Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 45: Published July 2nd 2026
Conditions as of June 28th
To access all reports, please visit the Archive.
Please visit the Referencing Guidelines page for information on how to cite the Crop Monitor reports and products.
Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of June remain generally positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, conditions are generally favorable, though some concerns persist in Europe and the United States. For maize, global conditions are generally favorable; however, dryness is developing in parts of Central America, East Africa, Europe, India, and Thailand. For rice, overall conditions are favorable; however, dryness has developed in India and Thailand. For soybeans, sowing is wrapping up in the Northern Hemisphere under mostly favorable conditions, except in India, where the Southwest Monsoon is delayed. The remaining crops are detailed in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
El Niño conditions are present. This will likely be a high-impact event due to its early onset in June 2026 and strong or very strong conditions from September through November 2026 (84% chance). The odds of it ranking among the strongest events on record are relatively high, with a 63% chance of very strong El Niño conditions from November 2026 through January 2027. The event will remain active at least through March 2027.
Global temperatures for June 2026 were the second warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. The likelihood of extreme conditions during the coming year will increase as El Niño warms global temperatures.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of June 28th.
In North America, the winter wheat harvest in the US is progressing with below-average yields due to drought in the central and southern Plains. Spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Canada, conditions are favourable as spring wheat sowing wraps up and winter wheat develops. In Europe, winter wheat in the EU is under generally favourable conditions; however, dry soils in central Europe and heatwaves in western Europe might potentially reduce yield prospects. In Türkiye, winter wheat harvesting is ongoing with above-average yields. In the United Kingdom, conditions remain favourable despite the hot and dry weather. In Ukraine, winter wheat remains under favourable conditions away from the war front. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. Spring wheat sowing has been completed with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Central Asia, winter wheat harvesting is just beginning in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Additionally, spring wheat is in the vegetative to reproductive stage across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia. In South Asia, harvesting is wrapping up in Pakistan under favourable conditions. In Nepal, the harvest is wrapping up. In East Asia, winter wheat harvest in China is wrapping up as spring wheat continues to develop. In Mongolia, spring wheat is under favourable conditions. In MENA, winter wheat harvesting has finalized in Egypt and is complete or nearing completion in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, with mostly favourable yield outcomes expected. In Iran, wheat harvesting is continuing with favourable outcomes expected, except in a localized area in the centre of the country between Tehran and Esfahan, due to dry weather. In Sub-Saharan Africa, winter wheat continues in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho under favourable conditions. In South Africa, conditions are favourable for both dryland and irrigated wheat production following wet conditions during late summer and autumn, which resulted in high soil moisture and abundant irrigation water. In Oceania, sowing in Australia is wrapping up under mostly favourable conditions, and a noticeable decline in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In South America, sowing is progressing in Argentina at a good pace, albeit with some delays in the southern agricultural belt due to excess soil moisture. In Brazil, sowing is progressing with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Chile, sowing is continuing.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of June 28th.
In South America, the harvest in Brazil of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is wrapping up as the harvest of the summer-planted crop (larger season) begins. In Argentina, the harvest of the late-planted crop (smaller season) is progressing under favourable conditions. In Central America & the Caribbean, the harvest in Mexico is ongoing for the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) while sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season) continues. Sowing of Primera season crops is underway across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, and there is ongoing concern for the start of the season across all regions due to erratic rainfall and high temperatures, which resulted in delayed planting and localized losses. In North America, conditions are favourable in the US, with good emergence and silking. In Canada, conditions are favourable, with good emergence. In Europe, conditions in the EU have improved in southeastern Europe, while hot spells in western Europe could negatively affect yields. In Ukraine, conditions are generally favourable, though soils are dry in the eastern and western regions. In the Russian Federation, conditions are favourable. In South Asia, sowing in Pakistan is continuing. In Sri Lanka, Yala season maize is under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, the summer (Kharif) season crop is under favourable conditions. In Nepal, main-season maize is under favourable conditions. In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China for spring-maize (larger season) as sowing of summer-maize (smaller season) continues. In Southeast Asia, the harvest in Indonesia of the wet-season crop is wrapping up as sowing of the dry-season crop continues. In Malaysia, wet-season crops are under favourable conditions. The wet-season crop is in the sowing to vegetative stages in Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand. In East Africa, harvesting of Belg season maize is just beginning in Ethiopia. Sowing continues in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia (Meher season), and Yemen, with dry concerns. Harvesting is underway in bimodal regions of Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, while crops continue to develop in Somalia, Kenya, northern Uganda, and bimodal regions of north and northeastern United Republic of Tanzania. In West Africa, sowing and development is underway in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, conflict continues to adversely affect crops in central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, the Lac region in Chad, northeastern Nigeria, northern and southwestern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. In Southern Africa, harvesting is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of June 28th.
In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China for early double-crop rice (smallest season) and for single-season rice (largest season). There is a reduction in total sown area for early double-crop rice compared to last year. In the Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable. In the DPRK, conditions have improved from earlier in-season drought. In Central & South Asia, sowing of the Kharif crop is beginning under mixed conditions due to the slow-moving Southwest Monsoon. In Bangladesh, the Aus crop (smallest season) develops as sowing continues for the Aman crop (medium season). In Pakistan, sowing of Kharif rice is underway. In Sri Lanka, Yala season rice is under favourable conditions. In Nepal, harvesting of spring-season rice is wrapping up. In Southeast Asia, harvesting in Indonesia of wet-season rice is finishing as sowing continues for dry-season rice. In Malaysia, the sowing of dry-season rice is progressing. In Brunei, the sowing of dry-season rice is complete. In Viet Nam, the harvest is ongoing for winter-spring rice (dry-season rice) in the north, while in the south, summer-autumn rice (wet-season rice) is in the sowing and tillering stages. In Thailand, sowing of wet-season rice is continuing under mixed conditions due to drought and reduced fertilizer availability. There is a reduction in total sown area compared to last year due to lower rice prices and rising production costs. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions. In Myanmar, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, sowing of wet-season rice is ongoing. In Laos, wet-season rice sowing is just beginning. In the Americas, the autumn-winter crop in Mexico is under favourable conditions. In the US, conditions are favourable. In Cuba, harvesting of the second-season rice is wrapping up as the sowing of the main-season rice is continuing under mixed conditions. In Haiti, the harvest of the main-season rice is beginning. In MENA, sowing in Egypt continues under favourable conditions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are favourable along the Gulf of Guinea; however, conflict remains a factor in the Sahel. In Tanzania and Madagascar, conditions are favourable. In southern Mozambique, periods of heavy rains and flooding and a severe dry spell negatively impacted crops.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of June 28th.
In North America, conditions are favourable in the US with good emergence and blooming. In Canada, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions after an initial slow start. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Europe, conditions are dry in central and eastern European countries, while favourable elsewhere. In Ukraine, conditions are generally favourable, though dry soils persist in the eastern and western regions, along with the ongoing war. In the Russian Federation, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Asia, sowing is continuing in China under favourable conditions. In India, sowing is just beginning under mixed conditions due to the slow progress of the Southwest Monsoon and dry soils. In Africa, conditions are favourable in Nigeria as sowing continues.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
El Niño conditions are present. This will likely be a high-impact event due to its early onset in June 2026 and strong or very strong conditions from September through November 2026 (84% chance, according to the June 2026 NOAA CPC ENSO outlook). The odds of it ranking among the strongest events on record are relatively high, with a 63% chance of very strong El Niño conditions from November 2026 through January 2027. The event will remain active at least through March 2027.
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, the Sahel region, Southern Africa, India, Northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also forecast, with potential for a strong event during October to December 2026. A positive IOD tends to enhance the drying influence of El Niño in Australia and the Maritime Continent and substantially increase the chances of a wet and intense East African short-rain season.
Global temperatures for June 2026 were the second warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. The likelihood of extreme conditions during the coming year will increase as El Niño warms global temperatures.
During late June through early July 2026, abnormally hot temperatures are forecast in agricultural areas of the central and southeastern United States, coastal and northeastern Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, northern Colombia, Europe, the Sahel region, East Africa, India, northern Pakistan, southeastern Afghanistan, central Asia, northern China, and Myanmar (Figure 1). East Africa, India, southern Europe, parts of the southwestern United States, and Southeast Asia were impacted by heat earlier in June.
CHC AgriHeat Forecast for June 26 to July 10, 2026. Forecast 15-day average maximum temperatures are shown where they will be abnormally hot (Tmax > 80th percentile and > 30 C) and in active crop-growing areas. Areas with forecasted below-average rainfall for this period are also identified. Based on a 15-day CHIRTS-GEFS forecast from June 26, 2026. From UCSB Climate Hazards Center. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures and the current El Niño conditions.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the western US, while below-average precipitation is likely over central and western Canada and the central US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the Canadian Prairies and the northern and southeast US. The long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over the western US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region, with the highest likelihood over the western and eastern US and western Canada. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the USA.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over northwestern Mexico, while below-average precipitation is likely over southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, western Nicaragua, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern Mexico, southern Cuba, southern Guatemala, and El Salvador. The long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over northwestern Mexico, while likely below-average precipitation over the rest of the region. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region. For additional details, see the CM4EW Regional Outlook for Central America and the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 4 – 17 July 2026, issued on 26 June 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern French Guiana, Central West Brazil, northeastern Bolivia, and northern Chile, while below-average precipitation is likely over western Colombia, eastern Venezuela, northern Ecuador, central Peru, northern Brazil, southeastern Bolivia, western Paraguay, northern Argentina, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Colombia, northern Venezuela, Ecuador, western and southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, Chile, southern Suriname, the majority of Brazil, and southern Argentina, while below-average over southern Venezuela. The long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Ecuador, central and southeastern Brazil, northeastern Bolivia, eastern Paraguay, central Chile, and southern Argentina, while below-average precipitation over western Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and northern Brazil. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for western Paraguay, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Spain, southern Italy, southern Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, southern Bulgaria, northern Norway, northern Sweden, northern Finland, and the northwestern and eastern Russian Federation, while below-average precipitation is likely over Ireland, the United Kingdom, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, eastern Poland, southern Sweden, Belarus, Ukraine, the western Russian Federation, northern Romania, Slovakia, eastern Hungary, northern Servia, and northcentral Türkiye. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the majority of Europe except for Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the northwestern Russian Federation. The long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over Ireland, the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, southern Norway, southern Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, central Belarus, western Ukraine, Czechia, and northern Austria. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for southern Portugal. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 4 – 17 July 2026, issued on 26 June 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over northern Algeria and northeastern Morocco. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Morocco, southern Algeria, Tunisia, central Libya, northern Egypt, southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, eastern Oman, southern Iran, Kuwait, and southern Iraq. The long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and western Iraq, while likely below-average precipitation over southwestern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for western Morocco.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northwestern Uganda and central Tanzania, while below-average precipitation is likely over southern Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, northern Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, the northern Central African Republic, Sudan, northern South Sudan, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, southern Tanzania, and central Mozambique. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for northern Sudan, northern Mauritania, northern DRD, western Angola, and western South Africa. For the long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over southeastern Nigeria, Cameroon, the northern Republic of the Congo, northwestern Democratic Republic of the Congo, the southwestern Central African Republic, Somalia, and central South Africa, while precipitation is likely to be below-average over southern Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, northwestern Guinea, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, northern Kenya, Uganda, the western Democratic Republic of the Congo, the southeastern Republic of the Congo, and northern Tanzania. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for northwestern Namibia. For additional details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa.
Figure 3: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely July-August-September (JAS) 2026 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central and northern Kazakhstan and eastern Kyrgyzstan, while below-average precipitation is likely over eastern Kazakhstan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for northern Kazakhstan.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central India, while below-average precipitation is likely over Pakistan, southern and western India, Sri Lanka, northern Bangladesh, and Bhutan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central Pakistan, western and northeastern India, Nepal, Bhutan, northern Bangladesh, and southern Sri Lanka. The long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over India, Pakistan, and Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over eastern Mongolia, southern and northeast China, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and northern Japan, while below-average precipitation is likely over central and northwestern China, southern Mongolia, and southern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region. The long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over central China. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for east-central China and eastern Mongolia.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over western Laos, northeastern Cambodia, and northeastern Viet Nam, while below-average precipitation is likely over southern Myanmar, central Thailand, western Cambodia, the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Myanmar, Laos, northern Thailand, northern and central Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, central Papua New Guinea, and southern New Zealand, while below-average temperatures are likely over northern and southern Australia. The long-term July-August-September 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Myanmar, northwestern Thailand, the northern Philippines, and southern New Zealand, while below-average precipitation is likely over Thailand, northern Cambodia, the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, eastern and western Australia, and northern New Zealand. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for southern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia.
Figure 4: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely July-August-September (JAS) 2026 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble