panel shows the percent of average precipitation for April 1st to August 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for August. The top-middle panel shows areas where the total ranks within the wettest or driest on the CHIRPS record. Top-right: An outlook for August 1st to September 10th precipitation anomalies, using preliminary CHIRPS and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast from August 26th, 2025. Bottom: WMO multi-model ensemble probability forecast of September to November 2025 precipitation and 2m temperature terciles, based on August initial conditions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published September 4th, 2025.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.