Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 44: Published June 4th 2026
Conditions as of May 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of May remain generally positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, conditions are overall favourable, albeit with some spots of concern in Europe, North America, and Australia. For maize, global conditions are generally favourable; however, areas of dryness are developing in parts of Europe, North America, and East Africa. For rice, overall conditions are favourable; however, there are some sowing delays in southern Viet Nam. For soybeans, harvesting is progressing in the Southern Hemisphere as sowing advances in the Northern Hemisphere. The remaining crops are detailed in the CM4EW publication
Global Climate Influences Overview
Neutral ENSO conditions are present. El Niño conditions are forecast to quickly develop and persist through early 2027. There are 82% chances of El Niño conditions during May to July 2026, and 96% chances during December 2026 to February 2027, according to the May 2026 NOAA CPC ENSO outlook. The 2026–2027 El Niño will likely be at least of moderate strength by July to September 2026 (66% chance) and then become a strong or very strong event during October 2026 to January 2027 (~66 % chance). Confidence in current El Niño strength outlooks is limited by model forecast skill. The likelihood of extreme conditions during the coming year will increase as El Niño warms global temperatures.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.
In North America, conditions for winter wheat in the US Great Plains continue to deteriorate as harvesting begins in the south. Spring wheat sowing advances faster than normal. In Canada, spring wheat sowing is ongoing, albeit with delays due to cool temperatures and wet conditions. Winter wheat is under favourable conditions. In Europe, winter wheat in the EU is under generally favourable conditions, despite some dryness and a late cold spell in central Europe. In Türkiye, winter wheat conditions are favourable with above-average yields expected. In Ukraine, winter wheat remains under favourable conditions away from the war front. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. Spring wheat sowing is progressing, reducing the large delay caused by earlier cold and wet weather. In Central Asia, harvesting is ongoing in Afghanistan for irrigated wheat, while winter wheat continues to develop in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan under favourable conditions. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat is under favourable conditions in the south as spring wheat sowing advances in the north. Spring wheat planting continues in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan under favourable conditions. In South Asia, harvesting is progressing in Pakistan under favourable conditions. In Nepal, the harvest is progressing. In East Asia, the winter wheat in China is beginning harvest under favourable conditions as spring wheat develops. In Mongolia, spring wheat sowing is progressing. In MENA, winter wheat harvesting is underway across Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, with mostly near to above-average production expected. However, concern remains in western Libya due to early-season dry conditions and southern Iraq due to a government decision to limit the area of cultivation using surface water. In Iran, conditions have improved in most areas due to the good rainfall received since December 2025. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are favourable in Ethiopia. In Lesotho, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, sowing of winter wheat is beginning under favourable conditions. In Oceania, sowing is ongoing in Australia, albeit under dry conditions across northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. A sizable decline in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In South America, sowing in Brazil is ongoing. In Chile, sowing is beginning.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.
South America, the harvesting in Brazil of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is advancing under mostly exceptional conditions. The summer-planted crop (larger season) is developing, with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Argentina, the harvest of early-planted crops (larger season) is finishing, while the late-planted crop (smaller season) is awaiting grain dry-down and the conclusion of the soybean harvest, which remains the priority. In Central America & the Caribbean, conditions are favorable in Mexico for the autumn-winter season (smaller season). In Haiti, the Printemps season is under favourable conditions. In Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, sowing is beginning for the Primera season due to hot and dry weather, and delays are cause for concern. In North America, sowing in the US continues, with an expected reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, sowing is beginning more slowly than normal due to cold, wet weather. In Europe, sowing in the EU is finishing, with dryness in central Europe and some delays in southeastern Europe. In Ukraine, sowing is ending, with some dry soils in the western region. In the Russian Federation, sowing is wrapping up. In South Asia, sowing in Pakistan is continuing. In Sri Lanka, sowing of the Yala season maize is just ongoing under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, the summer (Kharif) season crop is under favourable conditions. In Nepal, main-season maize is under favourable conditions. In East Asia, sowing in China of spring-maize (larger season) is continuing under favorable conditions. In Southeast Asia, the harvest in Indonesia of the wet-season crop progresses as sowing of the dry-season crop continues. In Malaysia, conditions are favourable. Dry-season crop harvesting is wrapping up in Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand. In East Africa, conditions remain generally favourable for the sowing of main season crops in the north. Conversely, delayed and below-average rains are expected to reduce yields in Somalia, and dry concerns are impacting crops in parts of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania. In West Africa, the main-season crop is developing in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. In Southern Africa, harvesting of the main-season crop is wrapping up in all countries, including Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini. End-of-season conditions are mostly favourable despite unevenly distributed rainfall, including periods of flooding and dry spells in several areas. In South Africa, harvest is wrapping up with mostly above-average yields.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.
In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China for early double-crop rice (smallest season) and for the continued sowing of single-season rice (largest season). In the Republic of Korea, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions. In the DPRK, sowing is beginning under mixed conditions due to drought. In Central & South Asia, harvesting in India of the Rabi crop is wrapping up as the Summer crop continues to develop. In Bangladesh, harvesting of the Boro crop (largest season) wraps up with minor losses due to flooding in the low-lying haor regions of the northeast. Sowing continues for the Aus crop (smallest season) and begins for the Aman crop (medium season). In Sri Lanka, sowing of Yala season rice is continuing under favourable conditions. In Nepal, sowing of spring-season rice is progressing under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, harvesting in Indonesia of wet-season rice continues as sowing advances for dry-season rice. In Malaysia, the sowing of dry-season rice is progressing. In Brunei, the sowing of dry-season rice continues. In Viet Nam, the harvest is continuing for winter-spring (dry-season) rice in the south. The sowing of summer-autumn (wet-season) rice is behind normal due to delays in harvesting the winter-spring crop. In Thailand, harvesting is nearly complete for dry-season rice. Sowing of wet-season rice is just beginning, with an expected reduction in total sown area compared to last year due to lower rice prices and rising costs of agricultural inputs. In the Philippines, the dry-season rice harvest is wrapping up as the sowing of wet-season rice begins. In Myanmar, the harvesting of dry-season rice continues under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, wet-season rice sowing is beginning. In Laos, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion. In the Americas, the harvest in Brazil is finishing. In Argentina, harvesting is wrapping up. In Mexico, the autumn-winter crop is under favourable conditions. In the US, sowing is progressing. In Cuba, harvesting of the second-season rice crop is continuing as the sowing of the main-season rice is ongoing under mixed conditions. In Haiti, main season rice is under favourable conditions. In MENA, sowing in Egypt continues under favourable conditions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are favourable along the Gulf of Guinea, including in Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria. However, conflict remains a factor in Mali. In Tanzania, conditions are dry in the north and favourable elsewhere.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.
In South America, the last of the crop in Brazil is wrapping up harvesting in the South region under favourable conditions. In Argentina, harvesting is progressing for both the early-planting crop (larger season) and the late-planted crop (smaller season), with overall good yields. In Africa, harvest is wrapping up in South Africa with above-average yields across most of the country and an increase in total sown area compared to last year and the five-year average. In North America, sowing in the US is progressing rapidly under favourable conditions with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, sowing is beginning, albeit slightly later than normal due to wet and cold conditions in early May. In Europe, sowing is just continuing in the EU with dry conditions in central and eastern European countries, while sowing is delayed in Romania due to cold weather. In Ukraine, sowing is advancing under generally favourable conditions, albeit with dry soils in the western region. In the Russian Federation, sowing is progressing.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
Neutral ENSO conditions are present. El Niño conditions are forecast to quickly develop and persist through early 2027. There are 82% chances of El Niño conditions during May to July 2026, and 96% chances during December 2026 to February 2027, according to the May 2026 NOAA CPC ENSO outlook. The 2026–2027 El Niño will likely be at least of moderate strength by July to September 2026 (66% chance) and then become a strong or very strong event during October 2026 to January 2027 (~66 % chance). Confidence in current El Niño strength outlooks is limited by model forecast skill. The likelihood of extreme conditions during the coming year will increase as El Niño warms global temperatures.
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, the Sahel region, Southern Africa, India, northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
During late May to late June, above-average temperatures are forecast in Canada, the northern United States, Central America, South America, Europe, central and eastern Asia, India, the Maritime Continent region, central Australia, and across much of Africa.
Average temperature anomaly forecast for the next 30 days starting on 28 May 2026, from four Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models. SubC data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures and a developing El Niño event.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the southeastern US, while below-average precipitation over western Canada. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the Canadian Prairies and the western and northern US. The long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) does not indicate a strong likelihood of either above or below-average precipitation across the region. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region, with the highest likelihood over the western and southeast US and western Canada. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the USA.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over southern Mexico, while below-average precipitation over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northwestern and western Mexico, southern Cuba, and central Costa Rica. The long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over northwestern Mexico, while likely below-average precipitation over southeast Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the region. For additional details, see the CM4EW Regional Outlook for Central America and the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 June, issued on 29 May 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central and southeastern Brazil, Bolivia, southeastern Peru, northern Paraguay, northern Chile, and western Argentina, while below-average precipitation over northern Colombia, central Venezuela, northern and southern Brazil, northern Argentina, northwestern Uruguay, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western and central Colombia, northwestern Venezuela, Ecuador, northern and southern Peru, northeastern Bolivia, the majority of Brazil, northern Chile, and southern Argentina, while below-average over southern Venezuela, central Peru, and northern Chile. The long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Ecuador, western and southeastern Brazil, southern Peru, northern Bolivia, eastern Paraguay, and northwestern Argentina, while below-average precipitation over western Colombia, northern and eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and northeastern Brazil. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for Paraguay, eastern Argentina, northern Uruguay, and southern Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Finland, the central Russian Federation, and southwestern Türkiye, while below-average precipitation over northern Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, western and northern Germany, central Italy, northwestern Romania, southeastern Bulgaria, northern Türkiye, and the southern Russian Federation. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Moldova, northern Sweden, Finland, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, western Türkiye, Ukraine, and the central Russian Federation. The long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) does not indicate a strong likelihood of either above or below-average precipitation across the region. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of Europe except for Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Scotland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the central Russian Federation.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 June, issued on 29 May 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over northern Algeria. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Morocco, central Algeria, Tunisia, central Egypt, southern Saudi Arabia, and western Yemen. The long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over southwestern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and western Oman. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for western Morocco.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Mozambique, eastern South Africa, and Eswatini, while below-average precipitation over southern Mauritania, Senegal, southern Mali, southwestern Cameroon, the southern Central African Republic, the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, northern and southern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northern Tanzania. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region, while below-average temperatures are likely over southern Uganda, northern Tanzania, the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and northern Angola. For the long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over eastern Angola, Namibia, southwest Zambia, Botswana, southwest Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, and Madagascar, while precipitation is likely to be below-average over southern Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, northeastern Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, northern Kenya, Uganda, the northwester Democratic Republic of the Congo, the southeastern Republic of the Congo, and northern Tanzania. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for western Angola, western Namibia, western Mauritania, and western Senegal. For additional details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East and West Africa.
Figure 3: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely June-July-August (JJA) 2026 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern and northwestern Kazakhstan, southeastern Kyrgyzstan, and eastern Tajikistan. During this time, temperatures are leaning towards above-average over central and eastern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and northern Kyrgyzstan. The long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) does not indicate a strong likelihood of either above or below-average precipitation across the region. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for northern Kazakhstan.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern India, while below-average precipitation is likely over western and southern India, and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern and eastern India, Nepal, and Bhutan. The long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southwestern and northeastern China and southern Japan, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern China and western Mongolia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western and southern China, western Mongolia, the Republic of Korea, and Japan. The long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northern China and western Mongolia. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for northeastern China and eastern Mongolia.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northern Myanmar, the northern Philippines, and southern Australia, while below-average precipitation is likely over central and southern Thailand, central Viet Nam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, eastern Australia, and southern New Zealand. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Myanmar, Laos, northern Thailand, northern and central Viet Nam, the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, northern Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand, while below-average temperatures are likely over southeastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northeastern Australia. The long-term June-July-August 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the northern Philippines, while below-average precipitation is likely over the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, eastern and western Australia, and northern New Zealand. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, central and northern Indonesia, northern Papua New Guinea, southeast Australia, and New Zealand. For additional details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Southeast Asia and the CM4AMIS Outlook for Australia.
Figure 4: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely June-July-August (JJA) 2026 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble