Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 121: Published November 5th 2026
Conditions as of October 28th
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Overview
In northern East Africa, below-average yields have resulted across many areas for main season crops due to prolonged rainfall deficits and high temperatures during the June to September rainfall period. Planting of secondary-season crops is underway in the south under mixed conditions.
In West Africa, agro-climatic conditions remain mostly favourable for ongoing cropping activities despite localized dryness.
In the Middle East & North Africa, land preparation and planting of 2026/27 winter wheat crops is underway and there is some concern in Algeria and Libya due to recent dryness.
In Southern Africa, harvest is underway for winter wheat crops and prospects are mixed with poor conditions across main producing areas of South Africa. Land preparation and planting of main season cereals is underway across much of the region.
In Central & South Asia, 2025/26 spring wheat harvest finalized under favourable conditions and planting of winter wheat is starting in most areas.
In Southeast Asia, conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice and maize in the south, while in the north drought is negatively impacting wet-season crops in Thailand and Cambodia, and heavy rains are negatively impacting parts of the Philippines and Viet Nam.
In Central America & the Caribbean, Postrera season crops are developing with concern due to recent dry conditions in some areas.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is underway in the north under poor conditions due to a delayed and dry June to September rainfall season. Planting of second season cereals is underway in the south, and conditions are mixed, with areas of above-average rainfall and flooding in Somalia and areas of continuing dryness. During the coming weeks, mixed rainfall conditions are forecast in East Africa. However, given the strong El Niño and the positive IOD, long-range model outlooks are highlighting elevated chances of above-normal rainfall from November 2026 to January 2027 rains (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
WEST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals continues along the Sahel and overall cropping prospects remain mostly favourable in non-conflict affected areas and despite localized dryness.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Land preparation and planting for the 2026/27 wheat season is underway and there is some concern due to early season dryness in Algeria and Libya.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Planting for the 2026/27 main season is underway and below-normal rainfall is expected through the start of the season from October 2026 to January 2027 (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). Wheat harvest is underway, and poor conditions have resulted in the main producing region of South Africa due to dryness.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Spring wheat harvesting has finalized under favourable conditions and land preparation, and planting of 2026/27 winter wheat is underway. There are elevated chances of above-normal autumn and winter precipitation across the region associated with El Niño, which is expected to be beneficial for crop establishment (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14).
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In the south, harvesting of dry-season rice is underway and yield conditions are mixed due to below-average rainfall during the growing season. In the north, harvest is underway for wet-season rice and conditions are slightly poor due to prolonged dry spells in Thailand and heavy and persistent rainfall in Cambodia, Viet Nam, and the Philippines.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Dry conditions have continued through the start of the Segunda/Postrera season. Recent rains have brought some relief in areas; however, concern remains.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over the western and southern US, Cuba, western Ecuador, southern Peru, southeast Brazil, central Chile, central west Argentina, Portugal, western Spain, northwestern France, southeastern Poland, southern Belarus, eastern Ukraine, Albania, Greece, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, the southern and central Russian Federation, Syria, northern Iraq, central west Iran, southwestern Algeria, western Morocco, western Tanzania, northeastern Zambia, Malawi, northern Mozambique, Madagascar, central Namibia, western and southern Kazakhstan, eastern Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, eastern Turkmenistan, northern Afghanistan, northeastern India, eastern Bangladesh, Myanmar, northern and central Thailand, Laos, northern Viet Nam, Cambodia, southern China, and northeastern Australia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over Canada, the northern US, southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, western Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, eastern Ecuador, northern and eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, northern Brazil, southern Chile, the northern UK, western Norway, central Finland, Guinea-Bissau, southern Ghana, northeastern Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, northern and western Gabon, the northern Republic of the Congo, northwestern Angola, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, western and northern Kenya, Somalia, eastern Tanzania, southern Iran, southern India, Sri Lanka, northern China, the eastern Russian Federation, southern and central Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 November 2026, issued on 30 October 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: Strengthening El Niño forecast to develop into a very strong event and forecast through April 2027
Strong El Niño conditions are present and strengthening. The event will likely be very strong from September 2026 to January 2027 (>96% chance, according to the October 2026 NOAA ENSO outlook) and rank as one of the strongest since 1950. El Niño conditions are forecast through April 2027 (98% chance).
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in parts of Asia (Central Asia, southwestern Asia, and eastern China), southern North America, southeastern South America, and eastern and southern East Africa. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur across Central America, northern South America, Southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and western and northern Australia.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway. IOD index values from the Bureau of Meteorology have ranged from +0.69 to +0.88 in recent weeks. Positive IOD conditions are forecast through December. A positive IOD typically enhances the drying influence of El Niño in Australia and the Maritime Continent and increases the chances of an above-normal East Africa short rains season.
September 2026 was the second-warmest September for global temperatures. Annual average temperatures for 2026 may be similar to 2024, the current warmest year on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. The very strong El Niño will continue to increase the likelihood of extreme conditions.
During late October through early November 2026, abnormally hot temperatures are forecast in active crop development areas of southern and eastern Mexico, Central America, Haiti, central Brazil, southern West Africa, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, northern Mozambique, northern South Africa, Pakistan, western and southern India, and parts of Southeast Asia (Figure 1).
Figure 1: CHC AgriHeat Forecast for October 29 to November 12, 2026. Forecast 15-day average maximum temperatures are shown where these will be abnormally hot (Tmax > 80th percentile and > 30 °C) and in active crop growing areas. Areas with forecasted below-average rainfall for this period are also identified. Based on the 15-day CHIRTS-GEFS and CHIRPS-GEFS forecasts from October 29, 2026. From UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, main season cereals are mostly in the vegetative to reproductive stage across Sudan, and harvest is underway in South Sudan, Ethiopia (Meher season), and Yemen. Failure conditions have resulted across Sudan while poor conditions have resulted across South Sudan, and much of Ethiopia due to delayed and generally inadequate rainfall outcomes for the June to September season as well as ongoing conflict in Sudan and hotter than normal conditions in South Sudan. The June to September 2026 rainfall season was exceptionally poor in northern and western East Africa and ranked as the driest on record across large areas of South Sudan, southern Sudan, northern and eastern Uganda, western and northwestern Kenya, and parts of southwestern, western, northern and central Ethiopia. There is ongoing concern for second season crops in bimodal regions of southern South Sudan due to antecedent dry and hot conditions that have continued through the beginning of the season.
Across southern East Africa, land preparation and planting is underway for second-season cereals across bimodal areas of Kenya, Somalia (Deyr season), Rwanda, Burundi and the United Republic of Tanzania under mixed conditions, while harvesting of main season cereals is ongoing in unimodal regions of northern Uganda and unimodal regions in the western half of Kenya. Above-normal October to December (OND) 2026 rainfall is forecast in Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, central and southern South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania due to the effects of El Niño and positive IOD, and this also raises the risks of heavy and damaging rainfall events and flooding, especially in the eastern Horn of Africa (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, main season crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and conditions have been downgraded to failure due to delayed onset and below-average rainfall outcomes for the June to September season. While irrigation is typically used along the Nile, the area under production is limited this year, and production expectations are well below the previous year. Additionally, ongoing conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities throughout the country. In South Sudan, second season maize and sorghum crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and there is ongoing concern due to antecedent dry conditions that have continued. As of July, new conflict was reported between the government and opposition forces across the Upper Nile and Jonglei states, which is likely to limit land access and reduce the planted area. In Eritrea, crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage and delayed, and below-average rains continue to impact cropping activities, particularly in the centre and west. In Ethiopia, harvesting is underway for Meher season cereals and conditions are poor due to delayed and significantly below-average rainfall for the June to September Kiremt season, including in the main producing highlands region. Severe rainfall deficits have resulted in drought conditions across northern, eastern, and central regions of the country. Conversely, in the west, recent rainfall has improved cropping conditions; however, concern remains. In Yemen, the harvest is underway for sorghum crops and dry conditions continue to negatively impact crop development.
rop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, planting is underway for the Deyr season and above-average rains have impacted central areas in October and heavy El Niño-induced rains are expected between October and December, increasing the risk of widespread flooding (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Kenya, harvest is underway and finalizing for main season crops under poor conditions across the main producing West and Rift Valley due to severe dry conditions during the June to September rainfall period. In bimodal areas of Kenya, land preparation and planting are underway for second season Short Rains cereals under mixed conditions due to recent dryness, which is forecast to continue into November. However, forecasts indicate the November to January short rains season is expected to be above-average and generally well distributed (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Uganda, second season cereals are in vegetative to reproductive stage and under mixed conditions. In Burundi, planting is underway for Season A maize crops, and there is some concern due to antecedent dry conditions. In the United Republic of Tanzania, planting is underway for second season (Vuli) cereals with some concern due to recent dry conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Alert: Mixed early-season rainfall across East Africa, with localized flooding in Somalia
Rainfall since the beginning of October has been mixed across East Africa. During mid-late September, south-central and southeastern Ethiopia, northeastern and eastern Kenya, and southwestern Somalia received highly above-average rainfall. Temperature data indicate that October 1st to 22nd was much warmer than average across western East Africa. In western Ethiopia, southeastern Sudan, southern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, and western Kenya, the average maximum temperature was highest on record for this period, based on modeled data since 1981.
The October to December rainfall season has begun, with beneficial above-average October 1st to 25th rainfall totals in eastern areas– especially in southeastern Ethiopia and Somalia. The main latitude of heavy rainfall was further north than expected, and Kenyan rains were modest. Above-average rains also occurred in parts of central and northern Uganda, southwestern and south-central South Sudan, southern and central Amhara region of Ethiopia, southwestern Kenya, northwestern Tanzania, and northern Rwanda. Figure 1-left shows an outlook for October 1st to November 10th, 2026, based on preliminary rainfall estimates and a 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from October 26th. Above-average rains were forecast in western, central, and eastern Kenya, northeastern Uganda, southwestern Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and western and northern Tanzania.
According to FAO SWALIM’s October 28th weekly Somalia outlook, recent rainfall has improved agricultural conditions across several southern and central regions supporting planting and early crop development in Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Gedo, and Galgaduud have supported planting and crop establishment. Rainfall received since the beginning of October has also improved pasture availability and replenished water resources over most of Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Sool and the north-western highlands. However, the forecasted warm and dry conditions in northern and central areas would drive declines in surface water. Earlier heavy rains led to localized flooding in Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Baidoa, and Gedo. Flooding remained a concern for riverine farms and villages around Belet Weyne and between Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti until river level peaked, while the Juba River catchment was considered low risk of flooding in the near term due to the forecasted below-average rainfall conditions.
Thus far the mixed conditions during the start of the October to December 2026 season have verified the seasonal forecasts for above-normal rainfall in most of the eastern areas where model probabilities for above-normal OND 2026 were highest. These include southeastern Ethiopia, much of southern and central Somalia and northern-central Somalia, and parts of central-eastern Kenya. The wet conditions were largely driven by episodic rains in September to mid-October 2026, from which preliminary data indicate historical extremes during October 1st to 25th in central Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia. In contrast, northeastern Kenya received below-average rainfall during recent weeks, based on preliminary estimates for October 1st to 25th, after receiving highly above-average rainfall during September.
A notable change in forecast information has been observed recently, coming from the shorter-range subseasonal forecasts that became available after the October initial conditions seasonal rainfall forecasts (released once per month). During mid-late October, subseasonal forecasts have been predicting relatively lackluster rainfall conditions in many equatorial to northern parts of East Africa, for example the forecast below-average rainfall areas shown in Figure 1. The 30-day subseasonal rainfall forecast indicates continuation of drier-than-average conditions in northwestern East Africa, as well as in coastal southeastern Kenya and eastern Tanzania regions. Below-normal rains are also forecast in the eastern bimodal season areas where the very wet conditions occurred in late September to mid-October, including in south-central Somalia and southern and southeastern Ethiopia.
In addition to the ongoing strong El Niño conditions, Indian Ocean dynamics are important for East Africa. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been positive, though as of October 25th, the IOD weekly index declined to a moderately +0.69 °C value. An expanse of extremely warm sea surface temperature anomalies were observed during October across the northern subtropical Indian Ocean, as well as in central equatorial areas, and in waters east of the Horn. In absolute value, these ocean temperatures exceeded 30°C. These extremely warm areas coincided with enhanced storms and rainfall over the eastern Horn and offshore areas of western and northern parts of the Indian Ocean. These conditions did not support an El Niño and positive IOD-like enhancement of onshore low-level winds and moisture flows directed farther into eastern East Africa. This contributed to a drier-than-expected October in eastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania.
During the coming weeks, mixed rainfall conditions are forecast in East Africa. Above-average rainfall is forecast in central and southern Kenya, where 50 to 100 mm anomalies are indicated by the 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for October 29th to November 12th, as well as in Rwanda, Burundi, and western and north-central Tanzania (Figure 1 bottom-left). The 15-day and 30-day forecasts otherwise predict abnormally warm and drier-than average or average conditions in northern and eastern East Africa, enhanced rains mainly over the western-central equatorial Indian Ocean, and a continuation of a moderate IOD with widespread warm sea surface temperature anomalies (Figure 1 bottom-middle). Given the strong El Niño and the positive IOD, the 30-day subseasonal forecast indicating below-normal rainfall, long-range model outlooks highlighting elevated chances of above-normal November 2026 to January 2027 rains (Figure 1 bottom-right), intense rains that can be fueled by warm temperatures when favourable storm conditions occur, and uncertainty in the forecasts, conditions will need to be closely monitored.
Figure 1. Top left: CHC Early Estimates, which compare the October 1st to November 10th, 2026 precipitation totals to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS averages for the same accumulation period. This panel uses CHIRPS3 Preliminary for October 1–25, 2026. A bias-adjusted NCEP GEFS forecast (CHIRPS3-GEFS) is used for the 15-day forecast from October 26. Top middle: Average daily maximum temperatures for October 1 to October 22, 2026. Top right: SubC multi-model 30-day rainfall tercile probability forecast for October 29 to November 27, 2026. Colors show the dominant category forecast by five Subseasonal Consortium models, using terciles identified from 1999–2016 hindcasts. From UCSB CHC SubC. SubC data acquired from the IRI Data Library. Bottom left: Forecast next 15-day precipitation anomaly for October 29 to November 12, from the CHIRPS3-GEFS forecast. Bottom middle: SubC multi-model 30-day surface temperature anomaly forecast from October 29, 2026. Bottom right: ECMWF and NMME multi-model ensemble probability forecast for November 2026-January 2027 rainfall tercile, October initial conditions, from UCSB CHC Seasonal MME.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Along the south of West Africa, harvesting of main season maize and rice is underway in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, northern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Harvesting of second season rice is underway in central and northern Nigeria, while the second season maize continues to develop in southern Côte d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, central and southern Togo, central and southern Benin, southern Nigeria, and southern Cameroon.
Along the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad, while planting of second season rice is underway in Mauritania and Mali.
According to seasonal rainfall products from May through October, some areas across the Sahel have experienced deficits. These deficits have been most severe in the Sahelian zones of Chad, Niger, and Mali, with moderate deficits also observed in Burkina Faso and northeastern Nigeria. As a result, these deficits have adversely affected crop development and pasture conditions, with the most pronounced impacts in Chad and more moderate impacts in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and northeastern Nigeria. However, seasonal performance has been more favourable across West Africa’s Sudano-Guinean zones.
Pastoral conditions in the Sahel remain challenging due to erratic rainfall, significant pasture deficits, and increasing pressure on water resources. These conditions threaten livestock productivity, household incomes, and animal health, raising the risk of an early, severe pastoral lean season, feed shortages, declining animal product quality and quantity, and falling livestock prices due to strategic livestock destocking. In contrast, the Sudano-Guinean zones maintain good biomass availability, although declining surface water levels require continued monitoring.
Additionally, areas affected by persisting conflict, including central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Nigeria, the Lake Chad region in Chad, the Far North and southwestern Cameroon, as well as the Central African Republic, are of concern. In these areas, crop conditions at harvest have been downgraded to poor.
Middle East & North Africa
Across the Middle East and North Africa, land preparation is underway for the 2027 winter wheat crop and planting has started in some areas, with some concern in parts of Algeria and Tunisia due to a dry start of season.
In Morocco, planting of winter cereals is expected to start in November. In Algeria, planting of winter cereals started under well below-average rainfall conditions across the west, and to a lesser extent in the east. In Tunisia, sowings of winter cereals have just started and are expected to finalize by December. Moisture conditions have been below-average, with about a 50% rainfall deficit in the last month and drier than average conditions are forecast in November. In Libya, land preparation and planting are underway and rainfall conditions in the last month have been very favourable in the west and close to average in the east. In Syria, planting of winter barley has started in October under favourable rainfall conditions with above-average rainfall in October and wheat planting will start in November. In Iraq, planting of winter barley is underway while planting of winter wheat should take place in November and December. In Iran, planting of winter wheat and barley is underway under favourable rainfall conditions.
In Egypt, harvest of summer-planted rice and maize crops is underway under favourable conditions while planting of Nili season (Nile flood) rice continues, and overall cropping prospects remain favourable. In southern Iraq, harvest of rice is underway and should conclude in November with average to above-average prospects, while in Iran, rice harvest concluded under favourable conditions.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across Southern Africa, land preparation and planting are underway for the 2026/27 main season. Mixed rainfall conditions were observed during October across the region with above-average rains in central-southern Madagascar and portions of southern Mozambique, northern Zimbabwe, Angola, and other locations. In southeastern South Africa and Lesotho, below-average rainfall occurred and followed above-average rainfall earlier in September. Across much of central Southern Africa, the onset of consistent rainfall typically occurs during November to December. Possible below-normal but mixed rainfall during the next 30 days indicates an erratic onset in central-eastern areas. Models continue to predict moderate-to-high 50 to 80 percent chances of below-normal November 2026 to March 2027 rainfall, associated with the forecast strong to very strong 2026-2027 El Niño conditions across much of the region (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). In addition, elevated fuel prices and increased fertilizer prices are a concern this season, particularly in Malawi and Zimbabwe.
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, main season cereals continue to develop under generally favourable conditions except in the East, where ongoing armed conflict continues to disrupt food production and supply and cause population displacements.
Winter wheat harvest is underway across Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho under mixed conditions, as recent dry conditions have degraded yield prospects in the main producing Western Cape. A bumper crop is expected in Zambia and Zimbabwe due to good antecedent soil moisture and adequate reservoir levels, which have benefitted irrigation water availability. In South Africa, dry conditions from June to August had a negative impact on the winter rainfall region of the Western Cape and below-average yields are expected.
Regional Outlook: Elevated chances of drier and warmer-than-average conditions during next 30 days and throughout the 2026-2027 El Niño
Mixed conditions were observed during recent weeks, from September 26th to October 25th, with above-average rains in central-southern Madagascar and portions of southern Mozambique, northern Zimbabwe, Angola, and other locations (Figure 1 left). In southeastern South Africa and Lesotho, below-average rainfall occurred and followed above-average rainfall earlier in September.
Pre-season rains had led to an early onset in northern and western Zambia, central Namibia, southeastern Mozambique, eastern and central South Africa, Lesotho, eastern Eswatini and central and south-central Madagascar. In parts of central DRC and central-northern Angola, onset was erratic, with delays of up to 30 days in localized areas. Across much of central Southern Africa, the onset of consistent rainfall typically occurs during November to December. Possible below-normal but mixed rainfall during the next 30 days indicates an erratic onset in central-eastern areas.
Hotter-than-normal maximum temperatures are forecast across central and northeastern areas during October 28th to November 11th, consistent with the forecast light rainfall amounts during this period (Figure 1 middle-left). Models point to mixed rainfall conditions and a tendency for overall below-normal rainfall during late October to late November in central, northwestern, and southern areas– including in southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, southern Mozambique, South Africa, and Lesotho (Figure 1 middle-right). Parts of northern Mozambique and eastern Madagascar may receive above-average rainfall. In South Africa's Eastern Cape Province, recent heavy rains have led to localized flooding and disrupted access to essential services.
Models are predicting moderate-to-high 50 to 80 percent chances of below-normal rainfall in November 2026 to March 2027, associated with the forecast strong to very strong 2026-2027 El Niño conditions (Figure 1-right). A combination of below-average rainfall and hotter-than-average temperatures is a hazard to watch for throughout the 2026-2027 season, particularly when rainfed crops are in sensitive establishment and reproductive stages. In line with the forecast strong El Niño conditions and the hotter-than-normal conditions that often occur during these events in central and southern areas, dynamical model forecasts are predicting very high chances (> 70 percent) chances of above 90th percentile temperatures across Southern Africa.
Based on past El Niño events, the odds of moderate-to-severe drought tend to be higher when a negative Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) mode is also present and disrupts moisture patterns in the southwestern Indian Ocean and Mozambique Channel region. September observations and October NMME model forecasts point to negative SIOD conditions during the 2026-2027 season, though a large spread across the model forecasts prevents a confident SIOD outlook.
Figure 1. Left: CHC Early Estimates, which compare the September 26 to October 25, 2026 precipitation totals to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS averages for the same accumulation period. This panel uses CHIRPS3 Preliminary for October 1–25, 2026. Middle-left: CHC AgriHeat forecast for October 29 to November 12, 2026. Forecast 15-day average maximum temperatures are shown where these will be abnormally hot (Tmax > 80th percentile and > 30 °C); overlaid points show where below-average rainfall is forecast during the same period. Middle-right: SubC multi-model 30-day rainfall tercile probability forecast for October 29 to November 27, 2026. Colors show the dominant category forecast by five Subseasonal Consortium models, using terciles identified from 1999–2016 hindcasts. From UCSB CHC SubC. SubC data acquired from the IRI Data Library. Right: November 2026 to March 2027 rainfall tercile probability forecast by WMO multimodel ensemble, based on October initial conditions. From WMO Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central & South Asia, the spring wheat harvest has finalized across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan under favourable conditions and despite earlier concerns due to dryness. In Afghanistan, the wheat harvest is complete under favourable conditions, with wheat production estimated at slightly above average. Planting for the 2026/27 winter wheat season has started in areas of Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan under favourable conditions. Historically, many El Niño events have been associated with above-average precipitation in Afghanistan and parts of Central Asia, and above-average wheat production has been recorded during several of these events. Current forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to favor above-average precipitation across much of Central Asia during the upcoming 2026/27 growing season (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14). If these wetter-than-average conditions materialize during key crop-development periods, improved soil moisture, and irrigation water availability would support favourable crop conditions. This could contribute to higher yields and production for both rainfed and irrigated wheat.
In Afghanistan, land preparation is underway and planting for winter wheat will start from November. The strengthening El Niño event is expected to bring above-average rainfall and improved water availability across the country during the 2026/2027 winter wheat season. However, ongoing insecurity in the Middle East has driven sharp increases in fertilizer prices. Farmers unable to afford adequate inputs for the upcoming 2026/27 winter wheat season are likely to reduce application rates, cultivate smaller areas, or forego planting. In Pakistan, harvest is underway for Kharif season rice and main season maize and millet crops under favourable conditions despite concerns due to earlier dryness and localized floods.
Regional Outlook: Elevated chances of above-normal Fall 2026 to Spring 2027 precipitation
October marks the beginning of the fall precipitation season in Central and Southern Asia, although precipitation amounts for much of the region tend to be small (< 50 mm) for the first month. The start to this year’s season was characterized by above-average precipitation in northern Pakistan, southeastern Afghanistan, and in central areas of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and southern Kazakhstan, and moderate precipitation deficits in portions of southeastern Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, northeastern Afghanistan, and extreme northern Pakistan. Areas in northeastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, and eastern Tajikistan received snow in recent weeks. Below-average precipitation and warmer-than-average, mild temperatures have prevented substantial increases to snow water equivalent (SWE) levels however, leading to moderate early-season SWE deficits in these areas, according to FLDAS data as of October 28th.
Precipitation is expected to increase in November, and an outlook for October 1st to November 10th (Figure 1-left) indicates a continuation of above-average precipitation around south-central Tajikistan to central Turkmenistan. Above-average precipitation may expand into Tajikistan where heavy snow may occur. The 30-day forecast indicates mainly warmer-than-normal temperatures, and in southern areas including central and northern Afghanistan, above-normal precipitation (Figure 1-middle) during October 28th to November 26th. The combination would be beneficial for land preparation for fall season planting of winter wheat.
There are elevated chances of above-normal fall and winter precipitation across the region associated with El Niño. This is also indicated by multi-model ensemble forecasts for November 2026 to March 2027, including the WMO (Figure 1-right), NMME, and the C3S. The WMO forecasts at least a 50% chance of above-normal precipitation across southern and central areas, and higher-than 70% chances in eastern Uzbekistan, western and northern Kyrgyzstan, and south-central and eastern Kazakhstan.
Model forecasts also indicate elevated chances of above-normal precipitation during spring, and that temperatures will likely be above-normal through May 2027.
The above-average precipitation forecast supports overall optimistic outlooks for winter and spring wheat, for spring crop planting activities, and for improved surface water and groundwater levels. During past El Niño years in Afghanistan, rainfed and irrigated wheat production has usually been above average, primarily from an increase in cropped area. Yields have considerably varied. Afghanistan’s groundwater conditions have declined from multi-year precipitation deficits and higher extraction. Above-average temperatures will also increase springtime landslide and flooding risks related to faster snowmelt and higher chances of precipitation in the form of intense rain. Periodic below-average temperatures are still expected during winter, which, combined with heavy snowfall, may put the livestock sector at risk.
Figure 1. A seasonal precipitation outlook and 30-day and 5-month probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Left: A CHC Early Estimate comparing October 1 to November 10, 2026 precipitation totals to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS average. The current season total is based on CHIRPS Preliminary data for October 1 to 25 and a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for October 26 to November 10. Middle: 30-day subseasonal multi-model ensemble probabilistic forecast for precipitation tercile during October 28 to November 24, 2026. From CHC SubC, using data from IRI Data Library. Right: WMO probabilistic forecast for November 2026 to March 2027 precipitation tercile, based on models initialized in October. From the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is underway, and yield conditions are mixed due to below-average rainfall during the growing season. Harvesting of dry-season maize continues under favourable conditions due to sufficient irrigation. Wet-season rice and maize planting is underway under favourable conditions
In northern Southeast Asia, wet-season rice is in the grain filling stage to harvest stage and conditions are slightly poor due to prolonged dry spells in Thailand in July combined with an outbreak of rice blast disease negatively affected rice crops, and in Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines due to heavy and persistant rainfall along with tropical storms in late September and early October which caused flooding in some areas. Wet-season maize harvest is underway, and conditions are slightly poor due to unstable weather and localized heavy rain.
Elsewhere in Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions remain generally favourable.
In Indonesia, harvest is underway for dry-season rice under favourable conditions, and total harvested area has reached 3.74 million hectares, with total production of 19.61 million tons, lower than last season. Wet-season rice planting has begun under favourable conditions, and planting progress is .45 million hectares. Dry-season maize harvest is now in its fourth month, covering approximately 0.91 million hectares, slightly higher than last season.
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Overall yields are projected to be favourable, driven by optimal sunlight and consistent irrigation during the growth season. Wet-season maize planting has begun, with the initial sown area reaching an estimated 0.21 million hectares. Growing conditions remain favourable, supported by adequate irrigation water availability. In Malaysia, harvesting of dry-season rice has almost been completed under favourable conditions due to beneficial weather throughout the season, which supported crop development. Land preparation is underway for wet-season rice, and early planting is progressing in central areas and has reached 15 percent of the total targeted area under favourable conditions. Harvesting is underway for dry-season maize wet-season maize planted earlier is expected to be germination to vegetative stage under favourable conditions. In Brunei, harvesting of dry-season rice is almost complete and current yields are poor due to below-average precipitation throughout the dry season and pest impacts. Wet-season rice planting is underway under favourable conditions despite low precipitation. In the Philippines, wet-season rice harvest is finalized for crops planted in April to May and production declines compared to last year due to heavy rains and strong winds from the enhanced southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones during the reproductive stage. Meanwhile, wet-season rice planted from July to August is currently in the tillering to panicle forming stage and the overall condition of wet-season rice is rated slightly poor due to ongoing unfavourable weather. Wet-season maize planted from April to June is currently in its ripening to harvesting stage and conditions are slightly poor as unfavourable weather conditions during the critical reproductive and grain-filling stages are expected to reduce yields to 3.00 metric tons per hectare. In Thailand, wet-season rice is currently in the grain filling stage to harvesting stage. Overall rice production is expected to decline mainly due to reduction in planted area and lower levels of crop maintenance. These factors are largely driven by low rice prices and rising costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. In addition, in late September and early October, heavy and persistent rainfall along with tropical storms, caused flooding in some rice fields in the Central, Eastern and Western regions and damage assessments are ongoing. Wet-season maize is currently in the harvesting stage, with approximately 50% of the total planted area harvested. The harvesting area is expected to decrease compared with the previous year, mainly due to rising production costs. Both maize yield and total production are expected to decline compared with the previous year. Below-average rainfall and elevated temperatures during the flowering stage in July and August adversely affected crop growth and grain setting. In northern Viet Nam, wet-season rice is in the grain-filling stage, and harvesting is underway in some provinces. Production is expected to be lower than last year, mainly due to a reduction in planted area. In addition, flooding and waterlogging earlier in the season may have adversely affected crop development and yields. Harvesting of wet-season maize has been completed and yields are expected to be higher than last year, supported by favourable weather conditions throughout the growing season. In southern Viet Nam, harvesting of summer-autumn rice is complete with the average yield estimated at 5.9 tons per hectare, up 0.7 tons per hectare from last year. Meanwhile, the other wet-season rice crops, including autumn-winter and seasonal rice, are at the grain-filling to harvesting stages. Weather conditions are expected to remain generally favourable for crop growth and development. Harvesting of wet-season maize is nearing completion and yields are expected to be higher than last year, as favourable weather conditions have helped reduce pest and disease problems. In lowland Laos, wet-season rice is in the grain-filling stage to early harvesting. The final planted area has reached 819 thousand hectares. Early wet-season rice harvesting is underway and the average yield is expected to be 3.98 tons per hectare, slightly below last year due to heavy rainfall caused by a tropical cyclone this season. Harvesting is underway for wet-season maize and the final planted area is expected to exceed 48 thousand hectares, with the average yield expected to be 4.8 tons per hectare, a slight decrease compared to last year due to flood impacts in lowland areas. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice has been completed under favourable conditions with 5.75 million hectares accounting for 95.4 percent of the national plan, despite monsoon floods across widespread areas, especially in the Delta region. Harvest of early wet-season rice has started and about 80 thousand hectares of the wet-season rice have been harvested with a yield of 4.33 tons per hectare, similar to last year. Harvest of wet-season maize is underway under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, harvesting of early wet-season rice is underway and the yield is estimated to be around 4.16 tons per hectare. Flooding has affected agricultural crops across 15 provinces, impacting 228 thousand hectares of paddy, which is 7.2 percent of the total rice area. While 63 percent of early rice was harvested, and production is expected to be 7 percent lower than last year. Harvesting is underway for wet-season maize, and conditions remain favourable due to favourable weather conditions and sufficient water supply. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season rice (40 percent of annual rice output) and Yala season maize (10 percent of annual maize output) is complete under favourable conditions. Planting is starting for Maha season maize and rice under favourable conditions. In Nepal, rice continues to develop under favourable conditions and despite earlier dry conditions. In Bangladesh, Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice production) continues under favourable conditions. While the flooding in May and July resulted in localized losses for newly planted crops and damaged seedbeds, most affected areas were replanted, and weather conditions remain favourable across most producing areas. Fertilizer shortages are continuing across the country and remain a concern for the ongoing cropping seasons. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, harvest is complete for rice crops and overall conditions are favourable.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 (Primera season) conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, planting is underway for the Segunda/Postrera season. Extended dry spells, high temperatures, and erratic rains have impacted the start of the season; however, recent rains in late September and October have benefitted crops in some areas. In addition, high fertilizer prices are also expected to increase production costs for the upcoming Postrera season in some areas and continue to drive up costs of transportation, electricity, and water. In Haiti, planting of Été season maize and bean crops continues, and recent rains have benefitted crops and helped to reduce rainfall deficits. In Cuba, planting and development of main season rice continue, and conditions are favourable despite persistent energy shortages this year that hampered plantings.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Erratic rainfall to be followed by warmer and drier-than-normal conditions
Following the extremely poor performance of Primera 2026 rainfall season, there were substantial rainfall deficits between August 1st and September 20th, across much of Guatemala, southern and central Honduras, western Nicaragua, as well as in parts of El Salvador and southern Haiti (Figure 1-left). Rainfall totals were average to above average in northern Honduras, central and northern Haiti, eastern and southeastern Nicaragua, and parts of northern Guatemala. Hot days occurred more often and over more locations than usual, in Haiti and in Central America’s Pacific coast and Gulf of Fonseca areas, and in northwestern Guatemala, northern El Salvador, eastern Honduras, southwestern and northeastern Nicaragua. Average maximum temperatures for that period were record-high in Haiti and western Central America (Figure 1 middle-left).
SubC models and the ECMWF forecast a transition from near-average to above-average rainfall (e.g. in Guatemala) during late September–early October to increasingly drier conditions after that, in Central America. Heavy rains are possible during late September over portions of northwest Nicaragua and the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, according to the NWS National Hurricane Center, and these will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. During mid-September, central regions of Honduras were impacted by flooding from intense rainfall. The SubC ensemble largely maintains a drier-than-average outlook in the southern Caribbean region, indicating possibility of rainfall deficits developing in eastern and southern Central America and southern Haiti from late September through October.
Below-normal October to December 2026 rainfall is confidently forecast by the September outlooks from C3S, NMME, and WMO multimodel ensembles, in Honduras, Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador, and southern Central America (> 70 percent chances) (Figure 1-right). Above-average temperatures are forecast across the region throughout late September to mid-October, based on the September 24th SubC. A high likelihood of temperatures reaching above 90th percentile levels will continue during October to December 2026. The outlooks correspond to forecasts of very strong El Niño conditions and a below-normal Atlantic Hurricane season.
Figure 1. Season precipitation and average maximum temperature anomalies, and 15-day and 3-month forecasts of precipitation anomalies.
Left: A CHC Early Estimate, which compares August 1st to September 20th, 2026 precipitation total to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS average for the same accumulation period. This uses CHIRPS3 Preliminary for September 1–20, 2026. Middle-Left: Average daily maximum temperatures for August 1st to September 19th, 2026. Middle-Right: Forecast next 15-day precipitation anomaly for September 24th to October 8th, from the CHIRPS3-GEFS forecast, which is a bias-corrected (to CHIRPS v3) version of the NCEP GEFS ensemble mean. Right: Multi-model ensemble forecast for the probability of below-normal, normal, and above-normal rainfall for October to December, 2026, rainfall based on September initial conditions, ECMWF SEAS5 and 6 NMME models, and a 1991-2020 baseline of model hindcasts. NMME data is from the IRI Data Library; ECMWF data is from Copernicus. Figure from CHC ECMWF and NMME.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published September 3rd, 2026.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.