Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 43: Published May 7th 2026
Conditions as of April 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of April remain generally positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, conditions are overall favourable, albeit with some areas of dryness in Europe, the Middle East, and the US. For maize, global conditions are generally favourable; however, areas of dryness persist in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and are developing in the southeast US. For rice, overall conditions are favourable; however, there are some flooding concerns in northeastern Bangladesh. For soybeans, conditions are favourable in the Southern Hemisphere, with harvesting continuing as sowing begins in the Northern Hemisphere. The remaining crops are detailed in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
Neutral ENSO conditions are present. El Niño conditions are confidently forecast from mid-2026 to early 2027. El Niño conditions may develop soon—during May to July 2026 (61 percent chance)—and could become a moderate or strong event. According to the April 2026 NOAA CPC ENSO outlook, there is an 87 to 92 percent chance of El Niño conditions from July 2026 to January 2027. The likelihood of extreme conditions during the coming year will increase as El Niño warms global temperatures.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of April 28th.
n North America, drought in the US continues to expand across winter wheat areas. Spring wheat sowing picks up pace. In Canada, conditions have improved for winter wheat owing to recent above-average precipitation in Ontario and Quebec. In Mexico, the autumn-winter season crop is under favourable conditions. In Europe, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions; however, additional rainfall is needed in central and eastern Europe to avoid rapid deterioration in crop conditions before entering the reproductive stages. In the UK, conditions are favourable. In Türkiye, conditions remain favourable for winter wheat. In Ukraine, winter wheat is under favourable conditions despite frequent and prolonged frosts in April. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. Spring wheat sowing is ongoing, albeit slowed by recent cold and wet weather. In Central Asia, winter wheat continues to develop in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan under favourable conditions. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat conditions are favourable. Sowing of spring wheat is now underway across southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan under favourable conditions. In South Asia, the harvest is wrapping up in India under favourable conditions despite some localized damage from late-season rainfall and hail. In Pakistan, harvesting is progressing under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvesting is wrapping up. In Nepal, harvesting is ongoing. In East Asia, winter wheat in China develops under favourable conditions as spring wheat sowing continues. In Mongolia, spring wheat sowing is underway. In MENA, winter wheat continues to develop across Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and harvesting is just beginning in some areas. However, early-season dry conditions continue to negatively affect crop performance in northwestern Libya and parts of central Iran. Flooding at the end of March also impacted parts of Syria, Iraq, and Iran, though the overall impact on crops is expected to be minimal. In Sub-Saharan Africa, winter wheat harvesting in Sudan is wrapping up with below-average yields expected due to ongoing conflict. In Tanzania, conditions are favourable for winter wheat with harvest beginning in May. In Lesotho, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, sowing of winter wheat is beginning under favourable conditions. In Oceania, sowing is just beginning in Australia. In South America, sowing is beginning in Uruguay.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of April 28th.
In South America, the harvest in Brazil of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is progressing under mostly exceptional conditions. The summer-planted crop (larger season) is in mostly favourable conditions; however, a lack of rainfall and high temperatures is negatively impacting crops in the Southeast region. In Argentina, the harvest of early-planted crops (larger season) slows as priority shifts to the soybean harvest. The late-planted crop (smaller season) continues through the grain-filling stage under favorable conditions. In Uruguay, the harvest for the late-planted crop is wrapping up. In Central America & the Caribbean, conditions are favourable in Mexico for the autumn-winter season (smaller season). In Cuba, harvesting of second-season maize is wrapping up with below-average yields. In Haiti, the Printemps season is under favourable conditions. In Guatemala, sowing is beginning for the Primera season of maize. In North America, sowing is progressing in the US, with an expected reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Europe, sowing in the EU is ongoing under favorable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is beginning. In the Russian Federation, sowing is beginning. In South Asia, the harvest of the Rabi crop (smaller season) in India is wrapping up under favorable conditions. In Sri Lanka, sowing of the Yala season maize is just beginning. In Bangladesh, the harvest for the Rabi/winter crop is wrapping up. In Nepal, sowing of the main season maize progresses. In East Asia, sowing of spring-maize in China is continuing throughout the country. In Southeast Asia, the harvest in Indonesia of the wet-season crop continues as sowing of the dry-season crop begins. In Malaysia, conditions are favourable. Dry-season maize harvesting is wrapping up in Cambodia as it progresses in Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand. In East Africa, Belg crops are favourable in Ethiopia. In South Sudan, sowing is ongoing. In Uganda, Kenya (long rains), Somalia (Gu season), Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania, sowing and development of the main season maize is underway. Recent drier than average conditions are causing concern in Rwanda, Burundi, and the central and western bimodal areas of Uganda. In West Africa, sowing of main season maize is underway along the Gulf of Guinea, including in Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. In Southern Africa, harvesting is ongoing in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Lesotho, and eSwatini. Yield concerns remain in Angola, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. In South Africa, harvest is progressing under mostly favourable to exceptional conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of Rice 28th.
In East Asia, the early double-crop rice (smallest season) in China is developing as the sowing of single-season rice (largest season) begins. In Central & South Asia, the harvest in India is progressing for the Rabi crop as the Summer crop continues to develop. In Bangladesh, harvesting of the Boro crop (largest season) advances in a race against rising waters from heavy rains in the low-lying haor regions of the northeast. Sowing continues for the Aus crop (smallest season). In Sri Lanka, sowing of Yala season rice is beginning under favourable conditions. In Nepal, sowing of second-season rice is progressing under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, harvesting in Indonesia of wet-season rice continues as sowing begins for dry-season rice. In Malaysia, the harvest is wrapping up for wet-season rice as sowing progresses for dry-season rice. In Brunei, harvesting of wet-season rice is wrapping up as the sowing of dry-season rice begins. In Viet Nam, winter-spring (dry-season) rice is under favourable conditions across the country as harvesting continues in the south and the sowing of summer-autumn (wet-season) rice begins. In Thailand, harvesting continues for dry-season rice with an expected increase in yields compared to last season, albeit with a reduction in total sown area. In the Philippines, dry-season rice harvesting is ongoing with a slight reduction in yields compared to last year. In Myanmar, sowing of dry-season rice is finishing under favourable conditions, as the harvesting of earlier-planted crops continues. In Cambodia, harvesting of dry-season rice is progressing. In Laos, harvesting of dry-season rice is beginning. In the Americas, the harvest in Brazil is continuing. In Argentina, harvesting is wrapping up. In Mexico, the autumn-winter crop is under favourable conditions. In Cuba, harvesting of the second-season rice crop is beginning under mixed conditions. In Haiti, main season rice is under favourable conditions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, sowing of main season rice is underway along the Gulf of Guinea, including in Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria. In Mali,. Conditions remain poor due to the ongoing conflict. In Kenya, second-season rice is under favourable conditions. In Tanzania, conditions have improved due to recent rains. In Mozambique, conditions are mixed due to earlier flooding and a long dry spell. In Madagascar, rice conditions have improved across the country.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of April 28th.
In South America, the harvest in Brazil is wrapping up under exceptional conditions in the Central-West, Southeast, and Northern regions, thanks to mostly good weather throughout the season. In Argentina, harvesting is progressing for the early-planting crop (larger season) despite delays from recent heavy rainfall. Yields are good, supported by timely rainfall since mid-February. The late-planted crop (smaller season) is reaching maturity under favorable conditions, with harvest just beginning in the north. In Uruguay, harvesting has begun with mixed yields. In Africa, harvest is ongoing in South Africa with above-average yields expected across most of the country, with an increase in total sown area compared to last year and the five-year average. In North America, sowing in the US is ramping up under generally favorable conditions, with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Europe, sowing is just beginning in the EU with dry topsoil conditions in central Europe. In Ukraine, sowing is just beginning under favorable conditions, with an increase in total sown area expected compared to last year.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
Neutral ENSO conditions are present. El Niño conditions are confidently forecast from mid-2026 to early 2027. El Niño conditions may develop soon—during May to July 2026 (61 percent chance)—and could become a moderate or strong event. According to the April 2026 NOAA CPC ENSO outlook, there is an 87 to 92 percent chance of El Niño conditions from July 2026 to January 2027. The likelihood of extreme conditions during the coming year will increase as El Niño warms global temperatures.
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, the Sahel region, Southern Africa, India, Northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
During May 2026, above-average temperatures are forecast in West Africa, East Africa, central Southern Africa and Madagascar, central and northern Asia, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, western Canada, the western United States, northern Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and northern and central South America.
Average temperature anomaly forecast for the next 30 days starting on 26 March 2026, from four Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models. SubC data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures, while the long-term forecast reflects the potential development of an El Niño event.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over central and western Canada. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the Canadian Pacific coast and the US Northwest and Southwest, while likely below-average over central and eastern Canada and the US Midwest and Northeast. The long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation on the Canadian Pacific coast. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region, with the highest likelihood over the western and southeast US. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the USA.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over central Mexico, while below-average precipitation over western Cuba, southern Guatemala, Honduras, eastern El Salvador, western Nicaragua, and southern Costa Rica. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern and western Mexico, southern Cuba, Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and eastern Panama. The long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over western Mexico, while likely below-average precipitation over southeast Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region. For additional details, see the CM4EW Regional Outlook for Central America and the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 – 22 May, issued on 1 May 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern and northeast Brazil, while below-average precipitation over northern Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, southeastern Bolivia, Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern and central Argentina, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western and central Colombia, northern Venezuela, Ecuador, western and southern Peru, southwestern Bolivia, the majority of Brazil, and northern Chile, while below-average over central Peru, western Brazil, northern Bolivia, and central Argentina. The long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation over western Colombia, northern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and northern Argentina. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for Argentina, southern Chile, northern Uruguay, and southern Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Norway, southwestern Sweden, Estonia, eastern Latvia, northeastern Lithuania, and central Russia, while below-average precipitation over Portugal, Spain, southern Italy, southern Albania, southern Greece, northern Russian Federation, and western Türkiye. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Greece and western Türkiye, while leaning towards below-average over Ireland, eastern France, southern Germany, southern Norway, southern Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, and southwestern Poland. The long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over eastern Türkiye, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over Latvia, Lithuania, and central Belarus. During the same period, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Europe except for Portugal, Spain, Ireland, the northern United Kingdom, and western Türkiye.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 – 22 May, issued on 1 May 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over Syria, northern Morocco, and northern Algeria. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Morocco, central and southern Algeria, Tunisia, Jordan, and northwestern Saudi Arabia. The long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central and eastern Syria, Iraq, eastern Jordan, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and northern Iran. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for western Morocco and northwestern Iran.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern South Sudan, northern and western Uganda, eastern and central Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, and northcentral South Africa, while below-average precipitation over southern Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, southern Mali, western and southern Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria, southeastern Chad, western Ethiopia, northeastern Tanzania, northern Madagascar, and western South Africa. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Mauritania, Mali, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, southern Chad, the northern Central African Republic, Equatoria Guinea, Gabon, the southern Republic of the Congo, northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, northeastern Tanzania, northern Malawi, central Mozambique, southern Zambia, southeastern Angola, Namibia, southwestern South Africa, and Madagascar, while likely to be below-average over eastern Niger, northern and central Chad, and northwestern South Sudan. For the long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over southern Mauritania, southwestern Mali, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, southern Sudan, South Sudan, western Ethiopia, northern Uganda, and the northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for western Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, most of South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini. For additional details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa.
Figure 3: Based on September conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely May-June-July (MJJ) 2026 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over western Kazakhstan, northwestern Turkmenistan, and western Uzbekistan, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern and eastern Kazakhstan, central Uzbekistan, and southern Mongolia. During this time, temperatures are leaning towards above-average over southern Kazakhstan. The long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over Kyrgyzstan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and southern Afghanistan.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over central India. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Pakistan, southwestern India, and western Sri Lanka, while below-average over Bangladesh, northeastern India, eastern Nepal, and Bhutan. The long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation in central and western India, eastern Pakistan, and western Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern Pakistan, western and northeastern India, and Sri Lanka. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern China, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern and southwestern China and southern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern and southern China, the Republic of Korea, the southern Democratic Republic of Korea, and Japan, while leaning towards below-average temperatures over northcentral Mongolia. The long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over southeastern and western China, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northwestern Mongolia. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for north-central China.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Indonesia and eastern Australia, while below-average precipitation is likely over Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Viet Nam, Cambodia, and the central and southern Philippines. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for central Indonesia, central and western Australia, and northern New Zealand. The long-term April-May-June 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over southern Myanmar, eastern Thailand, the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, eastern and western Australia, and northern New Zealand. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, central and northern Indonesia, northern Papua New Guinea, southcentral and southeast Australia, and New Zealand. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Australia.
Figure 4: Based on January conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely May-June-July (MJJ) 2026 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble