Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 33: Published June 5th, 2025
Conditions as of May 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of May are currently positive for maize and rice, while mixed for wheat and soybeans. For wheat, dry conditions remain in parts of Central Asia, China, East Africa, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and North America. For maize, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some areas of concern in Central America, Eastern Europe, South America, and Sub-Saharan Africa. For rice, conditions are favourable, albeit with some areas in the Republic of Korea and Central America. For soybeans, harvesting is continuing in Argentina as it wraps up in Brazil and South Africa. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is expanding ahead of the normal pace. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely through October 2025 (98 to 54 percent chances), according to the CPC/IRI outlook. There is limited long-range ENSO predictability at this time of the year. Currently, the CPC/IRI anticipates neutral ENSO conditions near the end of 2025 to early 2026. La Niña conditions are also possible. The forecast chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Temperature forecasts for June indicate the potential for heat waves in southern Europe and northwestern Africa, as well as above-average temperatures in eastern Europe, western Russia, the western United States, Canada, Central America, and other regions.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks, see page 6.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.
In North America, winter wheat harvest in the US is beginning in the southern plains under mostly favourable conditions. Spring wheat sowing is continuing. In Canada, spring wheat sowing is progressing across the Prairies as winter wheat develops in the east. In Mexico, harvest is ongoing under poor conditions in the north due to reduced availability of irrigation water. In Europe, dry weather in the EU over parts of northern and central Europe is of concern as winter wheat enters the key flowering stage. In the United Kingdom, an abnormally dry spring has begun to threaten crop yields. In Türkiye, prolonged dry weather has likely reduced yield prospects, particularly in Southeastern Anatolia. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat remains under mixed conditions in some areas as spring wheat sowing progresses. In Ukraine, rainfall during May has supported crops in the central and western regions, however, frosts and a prolonged drought are negatively impacting crops in the southern and eastern regions. In Central Asia, winter wheat in Kazakhstan is developing as spring wheat sowing begins in the main producing northern regions. Winter wheat continues to develop in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan under favourable conditions. Additionally, spring wheat planting continues in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia with dry concerns. In South Asia, the harvest is wrapping up in India under favourable conditions. In Pakistan, harvesting is continuing with concerns in the barani area of northern Punjab due to drought. In Nepal, harvesting is wrapping up. In East Asia, conditions are generally favourable in China for winter and spring wheat, however, recent hot and dry weather may negatively influence yields across several provinces. In MENA, wheat harvesting is underway. Yields are expected to decline in Morocco, northwestern Algeria, northeastern Libya, Lebanon, Syria, northern Iraq, and central and eastern Iran. Ongoing conflict disruptions contribute to poor yields in Lebanon and Syria. In Sub-Saharan Africa, sowing is beginning in Ethiopia under dry conditions alongside ongoing socio-economic concerns in the north. Sowing is beginning in South Africa under dry conditions in the main producing Western Cape. In South America, sowing is beginning in Argentina and Brazil. In Chile, conditions are favourable. In Oceania, sowing is ramping up in Australia, however, more rainfall is needed in South Australia and Victoria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.
In South America, the spring-planted crop (smaller season) in Brazil is being harvested under favourable conditions, except in the Northeast region. The summer-planted crop (larger season) continues to develop, with harvest just beginning. In Argentina, the harvest is progressing slowly, hindered by recent rainfall, with highly variable yields for both the early-planted crop (usually larger season) and the late-planted crop (usually smaller season). In Central America & the Caribbean, the harvest is underway in Mexico for the Autumn-Winter crop (smaller season), with poor yields anticipated. Sowing for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season) progresses under dry conditions in the north and northwest. In Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras, sowing of the Primera season is beginning under dry conditions. In Haiti, Printemps crops are under hot and dry conditions. In North America, sowing and emergence in the US are ahead of average. In Canada, sowing is progressing under favourable conditions. In Europe, sowing is nearing completion under mostly favourable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is concluding, with concerns in the eastern and southern regions due to drought and frosts. In the Russian Federation, sowing is progressing. In Asia, sowing continues in the northeast region of China. In India, harvesting is concluding for the Rabi crop (smaller season). In Bangladesh, sowing continues for the summer/Kharif season crop (smaller season). In Pakistan, sowing is continuing under favourable conditions. In Nepal, the main season crop is favourable. In Sri Lanka, the sowing of the Yala season (smaller season) is continuing. In DPRK, conditions are favourable. In East Africa, Belg season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage in Ethiopia, while sowing of main season crops is underway in Ethiopia (Meher season) and South Sudan. Across southern East Africa, ongoing dry concerns remain in parts of western and northwestern Uganda, eastern Kenya, most of Somalia, and western Rwanda. In West Africa, sowing of main-season crops is ramping up in bimodal and Soudano-Guinean zones in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Along the Sahel, sowing of main season crops is underway in Guinea-Bissau, Mali, western Burkina Faso, and Chad. In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is wrapping up across all regions, including Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini. In South Africa, harvesting is ending; however, some areas have been negatively impacted by waterlogging. Drier than normal conditions are expected to result in yield declines across eastern and southern Zambia, southern Malawi, and northern Mozambique.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.
In East Asia, conditions in China are favourable for the early double-crop rice (smallest season) in the reproductive stages and for single-season rice (largest season). In the Republic of Korea, sowing is ongoing, albeit delayed by low temperatures and to prevent damage from high temperatures during the heading period. In Central & South Asia, harvesting in India of the Rabi and Summer crops is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable as the harvest of the Boro crop (largest season) wraps up, and the sowing of the Aus crop (smallest season) finishes. In Sri Lanka, sowing of the Yala season crops is continuing under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, the wet-season rice harvest in Indonesia is progressing with good yields, as the sowing of dry-season rice continues with sufficient irrigation water availability. In Malaysia, the harvest of wet-season rice is wrapping up as sowing of dry-season rice continues. In Brunei, sowing of dry-season rice is continuing. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring season) is under favourable conditions as harvesting wraps up in the south. Sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) is at its peak in the south. In Thailand, the harvesting of dry-season rice wraps up as the sowing of wet-season rice begins. In the Philippines, dry-season rice harvest wraps up under favourable conditions as wet-season rice sowing begins. In Myanmar, the harvesting of dry-season rice continues as the sowing of wet-season rice begins. In Cambodia, sowing of wet-season rice is progressing faster than normal. In the Americas, harvesting is wrapping up in Brazil with above-average yields. In the US, sowing is wrapping under favourable conditions. In Cuba, harvesting of second-season rice is continuing as the sowing of the main season begins under hot and dry conditions. In Haiti, Printemps crops are under hot and dry conditions. In Honduras, sowing of main-season rice crops is continuing under mixed conditions. In Europe, sowing is ongoing in the EU and Türkiye under favourable conditions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with poor conditions in central Mozambique due to drought and Cyclone Jude, and the ongoing conflict in Mali.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.
In South America, the harvest in Brazil is concluding in the south region with poor yields, particularly in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, due to insufficient rainfall and high temperatures. In Argentina, the harvest is progressing for both the early-planted (generally larger season) and late-planted (generally smaller season) crops; however, recent heavy rains, especially in northeastern Buenos Aires, have hindered progress.
In Africa, the harvest in South Africa is finishing under mixed conditions due to a delayed start to the season and excessive rainfall at the end of the season. In North America, sowing and emergence in the US are ahead of average in most states due to warm and dry weather during May. A decline in the total sown area is anticipated compared to last year. In Canada, sowing is progressing with an expected slight decrease in total sown area compared to last year. In Europe, sowing is progressing, albeit under dry soil moisture conditions in Austria, France, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. In Ukraine, sowing is progressing, albeit with challenges from the ongoing war and soil moisture deficits in the eastern and southern regions. In the Russian Federation, sowing is progressing under mixed conditions due to low soil moisture levels in the Central district. In Asia, sowing is progressing in China under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely through October 2025 (98 to 54 percent chances), according to the CPC/IRI outlook. There is limited long-range ENSO predictability at this time of the year. Currently, the CPC/IRI anticipates neutral ENSO conditions near the end of 2025 to early 2026. La Niña conditions are also possible. The forecast chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Global temperatures for April 2025 were the second warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Impactful heat waves continued in India and Pakistan during May, and hotter and drier than normal conditions rapidly reduced snowpack in Afghanistan.
Temperature forecasts for June indicate the potential for heat waves in southern Europe and northwestern Africa, as well as above-average temperatures in eastern Europe, western Russia, the western United States, Canada, Central America, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the northern Canadian Prairies and the southern and eastern US, while below-average precipitation over the western US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the southern Canadian Prairies, eastern Canada, the US Midwest, and the southwest. The long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning towards below-average precipitation in western Canada and the northwestern and central Plains of the US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the US and Canada. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the United States.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation in northeastern and southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and southern Honduras. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over Mexico, Guatemala, EL Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, central Costa Rica, and eastern Panama. The long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation over eastern Cuba and Haiti. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central America & the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 June 2025, issued on 30 May 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southeast Brazil, while below-average over southern Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, northern and northeast Brazil, eastern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and northern and southern Argentina. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northwestern Colombia, most of Brazil, and southwestern Bolivia. The long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation over Chile and western Argentina. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, eastern Ecuador, central and eastern Peru, western Bolivia, and northern and central Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above -average precipitation over the central Russian Federation, while below-average over Ireland, the United Kingdom, southern Norway, southern Sweden, eastern and northern Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, northern Germany, northern Poland, Lithuania, western Belarus, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, western Romania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, southern Greece, Türkiye, the southern Russian Federation, Georgia Armenia, and Azerbaijan. During this time, temperatures are leaning towards above-average over parts of Ireland, the United Kingdom, Portugal, Spain, France, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, Greece, southern Türkiye, and most of the Russian Federation. The long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, the western Russian Federation, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria, northern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average across all of Europe. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 June 2025, issued on 30 May 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northwest Iran, northern Iraq, northern Algeria, and northern Tunisia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Syria, Iraq, northern Saudi Arabia, and western Iran, while below-average over northern Yemen. The long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Yemen and southern Saudi Arabia. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region except for western Yemen and southern Morocco.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over central Niger, central Chad, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, northern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, the central Democratic Republic of the Congo. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Mauritania, southern Sudan, northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and central Kenya, while below-average over eastern Niger, northern Chad, southeast Tanzania, northern Mozambique, Botswana, and central South Africa. For the long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over Niger, Chad, Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, northern Kenya, and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, while below-average over Mauritania, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern and central Nigeria, Cameroon, western Central African Republic, Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern Somalia, and southern Namibia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Mauritania, Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, central Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, northern Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern and southern Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, coastal Mozambique, and Madagascar. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for East and West Africa.
Figure 3: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely June-July-August (JJA) 2025 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northcentral Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and northeastern Afghanistan, while likely below-average precipitation over eastern Kazakhstan and western Turkmenistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and northern Turkmenistan. The long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region, except in northern Kazakhstan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northeastern Pakistan, northern and western India, western Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northwestern Pakistan, northern and central India, Nepal, Bhutan, northern Bangladesh, and central Sri Lanka. The long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Pakistan, India, and Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern and southern Pakistan, coastal India, and Sri Lanka. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Republic of Korea and southern Japan, while below-average over western and central Mongolia and northwestern and central China. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. The long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over western China. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over central Viet Nam, southern Laos, northern Cambodia, and northeastern Australia, while below-average over northern Myanmar, eastern Malaysia, Brunei, northern Indonesia, and southeastern Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, northern Thailand, northern Laos, northern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea, while below-average over Cambodia and southern Viet Nam. The long-term June-July-August 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the central and southern Philippines, Indonesia, eastern Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea, while a leaning towards below-average over southern Viet Nam, western Thailand, Cambodia, and central Myanmar. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for northeastern Australia. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Australia.
Figure 4: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely June-July-August (JJA) 2025 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble