Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 48: Published October 1st 2026
Conditions as of September 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of September are generally positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. Wheat conditions are generally favourable in the Northern Hemisphere as spring wheat harvesting progresses and winter wheat sowing begins. Winter wheat continues to develop in the Southern Hemisphere. Maize conditions are generally favourable, albeit mixed across parts of Asia, Europe, East Africa, and North America. Rice conditions are generally favourable; however, adverse weather is negatively impacting crops in parts of South and Southeast Asia. Soybean harvesting is ongoing in the Northern Hemisphere, with good yields expected in the US, while poor yields in Europe. Sowing is beginning in Brazil. The remaining crops are discussed in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
El Niño conditions are present and strengthening. The event will likely be very strong from September 2026 to January 2027 (> 90% chance, according to the September 2026 NOAA ENSO outlook) and rank as one of the strongest since 1950. El Niño conditions are forecast through April 2027 (80% chance). Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast during October to December 2026.
During late September through early October 2026, abnormally hot temperatures are forecast in active crop development areas of the southeastern United States, eastern Mexico, Central America, Haiti, central Brazil, East Africa, southwestern Iran, southern and northern Pakistan, southern and northern India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, southern Indonesia, and the Philippines.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In North America, spring wheat harvesting in the US is wrapping up with above-average yields. The 2026/2027 winter wheat sowing is beginning; however, persistent heat and dryness in the Southern Plains are a concern. In Canada, winter wheat harvesting is wrapping up as the spring wheat harvest progresses, with above-average yields expected in Alberta. In Mexico, spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Europe, recent rainfall in Ukraine has improved soil moisture, supporting the sowing and emergence of the 2026/2027 winter wheat crop. The total sown area is expected to be lower than last year. In the Russian Federation, spring wheat harvesting continues under favourable conditions. Sowing of the 2026/2027 winter wheat crop is significantly behind the normal pace due to a mix of climatic and socioeconomic factors. In the United Kingdom, early sowing is just in the very early stages. In Türkiye, winter wheat sowing is beginning. In Central Asia, spring wheat harvesting is ongoing in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, with concerns in eastern Kazakhstan, southern Tajikistan, and northern Kyrgyzstan due to dry conditions. Sowing of winter wheat is beginning in southern Kazakhstan. In MENA, sowing of winter wheat is beginning under favourable conditions in Iran. In Yemen, harvesting of spring wheat is wrapping up under poor conditions due to drought. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions in South Africa are favourable over the interior, following widespread above-normal late-summer and autumn rain. However, dry weather over the Western Cape and parts of KwaZulu-Natal has reduced yields. There is a large reduction in total sown area compared to last year. Winter wheat is under favourable conditions in Lesotho, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In Ethiopia and Kenya, conditions are poor due to prolonged drought. In Oceania, conditions in Australia are exceptional in South Australia and Victoria; however, dryness has reduced prospects in Queensland and threatens yields in Western Australia. In South America, conditions in Argentina are favourable, with the crop primarily in the vegetative stages. The total sown area has decreased compared to last year. In Brazil, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with excessive rainfall reducing yield potential. There is a decrease in total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable; however, sunlight has been reduced during September. In Chile, conditions are poor due to heavy rainfall and waterlogged soils.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In South America, harvesting in Brazil of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is wrapping up with above-average yields. Sowing of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is underway. In Uruguay, sowing is ongoing, awaiting rainfall. In Central America & the Caribbean, conditions in Mexico are favourable for the spring-summer crop (larger season). Harvesting of Primera season crops is finishing under poor conditions across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua due to extended dry spells and high temperatures. In Cuba, conditions are favourable for the main-season crop. In Haiti, sowing of the Été season crops is affected by erratic rainfall. In North America, harvest in the US is beginning under contrasting conditions, with below-average yields expected in the Plains, while good yields are expected in parts of the central Corn Belt. In Canada, conditions are favourable as harvest begins. In Europe, persistent rain deficits alongside some hot weather in the EU have continued to worsen crop conditions across western and parts of central Europe. In Ukraine, the harvest is beginning, with poor yields expected in the west due to drought and high temperatures. In the Russian Federation, harvesting is ongoing, with good yields expected. In Türkiye, harvest is ongoing. In South Asia, the Kharif crop (larger season) in India is under generally favourable conditions except in the western and southern states due to below-average rainfall. In Pakistan, conditions are favourable as early harvesting begins. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season maize is ongoing. In Nepal, the harvest is wrapping up. In East Asia, China’s spring-maize crop (larger season) continues to be harvested, while the summer-maize crop (smaller season) ripens. In the DPRK, maize harvesting is finishing. In Southeast Asia, the harvest in Indonesia for the dry-season crop continues with good yields. In Malaysia, harvesting continues for dry-season crops, as wet-season sowing continues. The wet-season crop is favourable in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. In Thailand, wet-season crops have been negatively affected by dry weather. In the Philippines, heavy rains and strong winds have reduced yield expectations. In East Africa, conditions are poor across Sudan, South Sudan, and much of Ethiopia due to delayed and below-average rainfall as well as ongoing conflict in Sudan. Harvesting of main season crops is complete in bimodal regions of Uganda, Kenya, Somalia (Gu season), and Tanzania, while harvesting of main season cereals is just beginning in unimodal regions of northern Uganda and the western half of Kenya. In West Africa, harvesting of main season crops is finishing in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and Cameroon, while sowing continues in Guinea and the Central African Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In East Asia, conditions in China are favourable as the harvest continues for single-season rice (largest season) and the late double-crop rice (medium season) develops. In Japan, harvesting is beginning under favourable conditions. In the Republic of Korea, harvesting is ongoing. In the DPRK, the harvest is ongoing under favourable conditions. In Central & South Asia, Kharif sowing in India is almost complete; the total sown area is marginally lower than last year. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable for the Aman crop (medium season). In Pakistan, heat and moisture stress remain a concern in Punjab and Balochistan for Kharif season rice. In Sri Lanka, the Yala season rice harvest is ongoing. In Nepal, conditions are favourable for main-season rice. In Southeast Asia, harvesting in Indonesia of dry-season rice continues, with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Malaysia, harvesting of dry-season rice wraps up as sowing begins for wet-season rice. In Brunei, harvesting of dry-season rice is ongoing, with high levels of pest damage. In Viet Nam, tropical cyclone Narra and heavy rainfall in mid-September have negatively affected yields in the north for the main-season rice (seasonal). In the south, the harvest is ongoing for summer-autumn rice (wet-season rice), while autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice are at the grain-filling to harvesting stages. In Thailand, drought conditions have adversely affected wet-season rice yields. Total sown area is lower than last year. In the Philippines, harvesting is ongoing for wet-season rice under mixed conditions, reflecting earlier negative impacts from an enhanced southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones. In Myanmar, sowing continues for wet-season rice as heavy rains cause flood damage. In Cambodia, wet-season rice is suffering from drought. In Laos, wet-season rice sowing is under favourable conditions. In the Americas, conditions are favourable in the US as the harvest progresses. In Mexico, conditions are favourable for the Spring-Summer crop with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Cuba, sowing of main-season rice is continuing. In Haiti, harvesting of the main-season rice is ongoing. In Brazil, sowing is beginning. In MENA, conditions are favourable across Egypt, Iraq, and Iran. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are favourable in West Africa; however, conflict remains a negative factor in the Sahel areas of Mali and Nigeria. Conditions are favourable as the season ends in Burundi and starts in Kenya.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In North America, the harvest in the US is beginning at a faster-than-normal pace with good yields expected in most regions. In Canada, conditions are favourable as the harvest begins, with overall yields expected to be just above-average. In Mexico, conditions are favourable, with a large increase in sown area compared to last year. In Europe, conditions are poor in the EU, with high temperatures and dry weather negatively impacting crops. In Ukraine, the harvest is ongoing, with below-average yields expected due to below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures during the season. In the Russian Federation, harvest is ongoing under favourable to exceptional conditions due to good rains throughout the season, particularly in the south. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China, with crops in the late-stage grain filling and ripening stages. In India, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some dryness in the western and southern states. In Africa, conditions are mostly favourable in Nigeria outside of the northern regions.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
El Niño conditions are present and strengthening. The event will likely be very strong from September 2026 to January 2027 (> 90% chance, according to the September 2026 NOAA ENSO outlook) and rank as one of the strongest since 1950. El Niño conditions are forecast through April 2027 (80% chance).
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in parts of Asia (in Central Asia, southwestern Asia, and eastern China), southern North America, southeastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur across Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, Southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast during October to December 2026. Positive weekly IOD values from the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the event is developing. A positive IOD tends to enhance the drying influence of El Niño in Australia and the Maritime Continent and substantially increase the chances of a wet and intense East Africa short rains season.
The timing of wet and dry conditions based on Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation (green and brown polygons), and sea surface temperature departures from average during July September (blue and red shading), related to the IOD. The regions used to define the Dipole Mode Index are outlined in black.
August 2026 was one of the warmest months ever recorded for global temperatures, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. The very strong El Niño will continue to increase the likelihood of extreme conditions. During late September through early October 2026, abnormally hot temperatures are forecast in active crop development areas of the southeastern United States, eastern Mexico, Central America, Haiti, central Brazil, East Africa, southwestern Iran, southern and northern Pakistan, southern and northern India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, southern Indonesia, and the Philippines.
CHC AgriHeat Forecast for 24 September – 08 October, 2026. Forecast 15-day average maximum temperatures are shown where they will be abnormally hot (Tmax > 80th percentile and > 30 C) and in active crop-growing areas. Areas with forecasted below-average rainfall for this period are also identified. Based on a 15-day CHIRTS-GEFS forecast from June 26, 2026. From UCSB Climate Hazards Center. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures along with the current El Niño and developing positive IOD conditions.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the southwest US, while below-average precipitation is likely over northwestern and northern Canada and the central Mississippi Valley in the US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region. The long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over most of the central and southern US, while likely below-average precipitation over western Canada and the US Pacific Northwest. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region, except for the southern US. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the USA.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over northwest and central Mexico, southern Guatemala, southwest Honduras, and western Ecuador, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern Honduras, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region. The long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over most of Mexico, while likely below-average precipitation over the rest of the region. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region except for northeastern Mexico. For additional details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central America and the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 3 – 16 October 2026, issued on 25 September 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over south and southeast Brazil, eastern Paraguay, central Chile, and central west Argentina, while below-average precipitation is likely over central and northern Colombia, eastern Ecuador, central Peru, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern Brazil, northern and southern Bolivia, northern Argentina, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, southwest and northern Bolivia, northern and southern Chile, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and central and northern Brazil, while below-average over central Peru, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina. The long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over western Ecuador, western Peru, south and southeastern Brazil, eastern Paraguay, central and northern Chile, and southern and western Argentina, while below-average precipitation over Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern Brazil, eastern Ecuador, eastern Peru, Bolivia, and southern Chile. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region except for Paraguay, Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, while below-average temperatures are likely in central Argentina and southern Uruguay. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Argentina.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Greece, eastern Türkiye, Georgia, and Armenia, while below-average precipitation is likely over the United Kingdom, northwestern Spain, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, northwestern Germany, Denmark, southern Norway, southern Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, the western Russian Federation, Moldova, northeastern Romania, and north central Türkiye. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the regions except for France, northern Spain, Ireland, central Italy, and northern Türkiye. The long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over most of the region. During the same period, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 3 – 16 October 2026, issued on 25 September 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over Syria, central and northwestern Iraq, northeastern and eastern Iran, eastern Egypt, northern Libya, southern Tunisia, and central and northeastern Algeria, while below-average precipitation is likely over southern Yemen. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for coastal Morocco. The long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Syria, Iraq, Iran, and northern Saudi Arabia. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern and southern Mauritania, southern and central Mali, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, northern Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, southwestern Niger, eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, northeastern Tanzania, southern Angola, Namibia, and western Botswana, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern and western Ethiopia, southern Sudan, South Sudan, the eastern Central African Republic, western Gabon, the southern Republic of the Congo, the western and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, northern and western Tanzania, northeastern Zambia, northern Malawi, northern Madagascar, eastern South Africa, and Eswatini. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for Mauritania, central and southwest Mali, the central Central African Republic, the northern Republic of the Congo, the northwestern and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern Somalia, Angola, northern Namibia, southern Zimbabwe, central and southern Mozambique, and southeastern Madagascar. For the long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over Mauritania, Mali, northern Côte d'Ivoire, northern Ghana, Burkina Faso, Niger, Togo Benin, northern Nigeria, the central Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and northern Tanzania, while precipitation is likely to be below-average over southeast Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the southern Republic of the Congo, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Madagascar, Botswana, and eastern South Africa. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region. For additional details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa.
Figure 3: Based on August conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely October-November-December (OND) 2026 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and northeastern Afghanistan, while below-average precipitation is likely over western Kazakhstan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Afghanistan and northwest Kazakhstan. The long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over most of the region. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northern Pakistan, while below-average precipitation is likely over central and eastern India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and northern Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern and western Pakistan, northwestern and southern India, eastern Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, while temperatures are likely to be below-average over northern Nepal. The long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern Pakistan and Sri Lanka, while likely below-average precipitation over eastern and northeast India, eastern Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern China, while below-average precipitation is likely over northeastern and southwestern China and northern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern Mongolia, southern and central China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. The long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Mongolia, northwestern and eastern China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and northern Japan, while likely below-average precipitation over southwest China. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region except for southwestern China.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over eastern Myanmar, northern Laos, northern and eastern Thailand, northern Viet Nam, and the northern Philippines, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern Myanmar, southern Thailand, central Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, northern and central Australia, and northern New Zealand. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Viet Nam, northwestern Cambodia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, southeastern and southwestern Australia, and southern New Zealand, while below-average temperatures are likely over southern Cambodia and northeastern Australia. The long-term October-November-December 2026 forecast(Figures 3 & 4)indicates likely above-average precipitation over Malaysia, northern Viet Nam, northern Laos, central Australia and southern New Zealand, while likely below-average precipitation over western Myanmar, central and southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for northern Australia and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Based on August conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely October-November-December (OND) 2026 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble