Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 119: Published September 3rd 2026
Conditions as of August 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, prolonged rainfall deficits since around April and high temperatures are expected to reduce yields in many areas, including main producing regions in the Ethiopian highlands and western Kenya.
In West Africa, agro-climatic conditions remain mostly favourable for ongoing cropping activities despite recent rainfall deficits along parts of the Sahel, except in Chad.
In the Middle East & North Africa, rice prospects remain favourable in Egypt, Iraq, and Iran, and land preparation is beginning for the upcoming 2026/27 wheat season.
In Southern Africa, winter wheat prospects have degraded in the main producing region of South Africa due to recent dry impacts. Elsewhere, wheat prospects remain favourable.
In Central & South Asia, the 2025/26 wheat season is wrapping up with generally favourable yield prospects.
In Southeast Asia, conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice and maize in the south, while drought is negatively impacting wet-season crops in Thailand and Cambodia, and heavy rains are negatively impacting parts of the Philippines.
In Central America & the Caribbean, harvesting of Primera season crops is nearing completion, and maize conditions have been downgraded to poor in Honduras and Nicaragua due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures since the start of the season.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion in the south, while crops continue to develop in the north. Prolonged rainfall deficits since the start of the season and high temperatures are expected to negatively impact yields in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia (Meher season), Somalia, Kenya, and northeastern Uganda. Conversely, the October to December rainfall season is expected to be above average (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9).
WEST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is underway along the south while planting and development continue along the Sahel. Overall cropping prospects remain mostly favourable in non-conflict affected areas, except in Chad. However, emerging localized rainfall deficits in parts of the Sahel could persist and intensify.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Land preparation for the 2026/27 wheat season is underway, and planting will mostly commence in October. Rice prospects remain favourable in Egypt, Iraq, and Iran.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Land preparation for the 2026/27 main season is underway, and planting will mostly commence in October. Below-normal rainfall is expected for the start of the season from October 2026 to January 2027. El Niño events typically result in poor maize yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa (See Climate Influences Pg. 4 and Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 13). Wheat continues to develop under mixed conditions due to developing dry impacts in the main producing region of South Africa.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Winter wheat harvesting finalized in August while spring wheat harvesting is just beginning, and overall prospects remain favourable following a generally stable growing season. In Pakistan, emerging heat and moisture stress conditions could impact Kharif and main season cereals in some areas.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In the south, conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice and maize harvesting. In the north, conditions are mixed for wet-season rice and maize development as drought may negatively impact outputs in Thailand and Cambodia, while recent heavy rains impacted crops in parts of the Philippines and localized areas of Myanmar.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Harvesting of Primera season cereals is nearing completion, and extended dry spells and high temperatures this season are expected to negatively impact yields for both large and small-scale farmers, particularly for maize crops in Honduras and Nicaragua. The conditions are also likely to affect the start of the Segunda/Postrera season in September.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over the southwest US, northwest Mexico, central and southeast Brazil, northeastern Bolivia, Paraguay, central United Kingdom, northern Germany, northern Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, northwestern Ukraine, the western Russian Federation, Côte d'Ivoire, central Angola, southern Zambia, northwestern Zimbabwe, South Africa, Lesotho, northeastern Afghanistan, southwestern China, eastern Myanmar, northern and northeastern Thailand, northwestern Laos, and the Republic of Korea.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over western Canada, the mid-Atlantic US, southern Mexico, El Salvador, Honduras, western Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, western Colombia, northern Ecuador, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and southern Brazil, Uruguay, eastern Argentina, Portugal, Spain, southern France, southern Italy, Romania, southern Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, Montenegro, northern Greece, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the southern Russian Federation, northwestern Iran, northern Algeria, northeastern Morocco, southern Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Benin, southern Niger, northern Nigeria, central and southern Chad, central and southern Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, central and western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern and southern Tanzania, the western Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Mozambique, southern Yemen, eastern Kazakhstan, southern and northern India, Sri Lanka, northwestern and eastern China, southern Thailand, the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, eastern Australia, and northern New Zealand.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 September 2026, issued on 28 August 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: El Niño Present and forecast to develop into a very strong event by September 2026 to January 2027
El Niño conditions are present. This will most likely be a very strong event (~ 90% chance from September 2026 to January 2027, according to the August 2026 NOAA ENSO outlook), ranking as one of the strongest since 1950. El Niño conditions are forecast through May 2027 (82% chance).
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in parts of Asia (in Central Asia, southern China, and eastern China), southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur across Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, Southern Africa, the Sahel region, parts of northern and western East Africa, India, Northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast during September to December 2026, with a strong event possible. A positive IOD tends to enhance the drying influence of El Niño in Australia and the Maritime Continent and substantially increase the chances of a wet and intense East Africa short rains season.
During late August through early September 2026, abnormally hot temperatures are forecast in active crop development areas of the central and southeastern United States, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, northeastern Paraguay, southern Europe, West Africa, the Sahel region, and East Africa, Yemen, southern and northern India, Pakistan, central Asia, northwestern and central China, southern Vietnam, and the southern Philippines (Figure 1).
Figure 1: CHC AgriHeat Forecast for August 27 to September 10, 2026. Forecast 15-day average maximum temperatures are shown where these will be abnormally hot (Tmax > 80th percentile and > 30 °C) and in active crop growing areas. Areas with forecasted below-average rainfall for this period are also identified. Based on the 15-day CHIRTS-GEFS and CHIRPS-GEFS forecasts from August 27, 2026. From UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of first season cereals finalized in bimodal regions of southern South Sudan, while main season cereals are mostly in the vegetative to reproductive stage across Sudan, unimodal regions of South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia (Meher season), and Yemen. Conditions have been downgraded to poor across Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia due to delayed and generally inadequate rainfall outcomes for the June to September season as well as ongoing conflict in Sudan and hotter than normal conditions in South Sudan. Additionally, dry concerns remain across Yemen and Eritrea, and antecedent dry and hot conditions are also impacting the start of second season planting in bimodal regions of southern South Sudan.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of Season B rice finalized in Burundi, while harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in bimodal regions in Uganda, bimodal regions in the eastern half of Kenya, Somalia (Gu season), and bimodal regions of north and northeastern United Republic of Tanzania. Additionally, harvesting of main season cereals is just beginning in unimodal regions of northern Uganda and unimodal regions in the western half of Kenya. Failure outcomes are expected in southern Somalia due to persistent dry and hot seasonal conditions. Additionally, persistent deficits since around April and high temperatures are expected to result in poor yield outcomes elsewhere in Somalia as well as in Karamoja region in northeastern Uganda and throughout Kenya. Conversely, conditions in bimodal regions of Uganda have been upgraded to favourable, and favourable outcomes are also expected in Burundi and the United Republic of Tanzania where precipitation was adequate for crop development. Furthermore, planting of second season maize is just beginning in bimodal regions of Uganda, and planting of main season rice is just beginning in central and western Kenya under favourable conditions.
In western East Africa, El Niño is associated with below-average rainfall during the June to September season. Parts of central and northern Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Karamoja in Uganda, and western and northwestern Kenya experienced a poor start to the seasonal rains (See Climate Influences Pg. 4 and Regional Alert Pg. 8). Additionally, in eastern areas, a forecast strong El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to result in above-average precipitation from October, particularly over southern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and north-eastern Kenya, with an elevated risk of flooding (See Climate Influences Pg. 4 and Regional Outlook Pg. 9). The October to December season is a critical period for equatorial and southern areas, contributing up to 70 percent of total annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia and up to 40 percent in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, the United Republic of Tanzania, and Uganda. However, heavy rains would not automatically bring recovery, and it may take several months for areas to fully recover from recent deficits.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, planting of main season millet and sorghum crops was delayed across much of the east, including Al Jazeera, Sennar, and Blue Nile State, due to limited rainfall and moisture that resulted in a below-average planted area. Crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and conditions have been downgraded to poor due to below-average rainfall outcomes for the June to September season. While irrigation is typically used along the Nile, the area under production is limited this year, and production expectations are well below the previous year. Additionally, ongoing conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities throughout the country. In South Sudan, harvesting of first season cereals finalized in bimodal regions of Central and Western Equatoria located in the south of the country, while crops continue to develop across unimodal regions. Overall conditions have been downgraded to poor due to inadequate rainfall this season as well as high temperatures, particularly in the east. Over the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits have resulted in drought conditions across southern regions of the country. Conversely, inundation of the Sudd wetlands located in the central-north of the country persists. Furthermore, planting of second season maize and sorghum crops is just beginning in bimodal regions with concern due to antecedent dry conditions. As of July, new conflict was reported between the government and opposition forces across the Upper Nile and Jonglei states, which is likely to limit land access and reduce the planted area. In Eritrea, wheat crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage while sorghum planting continues, and delayed and below-average rains continue to impact cropping activities, particularly in the centre and west. In Ethiopia, Meher season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and conditions have been downgraded to poor due to rainfall delays and deficits for the June to September Kiremt season, including in the main producing highlands region. Over the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits have resulted in drought conditions across northern, eastern, and central regions of the country. Conversely, in the west, moderate to heavy rainfall received over the past month, combined with forecast continued rains, elevates the risk of flooding. According to recent extended outlook estimates, the July and early August 2026 precipitation deficits are developing similarly to 1987, 1997, and 2015. In official crop production statistics, 1997 production of Meher season wheat, sorghum, and maize was 15 to 25 percent, 20 to 30 percent, and 20 to 30 percent below trend, respectively. In 2015, crop production for all three crops was near normal. The current NDVI deficits for July exceed those of 2015, making near-normal national production levels unlikely. Additionally, in 2023, when there was a strong El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the Meher season ended under mostly poor conditions due to a combination of early season dryness, subsequent enhanced rains, and residual flooding from October (See CM4EW December 2023 report). The ongoing El Niño event is expected to bring drought during the remainder of the June to September Kiremt rainfall season, which accounts for more than 70 percent of national crop production. This will likely be followed by heavy rains and increased flooding risk between October and December. Historically, El Niño events have suppressed Kiremt rains in the centre, north, northeast, and east, while increasing the likelihood of heavy rains and flooding in southern and southeastern lowland areas later in the year (See Climate Influences Pg. 4, Regional Alert Pg. 8, and Regional Outlook Pg. 9). In Yemen, sorghum and spring wheat crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage. Rainfall has generally been below average through mid-August, constraining rainfed crop development, and the dry conditions are expected to continue through October (See Regional Alert Pg. 8).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, harvesting of Gu season maize and sorghum finalized in August under poor to failure outcomes due to antecedent dry conditions, followed by dry and hot conditions for the April to June 2026 Gu season. Conversely, heavy El Niño-induced rains are expected between October and December, increasing the risk of widespread flooding for the start of the Deyr season (See Climate Influences Pg. 4 and Regional Outlook Pg. 9). According to recent extended outlook estimates, with an intensifying El Niño and a likely strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole, flooding is likely to negatively affect maize and sorghum production. Sorghum harvested areas were more consistently affected than sorghum yields, with the strongest reductions of about 10 percent along the Juba and Shabelle. Both maize yields and production were over 30 percent below normal in areas along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. In 2023, the El Niño-induced October to December Deyr rainfall season was the second wettest on record. Agricultural activities in southern lowland areas were initially delayed by flooding but resumed in December as floodwaters receded, with harvests from recessional cropping activities taking place in February and March. Deyr season yields were expected to be below average due to extensive flooding, which reportedly affected over fifty percent of croplands. However, off-season crops and other crops planted after flood recession benefitted from abundant soil moisture, and production for those crops was expected to be above average. The rains were also beneficial for crop production in areas not affected by the flooding (See CM4EW February 2024 and CM4EW March 2024 reports). In Kenya, harvesting of long rains cereals finalized in the bimodal and minor producing eastern half of the country, while harvesting is just beginning in the unimodal and major producing western half of the country. Erratic rains and prolonged deficits since April as well as high temperatures are expected to result in poor yield outcomes across most areas, particularly in the major producing western half of the country. According to recent extended outlook estimates, as of early August, maize yields are forecast to be 15 to 20 percent below trend in major producing parts of the west, based on the GEOCIF crop yield forecast model. This equates to a national production deficit of nearly 10 percent below trend, though there are pockets of slightly better prospects along the marginal producing east and southeast. Furthermore, rice planting is just beginning in the centre and west under favourable conditions, as the crops are mostly river-fed and levels are adequate. The October to December short rains season is expected to be above average and generally well distributed (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). The short rains season is particularly important in the bimodal eastern and southeastern areas, where it contributes more than 40 percent of annual rainfall. In Uganda, harvesting of first season cereals is nearing completion in bimodal regions of the centre and south, while harvesting is just beginning in the north. Despite drier than normal conditions this season, bimodal regions have been upgraded to favourable. These areas typically receive high rainfall, so even reduced totals were adequate for crop development, though production may still be lower than usual. Conversely, in Karamoja region located in the northeast, poorly distributed and below-average rains from April to July resulted in 50-70 percent harvest losses. The government declared a drought in July, and the dry conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the season due to strengthening El Niño conditions (See Climate Influences Pg. 4 and Regional Alert Pg. 8), likely resulting in late and below-average harvests, particularly for sorghum, maize, beans, and groundnuts. In Burundi, harvesting of Season B rice crops is nearing completion with favourable yields expected. In bimodal regions of the north and northeast of the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of Masika season cereals finalized in August under favourable conditions, despite minor deficits in parts of the west.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Alert: June to September concerning hot and dry conditions expected to persist in western and northern East Africa
During recent weeks, from July 21st to August 20th, rainfall totals were below average in northern and western areas—in South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, northwestern Somalia, northwestern and Karamoja region in Uganda, and western Kenya (Figure 1-left). Large rainfall deficits of between 50 to 200mm were observed in many of these areas (Figure 1 middle-right). Localized areas of southeastern Sudan, northeastern South Sudan, and central and north-central Uganda received average to above-average rains.
Rainfall totals for June 1st to September 5th will likely be below average, based on an outlook using preliminary data for August and a forecast for August 21st to September 5th. Most in-season cropping and pastoralist areas will receive rainfall totals less than 30 to 60 percent of average (Figure 1 middle-left). In Ethiopia, areas in the northeast, north, central, and parts of the east have received erratic and poor Kiremt rains since June. The impacts of prolonged dryness are already being reported in pastoral areas of the Afar Region. Reports indicate drying water sources in Kori Woreda and widespread livestock losses, particularly among camels, goats, and sheep, placing increasing pressure on pastoral livelihoods. In the Karamoja region in Uganda, prolonged dry spells since late April have caused widespread crop and livestock losses, raising food insecurity and malnutrition. Erratic rains and prolonged dry spells in key production areas of western Kenya and the North Rift region are likely to reduce harvests and increase food prices in the country.
Forecasts of below-average rainfall during the next several months indicate limited opportunities for recovery across many of the affected areas (Figure 1-right). Above-normal temperatures are also forecast, which could exacerbate the impacts of ongoing rainfall deficits. Continued hot and dry conditions are likely to further increase crop and pasture stress, and reduce water availability for livestock. Close monitoring of rainfall performance, vegetation conditions, and impacts on crop and livestock production will be important as the season progresses.
Figure 1. Recent anomaly, seasonal rainfall outlook anomaly, and a forecast of precipitation.
Left, middle-left and middle-right panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare the July 21st to August 20th, 2026 (Left), June 1stJuly 21st to September 5th, 2026 (Middle-left) and July 21st to August 20th (Middle-right) precipitation totals to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS averages for the same accumulation period. These panels use CHIRPS3 Preliminary for August 1–20, 2026. A bias-adjusted NCEP GEFS forecast (CHIRPS3-GEFS) is used for the 15-day forecast from August 21st. Right: Multi-model ensemble forecast for the probability of below-normal, normal, and above-normal August to October 2026 rainfall, based on August initial conditions. Based on ECMWF SEAS5 and 6 NMME models, and a 1991-2020 baseline of model hindcasts. NMME data is from the IRI Data Library; ECMWF data is from Copernicus.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Regional Outlook: October to December 2026 GHACOF rainfall outlook and forecast strong El Niño and positive IOD raise flood risks and mixed agricultural impacts
Model forecasts from August predict strong El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions for October to December (OND 2026) (Figure 2-right). Like previous forecasts, the August outlook for these regional climate drivers is similar to the extreme OND 1997 season. More details are in the Crop Monitor for Early Warning July and August 2026 bulletins. At present, El Niño conditions are well developed and forecast to strengthen. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole has not yet developed, based on Australia Bureau of Meteorology weekly data from August 23rd. Forecast warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean will likely drive a positive IOD during OND, which is consistent with the August 24th SubC multimodel forecast showing abnormal warm temperatures in that region during late August to mid-September.
These conditions substantially raise the odds of above-normal rainfall in East Africa, with elevated chances of an extreme season with intense storms and persistent rainfall. According to the GHACOF 74 forecast for OND 2026, there are greater than 70 percent chances of above-normal rains in central and southern Somalia, southern and eastern Ethiopia, northern, central, eastern and southeastern Uganda, western, central and eastern Tanzania, and much of Kenya (Figure 2-left). Associated with forecast above-normal rains are likely beneficial crop and pastoral conditions as well as the potential for negative outcomes. Very wet conditions bring higher risks of extensive and localized flooding, loss of life, waterborne diseases, infrastructure damage, landslides, and crop losses from soil erosion, waterlogging, and excess moisture in mature and partially harvested crops.
Figure 2. October to December 2026: GHACOF74 rainfall outlook and forecast strong El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole.
Left: 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF74) June to September 2026 rainfall forecast. GHACOF 73 was held from 17 - 18 August 2026, organised by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the Greater Horn of Africa, the World Meteorological Organization, and other international partners.
Right: The current ENSO/Relative ONI (RONI) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) forecast for OND 2026, compared to historical observations (scatterplot), and historical rainfall tercile outcomes (filled colors) in eastern East Africa (EEA; 8.5N-4.5S, 38E-50E). The August NMME and ECMWF mean OND 2026 forecasts for RONI and IOD are shown with a range of values within a 95% confidence interval (large and small red triangles, respectively), post forecast bias-correction using historical 1991–2025 forecasts. The most relevant (to this forecast) historical years are identified, based on these intervals for RONI and IOD (black outlines).
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and Cameroon, while planting and development continue in Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, planting and development of second season cereals is underway in Côte d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, Nigeria, and northern Cameroon. Along the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in Burkina Faso while planting and development continue in Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, and Chad. Agro-climatic conditions remain generally favourable for ongoing cropping activities despite localized deficits in parts of the Sahel, including central Mali, western and eastern Niger, and central-western, northwestern, and northeastern Nigeria, leading to below-average vegetation conditions and reduced water availability for crops. Short-term forecasts of below-normal rainfall toward the end of August also suggest these localized deficits could persist and intensify in affected regions of the Sahel. In Chad, conditions have been downgraded to watch as most areas are now experiencing rainfall deficits. In bimodal areas along the Gulf of Guinea, average to above-average production is expected for the main season harvest following adequate rainfall outcomes this season. Additionally, ongoing conflict continues to adversely affect agricultural outcomes in central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, the Lac region in Chad, northeastern Nigeria, northern and southwestern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic, and socio-economic issues relating to inter-communal conflict continue to impact northwestern Nigeria.
In Burkina Faso, late and irregular rainfall at the beginning of the season prevented farmers from planting in desired areas, and longer dry spells forecast between August and October could negatively impact yields and production. In Niger, delayed, erratic, and below-average rainfall resulted in lower-than-normal seeding coverage with varying stages of crop development. However, regular rains received since the beginning of August have improved growing conditions. In Chad, a delayed start to the season with below-average rainfall occurred in several regions of the country. Most areas are now experiencing deficits with below-average vegetation and reduced water availability. Forecast low rainfall amounts through early September will likely worsen deficit areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 11). In the Central African Republic, planted areas are close to average in the main producing central and southern regions. While below-average rains received in the Vakaga region located in the north of the country could reduce yields, forecast above-average rainfall between August and October across most of the country is expected to support production prospects. However, insecurity and limited land access continue to constrain production outcomes, and a fuel shortage in July resulted in a sharp increase in fuel prices and compounded already high transportation costs.
Regional Outlook: 2026 Sahel rainfall deficits and heat outlook
In the Sahel, delayed and irregular rainfall has led to most areas receiving average to below-average seasonal rainfall accumulations from May 1st to August 25th, 2026 (Figure 1-left). Rainfall was 25 mm to 100+ mm below average in portions of western Mauritania, southeastern, central, and northeastern Mali, central Burkina Faso, western and eastern Niger, southwestern, northwestern, and northeastern Nigeria, and across much of Chad, based on June-July CHIRPS Final and August CHIRPS preliminary data. These amounted to rainfall totals less than half of typical amounts for drier zones, including eastern Mali, eastern Niger, and central-eastern Chad, and 75 to 90 percent of average in other deficit areas, such as southeastern Mali (Figure 1-left). Forecasts of rainfall for August 27th to September 10th indicate a continuation of drier-than-average rainfall conditions across much of the region (Figure 1-middle). Maximum temperatures are also forecast to be abnormally hot across much of the Sahel, coinciding with many of the forecast below-average rainfall areas (Figure 1-right). The substantial rainfall deficits thus far, combined with below-average NDVI in eastern Niger and central Chad, could indicate that the season conditions have especially limited vegetation productivity in these areas, with hot, drier-than-average conditions forecast to persist in the coming weeks.
Figure 1. Season precipitation anomaly and 15-day forecasts of precipitation and maximum temperature.
Left: CHC Early Estimate comparing the May 1st to August 25th, 2026 precipitation total to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS average for the same accumulation period. This panel uses CHIRPS3 Preliminary for August 1–25, 2026. Middle: A 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast anomaly from August 27th, 2026. Right: A Heat Monitor product, which compares August 27th to September 10th average maximum temperature and precipitation forecasts to historical conditions for the same period. Yellow-red hues indicate abnormally hot (> 80th percentile) maximum temperature in active cropping areas during at least one pentad (5-day period) between August 27th and September 10th. Dark grey indicates an active cropping area that did not experience abnormally hot conditions. Light grey indicates non-active (out-of-season) cropping areas. Active areas are based on GEOGLAM Crop Monitor bi-monthly crop calendars for multiple crop types and on FEWS NET and JRC ASAP cropland masks. Analysis by CHC, using CHIRTS-ERA5 data.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Middle East & North Africa
Across the Middle East and North Africa, winter wheat harvesting finalized in July with generally favourable yields expected, as a dry start to the season was followed by rainfall improvements from late 2025, except in northwestern Libya and southern Iraq,where yields were likely impacted by seasonal dryness and irrigation restrictions, respectively. Wheat and cereal prospects for 2026 are favourable across most of North Africa and the Middle East, based on FAO and ministry estimates. In Morocco, FAO estimates wheat production at 23 percent above the five-year average, while barley is estimated at 7 percent below average. Ministry estimates are 60 percent above average for wheat and 94 percent above average for barley. In Algeria, cereal production is estimated at 30 percent above average by FAO, close to the 33 percent above average estimated by the ministry. In Tunisia, cereal production is estimated at about 20 percent above average by FAO and 35 percent above average by the ministry. In Libya, FAO estimates cereal production at 19 percent below average due to dry conditions in the western part of the country. In Syria, FAO estimates cereal production at 70 percent above average and nearly four times the 2025 harvest. In Iraq, cereal production is estimated at 31 percent above average. In Iran, cereal production is estimated to be near average. Throughout the subregion, wheat cropping is now out of season, and planting will mostly begin in October for the 2026/27 season.
In Egypt, summer-planted rice and maize crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage while planting of Nili season (Nile flood) rice continues, and overall cropping prospects remain favourable. Rice harvesting is just beginning in northern Iran while crops continue to develop in Iraq where production has been permitted for this year, and conditions remain favourable.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across Southern Africa, harvesting of the 2025/26 main season cereals finalized in June, and most areas are now out of season. Land preparation is underway for the 2026/27 main season, and planting will begin across Angola, Zambia, South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini in October. Current models indicate moderately high chances of below-normal rainfall from October 2026 to January 2027, in association with the ongoing El Niño (See Climate Influences Pg. 4 and Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 13). According to recent extended outlook estimates, for the 2026/2027 maize harvest, the developing El Niño event makes poor yield outcomes likely in Zimbabwe and South Africa. Regional total production of maize and sorghum during past El Niño events has been about 10 to 15 percent below normal, and deficits of over 40 percent are possible. In Zambia, the ongoing El Niño is expected to result in delayed and below-average rainfall during the start of the 2026/27 season, particularly in the south and west, which could constrain planting and reduce cultivation. In Mozambique, the semi-arid provinces of Maputo, Gaza, and Inhambane, followed by Sofala, Tete, Manica, and southern Zambézi are expected to be most affected by the likely very strong El Niño event in late 2026. Forecast below-average rains, dry spells, and high temperatures will likely reduce planted area for the 2026/27 agricultural season. Conversely, northern areas, particularly Cabo Delgado, are expected to receive average rainfall. In Lesotho, the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season is expected to be delayed and below average, in relation to the ongoing El Niño event. The dry conditions are likely to negatively impact soil moisture levels, planting, and crop development for the upcoming season.
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of second season maize is nearing completion, while planting and development of main season cereals continues. Despite below-average rainfall received from May to July in the north and centre, previous rainfall surpluses maintained adequate soil moisture levels. However, ongoing armed conflict in the east continues to disrupt food production and supply and cause population displacements.
Winter wheat crops continue to develop across Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho under mixed conditions, as recent dry conditions have degraded yield prospects in the main producing Western Cape. A bumper crop is expected in Zambia and Zimbabwe due to good antecedent soil moisture and adequate reservoir levels, which have benefitted irrigation water availability. This season, farmers have not been affected by interruptions in electricity, and Kariba dam levels are at 46 percent of capacity and the highest level since 2021 (See Seasonal Forecast Alert Pg. 13). In South Africa, widespread above-normal rainfall during late summer and autumn resulted in above-normal soil moisture and sufficient irrigation water availability over the interior. Conversely, dry conditions during July and August negatively affected crops in the main dryland production region located in the southwest. The area estimate for wheat was revised upwards to 479,500 hectares. National wheat production is expected to be 1,762 million tons, which is 7.50 percent less than the previous season, and the expected yield is 3.68 tons per hectare. In the Western Cape, expected production is 874,500 tons, which represents 50 percent of total national output and is 10.78 percent less than the previous season.
Seasonal Forecast Alert: Elevated drought risk during the 2026-2027 main cropping season
Below-average October 2023 to March 2024 rainfall is anticipated across much of Southern Africa, associated with expectations for strong and sustained El Niño conditions. During El Niño, consistent seasonal rains sometimes arrive later than usual in central and southeastern areas. Main season peak rainfall is often below-average with dry spells during December-January-February (DJF), a critical period for rainfall and crop development. Much hotter-than-average temperatures will also be expected if suppressed rainfall conditions occur during this El Niño, which raises the chances of crops being negatively impacted by low soil moisture and heat stress. During the last moderate-strong El Niño, extremely low rainfall and high temperatures from late January to March 2024, followed by previously poor rainfall conditions in some areas, resulted in drought declarations in Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi. Multiyear reductions in Kariba Dam levels led to prolonged energy rationing. Currently, Lake Kariba levels are at 46% of capacity, which is the highest since 2021.
Past impacts of El Niño indicate an elevated risk of negative impacts on agricultural production in 2027 across central and southeastern areas. December to March rainfall during previous moderate-to-strong El Niño events shows a high frequency of below-normal precipitation outcomes in Zimbabwe, southern and central Mozambique, southern Zambia, southern Malawi, South Africa, Lesotho, eSwatini, southwestern Angola, northwestern Namibia, Botswana, and southern Madagascar (Figure 1-leftright). Above-normal rainfall has frequently occurred in western and central Angola and portions of southern DRC, northeastern Zambia, northern Mozambique, and northern Madagascar.
Models are currently indicating moderately high chances (50-60 percent chances) of below-normal rainfall during October 2026 to January 2027 (Figure 1-right), associated with the ongoing El Niño. Regarding rainfall performance at the start of the season, the WMO predicts 40-50 percent chances of below-normal October to November rainfall in northeastern South Africa, southern and central Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and other central region areas (not shown). Shorter-range forecasts should be monitored. While no two El Niño events or their impacts are identical, historical outcomes and model forecasts for rainfall collectively support the need for concern during the 2026-27 season. The severity of El Niño’s effects will depend on the magnitude of rainfall deficits and patterns of rainfall distribution, especially between December and February.
Figure 1. Historical seasonal December to March rainfall during moderate-strong El Niño and the WMO August rainfall probability forecast for October 2026-January 2027.
Left: Frequency of below-normal and above-normal December to March rainfall totals during moderate-to-strong El Niño years, based on CHIRPSv3 rainfall data during 8 years (1982, 1986, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2009, 2015, 2023). From the ENSO Explorer, an online research tool developed by the University of Botswana (UB) RAMP Lab, https://enso.ubramplab.org/. Right: October 2026 to January 2027 rainfall tercile probability forecast by WMO multimodel ensemble, based on August initial conditions. From WMO Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central & South Asia, winter wheat harvesting finalized across southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and final yields are expected to be favourable following a generally stable growing season. Additionally, wheat harvesting continues in parts of central and northeastern Afghanistan and is expected to finalize in early September. Spring wheat harvesting is just beginning in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, while crops continue to develop in Mongolia, and overall prospects remain favourable. Planting for the 2026/27 winter wheat season will mostly begin in October. According to recent extended outlook estimates, in Central Asia, El Niño events tend to increase yields for wheat, rice, and maize.
In Kazakhstan, drought and heat impacts during the summer were mitigated by rainfall improvement in the north and irrigation use in the south. While dry soil conditions were observed in central and eastern areas in mid-August, overall harvesting prospects remain favourable. Wheat and barley crops reached full maturity in the second dekad of August, and harvesting began earlier than usual due to the hot summer and early ripening of crops. As of late August, 5.4 million hectares of grain crops, representing 34.4 percent of the total area, had been harvested, according to the ministry. In Afghanistan, overall wheat yields for the 2025/26 season are expected to be better than last year and near average. Second season maize and rice crops continue to develop under favourable conditions. Surface water availability is insufficient in some southern regions, and farmers are relying on groundwater extraction for second season crops. Furthermore, limited rains and high temperatures are negatively impacting pasture availability. For the upcoming 2026/27 wheat season, the strengthening El Niño event is expected to bring above-average rainfall and improved water availability across the country. The likely good rains combined with growing adoption of certified wheat seed could substantially increase wheat production. Additionally, according to recent extended outlook estimates, El Niño events typically improve rainfed wheat production more than irrigated wheat, with total production ranging from 0 to 10 percent above normal, depending on the timing and geographical distribution of precipitation. However, ongoing insecurity in the Middle East has driven sharp increases in fertilizer prices. The country has naturally low soil fertility, and wheat production depends on diammonium phosphate and urea applications, accounting for 61 percent of annual fertilizer demand. Farmers unable to afford adequate inputs for the upcoming 2026/27 winter wheat season are likely to reduce application rates, cultivate smaller areas, or forego planting. In Pakistan, Kharif season rice and main season maize and millet crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and while conditions are generally favourable for standing crops, localized heat and moisture stress are emerging, including in Balochistan and rainfed areas of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and some northern areas. Maize crops are highly sensitive to water shortages during reproductive growth stages, and while rice is less at risk in areas with adequate irrigation, prolonged hot and dry conditions would increase water demand. However, dam levels remain adequate for irrigated areas in Punjab, and recent rains have provided some short-term moisture support in Sindh. While widespread crop losses are not yet evident, yields could be impacted if dry and hot conditions continue through September, particularly in rainfed and water-stressed zones.
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, planting of dry-season rice is nearing completion, and crops are mostly in the harvesting stage. The yield is expected to be favourable with sufficient water and sunlight received during the growing period. Additionally, sowing of dry-season maize is mostly complete, and harvesting is underway. Yields are expected to be generally favourable, supported by adequate irrigation water and sufficient sunlight. In Malaysia, newly sown wet-season maize is in the early vegetative stage under favourable growing conditions.
In northern Southeast Asia, planting of wet-season rice is in the final stage, and the total planted area is expected to be roughly the same as last year despite a slight drought. Most planted wet-season rice is now at the tillering to maturing stage, and harvesting of earlier planted rice has begun. Growing conditions remain favourable, but drought may decrease production compared to last year, particularly in Thailand, where prolonged dry spells in July combined with an outbreak of rice blast disease negatively affected rice crops, and in Cambodia, where cultivated areas were affected by drought in August. Conversely, recent heavy rains and storms in August negatively impacted wet-season rice crops in the Philippines. Monsoon flooding also affected planted wet-season rice in localized areas of Myanmar, and replanting efforts are underway. Additionally, wet-season maize is mainly in the reproductive stage under generally favourable conditions, though localized heavy rain and drought during the flowering stage are impacting some areas, particularly in Northern Luzon in the Philippines, where heavy rains and storms resulted in crop lodging. Conversely, drought in July negatively impacted maize growth in Thailand.
Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions remain generally favourable, except in eastern Bangladesh where heavy monsoon rains resulted in flash floods and mudslides and are expected to result in yield declines for Aus season rice. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, overall growing conditions remain favourable due to abundant rainfall received, despite localized flooding in the southern rice bowl area.
According to recent extended outlook estimates, El Niño events tend to decrease rice production in Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Thailand through a combination of decreased planted areas and yields. The effects on Indonesia are most reliable and are consistent with current observations and seasonal climate forecasts. Rice is the only crop where widespread impacts on harvested area from El Niño are apparent in the historical record.
In Indonesia, planting of dry-season rice is nearing completion. The total planted area is estimated at 4.64 million hectares, which is 3 percent below the same period last year. Crop conditions are generally favourable, supported by rainfall received in late July to early August. August is also the second month of the dry-season rice harvest. The harvested area is estimated at 2.05 million hectares with a favourable yield due to sufficient water and sunlight received during the growing period. Additionally, the total sown area of dry-season maize is approximately 1.09 million hectares, representing a slight 1 percent decrease compared to last year. Growing conditions remain favourable due to adequate irrigation water availability. August is also the second month of the dry-season maize harvest, with an estimated harvested area of approximately 0.46 million hectares. Yields are expected to be generally favourable, supported by adequate irrigation water and sufficient sunlight. In Malaysia, planting of dry-season rice is nearing completion, and harvesting progress has reached 69 percent of the planted area. The remaining standing crops are mostly at the late maturity stage and are expected to be harvested in the coming weeks, and overall crop conditions remain favourable. Additionally, most dry-season maize fields are at the maturity to harvesting stage under favourable conditions. Furthermore, land preparation for wet-season rice is underway, and planting has commenced. Weather conditions are generally warmer and drier during August, and some areas may have experienced below-normal rainfall. Wet-season maize planting is also underway in suitable locations, and newly planted crops are at the early vegetative stage with favourable field conditions. In Brunei, dry-season rice harvesting has been completed in 15 percent of the targeted areas, while crops in the remaining areas are in the late reproductive to ripening stage. Weather conditions are favourable for harvesting, with low precipitation rates and high solar radiation. However, the increase in pest incidence has raised concerns regarding the overall effect on yield.
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In the Philippines, wet-season rice planted in April to May is in the maturing to harvesting stage. Heavy rains and strong winds from the enhanced southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones in early August damaged an estimated 31 thousand hectares of rice area. As of early September, the flooding affected 60 thousand hectares of total crops and damaged 10 thousand hectares. The rice yield is expected to be lower than last year due to unstable weather conditions. Additionally, wet-season maize planted from April to June is currently in the reproductive stage. Recent heavy rainfall and severe winds brought by an enhanced southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones have also affected maize fields and caused crop lodging, particularly in Northern Luzon. Consequently, yield is expected to be lower than last year in affected areas. In Thailand, the planted area of wet-season rice is approximately 90 percent of the expected total area. Crops are currently in the tillering stage, and a combination of prolonged dry spells in some regions in July along with an outbreak of rice blast disease negatively affected rice growth and development. Total rice production is projected to be lower than last year as drought conditions and reduced fertilizer application are expected to limit yields. Additionally, the planted area of wet-season maize is expected to decline by about 1 percent, or 10,000 hectares, from last year due to rising production costs. Crops are currently at the reproductive grain-filling stage. Production and yield are also expected to decrease, as drought during the flowering stage in July caused stunted growth and incomplete ear development. In northern Viet Nam, the other wet-season (summer-autumn) rice crops are in the young panicle formation stage, while the main wet-season (seasonal) rice crops are in the seeding stage. Crop conditions are generally favourable, although localized heatwaves and heavy rainfall have caused some adverse impacts. Additionally, the planted area of wet-season maize reached 71 thousand hectares, down 5.3 percent compared with last year. Crops are in the reproductive stage, and conditions are generally more favourable than last year, supported by relatively well-distributed rainfall. In southern Viet Nam, the main wet-season (summer-autumn) rice crop is in the harvesting stage, with 0.36 million hectares harvested out of 1.70 million hectares planted. Meanwhile, the other wet-season (autumn-winter and seasonal) rice crops are in the growing stage under generally favourable conditions. Additionally, the planted area of wet-season maize reached 137 thousand hectares, down 4.6 percent compared with last year. Crops are in the reproductive stage, and conditions are generally more favourable than last year, supported by more evenly distributed rainfall. In lowland areas of Laos, planting of wet-season rice reached 807 thousand hectares. Crops are in the early young panicle-forming stage, and adequate weather conditions in August are generally supporting paddy growth, with rainfall received in all regions. Since late June, the southwest monsoon, Tropical Storm Maysak, and subsequent weather systems resulted in recurring flooding, waterlogging, and landslides in many areas. The situation progressively worsened in July and August with prolonged and repeated heavy rainfall, affecting Khammouane, Savannakhet, Bolikhamxay, Luang Namtha, Xiengkhouang, and Champasak provinces. High-intensity rainfall was recorded in some planted fields, but no significant damage was reported. In upland areas, the planted area of wet-season rice reached approximately 80 percent of the national plan, and crops are in the young panicle-forming stage under favourable growing conditions. Throughout the country, the planted area of wet-season maize has progressed to 39 thousand hectares, covering 37 percent of the national plan. Crops are in the early vegetative stage, and overall field conditions remain favourable as monsoon rainfall is supporting healthy growth. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice has reached 4.2 million hectares, accounting for about 69 percent of the national plan of 6.04 million hectares. August is the peak planting period, and progress is similar to last year. Most planted wet-season rice is now at the tillering to panicle formation stages, and overall growing conditions are favourable. However, recent heavy and continuous rainfall resulted in rising water levels and flooding across low-lying and flood-prone areas. The monsoon floods affected over 26 thousand hectares of the planted area, and about 600 hectares have been damaged. Replanting is being carried out for those damaged fields. Additionally, planting of wet-season maize reached 92 percent of the national target. While heavy rain resulted in localized damage in the main growing areas, most wet-season maize fields have reached the reproductive flowering stage, and harvesting began in August with favourable yields. In Cambodia, the planted area of wet-season rice is 2.79 million hectares, representing 95 percent of the national plan. In August, parts of the northwest and other regions were impacted by drought, affecting 9 percent of the cultivated area. Earlier planted rice is in the grain-filling to harvesting stage, and 73 thousand hectares have been harvested with an average yield of 4.2 tonnes per hectare. Additionally, the sown area of wet season maize reached 73 percent of the national plan. Crops are in the reproductive to harvesting stage under favourable growing conditions with adequate weather and sufficient water supply.
In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season rice (40 percent of annual rice output) and Yala season maize (10 percent of annual maize output) is just beginning under favourable conditions and will finalize in October. In Nepal, maize harvesting is underway and will finalize in September, and production prospects are generally favourable despite dry weather in June that resulted in localized losses in some southern areas. Additionally, on-time paddy planting in mid-May was followed by dry weather conditions in June that slowed planting activities and negatively impacted crop emergence in some areas. Outputs will depend on weather conditions through the October to December harvesting period. Forecasts indicate below-average amounts are likely to continue from August through October, which could negatively impact paddy crop development and final yields. In Bangladesh, harvesting of Aus season rice (10 percent of annual rice production) finalized in July under mixed conditions. Production is estimated to be 4.1 million tonnes and about 6 percent below average due to instances of flooding and landslides between May and July in the southeast and northeast, particularly in Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Moulvibazar, and Habiganj. Planting of sorghum and Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice production) continues under favourable conditions. Aman season rice production is preliminarily forecast at a bumper 25.9 million tonnes. While the flooding in May and July resulted in localized losses for newly planted crops and damaged seedbeds, most affected areas were replanted, and weather conditions remain favourable across most producing areas. Overall, the aggregate 2026 paddy production is forecast at 61.9 million tonnes and about 5 percent above average. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize harvesting is underway while rice crops continue to develop for harvesting in September and October, and overall growing conditions remain favourable. Crop biomass is above average in all provinces due to abundant rainfall received, particularly in July. In the southern rice bowl area of South and North Hwanghae, heavy rainfall in July resulted in localized flooding. A reported 3,000 hectares of farmland were flooded in Sinuiju city and Yuiju county. Singye county was also impacted by flash flooding, though there have been no assessments of flooded farmland.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 (Primera season) conditions as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, harvesting of Primera season maize and bean crops is underway across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua and is expected to finalize in August. Maize conditions have been downgraded to poor in Honduras and Nicaragua, and concern remains in Guatemala and El Salvador as extended dry spells and high temperatures this season resulted in delayed Primera season planting and hampered crop development, particularly in the Dry Corridor region. The conditions are expected to reduce yields for both large-scale and subsistence farmers. Many subsistence farmers reported losses above 75 percent, and some crops died in the early stages due to erratic rainfall performance. Concern also remains for bean crops across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Beans are slightly more resilient to drought conditions than maize.
Land preparation is underway for the Segunda/Postrera season. The extended dry spells, high temperatures, and erratic rains are affecting the start of the season, and farmers are awaiting improved moisture conditions. According to recent extended outlook estimates, El Niño events lead to drought and poor vegetation health in much of Central America, consistent with current conditions and forecast droughts (See Climate Influences Pg. 4 and Regional Outlook Pg. 20).
In Guatemala, El Niño-induced dry conditions and the onset of the canícula period (mid-summer dry spell) resulted in deterioration of Primera crops, particularly in the Dry Corridor. Additionally, irregular rains and high temperatures resulted in several disruptions to agricultural activities, including planting delays, non-planting, crop stress and wilting, and replanting. Conversely, localized parts of the Northern Transversal Strip and Alta Verapaz located in the north received abundant rains in mid-July that resulted in localized flooding and crop damage. Furthermore, a state fuel subsidy imposed during May and June in response to supply chain disruptions ended in early July, resulting in transportation cost increases. In Honduras, poor rainfall and prolonged dry spells disrupted planting for the Primera season and disrupted crop development. Additionally, significant rainfall onset delays across the southwestern Dry Corridor resulted in prolonged planting delays into July. Erratic rainfall has already resulted in crop losses, including 8,772 hectares of maize and 3,080 hectares of red beans, particularly in the Dry Corridor departments of Lempira, Ocotepeque, Intibucá, and Comayagua located in the west. A combination of delayed and reduced plantings as well as ongoing moisture deficits is expected to reduce rainfed crop production. Most areas experienced severe rainfall deficits in July, coinciding with the onset of the canícula dry spell period that exacerbated moisture stress. The government declared a state of drought on August 19 across several municipalities, and a red alert has been declared due to significant crop losses. Conversely, localized flooding in Gracias a Dios and Olancho departments located in the east disrupted agricultural activities. Furthermore, high fertilizer prices resulted in increased production costs during the planting period and limited input use among subsistence farmers, contributing to below-average yields. High fertilizer prices are also expected to increase production costs for the upcoming Postrera season and continue to drive up costs of transportation, electricity, and water.
In Haiti, harvesting of Printemps season maize and bean crops and main season rice crops finalized in August, while harvesting of main season rice continues, and overall conditions are favourable. Despite erratic rainfall reported during the Printemps season, irrigation systems supported crop production. Additionally, planting of Été season maize and bean crops continues, and while irrigation systems are supporting the start of the season, below-average and erratic rainfall are resulting in reduced water availability. In Cuba, planting and development of main season rice continue, and persisting energy shortages this year are resulting in hampered plantings and curbed crop development.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Record heat and expanding drought intensify as El Niño strengthens
Rainfall deficits that began early in the Primera season have deepened into one of the driest seasons in the last 40 years. Estimates for April 1st to August 20th, 2026, using CHIRPS Preliminary data for the month of August, show that most of the western coastal areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua received 30 to 60 percent of average seasonal rainfall, ranking among the driest such periods since the CHIRPS record began in 1981 (Figure 1 Top-Left and Figure 1 Top-Right). In Honduras, the drought has left an estimated 1 million people facing water shortages and crop and livestock losses. Deficits were milder, but still notable, in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Extreme heat has compounded the dryness. CHIRTS-ERA5 data for July 21st to August 19th indicate maximum temperatures were 1-3 °C above normal across the Pacific corridor of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, with many locations registering as the hottest on record for this period. The combined hot and dry conditions contribute to accelerated soil-moisture loss during the Primera harvest and Segunda planting periods.
Forecasts indicate little relief is expected over the next 30 days. The SubC ensemble forecast for August 22nd to September 20th shows continued above-average temperatures, 1-4 °C above normal (Figure 1 Bottom-Left), and below-normal precipitation (Figure 1 Bottom-Middle) across much of Central America. The CHC’s Heat Monitor’s 15-day global forecast similarly flags Central American and southern Mexican croplands among the areas most likely to experience simultaneous extreme heat and below-average rainfall in the coming days. Localized flooding remains possible in southeastern Nicaragua and eastern Costa Rica.
Seasonal forecasts for September to November 2026 highlight ongoing drier and much hotter-than-normal conditions during the Segunda season. NMME forecasts estimate a 60-80% probability of below-normal September–November 2026 rainfall across most of Central America and the Caribbean (Figure 1 Bottom-Right). These forecasts reflect a rapidly strengthening El Niño: NOAA’s CPC has issued an El Niño Advisory with over 90% probability of a very strong event this fall and winter. In addition to generally hot-and-dry conditions, El Niño events are generally associated with a suppression of tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic—NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% chance of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season (7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes). While this lowers associated wind and flood risk, it also reduces the likelihood of late-season rains that could otherwise replenish water resources.
Figure 1. Seasonal rainfall anomaly and a forecast-based outlook of the rainfall rank, and forecasts of temperature and precipitation anomalies.
Top Row: CHC Early Estimates, which show rainfall estimated for April 1st to August 20th, 2026 (Left) and a forecast-based outlook for April 1st to August 31st, 2026 (Right). The left panel shows differences from the 1996-2025 average. The right panel includes a 10-day bias-adjusted NCEP GEFS forecast (CHIRPS3-GEFS) from August 21st and shows how the estimated seasonal total compares to the CHIRPS historical record. Red and blue hues indicate where the April to August, 2026, total is in the top 3 driest or wettest years on record.
Bottom Row: Multi-models ensemble forecasts of 30-day average maximum temperature (Left), 30-day precipitation (Middle), and 3-month precipitation (Right). Middle and right: Multi-model ensemble forecast for the probability of below-normal, normal, and above-normal rainfall for August 22 - September 20, 2026 (Middle; from CHC SubC) and September to November, 2026, rainfall (Right), based on August initial conditions, ECMWF SEAS5 and 6 NMME models, and a 1991-2020 baseline of model hindcasts. NMME data is from the IRI Data Library; ECMWF data is from Copernicus. Figure from CHC ECMWF and NMME.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published September 3rd, 2026.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.