Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 35: Published August 7th, 2025
Conditions as of July 28th
To access all reports, please visit the Archive.
Please visit the Referencing Guidelines page for information on how to cite the Crop Monitor reports and products.
Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of July are currently positive for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, winter wheat harvesting is underway in the northern hemisphere with some concern in parts of Europe and MENA, while spring wheat develops with concerns in North America and Central Asia. Conditions are favourable in the southern hemisphere. For maize, conditions are generally favourable as the harvest wraps up in the southern hemisphere; however, spots of concern are developing in Europe. For rice, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some delays in the transplanting of the Kharif crop in parts of India and excessive rainfall in the Republic of Korea. For soybeans, conditions are generally favourable in the northern hemisphere, although there are concerns in southeastern Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (87 to 43 percent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). Forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions could potentially occur during October to January (up to a 49 percent chance), while the chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may develop during August to October 2025, based on observations during late July and forecasts from Copernicus Climate Change Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts (~ 50 to 60 percent chances). Negative IOD conditions typically lead to below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa and above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In North America, winter wheat harvest is progressing in the US under mostly favourable conditions, while dry weather is a concern for spring wheat in Montana. In Canada, conditions are generally favourable for both winter and spring wheat. In Europe, conditions have improved with exceptionally high expectations in Bulgaria, the Iberian Peninsula, and Romania. In the United Kingdom, conditions are highly variable due to patchy rainfall received at the beginning of June. In Türkiye, harvest is beginning under mixed conditions due to prolonged dry weather in Southeastern Anatolia. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat harvest is beginning in the south under generally favourable conditions. Spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Ukraine, harvest is beginning in the far south, with conditions favourable, albeit with some overly dry areas and the ongoing war. In Central Asia, winter wheat harvesting in Kazakhstan has begun under favourable conditions as spring wheat sowing is wrapping up. Winter wheat harvesting is underway in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan under favourable conditions. Spring wheat continues to develop in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan despite concerns about dry conditions. In South Asia, harvesting is wrapping up in Pakistan under favourable conditions. In Nepal, harvest is wrapping up. In East Asia, the harvest of winter wheat in China is wrapping up under mostly favourable conditions, despite the earlier hot and dry weather. In MENA, wheat harvesting is wrapping up, with poor yields reported across Morocco, northwest and north-central Algeria, northeastern Libya, Lebanon, Syria, and northern Iraq. Ongoing conflict disruptions have contributed to poor yields in Lebanon and Syria. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are generally favourable across Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In Ethiopia, dry conditions exist alongside ongoing socio-economic concerns in the north. Sowing is continuing in South Africa under favourable conditions due to above-average rainfall since early June in the Western Cape. In South America, sowing is progressing in Argentina at a good pace, supported by recent rainfall and good soil moisture. In Brazil, sowing is progressing slowly in the southern region due to excess rainfall. A decrease in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Chile, conditions are favourable. In Oceania, recent rainfall in Australia has supported crop establishment in South Australia and western Victoria; however, additional rainfall will be needed to support further development.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In South America, harvesting in Brazil is ongoing for the summer-planted crop (larger season) with yields above the five-year average in most regions. In Argentina, harvesting of the late-planted crop (usually smaller season) is wrapping up, albeit delayed due to frequent rainfall, particularly in Buenos Aires. In Central America & the Caribbean, sowing of the main season crop in Cuba is continuing. Hot and dry weather continues to impact Guatemala and southern Honduras, and most areas are seeing an increase in pests and diseases. In Haiti, Printemps crops are being harvested as the sowing of the Été season begins. In North America, while temperatures in the US have been above-average, plentiful rains have helped ensure favourable crop conditions. In Canada, conditions are favourable in Ontario, while mixed in Quebec due to an overly wet season. In Mexico, harvesting wraps up for the Autumn-Winter crop (smaller season), with poor yields due to prolonged drought in the main producing northwest region. Sowing is progressing for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season) with ample rainfall over the southern plateau corn belt. In Europe, persistent hot and dry weather in the southeastern EU has reduced yield expectations. In Ukraine, hot and dry weather is negatively affecting crop development in the central, eastern, and southern regions. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed as hot and dry weather remains a concern in some western and southern areas. In Asia, the harvest in China of spring-planted crops is beginning as the summer-planted crops continue to develop. In India, sowing of the Kharif crop (larger season) is progressing under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvest is wrapping up for the Kharif season crop (smaller season). In Pakistan, sowing is continuing. In Nepal, the sowing of the main season crop continues under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, the Yala season crop (smaller season) is under favourable conditions. In the DPRK, conditions are favourable. In East Africa, harvesting of Belg season crops finalised in Ethiopia under mixed conditions, and harvesting of main/Meher season cereals is underway with poor outcomes expected in parts of Kenya and Somalia due to drier and hotter than normal conditions. In West Africa, the harvesting of main season crops is underway in eastern Liberia, southern Ghana, central and southern Togo, southern Benin, and Nigeria, while sowing continues in Guinea, western Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Along the Sahel, sowing of main season crops continues in all regions, including in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In East Asia, the harvesting in China of the early double-crop (smallest season) is progressing alongside the sowing of the late double-crop (medium season). Single-season rice (largest season) continues to develop under favourable conditions. In the Republic of Korea, heavy rainfall mid-month flooded 25,065 hectares of local paddy fields — 3.6 percent of the nation’s entire rice production sites, particularly in South Chungcheong Province. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable. In Japan, conditions are favourable for early cultivation in the warm southwestern regions and first-season rice in Okinawa. In Central & South Asia, the transplanting of Kharif rice (larger season) in India is ongoing, albeit delayed in a few eastern and northeastern states due to rainfall deficits. In Pakistan, sowing of Kharif (summer) crops continues. In Bangladesh, harvesting for the Aus crop (smallest season) is beginning as the sowing of the Aman crop (medium season) continues. In Sri Lanka, Yala season crops (smallest season) continue to develop under favourable conditions. In Nepal, planting and development of the main season rice continues under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, the sowing of dry-season rice in Indonesia is continuing at a slower pace than last year, as earlier sown crops are beginning to be harvested. In Malaysia, the sowing of dry-season rice is wrapping up. In Brunei, most dry-season crops are in the early reproductive and ripening stages due to planting delays. In Viet Nam, the harvest of dry-season rice (winter-spring season) is wrapping in the north as the sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) continues. In the south, wet-season rice (summer-autumn season) is in the young panicle formation to grain filling stages. In Thailand, sowing of wet-season rice is progressing with an expected slight decrease in total area compared to last season. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions, supported by sufficient rainfall. In Myanmar, the sowing of wet-season rice continues. In Cambodia, the sowing of wet-season rice is progressing. In the Americas, conditions are favourable in the US. In Cuba, the sowing of main-season rice continues. In Haiti, Printemps crops are under favourable conditions. In Honduras, conditions are favourable. In Europe, conditions are mixed for Türkiye due to drought. In MENA, conditions remain favourable in Iran and Egypt. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are generally favourable in West Africa, albeit with areas of conflict in Mali and northern and northeastern Nigeria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In North America, the crop in the US is progressing within the reproductive stages under favourable conditions. In Canada, conditions are favourable in Ontario and Manitoba; however, in Quebec, excess moisture and cool temperatures this spring, along with continued moisture over the growing season, have stunted crop development. In Mexico, crop conditions are favourable. In Europe, hot and dry weather in the southeastern EU is of concern. In Ukraine, very high temperatures and little rainfall in the central, eastern, and southern regions are negatively affecting crop development; however, conditions remain favourable in the western regions. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed due to continuing dry weather in parts of the Central and Southern districts. In Africa, conditions are favourable in central and southern Nigeria; however, prolonged conflict and socio-economic issues remain an issue in the north and northeast regions. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China, supported by ample rainfall during July in the main producing northeast region. In India, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions with a slight decrease in total sown area compared to last year.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral conditions will most likely continue through the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 (87 to 43 percent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). Forecasts also indicate that La Niña conditions could potentially occur during October to January (up to a 49 percent chance), while the chances of El Niño conditions are low.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may develop during August to October 2025, based on observations during late July and forecasts from Copernicus Climate Change Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts (~ 50 to 60 percent chances). Negative IOD conditions typically lead to below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa and above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region.
Global temperatures for May 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin.
During late July to August, above-average temperatures are forecast in parts of central and northeastern Asia, central and northern Eurasia, the Middle East, central and northern North America, southern South America, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 31 July 2025. Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) model data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures and the possible Negative IOD development.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over western Canada, the northwest and western Great Plains in the US, and northeast Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the agricultural regions of Canada, the western and eastern US, and north and central Mexico. The long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning towards below-average precipitation over the Canadian Prairies, the northern Great Plains of the US, and eastern Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the continent except for the US southeast and Mississippi regions. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for Canada and the United States.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates near-average precipitation across most of the region. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over parts of southern Cuba, El Salvador, and western Nicaragua. The long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation over Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region except for southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central America & the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 - 22 August 2025, issued on 31 July 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over western Brazil and northern Peru, while below-average over eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay, and central Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, central and eastern Brazil, southwestern Bolivia, southern Chile, and southern Argentina, while below-average over northern Peru and central Ecuador. The long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests a leaning towards above-average precipitation over western and southeastern Columbia, western Brazil, Bolivia, western Paraguay, and northern Argentina, while below-average precipitation is likely over central Chile, and southern Argentina. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, eastern Ecuador, central and eastern Peru, western Bolivia, northern and northeastern Brazil, Uruguay, and central and southern Argentina.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Ireland, the western United Kingdom, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, western Germany, Poland, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, southern Belarus, the southwestern Russian Federation, western Türkiye, Georgia, and Armenia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over north Ireland, the southern United Kingdom, France, Spain, Portugal, eastern Belgium, the southern Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, and western Türkiye. The long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation most of Europe, except for central Europe. During the same period, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across all of Europe. For further details see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 - 22 August 2025, issued on 31 July 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northern Algeria and northern Tunisia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Morocco, northern Algeria, northern Tunisia, central and eastern Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, northern Saudi Arabia, and western Iran, while below-average over southern Libya and Oman. The long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely near-average precipitation over most of the region except for northwestern Iran, which is likely to see below-average precipitation. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region except for eastern Iran, southwestern Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southwest Mauritania, southern Mali, central east Chad, western Sudan, southeast South Sudan, Eritrea, northern and southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, and the northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, while below-average over Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, and the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Mauritania, southern Ethiopia, southwestern Somalia, eastern Kenya, central Tanzania, northern Mozambique, central Zambia, Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and Madagascar, while below-average over southern Mauritania, southern Mali, eastern Senegal, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso, Benin, Nigeria, southern Niger, southern Chad, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Central African Republic, southern Sudan, South Sudan, northwestern Ethiopia, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and northwestern Uganda. For the long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over Mali, northern Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, and northern Tanzania, while below-average over Serra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern and central Nigeria, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, western Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, and southern Somalia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Mauritania, northern Mali, northern Côte d'Ivoire, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, eastern Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, northern Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, eastern and central Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern and southern Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, eastern Angola, Zambia, and Madagascar. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East and West Africa.
Figure 3: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely August-September-October (ASO) 2025 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northeastern Kazakhstan, while below-average precipitation over most of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and northern and eastern Uzbekistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. The long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern and western Kazakhstan, western Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and western Turkmenistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and eastern Tajikistan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern India and northern Pakistan, while below-average precipitation over western India and central Pakistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Pakistan, northwest India, northern Nepal, and northern Bhutan, while below-average over western India and southern Sri Lanka. The long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over Pakistan, India, and western Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern and southern Pakistan, coastal and northeastern India, eastern Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southwestern and southeastern China, while below-average precipitation over northwest China and central Mongolia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for central and southern China. The long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over parts of China and Japan. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the southern Philippines, eastern Malaysia, Indonesia, southwestern Papua New Guinea, and south-central Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Thailand, southern Laos, central Viet Nam, the central Philippines, parts of Malaysia, parts of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, northern Australia, and New Zealand, while a leaning towards below-average over southern Cambodia, central Indonesia, and southern Australia. The long-term August-September-October 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the southern Philippines, eastern Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for Australia and central Indonesia.
Figure 4: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely August-September-October (ASO) 2025 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble