Global Crop Monitor
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No. 34: Published July 3rd, 2025
Conditions as of June 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of June are currently positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, conditions have improved in Europe, China, and in parts of the US, while concerns remain in parts of Central Asia, northeastern Europe, the United States, and Ukraine. For maize, conditions are generally favourable as the harvest progresses in the southern hemisphere and sowing wraps up in the northern hemisphere. For rice, conditions are favourable, albeit with some minor spots of concern in Central America, Central Asia, and northern West Africa. For soybeans, harvesting is wrapping up in Argentina as sowing wraps up in the northern hemisphere. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (96 to 47 percent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). Forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions could potentially occur during October to January (40 percent chance), while the chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Impactful heat waves have recently impacted the central and eastern United States, western Europe, and India. Temperature forecasts indicate the potential for abnormally hot conditions during late June and July in parts of central and northeastern Asia, eastern Canada, southern and eastern Europe, Japan, the southern and central United States, and other regions.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks, see page 6.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of June 28th.
In North America, winter wheat harvest is progressing in the US under mostly favourable conditions, while dry weather is a concern for spring wheat in Montana. In Canada, conditions are generally favourable for both winter and spring wheat. In Europe, conditions have improved with exceptionally high expectations in Bulgaria, the Iberian Peninsula, and Romania. In the United Kingdom, conditions are highly variable due to patchy rainfall received at the beginning of June. In Türkiye, harvest is beginning under mixed conditions due to prolonged dry weather in Southeastern Anatolia. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat harvest is beginning in the south under generally favourable conditions. Spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Ukraine, harvest is beginning in the far south, with conditions favourable, albeit with some overly dry areas and the ongoing war. In Central Asia, winter wheat harvesting in Kazakhstan has begun under favourable conditions as spring wheat sowing is wrapping up. Winter wheat harvesting is underway in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan under favourable conditions. Spring wheat continues to develop in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan despite concerns about dry conditions. In South Asia, harvesting is wrapping up in Pakistan under favourable conditions. In Nepal, harvest is wrapping up. In East Asia, the harvest of winter wheat in China is wrapping up under mostly favourable conditions, despite the earlier hot and dry weather. In MENA, wheat harvesting is wrapping up, with poor yields reported across Morocco, northwest and north-central Algeria, northeastern Libya, Lebanon, Syria, and northern Iraq. Ongoing conflict disruptions have contributed to poor yields in Lebanon and Syria. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are generally favourable across Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In Ethiopia, dry conditions exist alongside ongoing socio-economic concerns in the north. Sowing is continuing in South Africa under favourable conditions due to above-average rainfall since early June in the Western Cape. In South America, sowing is progressing in Argentina at a good pace, supported by recent rainfall and good soil moisture. In Brazil, sowing is progressing slowly in the southern region due to excess rainfall. A decrease in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Chile, conditions are favourable. In Oceania, recent rainfall in Australia has supported crop establishment in South Australia and western Victoria; however, additional rainfall will be needed to support further development.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of June 28th.
In South America, the harvest of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) in Brazil is wrapping up in the Northeast region with below-average yields. The summer-planted crop (larger season) is beginning the harvest under favourable conditions, with a total sown area increase compared to last season. In Argentina, the harvest for both the early-planted crop (usually larger season) and the late-planted crop (usually smaller season) is progressing slowly due to excessive soil moisture, albeit with yields close to the ten-year average. In Central America & the Caribbean, the harvest continues in Mexico for the Autumn-Winter crop (smaller season), with poor yields. Sowing for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season) continues under improved conditions. In Cuba, sowing of the main season crop is ongoing under dry conditions. In Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, sowing and development of the Primera season is ongoing under favourable conditions. In Haiti, Printemps crops are under favourable conditions. In North America, conditions are favourable in the US, albeit with some dryness developing in the central Corn Belt region. In Canada, sowing is wrapping up, albeit with delays in Quebec. In Europe, conditions are favourable in the EU with good yield prospects, particularly in southeastern Europe. In Ukraine, conditions are favourable, albeit with low soil moisture levels in the east and the ongoing war. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed as drought remains a concern in some western producing regions. In Asia, sowing is continuing in China under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, the Kharif season crop (smaller season) is being harvested. In Pakistan, sowing is continuing. In Nepal, the sowing of the main season crop continues under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, the Yala season crop (smaller season) is under favourable conditions. In DPRK, conditions are favourable. In East Africa, harvesting of the Belg season crop is underway in Ethiopia, with poor outcomes expected in the north and centre. Conditions are mixed for the main season crops in Ethiopia (Meher season), South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda due to delayed and limited rains. In West Africa, sowing and development of main-season crops are ongoing in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, central Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Conflict remains an issue in central Mali and northern and northeastern Nigeria. In Southern Africa, harvesting is wrapping up for the main season crops, with yield declines expected in parts of Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, and South Africa due to a combination of drier-than-average conditions, storm impacts, and conflict.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of June 28th.
In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China as the harvesting of the early double-crop (smallest season) begins alongside the sowing of the late double-crop (medium season). Single-season rice (largest season) continues to develop under favourable conditions. In the Republic of Korea, sowing is wrapping up under improved conditions. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, sowing continues under favourable conditions. In Central & South Asia, conditions are favourable in Bangladesh for the Aus crop (smallest season) in the flowering and grain-filling stages and for the sowing of the Aman crop (medium season). In Sri Lanka, Yala season crops (smallest season) are in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions. In Nepal, harvesting is wrapping up for the second season of rice. In Pakistan, sowing is beginning. In Southeast Asia, the wet-season rice harvest in Indonesia is wrapping up with good yields and an increase in total harvested area compared to last year due to sufficient water and sunlight. Sowing of dry-season rice continues, albeit at a low level due to the extended wet-season harvest. In Malaysia, sowing of dry-season rice is wrapping up. In Brunei, sowing of dry-season rice is continuing under dry conditions. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring season) is being harvested in the north as the sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) begins. In the south, sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) continues. In Thailand, sowing of wet-season rice is continuing, supported by ample rainfall; however, there is an expected decrease in total sown area compared to last season. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions with an expected increase in total sown area. In Myanmar, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion as the sowing of wet-season rice slowly continues. In Cambodia, sowing of wet-season rice is progressing faster than last year due to an early start to the rainy season and adequate precipitation. In the Americas, conditions are favourable in the US. In Cuba, harvesting of second-season rice is wrapping up as the sowing of main-season rice begins under dry conditions. In Haiti, Printemps crops are under favourable conditions. In Honduras, dry conditions are persisting. In Europe, conditions are favourable in the EU and Türkiye. In MENA, conditions are favourable in Iran despite limited rainfall. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are generally favourable in Burundi, Madagascar, and Tanzania. Dry conditions remain in Mozambique.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of June 28th.
In South America, the harvest is wrapping up in Argentina for both the early-planted (generally larger season) and late-planted (generally smaller season) crops, albeit delayed in Buenos Aires due to earlier heavy rains. Yields are near average for both crops owing to timely rains since February. In North America, conditions are favourable in the US as sowing wraps up and emergence is on par with the five-year average. In Canada, sowing is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions, albeit with cold, wet weather in Quebec delaying sowing and hampering emergence. In Europe, sowing has wrapped up in the EU under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is complete with a slight reduction in total area compared to last year. Conditions are generally favourable; however, the ongoing war and soil moisture deficits in parts of the eastern and southern regions remain a concern. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed due to low soil moisture levels in parts of the Central and Southern districts. In Africa, sowing is ongoing in Nigeria under favourable conditions in the central and southern regions. However, prolonged conflict and socio-economic issues remain an issue in the north and northeast regions. In Asia, conditions are favourable in Cina as sowing continues.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (96 to 47 percent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). Forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions could potentially occur during October to January (40 percent chance), while the chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Global temperatures for May 2025 were the second warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin.
Impactful heat waves have recently impacted the central and eastern United States, western Europe, and India. Temperature forecasts indicate the potential for abnormally hot conditions during late June and July in parts of central and northeastern Asia, eastern Canada, southern and eastern Europe, Japan, the southern and central United States, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation in parts of the Ohio Valley in the US, while below-average precipitation over western Canada, the northwest, and the southern Great Plains in the US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western and eastern Canada and the western and eastern US. The long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning towards below-average precipitation over the Prairies in Canada and the northwest and the northern Great Plains of the US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the US and Canada, except for the US southeast. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the United States.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northwestern Mexico, while below-average precipitation is expected over northeast and southeast Mexico, Haiti, northern Guatemala, and western Honduras. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over northern and southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. The long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Costa Rica and Panama, while below-average over eastern Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and northern Honduras. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico, Costa Rica, and Panama. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central America & the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 July 2025, issued on 27 June 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northwest Brazil, while below-average over eastern Venezuela, central Peru, eastern Bolivia, southern and central Brazil, Paraguay, southern Chile, and southern Argentina. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of Brazil, southern Peru, and southwestern Bolivia. The long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation over Chile and western Argentina. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, eastern Ecuador, central and eastern Peru, western Bolivia, northern and northeastern Brazil, and southern Argentina.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Ireland, the United Kingdom, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, southern Denmark, Germany, Poland, central Lithuania, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, northern Switzerland, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, southern Belarus, southern and eastern of the Russian Federation, northern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over parts of northern Ireland, the southern United Kingdom, France, eastern Belgium, Germany, western Poland, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, and southern Türkiye, while below-average over Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, and the eastern Russian Federation. The long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation most of Europe, except for Portugal, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, and Greece. During the same period, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across all of Europe. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 July 2025, issued on 27 June 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northwest Iran, Yemen, and Oman. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over parts of Morocco, southern Algeria, Tunisia, central Egypt, Lebanon, and southern Iran, while below-average over northern Iran. The long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely average precipitation for most of the region. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southeast Mauritania, eastern and southern Mali, central Niger, northern Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, southeastern South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, central Republic of the Congo, central and northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and northern Rwanda, while below-average over Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, and east-central Democratic Republic of the Congo. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Niger, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, central Tanzania, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, eastern Botswana, central Namibia, eastern South Africa, and Madagascar, while below-average over Mali, Burkina Faso, Liberia, southern Niger, northern Nigeria, southern Chad, southern Sudan, northwestern South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Gabon, and east central Democratic Republic of the Congo. For the long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over Niger, Chad, Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, northern Tanzania, and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, while below-average over Serra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern and central Nigeria, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Somalia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, northern Ghana, Togo, central Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, northern Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, eastern and central Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern and southern Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, coastal Mozambique, Madagascar, and southwest South Africa. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for East Africa.
Figure 3: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely July-August-September (JAS) 2025 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and western Turkmenistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across Kyrgyzstan. The long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern Kyrgyzstan, with a leaning towards below-average over eastern and western Kazakhstan. At the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region, except in northern Kazakhstan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northwestern India, while below-average over southern India and northern Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Pakistan, northwest and south India, Nepal, Bhutan, northern Bangladesh, and southern Sri Lanka. The long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Pakistan, India, and western Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Pakistan, coastal India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. For further details, see the CM4AMIS regional outlook for India and the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over western China, while below-average precipitation over northwest and central China, central Mongolia, the Republic of Korea, and central Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. The long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over western China. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over eastern Vietnam, eastern Thailand, southern Philippines, eastern Malaysia, central Indonesia, and eastern Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Myanmar, northern and central Thailand, Laos, northern and central Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand, while below-average over southern Cambodia. The long-term July-August-September 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Indonesia, eastern Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea, while a leaning towards below-average over southern Viet Nam, southern Cambodia, and the central Philippines. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for Australia.
Figure 4: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely July-August-September (JAS) 2025 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble