Global Crop Monitor
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No. 37: Published October 2nd 2025
Conditions as of September 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of September are currently positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, the spring wheat harvest is wrapping up in the northern hemisphere as winter wheat sowing begins. In the southern hemisphere, conditions remain mostly favourable. For maize, the harvest continues in the northern hemisphere as sowing of the spring-planted crop begins in Brazil. For rice, conditions are overall favourable, despite flooding in Pakistan’s Punjab region and some issues in West Africa. For soybeans, conditions are favourable in the northern hemisphere as harvest picks up pace. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is beginning in Brazil. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions will likely develop during October to December 2025 (71 percent chance, according to CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook) and may continue during December 2025 to February 2026 (54 percent chance). ENSO neutral conditions are likely thereafter.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present and are expected to continue through November (> 77 percent chances, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts) and may persist into December (34 to 53 percent chances).
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In North America, spring wheat harvesting in the US is nearing completion, with above-average yields in the East and below-average yields in the Northern Plains. Sowing of winter wheat is beginning under generally favourable conditions except in the Pacific Northwest due to low soil moisture. In Canada, the spring wheat harvest is progressing with a mix of average to above-average yields. Sowing of winter wheat is beginning. In Europe, the spring wheat harvest in the Russian Federation is progressing, albeit more slowly than average due to excessive rains. Above-average yields are expected in parts of the Volga, the Urals, and Siberia. Winter wheat sowing is ongoing under mixed conditions due to moisture deficits. In Ukraine, sowing is beginning under extremely dry conditions in the main producing southern and eastern regions, which will likely lead to about half of the crop being sown later than average. In Central Asia, recent persistent rains across northern Kazakhstan have delayed spring wheat harvesting work, leading to grain shedding and reduced quality. Spring wheat is underway in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan under favourable conditions. In Afghanistan, wheat harvesting will continue in some areas through early October, and conditions are generally favourable for the late-harvested crops, except in the Central Highlands due to drier-than-normal conditions. In East Asia, harvesting of spring wheat in China is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Mongolia, drier-than-normal conditions this season have lowered yield expectations. In MENA, prolonged dry and hot conditions in Yemen since the start of the first rainy season negatively impacted plantings and constrained yields. In Sub-Saharan Africa, harvesting is underway in Zimbabwe while crops continue to develop in Zambia, South Africa, and Lesotho, and overall conditions remain favourable. In South Africa, wheat is under generally favourable conditions, albeit with recent dry weather in the main producing Western Cape. In Ethiopia, harvest is just beginning with concern in most areas due to delayed rains at the beginning of the season in June and July, followed by a shift to heavy rains and flooding in late July through August. In South America, conditions are favourable in Argentina, as most of the crop develops, and harvest begins in the northern region. In Brazil, the harvest is progressing under favourable conditions, albeit with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, crops continue to develop under favourable conditions. In Chile, conditions are favourable. In Oceania, yields in Australia are expected to be average to above-average across the country due to timely and sufficient rainfall over the winter and September supporting crop development.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In South America, harvesting in Brazil is nearing completion for the summer-planted crop (larger season) with exceptional yields. Sowing has begun for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) under favorable conditions. In Central America & the Caribbean, conditions are favourable for the main season crop in Cuba. In Haiti, the Été season crop is under favourable conditions. In Guatemala, Honduras, and western Nicaragua, late rainfall onset and high temperatures have reduced yields. Conversely, conditions are favourable in El Salvador and eastern Nicaragua. In North America, the harvest in the US is ramping up with above-average yields expected in the northwestern Corn Belt and the Southeast. In Canada, harvesting is in progress under generally favorable conditions. In Mexico, the spring-summer crop (larger season) continues to develop under favorable conditions. In Europe, drought and repeated heatwaves in the southeastern EU have led to yield losses in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania. Elsewhere, conditions are mostly favorable. In Ukraine, harvesting is beginning under mixed conditions due to prolonged drought in the southern and eastern regions. In the Russian Federation, harvesting is progressing under mostly favorable conditions except in the south due to prolonged drought. In Turkey, drought conditions persisted throughout most of the year and have reduced maize yields compared to last year, but they remain within the line of the 5-year average. In Asia, the harvest in China of summer-planted crops continues under favorable conditions. In India, the Kharif crop (larger season) is under favorable conditions, with a significant increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Pakistan, harvesting is underway, with areas of concern in Punjab due to earlier flooding. In Nepal, harvesting is ongoing. In Sri Lanka, the harvest of the Yala season crop (smaller season) is ongoing. In the DPRK, the harvest is wrapping up. In East Africa, harvesting of main/Meher season cereals is just beginning in Ethiopia, while crops continue to develop in Eritrea, South Sudan, and Sudan. However, recent heavy rains and flooding have negatively impacted unimodal areas of South Sudan, Sudan, and much of north and central Ethiopia. Sowing of second-season crops is underway in Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and northern bimodal regions of the United Republic of Tanzania, and the rains have yet to fully establish themselves. In West Africa, harvesting of main season crops is wrapping up as the sowing and development of second-season crops continue. Conditions are overall favourable, albeit with ongoing conflict impacting yields in Mali.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In East Asia, the harvest in China of single-season rice (largest season) is progressing, as the late double-crop (medium season) develops. In the Republic of Korea, the harvest is continuing under favourable conditions, albeit delayed due to an earlier delay in transplanting caused by reduced sunlight and low temperatures in May. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, harvesting is beginning. In Central & South Asia, Kharif rice (larger season) in India is under favourable conditions with an increase in the total sown area compared to last year. In Bangladesh, the sowing of the Aman crop (medium season) is finishing under favourable conditions. In Pakistan, flooding in the Chenab and Sutlej River basins caused crop losses. In Sri Lanka, the harvest of the Yala season crop (smallest season) is continuing. In Nepal, the main season rice is under generally favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, harvesting in Indonesia of earlier sown dry-season rice continues. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Malaysia, planting of wet-season rice has begun under favourable conditions. In Brunei, above-average rainfall has resulted in some flooding and harvesting delays. In Viet Nam, conditions are favourable despite Tropical Cyclone Kajiki causing losses to summer-autumn rice (wet-season) in the north. The flooded areas were promptly drained and replanted. In the south, the harvest of the summer-autumn rice (wet-season) continues as the autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice (wet-season) crops are grain filling. In Thailand, wet-season rice is under generally favourable conditions despite some flooding damage in the Northern and Northeast regions from storms in August. In the Philippines, wet-season rice sown during July to August is in the tillering to panicle formation stages under favourable conditions. In Myanmar, sowing of wet-season rice is wrapping up. In Cambodia, the sowing of wet-season rice is finishing. In the Americas, harvesting is ongoing in the US. Conditions are favourable in Cuba, Haiti, and Honduras. In Brazil, sowing is beginning. In Europe, yield expectations are good across most of the EU. In MENA, conditions remain favourable in Iran and Egypt. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with continuing areas of conflict in Mali and northern and northeastern Nigeria. In the DRC, rainfall has remained erratic.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In North America, the harvest is beginning in the US under favourable to exceptional conditions despite expanding drought in the eastern and southern areas. In Canada, harvest is beginning under generally favourable conditions, albeit with reduced yields in Quebec and parts of eastern Ontario. In Mexico, the harvest is progressing under generally favourable conditions. In Europe, conditions are exceptional in central Europe, while hot and dry weather in southeastern Europe has reduced yields. In Ukraine, harvesting is progressing with expected above-average yields in the western region, while below-average yields are expected in the southern and eastern regions due to prolonged drought. In the Russian Federation, the harvest is ongoing with reduced yields in the south, while it is favourable elsewhere. In Africa, the harvest is ongoing in Nigeria under favourable conditions in central and southern regions, while it is poor in the north and northeast regions due to the ongoing conflict and socio-economic issues. In Asia, harvesting is ongoing in China under favourable conditions. In India, crops continue to develop under favourable conditions. There is a decrease in the total sown area compared to last year. In South America, sowing is just beginning in Brazil, with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions will likely develop during October to December 2025 (71 percent chance, according to CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook) and may continue during December 2025 to February 2026 (54 percent chance). ENSO neutral conditions are likely thereafter. La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based on observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present and are expected to continue through November (> 77 percent chances, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service and Australian Bureau of Meteorology model forecasts) and may persist into December (34 to 53 percent chances). Associated with negative IOD conditions are higher chances of below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa and above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region.
The timing of wet and dry conditions based on Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation (green and brown polygons), and sea surface temperature departures from average during August-September (blue and red shading), related to the IOD. The regions used to define the Dipole Mode Index are outlined in black. Source: FEWS NET 2021: IOD and Precipitation, Agroclimatology Fact Sheet
Global temperatures for August 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. During late August to September, heat waves occurred in China, southwestern Europe, Iran, western North America, and elsewhere. During late September to October, above-average temperatures are forecast in parts of southern, eastern, and northwestern Africa, Argentina, Australia, southern Brazil, Central America, China, Canada, northern Eurasia, southern Europe, Japan, and the United States.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
SubC 30-Day Max Temperature Forecast Anomaly
Period: 25-09-2025 – 24-10-2025
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 25 September 2025, from four Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models. SubC data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures, the current Negative IOD, and the likely development of La Niña conditions.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over southern Mexico, while below-average precipitation over the Ohio and southern Mississippi valleys in the US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern and eastern Canada, the US, and northern and southern Mexico. The long-term October-November-December 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning towards above-average precipitation over western and northern Canada and southern Mexico, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over the central and southern US and northern Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the US, Mexico, and eastern Canada. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for the United States.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast(Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over Guatemala and El Salvador, while below-average precipitation over eastern Nicaragua. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over parts of southern Cuba, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, and central Costa Rica. The long-term October-November-December 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests a leaning towards above-average precipitation over western Cuba, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, southern Honduras, and Nicaragua. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Nicaragua.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 4 – 17 October 2025, issued on 26 September 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Peru, while below-average precipitation over southern Colombia, Ecuador, central and eastern Peru, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and northern Brazil. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central Colombia, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, central and southeastern Brazil, southern Peru, southwestern and northeastern Bolivia, and eastern Paraguay. The long-term October-November-December 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over western Colombia, while leaning towards below-average precipitation over southern Brazil and Uruguay. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Colombia, southern Venezuela, Guyana, eastern Peru, western Brazil, Uruguay, southern Chile, and central and southern Argentina. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for Argentina and Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over the southern United Kingdom, Portugal, western Spain, northern and central France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, southern Poland, southern Norway, central Sweden, eastern Latvia, northern Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, southern Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Greece, Türkiye, and western Georgia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Portugal, Spain, and Estonia, while below-average temperatures are expected over Türkiye, the Russian Federation, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The long-term October-November-December 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over Portugal, Spain, Romania, Bulgaria, eastern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the southern Russian Federation. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for northern Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the southern Russian Federation.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 4 – 17 October 2025, issued on 26 September 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over northwestern and northeastern Iran, northern Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, northeastern Egypt, northern Libya, and western Morocco. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeastern Morocco, central Algeria, Tunisia, southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and southern Iran, while below-average over northern Iran, northern Iraq, Egypt, and eastern Libya. The long-term October-November-December 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over northwest Morocco, northern Syria, northern Iraq, and northern Iran. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, northwest Libya, eastern Egypt, western Saudi Arabia, western Syria, central Iraq, western Iran, the UAE, Oman, and southern Yemen.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Togo, southern Benin, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, southeastern Sudan, southern Eritrea, Ethiopia, Uganda, the western Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi, while below-average precipitation over southwestern Mauritania, northern Senegal, southeast Mali, southwest Niger, western Gabon, southwest Angola, central Namibia, northeast Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeastern Sudan, central Ethiopia, northeastern Somalia, central Kenya, central Tanzania, southern Zambia, northern Botswana, northwestern Zimbabwe, and Madagascar, while below-average over Sierra Leone, Liberia, northern Niger, southern Nigeria, northern and southern Chad, southern and northwestern Sudan, South Sudan, western Ethiopia, northern Central African Republic, Cameroon, Gabon, the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Uganda, and northern Tanzania. Forthelong-term October-November-December 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be below-average over eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, northeastern Tanzania, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and the southern Republic of the Congo. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Mauritania, northern Mali, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, central Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, southern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern and southern Kenya, Uganda, eastern Tanzania, and southern South Africa. For further details, see the CM4EWregional outlooks for East and Southern Africa.
Figure 3: Based on August conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely October-November-December (OND) 2025 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over southern and eastern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, eastern Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and northern Afghanistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average over western and southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan. The long-term October-November-December 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over most of the region except for northern Kazakhstan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Tajikistan, and eastern Afghanistan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central and eastern India, southern Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, while below-average precipitation over northwestern and southern India and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, Bhutan, northern Bangladesh, and southern Sri Lanka, while below-average over southwestern India. The long-term October-November-December 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, while below-average precipitation over northern Pakistan, northern India, and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Pakistan, northeastern India, central Nepal, Bhutan, eastern Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, while below-average over central India. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over north-central China and the eastern Republic of Korea. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southwest and southern China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and Japan. The long-term October-November-December 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over parts of western and eastern China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, and the Republic of Korea. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for southern and northwestern China.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Indonesia and southern Papua New Guinea, while below-average precipitation over southern Thailand, western Malaysia, central Indonesia, and north-central Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, northern Viet Nam, northern Cambodia, the Philippines, parts of Malaysia, parts of western Indonesia, northern Australia, and parts of New Zealand. The long-term October-November-December 2025 forecast(Figures 3 & 4)indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Viet Nam, the Philippines, most of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Australia, while below-average over western Indonesia and Malaysia. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Myanmar, southern Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, southeast Australia, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Based on August conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely October-November-December (OND) 2025 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble