Global Crop Monitor
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No. 39: Published December 4th 2025
Conditions as of November 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of November are overall positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, harvesting is progressing in the Southern Hemisphere as winter wheat prepares for dormancy across much of the Northern Hemisphere. For maize, harvesting is wrapping up in the Northern Hemisphere as sowing picks up speed in the Southern Hemisphere. For rice, global conditions are favourable; however, in northern Southeast Asia, a strong southwest monsoon and several tropical storms negatively impacted wet-season rice in some countries. For soybeans, harvest is finishing in the northern hemisphere as sowing progresses in the Southern Hemisphere. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
La Niña conditions are present and will likely subside in early 2026. There is a 51 percent chance of La Niña during December 2025 to February 2026 and a 61 percent chance of neutral ENSO during January to March 2026. IOD conditions will likely return to neutral in December.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of November 28th.
In North America, winter wheat in the US is under mixed conditions due to areas of dryness in the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Great Plains, and the southern Great Plains. In Canada, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions, albeit with some areas of low soil moisture. In Europe, sowing in the EU is mostly complete with crops approaching winter dormancy under generally favourable conditions. In Ukraine, recent warm weather, along with good soil moisture, has helped to advance winter wheat development. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat conditions remain favourable, albeit with an expected reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Central Asia, winter wheat in Kazakhstan is under favourable conditions. In Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, sowing of winter wheat is continuing under favourable conditions. In Afghanistan, dry conditions are hindering planting and crop establishment. In South Asia, sowing in India is further along than last year due to supportive October rains and an earlier start to sowing than normal. In Pakistan, sowing is ongoing. In Nepal, sowing of winter wheat is continuing under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, sowing is beginning. In East Asia, winter wheat sowing in China is progressing, although with some concern remaining in the North China Plain for total sown area due to earlier heavy rainfall and the delayed autumn crop harvesting. In MENA, sowing for 2025/26 winter cereal crops began in October and will continue through December across Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. There are ongoing dry concerns in most areas due to minimal rainfall received between October and November, and water availability for irrigation is low due to dry conditions in the previous season. Conversely, growing conditions remain favourable in central and eastern Algeria and bordering areas of western Tunisia, and in Egypt, where crops are mostly irrigated. In Sub-Saharan Africa, winter wheat harvesting in South Africa is ongoing under mixed conditions due to dryness over the main producing Western Cape; conversely, good rainfall supported exceptional crops in Free State and the North West provinces. In Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Zimbabwe, record wheat production is expected. In South America, harvest is progressing southward in Argentina with good overall yields despite localized variability. In Brazil, the harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions, albeit with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, the harvest is ongoing under favourable conditions. In Chile, dry conditions remain. In Oceania, harvesting in Australia is well underway with exceptionally high yields expected across Western Australia and Queensland.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of November 28th.
In South America, sowing in Brazil of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is progressing with a significant increase in total sown area expected compared to last year. Despite some extreme weather events in the South region, conditions are favourable. In Argentina, the early-planted crop (larger season) is developing under favourable conditions, supported by good soil moisture levels. In Uruguay, sowing is advancing under favourable conditions. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvesting in Cuba of the main season crop is wrapping up as the sowing of the second season is just beginning. In Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, erratic rains and high temperatures are negatively affecting the Segunda/Postrera season crops. In El Salvador, conditions are favourable. In North America, the harvest in the US is wrapping up with above-average yields expected. In Canada, the harvest is finishing under favourable conditions. In Mexico, the harvesting of the spring-summer crop season (larger season) is beginning under mixed conditions due to earlier excessive rainfall. Sowing of the autumn-winter season (smaller season) is beginning under favourable conditions. In Europe, harvesting in Ukraine is progressing under mixed conditions due to prolonged drought and war in the southern and eastern regions. In South Asia, sowing in India of the Rabi crop (smaller season) is beginning. In Pakistan, harvesting of the Kharif (summer) season maize is nearing completion. In Sri Lanka, the sowing of the Maha season crop (larger season) continues. In Bangladesh, sowing of the Rabi season crop is ongoing. In Southeast Asia, harvesting in Indonesia of the dry-season crop is progressing as the sowing of the wet-season crop continues. In the Philippines, recent typhoons and heavy rains resulted in significant damage and yield reductions to wet-season crops. In Thailand, wet-season crops are being harvested. In Viet Nam, harvesting is ongoing for wet-season crops, with several provinces negatively affected by tropical storms and flooding. In East Africa, harvesting of main-season crops is underway in Ethiopia (Meher season), unimodal rainfall areas of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, and Yemen under mixed conditions. Sowing and second-season crops continue in Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania, with ongoing concern in most areas due to a delayed and dry season. In West Africa, harvesting of second-season crops is underway in Nigeria, while development continues in Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, and Cameroon. In Southern Africa, sowing is underway in South Africa, supported by ample rainfall since October. In Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, eSwatini, and Lesotho, sowing is just beginning.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of November 28th.
In East Asia, the harvest in China of the late double-crop (medium season) is wrapping up. In Central & South Asia, harvesting is progressing in India for Kharif rice (larger season) into the southern and eastern regions. Sowing of Rabi rice (smaller crop) is in the early stages. In Bangladesh, harvesting of the Aman crop (medium season) is peaking as the sowing of the Boro crop (largest season) begins. In Sri Lanka, sowing of the Maha season crop (largest season) is ongoing under mixed conditions due to heavy rains, flooding, and landslides from Cyclone Ditwah. In Nepal, harvesting of the main season rice is wrapping up under mostly favourable conditions except in the main producing Madhesh Province located in the southeast, which experienced rainfall deficits in June and July. In Pakistan, harvesting of the Kharif (summer) season rice is mostly finalized. Despite significant flooding impacts in late June through September across many areas, end-of-season conditions are mostly favourable. In Afghanistan, harvesting is wrapping up. In Southeast Asia, harvesting in Indonesia of dry-season rice is wrapping up as the sowing of wet-season rice slowly continues, as farmers wait for more rain. In Malaysia, harvesting of dry-season rice wraps up as the sowing of wet-season rice progresses. In Brunei, the sowing of wet-season rice continues. In Viet Nam, harvesting of summer-autumn rice (wet-season) in the north is finishing. In the south, harvesting of the autumn-winter rice and seasonal rice (wet-season) is also wrapping up as the sowing of dry-season rice begins. In Thailand, wet-season rice is being harvested under mixed conditions due to severe flooding in the northern regions during October. In the Philippines, harvesting is ongoing for wet-season rice under poor conditions due to widespread lodging and flooding caused by several typhoons. In Myanmar, harvesting for wet-season rice is underway. In Cambodia, harvesting of wet-season rice is ongoing as the sowing of dry-season rice is delayed by unstable weather. In the Americas, sowing is continuing in Brazil under favourable conditions, albeit with an expected reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Cuba, harvesting of main-season rice is wrapping up as sowing of second-season rice begins. In Honduras, harvesting of main-season rice is wrapping up. In MENA, the Nili season (Nile flood) rice crop develops in Egypt. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions remain favourable outside of the regions with conflict in Mali and Nigeria. In the DRC, dry conditions remain in the west.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of November 28th.
In North America, the harvest is wrapping up in the US under favourable to exceptional conditions. In Canada, harvest is completing under favourable conditions and is supported by an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In South America, sowing is progressing in Brazil under favourable conditions despite irregular rain in some regions and extreme weather events, like strong winds and hail in the South region. An increase in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Argentina, sowing is advancing for the early-planting (typically larger season), albeit with a few delays due to excess soil moisture in some areas. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable as the harvest is beginning with early sown crops. In Africa, above-average rainfall over South Africa’s summer rainfall region since October is supporting the sowing efforts.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
La Niña conditions are present and will likely subside in early 2026. There is a 51 percent chance of La Niña during December 2025 to February 2026 and a 61 percent chance of neutral ENSO during January to March 2026, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook.
La Niña conditions typically increase the chances of below-average precipitation in East Africa, Central and South Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia, while typically increasing the chances of above-average precipitation in parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based on observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
The timing of wet and dry conditions based on Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation (green and brown polygons), and sea surface temperature departures from average during August-September (blue and red shading), related to the IOD. The regions used to define the Dipole Mode Index are outlined in black. Source: FEWS NET 2021: IOD and Precipitation, Agroclimatology Fact Sheet
The combination of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and La Niña conditions during October and November 2025 severely impacted eastern East Africa’s short rains season, with below-average rainfall, hotter-than-average temperatures, and poor crop and pasture conditions in Somalia and northern and eastern Kenya. Above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region, consistent with negative IOD and La Niña, was also observed. In December, IOD conditions will likely return to neutral.
Global temperatures for October 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Record-breaking maximum temperatures occurred during November in northern Canada, the Middle East, the southern United States, and elsewhere. During December 2025, abnormally cold temperatures are forecast in Canada and the United States. Abnormally hot conditions are forecast across central and eastern Africa, and in western and eastern Australia, northern Argentina, and southwestern and eastern Brazil. Temperatures will likely be warmer than normal in central Asia, Europe, Mexico, and the southern United States.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 27 November 2025, from four Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models. SubC data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures and the ongoing Negative IOD and La Niña conditions.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the Canadian Prairies, the southwestern US, and central Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the southeastern US, while below-average over eastern Canada and the US northeast. The long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over most of Canada and the northern US, while a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the southern US and northwestern Mexico. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Canada, most of the US, and all of Mexico. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for the United States.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over parts of southern Cuba, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests a likelihood of above-average precipitation over most of the region. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region except for Costa Rica and Panama.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 December 2025, issued on 28 November 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southeastern and central west Brazil, northern Bolivia, northwestern Argentina, and northern Chile, while below-average precipitation over northeastern Colombia, northwestern Venezuela, French Guiana, northeastern and southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, Uruguay, central and eastern Argentina, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western northwestern Venezuela, Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, northern and northeastern Brazil, southern Argentina, and southern Chile, while below-average over western Colombia, northern Chile, and southern Bolivia. The long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Colombia, southern Venezuela, and northwestern Brazil, while leaning towards below-average precipitation over southern and northeast Brazil, eastern Argentina, and Uruguay. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Colombia, central and northern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and western Brazil, eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, Uruguay, central Chile, and Argentina. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Ireland, western Norway, northern Sweden, and Finland, while below-average over Portugal, Spain, southern France, northern Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, southern Romania, central and southern Ukraine, the southern and eastern Russian Federation, northwestern Türkiye. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of Europe except for Portugal, Spain, Ireland, the United Kingdom, southern Italy, northern Poland, northern Türkiye, and the eastern Russian Federation. The long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, and the northern Russian Federation. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 December 2025, issued on 28 November 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over southern Tunisia, central Libya, southeastern Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, western and southern Iran, and northern Saudi Arabia, while below-average precipitation over northern Morocco, northern Libya, and northern Egypt. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Tunisia, eastern Libya, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Jordon, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, northeastern Yemen, Oman, and Iran, while below-average over southern Algeria. The long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) does not forecast any changes in precipitation patterns from normal currently. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for the Middle East and North Africa.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern and eastern Nigeria, Cameroon, western Central African Republic, and Madagascar, while below-average precipitation over southern South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, northern Malawi, northeastern Zambia, southern and northern Angola, and Namibia. During this time, temperatures are likely towards above-average over eastern Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, western South Sudan, southern Gabon, the Central African Republic, southeastern Uganda, southwestern and eastern Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, eastern Zambia, northern Mozambique, and eastern Madagascar. For the long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is leaning towards above-average over Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, the Central African Republic, western South Sudan, and the northern Democratic Republic of Congo. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for over southern Angola, southern Zambia, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, central and southern Mozambique, western Madagascar, and central and northern South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa, along with the CM4AMIS outlook on South Africa.
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for December 2025 to February 2026 precipitation, based on November initial conditions. Probabilities are based on C3S multi-system seasonal forecasts from ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Programme
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Kazakhstan and eastern Kyrgyzstan. The long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over northern Kazakhstan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northern Pakistan, southern India, and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Pakistan, northwest and northeast India, and northern Bangladesh, while below-average over central India. The long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern India, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northern India, and Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Pakistan, northwestern and northeastern India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and southern Sri Lanka, while below-average over central India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over central Mongolia, China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central and western China and western Japan, while below-average temperatures are expected over northern China. The long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over northern Mongolia and northeastern China, while below-average precipitation over parts of southeastern China, the Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Viet Nam, the Philippines, and central east Australia, while below-average precipitation over northern Viet Nam, northern Laos, southeastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and southern Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, parts of the Philippines, parts of Malaysia, parts of Indonesia, southwestern Australia, and parts of New Zealand, while below-average over Laos, Cambodia, eastern Thailand, southern Viet Nam, and northcentral Australia. The long-term December-January-February 2025/26 forecast(Figures 3 & 4)indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Viet Nam and the Philippines, while below-average precipitation over central Indonesia. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, southern Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, western Australia, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for December 2025 to February 2026 temperature, based on November initial conditions. Probabilities are based on C3S multi-system seasonal forecasts from ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Programme