Global Crop Monitor
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No. 36: Published September 4th 2025
Conditions as of August 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of August are currently positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, the winter wheat harvest is wrapping up in the northern hemisphere, with a mix of above and below-average yields. The spring wheat harvest is ongoing under generally favourable conditions. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are favourable. For maize, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some spots of concern in southeastern Europe, Central America, Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. For rice, conditions are favourable, albeit with some major flooding in Pakistan’s Punjab region. For soybeans, conditions are generally favourable in the northern hemisphere, although there are some concerns in parts of southeastern Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions will likely develop during September to December 2025 (53 to 58 per cent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). This will likely be a weak-strength and short-lived ENSO event.
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is developing, based on negative IOD index values during recent weeks. Negative IOD conditions are anticipated through November 2025 (~65 to 84 per cent chances, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts) and potentially through December 2025 (> 50 per cent chances).
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of August 28th.
In North America, winter wheat harvest in the US is wrapping up under good conditions, except in Nebraska and South Dakota. Spring wheat harvesting is progressing, albeit with dry conditions in the western regions. In Canada, winter wheat harvest is wrapping up as it begins for spring wheat. In Mexico, harvesting is wrapping up with reduced yields and area due to earlier drought conditions. In Europe, winter wheat harvesting in the EU is wrapping up across northern and central Europe with average to above-average yields. In the UK, harvesting is wrapping up with below-average yields. In the Russian Federation, the winter wheat harvest is wrapping up with reduced yields in the southern district, but with exceptional yields in the Central district and parts of the Volga district. The spring wheat harvest is just beginning. In Ukraine, harvest is wrapping up with below-average yields within the southern and eastern regions due to severe drought and the ongoing war. In Central Asia, the winter wheat harvest is wrapping up in Afghanistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan under generally favourable conditions except in central Afghanistan and Uzbekistan due to dry weather. Spring wheat is under dry conditions in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, while under favourable conditions in Afghanistan and northern Kazakhstan. In East Asia, harvesting in China of spring wheat is continuing under favourable conditions. In Mongolia, drier-than-normal conditions are continuing, particularly in the Selenge province. In MENA, spring wheat continues to experience delayed rains, negatively impacting crop growth. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are favourable across southern Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In northern Ethiopia, there are concerns about dry weather alongside ongoing socio-economic issues. In South Africa, wheat is under favourable conditions with supportive rainfall and ample water for irrigation. In South America, ample rainfall in Argentina since the beginning of the season has supported favourable growing conditions; however, it has also resulted in a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Brazil, the harvest is beginning under favourable conditions. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable. In Chile, conditions are favourable. In Oceania, conditions in Australia are generally favourable; however, dry conditions remain in parts of southern New South Wales.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of August 28th.
In South America, harvest in Brazil is advancing for the summer-planted crop (larger season) with exceptional yields and an increase in the total sown area compared to last year. In Central America & the Caribbean, sowing of the main season crop in Cuba continues. In Haiti, the harvest of the Printemps crops is wrapping up as the sowing of the Été season continues. In Guatemala, Honduras, and western Nicaragua, there is concern due to erratic rains. Conversely, better rainfall outcomes in El Salvador and eastern Nicaragua are expected to result in near-average yields. In North America, plentiful rains and optimal temperatures in the US have persisted across the main production areas, leading to above-average yield expectations. There is an increase in the total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable as the crop continues to develop. In Mexico, conditions are favourable for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season). In Europe, persistent drought in Bulgaria, eastern Croatia, Greece, Hungary, and Romania has caused irreversible yield losses, especially in rainfed areas; conversely, conditions were more favourable in western and northern Europe. In Ukraine, drought conditions continue to degrade crops in the southern, eastern, and parts of the central region. In the Russian Federation, conditions remained mixed in the Southern district due to drought; however, conditions are favourable elsewhere. In Turkey, conditions are mixed due to recent hot and dry weather and insufficient water for irrigation due to earlier dry weather during the winter season. In Asia, the harvest in China of the spring-planted crop is wrapping up as the summer-planted crops continue to develop. In India, conditions are favourable for the Kharif crop (larger season) with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Pakistan, flash flooding in Punjab has destroyed thousands of acres of crops. In Nepal, the harvest of the main season crop has begun. In Sri Lanka, the harvest of the Yala season crop (smaller season) is beginning. In the DPRK, the harvest is beginning. In East Africa, the harvest of main season crops wrapped up in Burundi and the bimodal regions of South Sudan and the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania. Main season crops continue to develop across unimodal regions of South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia (Meher season), and Eritrea under dry conditions. In West Africa, harvesting of main season crops is wrapping up in Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, central and southern Benin, Nigeria, and the southern half of Cameroon. Sowing and development of second-season cereals is underway in Côte d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, Nigeria, and northern Cameroon. Areas of conflict remain in northeastern Nigeria, central Mali, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of August 28th.
In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China as the harvest of single-season rice (largest season) is beginning, and the late double-crop (medium season) continues to develop. In the Republic of Korea, the harvest is just beginning under generally favourable conditions despite earlier losses from flooding and recent recurring hot and humid weather. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable. In Japan, conditions are favourable despite some areas with high temperatures and drought since July. In Central & South Asia, transplanting in India of Kharif rice (larger season) is wrapping up with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Bangladesh, harvesting for the Aus crop (the smallest season) is wrapping up as the sowing of the Aman crop (medium season) continues. In Pakistan, flash flooding in Punjab has destroyed thousands of acres of crops. In Sri Lanka, the harvest of the Yala season crop (smallest season) is beginning. In Nepal, the main season rice is under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, the sowing in Indonesia of dry-season rice continues as harvesting of earlier sown crops enters the second month, with good yields. In Malaysia, planting of wet-season rice is just beginning with good rainfall amounts received. In Brunei, harvesting of dry-season rice is now underway. In Viet Nam, the summer-autumn rice (wet-season) in the north is developing as the sowing of season rice (main wet-season crop) continues. In the south, the harvest of the summer-autumn rice (wet-season) is ongoing as the autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice (wet-season) crops develop. In Thailand, damage is still being assessed to wet-season rice from heavy rainfall and flooding in the northern, upper northeastern, and central regions during July. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions, despite some losses due to the impact of three tropical cyclones in July. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice reached its peak in August. In Cambodia, the sowing of wet-season rice is continuing. In the Americas, conditions are favourable in the US. In Cuba, the sowing of main-season rice continues. In Haiti, the harvest of the Printemps crops has wrapped up under favourable conditions. In Honduras, conditions are favourable for second-season rice. In Europe, conditions are generally favourable in Türkiye. In MENA, conditions remain favourable in Iran and Egypt. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with continuing areas of conflict in Mali and northern and northeastern Nigeria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of August 28th.
In North America, conditions are favourable in the US as the crop progresses with plentiful rains and moderate temperatures. The total sown area is reduced compared to last year. In Canada, harvest is beginning under favourable conditions despite dry weather across most provinces. In Mexico, crop conditions are favourable as harvesting progresses. In Europe, hot and dry weather in the southeastern EU remains a concern, while the rest of Europe is under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, crops are ripening under favourable conditions in the western, northern, and parts of the central regions; however, long-term drought conditions continue to negatively impact crops in the southern and eastern regions. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed due to continuing dry conditions in the Southern district; however, conditions are favourable elsewhere. In Africa, conditions remain favourable in central and southern Nigeria, while mixed in the north and northeast due to the ongoing conflict and socio-economic issues. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China as the crop matures for harvest starting next month. In India, conditions are favourable with a slight reduction in total sown area compared to last year.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions will likely develop during September to December 2025 (53 to 58 per cent chances, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook). This will likely be a weak-strength and short-lived ENSO event. La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based on observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is developing, based on negative IOD index values during recent weeks. Negative IOD conditions are anticipated through November 2025 (~65 to 84 per cent chances, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts) and potentially through December 2025 (> 50 per cent chances). Associated with negative IOD conditions are higher chances of below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa and above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region.
The timing of wet and dry conditions based on Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation (green and brown polygons), and sea surface temperature departures from average during August-September (blue and red shading), related to the IOD. The regions used to define the Dipole Mode Index are outlined in black. Source: FEWS NET 2021: IOD and Precipitation, Agroclimatology Fact Sheet
Global temperatures for August 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. During late August to August, heatwaves occurred in China, southern Europe, Japan, northern Mexico, the Middle East, Sudan, and the western and central United States. During late August to September, above-average temperatures are forecast in parts of central and northeastern Asia, central and northern Eurasia, the Middle East, central and northern North America, southern South America, and other regions.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 21 August 2025. Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) model data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures and the developing Negative IOD and likely development of La Niña conditions.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over southern Texas in the US and northeastern Mexico, while below-average precipitation over central Canada, the southwest US, northwest and southeast Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Canada, the western US, and Mexico, while below-average over eastern Canada and the eastern US. The long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning towards above-average precipitation over western and northern Canada and southern Mexico, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over the central and western US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the US, Mexico, and eastern Canada. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for Mexico and the United States.
InCentralAmerica&theCaribbean,thetwo-weekforecast(Figures 1 & 2)indicatesa likelihood of below-average precipitation over Guatemala and Belize. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over parts of southern Cuba, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, and central Costa Rica. The long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation over Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region except for western Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. For further details, see the CM4EWregional outlook for Central America & the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 September 2025, issued on 29 August 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Peru, western and northern Bolivia, and central and southern Brazil, while below-average precipitation over western Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Ecuador, northern and southeastern Brazil, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, central and eastern Brazil, southwestern and northeastern Bolivia, southern Chile, and southern Argentina. The long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation over central Chile and western Argentina. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Colombia, Venezuela, eastern Ecuador, central and eastern Peru, western Bolivia, northeastern and southern Brazil, Uruguay, central Chile, and central and southern Argentina.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northern Germany, Czechia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, western Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Greece, eastern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and central and southern Russia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Iceland, northern Norway, northern Sweden, northern Finland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, Türkiye, southern Russia, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, and western Azerbaijan. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Ireland, the United Kingdom, Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, southern Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, northern Poland, Belarus, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Greece, and western Türkiye. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 September 2025, issued on 29 August 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over northwestern Iran and southern Yemen. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeastern Morocco, central Algeria, Tunisia, central and eastern Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, northern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, western Oman, and western Iran, while below-average over southeastern Iran. The long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over Syria, northern Iraq, and Iran. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, northwest Libya, and southern Yemen.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Mauritania, southern Mali, northeastern Guinea, northwestern Niger, northeastern Nigeria, central and southern Chad, and northern Cameroon, while below-average precipitation over Ethiopia, northern Somalia, southern Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, southern Mozambique, and western and eastern South Africa. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, central Ethiopia, central Tanzania, central and southern Namibia, southern Botswana, and South Africa, while below-average over southern Senegal, central Mali, southern Niger, northern Nigeria, southern Chad, southern Sudan, and South Sudan. For the long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over central Chad, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia, while below-average over Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern and central Nigeria, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, eastern Kenya, and Somalia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Mauritania, northern Mali, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Côte d'Ivoire, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, central Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern and southern Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern Angola, Zambia, and southern South Africa. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East and West Africa.
Figure 3: Based on August conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely September-October-November (SON) 2025 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Afghanistan, while below-average precipitation over eastern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, and northern Tajikistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Kazakhstan. The long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over most of the region except for northern and northwestern Kazakhstan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and eastern Tajikistan.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central India and western Pakistan, while below-average precipitation over southern India and northern Pakistan, central Bangladesh, and southern Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Pakistan, northern and southeast India, Nepal, and Bhutan, and western Sri Lanka, while below-average over western and central India. The long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over India and Nepal, while below-average precipitation over southern India and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Pakistan, northeastern India, central Nepal, eastern Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, while below-average over central India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central China and northeastern Russia, while below-average precipitation over northwest China and central Mongolia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southwest and southeast China, the southern Republic of Korea, and western Japan, while below-average over northeastern China and eastern Russia. The long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over parts of central and southwest China. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for southern and north-central China.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the southern Philippines, southern and western Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern New Zealand, while below-average precipitation over western Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeastern Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, northern Viet Nam, the Philippines, parts of Malaysia, parts of Indonesia, northern Australia, and New Zealand. The long-term September-October-November 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Viet Nam, the Philippines, eastern Malaysia, most of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Australia, while below-average over western Indonesia and western Malaysia. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, southern Thailand, southern Cambodia, southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, northern and southeast Australia, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Based on August conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely September-October-November (SON) 2025 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble