Global Crop Monitor
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No. 38: Published November 6th 2025
Conditions as of October 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of October are currently positive for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, harvesting is beginning in the Southern Hemisphere as the sowing of winter wheat progresses in the Northern Hemisphere, with some areas of concern. For maize, harvesting progresses in the Northern Hemisphere as sowing picks up speed in the Southern Hemisphere. For rice, global conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some damage from major storms in Pakistan, northern Viet Nam, and in the Caribbean. For soybeans, harvest is advancing in the northern hemisphere as sowing progresses in the Southern Hemisphere. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
La Niña conditions are present and will likely continue into early 2026. There is a 71 percent chance of La Niña conditions during November 2025 to January 2026, and a 56 percent chance during December 2025 to February 2026, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook. ENSO neutral conditions are likely thereafter.
Ongoing negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are forecast to continue during November (> 85 percent chances, according to the IRI forecast).
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of October 28th.
In North America, winter wheat sowing continues in the US under generally favourable conditions, though dry weather affects the Pacific Northwest and eastern Midwest. In Canada, winter wheat sowing is progressing. In Europe, sowing is underway in the EU, although delayed in parts of southern Europe, especially in parts of Bulgaria and Romania, due to heavy rainfall. In the Russian Federation, recent rains in the southwest have improved winter wheat sowing and early growth conditions; however, progress remains behind average. In Ukraine, sowing is advancing as recent rains have mitigated the long-term drought in southern and eastern regions. In Central Asia, spring wheat harvesting in Kazakhstan is nearly complete as sowing of winter wheat begins. In Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan, sowing of winter wheat is beginning under favourable conditions. In South Asia, sowing is beginning in Pakistan under favourable conditions. In Nepal, sowing of winter wheat is beginning under favourable conditions. In East Asia, sowing of winter wheat has been delayed in the North China Plain due to heavy rainfall and the delayed autumn crop harvesting. In MENA, early-season dryness is impacting sowing progress in Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, while agro-climatic conditions are favourable for ongoing planting in Tunisia. In Sub-Saharan Africa, winter wheat harvesting is ongoing under mixed conditions in South Africa as dry conditions over the winter rainfall region, which covers the main producing province of the Western Cape, since August have hurt dryland production. Conditions are favourable over the summer rainfall region, where there is above-normal soil moisture and reservoirs are full, supporting irrigated crops. In Zambia, there was a reduced planted area for wheat this season, though current yield prospects are favourable. In Zimbabwe, the wheat harvest is expected at record levels. In Lesotho, the harvest is ongoing under favourable conditions. In South America, harvest in Argentina is beginning in the northern regions, with most crops growing under favorable conditions. In Brazil, the harvest is ongoing under favourable conditions, albeit with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, the harvest is beginning under favourable conditions. In Chile, dry weather is of some concern. In Oceania, harvest has just started in Australia under mixed conditions due to ongoing dryness in the southeast, while exceptional conditions are present in Western Australia.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of October 28th.
In South America, sowing in Brazil of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is continuing under favorable conditions, and a significant increase in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Argentina, the sowing of the early-planted crop (larger season) is wrapping up. In Central America & the Caribbean, conditions are mixed for eastern Cuba and Haiti after the passage of Tropical Storm Melissa in late October, which brought heavy rain, strong winds, and flooding. In Guatemala, erratic precipitation and high temperatures have resulted in delayed sowings for the Segunda/Postrera season. In North America, harvest is continuing in the US with above-average yields expected in the northwestern Corn Belt, albeit with some delays due to recent heavy rains. In Canada, harvest is wrapping up. In Mexico, excessive rainfall and flooding have negatively impacted the spring-summer crop season (larger season) in some areas. In Europe, harvesting is ongoing under mostly favourable conditions; however, yields in southeastern Europe are below-average due to persistent drought. In Ukraine, harvesting is continuing, albeit with reduced yields in the southern and eastern regions, due to the prolonged drought. In the Russian Federation, harvesting is continuing under mixed conditions. In Türkiye, harvest is wrapping up under mostly favourable conditions. In East Asia, the harvest of summer-planted crops advances as excessive rainfall causes delays and reduced yields in the Huang-Huai-Hai region. In South Asia, the Kharif crop (larger season) in India is being harvested, with a noticeable increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Pakistan, the harvest is ongoing, with areas of concern in Punjab due to earlier flooding. In Sri Lanka, the harvest of the Yala season crop (smaller season) is finalizing as the sowing of the Maha season crop (larger season) begins. In Indonesia, harvesting of dry-season crops continues as the sowing of wet-season crops begins. In Southeast Asia, conditions are generally favourable across the region as wet-season crops are harvested in the northern countries and dry-season crops continue to be harvested in the southern countries. In East Africa, harvesting of main season crops is underway in Ethiopia (Meher season), unimodal rainfall areas of central and northern South Sudan, while crops continue to develop in Eritrea and Sudan. In Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania, sowing and development of second-season crops continues with concern in most areas due to a delayed and drier-than-average start to the season. However, conditions are favourable in unimodal regions of Kenya and Uganda. In West Africa, the sowing and development of second-season crops continue in Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, and Cameroon.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of October 28th.
In East Asia, the harvest in China of single-season rice (largest season) and the late double-crop (medium season) progresses. In Japan, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In the Republic of Korea, the harvest is finishing under favourable conditions. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, harvesting is finalizing under favourable conditions. In Central & South Asia, conditions are favourable in India for Kharif rice (larger season) as harvesting progresses in the northern part of the country. In Bangladesh, early harvesting of the Aman crop (medium season) is beginning. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of the Yala season crop (smallest season) is wrapped up under favourable conditions. Sowing of the Maha season crop (largest season) is beginning. In Nepal, the main season rice is under mostly favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice in Indonesia advances as the sowing of wet-season rice begins with the start of rainfall in early October. In Malaysia, harvesting of dry-season rice wraps up as the sowing of wet-season rice continues. In Brunei, the harvest of dry-season rice continues as sowing begins for wet-season rice. In Viet Nam, tropical storms in late September caused damage to summer-autumn rice (wet-season) in the north. In the south, the harvest of the summer-autumn rice (wet-season) is wrapping up as the harvest of autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice (wet-season) begins. In Thailand, wet-season rice is under generally favourable conditions despite some recent flood damage from several tropical storms (Bualoi & Matmo). In the Philippines, conditions are favourable for wet-season rice, albeit with some losses from the combined effects of the southwest monsoon and five tropical cyclones. In Myanmar, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, harvesting of wet-season rice has begun. In the Americas, harvesting is finishing in the US. Eastern Cuba and Haiti have been impacted by excessive rainfall from the passing of Tropical Storm Melissa in late October. In Brazil, sowing is picking up pace with an expected decrease in total sown area compared to last year. In MENA, harvesting in Egypt of the summer-planted rice is wrapping up as the Nili season (Nile flood) rice crop develops. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are favourable except for continuing areas of conflict in Mali and northern and northeastern Nigeria. In the DRC, dry conditions remain in the west.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of October 28th.
In North America, the harvest in the US is progressing with average to above-average yields, albeit with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, harvest is finishing under generally favourable conditions except in Manitoba, where yields were reduced due to dry weather during the key developmental periods and then late-season heavy rain and flooding. In Mexico, the harvest is continuing under generally favourable conditions. In Europe, harvest is wrapping up with exceptional conditions in central Europe, while hot and dry weather in southeastern Europe has reduced yields. In Ukraine, harvesting is advancing with above-average yields in the western region, while below-average yields are expected in the southern and eastern regions due to the long-term drought. In the Russian Federation, the harvest is progressing with reduced yields in the south, while it is favourable elsewhere. In Africa, the harvest is finalizing in Nigeria under favourable conditions in central and southern regions, while it is poor in the north and northeast regions due to the ongoing conflict and socio-economic issues. In Asia, harvest in China is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In India, harvest is nearing completion with the total sown area slightly lower than last year due to excess rains earlier in the season, especially in parts of Madhya Pradesh state. In South America, sowing is just ongoing in Brazil under favourable conditions, with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
La Niña conditions are present and will likely continue into early 2026. There is a 71 percent chance of La Niña conditions during November 2025 to January 2026, and a 56 percent chance during December 2025 to February 2026, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook. ENSO neutral conditions are likely thereafter.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based on observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Ongoing negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are forecast to continue during November (> 85 percent chances, according to the IRI forecast), raising the chances that below-average rainfall will continue to impact eastern East Africa during the short rains season. Crops and pasture conditions in Somalia could be severely affected if below-average rainfall forecasts materialize.
The timing of wet and dry conditions based on Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation (green and brown polygons), and sea surface temperature departures from average during August-September (blue and red shading), related to the IOD. The regions used to define the Dipole Mode Index are outlined in black. Source: FEWS NET 2021: IOD and Precipitation, Agroclimatology Fact Sheet
Global temperatures for September 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Between late September and October, there were usually high levels of heat in Australia, Bangladesh, southeast China, eastern East Africa, Iran, northern Mexico, the southern United States, and elsewhere. During November, above-average temperatures are forecast across western, central, and eastern Asia, Europe, northern Brazil, Somalia, North Africa, the Middle East, North America, and southern South America.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 30 October 2025, from four Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models. SubC data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures and the ongoing Negative IOD and La Niña conditions.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over northwestern Canada, the southern and eastern United States, and northwestern Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. The long-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over most of Canada and the northwestern US, while a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the southern and eastern US and northern Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Canada, most of the continental US, and most of Mexico. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for the United States.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast(Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over parts of southern Cuba, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The long-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests a likelihood of above-average precipitation over most of the region. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Nicaragua.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 November 2025, issued on 31 October 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northwest Colombia, central east Brazil, while below-average precipitation over southwestern Colombia, northwestern Ecuador, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and southern Brazil, central Peru, northern Bolivia, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Colombia, eastern and western Venezuela, Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, northern and western Brazil, Peru, northern Bolivia, central and southern Argentina, and southern Chile. The long-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over western Colombia, while leaning towards below-average precipitation over southern and northeast Brazil, western Ecuador, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Chile. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, northeastern Peru, western and northeastern Brazil, Uruguay, southern Chile, and Argentina. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for Argentina.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Portugal, western Spain, eastern France, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, western Greece, eastern Belarus, eastern Ukraine, southwestern Romania, the western and eastern Russian Federation, and western Türkiye. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of Europe except for eastern Ukraine, northern Türkiye, the southern Russian Federation, Georgia, and eastern Azerbaijan. The long-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the eastern Russian Federation, while a likelihood of below-average precipitation over Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the southern Russian Federation. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region, with the highest likelihood on lands surrounding the Mediterranean Sea.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 November 2025, issued on 31 October 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over eastern Syria, Iraq, Iran, northern Saudi Arabia, and western Morocco. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region, with the highest likelihood over Syria, Iraq, and Kuwait. The long-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over Jordan, Syria, northern Iraq, and Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, northwestern Saudi Arabia, Jordan, western Syria, Iraq, western Iran, and southern Yemen.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Sierra Leone, western Liberia, northern Côte d'Ivoire, northern Ghana, southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, southwest Angola, Zambia, Malawi, central Mozambique, northeastern Namibia, Madagascar, and Lesotho, while below-average precipitation over eastern Cameroon, southern Chad, the Central African Republic, central South Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, eastern Uganda, northern Tanzania. During this time, temperatures are leaning towards above-average over northern Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, northern Côte d'Ivoire, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, central Ethiopia, southwest Kenya, eastern Uganda, and northern Tanzania, while below-average over the eastern Central African Republic, South Sudan, southeastern Angola, western Zambia, northern Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar. Forthelong-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be below-average over Gabon, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, eastern Uganda, and Tanzania. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for Ethiopia, northern Somalia, northern Kenya, northern Burkina Faso, southern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, and central and northern South Africa. For further details, see the CM4EWregional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa, along with the CM4AMIS outlook on South Africa.
Figure 3: Based on August conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely November-December-January (NDJ) 2025/26 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northwestern and southeast Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, eastern and western Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Afghanistan and southeastern Tajikistan, while below-average over central Uzbekistan and central Turkmenistan. The long-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over most of the region except for northern Kazakhstan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Kyrgyzstan, eastern Tajikistan, and eastern Afghanistan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northern and western Pakistan, northwestern and southern India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Pakistan, northwest and northeast India, eastern Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and southwestern Sri Lanka, while below-average over central India. The long-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southeastern India, while below-average precipitation over northern Pakistan, northwestern India, and western Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Pakistan, northeastern India, central Nepal, Bhutan, northern Bangladesh, and southern Sri Lanka, while below-average over central India. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central and eastern China, and southern Japan, while likely below-average over southwestern and northeastern China, eastern Mongolia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the western Republic of Korea, and northern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central and eastern China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and Japan. The long-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over parts of western and eastern China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, and the Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for southern China.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Myanmar, northern Thailand, Laos, the northern Philippines, and northern Australia, while below-average precipitation over southern Thailand, western Malaysia, western and central Indonesia, and eastern Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, western Thailand, northwestern Laos, northern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, western and central Indonesia, northern Australia, and parts of New Zealand, while below-average over eastern Cambodia and western and southeastern Australia. The long-term November-December-January 2025/26 forecast(Figures 3 & 4)indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Viet Nam, the Philippines, most of Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea, while below-average over western Malaysia and northern Viet Nam. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Myanmar, southern Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Based on August conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely November-December-January (NDJ) 2025/26 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble