Global Crop Monitor
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No. 32: Published May 1st, 2025
Conditions as of April 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of April are positive for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, adverse conditions remain in parts of Central Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and North America. For maize, conditions are generally favourable, with some areas of concern in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. For rice, conditions are favourable, albeit with some spot issues in Haiti, Mexico, and Sub-Saharan Africa. For soybeans, harvesting is continuing in the southern hemisphere as sowing is progressing in the northern hemisphere. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely through October 2025 (91 to 52 per cent chances), according to the CPC/IRI outlook. There is limited long-range ENSO predictability at this time of the year. Currently, the CPC/IRI predicts similar chances of neutral or La Niña conditions near the end of 2025 to early 2026 and lower chances of El Niño conditions during that time.
Forecast above-average temperatures during late April to late May in northwestern India and Pakistan indicate that impactful heat waves may continue in these countries. In Afghanistan, forecast hotter and drier-than-normal conditions elevate risks of negative impacts to rainfed crops and rapid reductions in snowpack.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, a lack of substantial spring rain in the US Great Plains is causing drought stress in the primary winter wheat-growing states. The sowing of spring wheat is beginning. In Canada, winter wheat is under favourable conditions in Ontario and Quebec, while under watch in the Prairies. In Mexico, conditions remain mixed in the north due to the reduced availability of irrigation water. In Europe, conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat in the EU; however, additional rainfall is needed in Austria, Czechia, Germany, and Poland to sustain crop development. In Türkiye, prolonged dry weather and cold spells have delayed crop growth and reduced yield prospects. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat is experiencing mixed conditions as some areas have benefited from overwinter precipitation, while others require more to sustain growth. Spring wheat sowing is beginning. In Ukraine, a precipitation deficit since the year's start is beginning to stress winter wheat development. In Central Asia, winter wheat harvesting is underway in Afghanistan under favourable conditions as the crop continues to develop in the rest of the region. Spring wheat sowing is now underway in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia, and early-season dry conditions are impacting sowing progress in most areas. In South Asia, harvesting is wrapping up in India in the main producing states under favourable conditions. In Pakistan, harvesting is beginning with concerns remaining in the barani area of northern Punjab due to continuing below-average rainfall. In Nepal, harvesting is continuing with a total sown area above average this season. In East Asia, winter wheat in China is under favourable conditions, and spring wheat sowing continues. In MENA, harvesting is just beginning in Morocco and Tunisia, while crops continue to develop across Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Poor precipitation this season is expected to reduce yields in Morocco, northwestern Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and northeastern Iran, with ongoing conflict disruptions contributing to poor yields in Lebanon and Syria. In Sub-Saharan Africa, harvest is wrapping up in Sudan under poor conditions due to the impacts of the ongoing conflict. Sowing is beginning in Zimbabwe. In South America, sowing is beginning in Chile under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In South America, harvesting in Brazil for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) continues under exceptional conditions in the South region, while it is mixed in the Northeast region. The summer-planted crop (larger season) is developing under favourable conditions. In Argentina, harvesting is ongoing under mixed conditions. Hot and dry weather during the season negatively impacted both the early-planted crop (usually larger season) and late-planted crop (usually smaller season); however, rains in February and March partially supported grain filling in the late-planted crop. In Uruguay, harvest continues under favourable conditions. In Central America & the Caribbean, dry weather in Mexico continues in the northwest, straining available irrigation water for the Autumn-Winter crop (smaller season). Sowing for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season) has begun in the south. In Cuba, harvesting of second-season maize is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In North America, sowing is picking up speed with an expected increase in total sown area compared to 2024. In Europe, sowing is beginning in the EU under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is just beginning. In the Russian Federation, sowing is beginning in the southern regions. In Asia, sowing continues in China for the spring-planted crop. In India, harvesting is underway for the Rabi crop (smaller season). In Bangladesh, harvest is wrapping for the winter maize season (larger season) as sowing continues for the summer maize season (smaller season). In Pakistan, sowing is beginning. In Nepal, the sowing of the main season crop is continuing. In Sri Lanka, the sowing of the Yala season (the smaller season) is beginning. In DPRK, sowing is just beginning. In East Africa, conditions are mixed in much of Uganda, bimodal areas of eastern Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, and Burundi due to erratic rainfall. In Ethiopia, Belg season crops are under mixed conditions in the central and northern regions due to drier-than-normal conditions. In West Africa, sowing of main-season crops is ramping up along the Gulf of Guinea, including in Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Nigeria, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, sowing of second-season crops is underway in southern Cameroon. In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion in most regions across Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini. Conditions are generally favourable with near-average yields and production expected in most areas, except in southern Angola, southern Zambia, northern Malawi, and eastern Madagascar. In South Africa, harvesting is ongoing, albeit with reduced yields in Free State compared to the five-year average.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In East Asia, sowing is wrapping up in China for early double-crop rice (smallest season) and continuing for single-season rice (largest season) under favourable conditions. In Central & South Asia, conditions are favourable for the Rabi and Summer crops as harvesting begins. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable as the harvest of the Boro crop (largest season) starts and the sowing of the Aus crop (smallest season) continues. In Sri Lanka, sowing of the Yala season crops is beginning under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, the harvest of wet-season rice in Indonesia is progressing faster than last year, as the sowing of dry-season rice begins earlier than usual due to good weather. In Malaysia, the harvest of wet-season rice is progressing. In Brunei, the harvest of rainfed wet-season rice is progressing as the sowing of dry-season rice is delayed due to repairs being made to the irrigation system. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring season) is under favourable conditions as harvesting continues in the Mekong Delta. Sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) has begun in the south. In Thailand, conditions are favourable as the harvest of dry-season rice continues. In the Philippines, the harvest of dry-season rice continues under favourable conditions. In Myanmar, the sowing of dry-season rice is wrapping up as the harvest of earlier sown crops continues. March’s earthquake caused damage to irrigation canals and roads, and the government is currently investigating the amount of damage. In Cambodia, harvesting of dry-season rice is wrapping up. In the Americas, harvesting is progressing in Brazil ahead of the previous season. In Uruguay, the harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In the US, sowing is progressing under favourable conditions. In Cuba, harvesting of second-season rice is just beginning. In Haiti, sowing of Printemps crops is ongoing, however, heavy rains received over the last month resulted in flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage. In Honduras, harvesting of second-season rice crops is wrapping up. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions remain mixed in Mozambique due to the impacts from Cyclone Jude. In Madagascar, dry conditions remain a concern. In Mali, the ongoing conflict remains a concern.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In South America, the harvest is progressing in Brazil at a faster pace than last year under exceptional conditions in the North and Central-West regions. However, in the south, conditions remain mixed due to a lack of rainfall and high temperatures, particularly in parts of Rio Grande do Sul. An increase in the total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, the harvest is continuing for the early-planting (typically larger season) crop and beginning for the late-planted (typically smaller season) crop. While yields are highly variable, most of the country, excluding the northeast, experienced a major recovery due to the rains in February and March. In Uruguay, harvest is beginning with yields slightly above the averages of previous years. In Africa, conditions remain mixed in some South African provinces as ongoing rainfall delays harvesting efforts. In North America, sowing is beginning in the US with an expected decrease in the total sown area compared to last year. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China as sowing commences in the northeast.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely through October 2025 (91 to 52 percent chances), according to the CPC/IRI outlook. There is limited long-range ENSO predictability at this time of the year. Currently, the CPC/IRI predicts similar chances of neutral or La Niña conditions near the end of 2025 to early 2026 and lower chances of El Niño conditions during that time.
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin, global temperatures in March 2025 were the second warmest on record.
Forecast above-average temperatures during late April to late May in northwestern India and Pakistan indicate that impactful heat waves may continue in these countries. In Afghanistan, forecast hotter and drier-than-normal conditions elevate risks of negative impacts to rainfed crops and rapid reductions in snowpack.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 24 April 2025. UCSB Climate Hazards Center and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) Subseasonal Consortium. Map source UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the southern Great Plains in the US, while below-average precipitation over the US Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley. During the same time, temperatures are leaning to be above-average across most of the Prairies in Canada and the northern and southwestern US. The long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning towards below-average precipitation in the western US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the US and Canada. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the United States.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation in northeastern Mexico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, while below-average over southern Mexico, Guatemala, and eastern Nicaragua. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, EL Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, while below-average over western Mexico. The long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests a leaning towards below-average precipitation over eastern Mexico. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central America & the Caribbean and the CM4AMIS outlook for Mexico.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 3 - 16 May 2025, issued on 25 April 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern Colombia, northern and northwest Venezuela, western Ecuador, central Peru, and central Brazil, while below-average over Suriname, French Guiana, northeast and southern Brazil, eastern Bolivia, northern and southern Paraguay, eastern Argentina, central Chile, and Uruguay. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeastern Venezuela, central and northeastern Brazil, southern Peru, southwestern Bolivia, and western and southern Argentina. The long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Ecuador, while below-average over northeast Brazil, Chile, and western Argentina. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Ecuador, central and western Peru, western Bolivia, and northern and central Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above -average precipitation over Portugal and Spain, while below-average over Ireland, England, southern Norway, southern Sweden, southern Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, western Belarus, Poland, eastern Germany, northern France, Ukraine, and the eastern Russian Federation. During this time, temperatures are leaning towards above-average over parts of Ireland, the Western United Kingdom, northern Germany, southern Norway, southern Sweden, and southeastern Türkiye. The long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over eastern Ukraine and the central and southern regions of the Russian Federation. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average across all of Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 3 - 16 May 2025, issued on 25 April 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation in northern Algeria, northcentral Libya, central northeast Egypt, Jordan, and western Yemen, while below-average over northeastern Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central and eastern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, while below-average over Morocco and central Yemen. The long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northern Iran. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation southern Côte d'Ivoire, northeastern Nigeria, southern Chad, northern Cameroon, southern Sudan, southern and central South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, southern and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, central and southern Republic of the Congo, southern Gabon, northern Angola, northeast Zambia, southern Botswana, central South Africa, northeast Mozambique, and northern Madagascar. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central Mali, Niger, northern Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, southern Uganda, central and northeastern Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, northern South Africa, and Madagascar, while below-average over northern and western Mauritania. For the long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over Niger, Chad, Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, northern Tanzania, and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, while below-average over Senegal, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, western Guinea, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Nigeria. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the continent, with the highest likelihood over eastern Mauritania, northern Mali, northern Niger, northern Chad, northern Sudan, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, northern Gabon, eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, and Madagascar. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for East Africa.
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely May-June-July (MJJ) 2025 rainfall tercile, based on March conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over southern and eastern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, northern and western Afghanistan, eastern and western Turkmenistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan, while below-average over northern Kazakhstan. The long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, western Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and northern Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region, except in northeastern Kazakhstan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern Pakistan, northern and northwest India, and western Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Pakistan and northwest and southwest India, while below-average over northcentral India. The long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Pakistan, India, Nepal, and western Bangladesh. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern and southern Pakistan, coastal India, and Sri Lanka. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northeast China, the Far East of the Russian Federation, and northern Japan, while below-average over northcentral and southwest China and southern and central Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central and western China, southern Republic of Korea, and Japan. The long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over southwest and northeast China. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over southern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia, while below-average over central Myanmar, Thailand, northern Laos, northern Viet Nam, western Cambodia, and northern Indonesia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, coastal Australia, and New Zealand. The long-term May-June-July 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the central and southern Philippines, eastern Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea, while a leaning towards below-average over southern Viet Nam. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for northeastern Australia. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Australia.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely May-June-July (MJJ) 2025 rainfall tercile, based on March conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble