Global Crop Monitor
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No. 41: Published March 5th 2026
Conditions as of February 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of February remain generally positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, conditions are overall favourable, albeit with some areas of concern in North America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and East Africa. For maize, global conditions are generally favourable; however, areas of dryness persist in Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. For rice, overall conditions are favourable; however, there are some concerns in Cambodia, the Caribbean, and in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. For soybeans, recent rainfall in Argentina has been supportive as harvesting progresses in Brazil. The remaining crops are detailed in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
La Niña conditions were present but in decline during February 2026. ENSO conditions will most likely be neutral during March to May 2026 (90 percent chance). There are increasing chances that an El Niño event will develop this year, potentially between August and October 2026 (59 percent chance). If El Niño conditions develop during 2026, these will likely have a warming effect on global temperatures.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of February 28th.
In North America, concerns in the US due to drought and earlier exposure to cold weather remain for a large portion of winter wheat areas, particularly in the northern and southern Great Plains. In Canada, winter wheat remains under mixed conditions, as winter moisture has been insufficient across most areas. In Mexico, the autumn-winter season crop is under favourable conditions, albeit with a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Europe, conditions remain generally favourable in the EU; however, a cold spell in late January and early February with significantly below-average temperatures occurred over parts of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, with sometimes little snow cover, raising concerns for local winterkill damages. In the UK, conditions are favourable for the crop in dormancy. In Türkiye, winter precipitation has restored soil moisture levels in support of crops. In Ukraine, unusually cold weather continued in February, while protective snow cover was present in most regions, winterkill losses are likely in parts of the central regions where snowfall was insufficient. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat conditions remain generally favourable with adequate insulating snow cover over most regions. In Central Asia, winter wheat continues to develop in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan under favourable conditions. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat conditions are favourable. In the southeast, crops are still dormant, while in the south, temperatures have been above-average, and the resumption of growth has begun in some areas. In Afghanistan, a dry start to the season was followed by rainfall improvements that benefitted healthy germination of sown seeds and contributed to favourable crop development. In South Asia, conditions are favourable in India with an increase in total sown area compared to last year and the five-year average. In Pakistan, conditions are favourable with an increase in total sown area compared to the average. In Nepal, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions, except for dryness in the west. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable. In East Asia, winter wheat in China remains dormant in the north under favourable conditions. In MENA, early-season dry conditions negatively impacted planting activities and crop emergence in many areas and continue to cause concern in western Algeria, Libya, much of Syria, and parts of Iran. In Morocco, conditions are favourable after a delayed and drier than average start to the season. In Tunisia, rainfall in December and January has improved conditions. In Lebanon, conditions are favourable. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conflict remains a concern in Sudan. In Tanzania, early-season rainfall deficits are of concern.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of February 28th.
In South America, the harvesting in Brazil of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is ongoing under favourable conditions, despite a lack of rain and high temperatures in the South Region. Sowing of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is progressing with early crop development under favourable conditions. In Argentina, conditions are mixed as the harvest of the early-planted crops (larger season) is progressing with highly variable yields. Recent rainfall has helped to improve conditions for the late-planted crop (smaller season); however, central and southeastern Buenos Aires have not received significant rainfall, making short-term precipitation critical for final yields. In Uruguay, conditions are poor due to little rainfall, and the crop is now being harvested for animal consumption. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvesting in Mexico of the spring-summer crop wraps up under generally favourable conditions despite excessively wet conditions earlier in the season. Conditions of the autumn-winter season (smaller season) are favourable. In Cuba, the second-season crop is being negatively impacted by dry conditions. In South Asia, conditions in India are favourable for the Rabi crop (smaller season). In Sri Lanka, harvesting of the Maha season crop (larger season) is ongoing under mixed conditions due to the impacts of Cyclone Ditwah. In Bangladesh, the Rabi/winter crop is under favourable conditions. In Nepal, conditions are favourable except for dryness in the west. In Southeast Asia, the sowing in Indonesia of the wet-season crop continues, as harvesting of earlier sown crops progresses. In Malaysia, conditions are favourable. In the Philippines, the dry-season maize seeded from September to October is being harvested. In Thailand, dry-season crops are beginning to be harvested under favourable conditions. In Viet Nam, dry-season maize is continuing to be sown in the northern region as sowing begins in the south. In Myanmar, dry-season maize sowing is advancing under favourable conditions. In Laos, dry-season maize is under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, dry-season maize is under favourable conditions. In East Africa, harvesting of the second-season crop finalized in Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, and Tanzania under mixed conditions. The sowing and development of first-season crops is underway in bimodal areas of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania. Delayed rains are causing concern in Tanzania, while the start of the season conditions are favourable elsewhere. In Southern Africa, recent timely rains in South Africa have supported exceptional conditions. Harvesting is beginning in Angola and Zambia, while crops continue to develop in Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, eSwatini, and Lesotho.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of February 28th.
In Central &South Asia, conditions are favorable in India as the transplanting of the Rabi and Summer crops (smaller seasons) continues. In Bangladesh, the transplanting of the Boro crop (the largest season) is progressing. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of the Maha season crop (largest season) is ongoing with concerns due to the damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah. In Southeast Asia,the sowing in Indonesia of wet-season rice is wrapping up with a decrease in total sown area compared to last season. Harvesting of earlier-sown crops continues under favorable conditions. In Malaysia, the wet-season rice is generally favourable, although several areas experienced uneven rainfall in early February. Harvesting has begun in some areas. In Brunei, harvesting of wet-season rice is 20 percent complete in irrigated areas, while crops are in the grain filling stage in rainfed areas. In Viet Nam, sowing of winter-spring (dry-season) rice continues in the south, as sowing begins in the north. Harvesting is starting in the Mekong River Delta. In Thailand, dry-season rice is in the young panicle-forming to grain-filling stages under favorable conditions. In Laos, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, dry-season rice conditions are favorable due to ample water supply and good weather. In Myanmar, sowing of dry-season rice is continuing under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, sowing dry-season rice continues under favourable conditions with a decrease compared to the previous year, particularly in the northwest region. In the Americas, the harvest in Brazil is beginning under favourable conditions. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable as harvest begins. In Mexico, sowing of the autumn-winter crop is continuing under favourable conditions. In Cuba, the second-season rice crop is being negatively impacted by dry weather and the limited availability of fuel and agricultural inputs. In Honduras, harvesting of second-season rice continues under favourable conditions. In Haiti, harvesting of second-season rice is just beginning, and recent wet conditions are negatively impacting harvesting prospects. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions remain poor in Mali due to conflict. In Kenya, rice harvesting is now complete, with poor outcomes expected in the centre due to dry and hot weather conditions. In Tanzania, conditions are mixed due to early-season rainfall deficits. In Mozambique, exceptionally heavy rainfall resulted in widespread, severe flooding across the southern areas. In Madagascar, conditions are mixed.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of February 28th.
In South America, the harvest continues in Brazil under favorable conditions despite some negative effects in Rio Grande do Sul caused by a lack of rain and high temperatures. An increase in the total sown area is anticipated compared to last year. In Argentina, recent rainfall, though uneven, has supported growing conditions. The early-planting crop (larger season) is developing mostly under favorable conditions, while the late-planted crop (smaller season) is in a critical growth stage and will need ongoing rainfall to ensure optimal yields. In Uruguay, crops continue to suffer from water stress as rainfall has been little and unevenly distributed. In Africa, conditions remain favourable in South Africa owing to recent timely rains and above-average rainfall earlier in the season. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year and the five-year average.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
La Niña conditions were present but in decline during February 2026. ENSO conditions will most likely be neutral during March to May 2026 (90 percent chance) according to the NOAA CPC ENSO Outlook. There are increasing chances that an El Niño event will develop this year, potentially between August and October 2026 (59 percent chance). While long-range forecasts made at this time of year can be unreliable, El Niño events can have widespread, global impacts. If El Niño conditions develop during 2026, these will likely have a warming effect on global temperatures.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based on observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
During late February through mid-March, above-average temperatures are forecast in northwestern, central-western, and southeastern Africa, southern South America, southern and western Asia, southern and eastern Canada, Europe, Japan, northern Mexico, Madagascar, western Russia, and the United States. Warmer-than-average temperatures can negatively impact snowpack development and have already been an issue in central-southern Asia in recent weeks and the United States in recent months. Below-average temperatures are forecast in parts of central-northern and eastern Africa, southeast Asia, central Australia, and the Middle East.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Maximum temperature forecast anomaly for the next 30 days starting on 29 January 2026, from four Subseasonal Consortium (SubC) models. SubC data accessed from the IRI Data Library. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures and the ongoing La Niña conditions.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over eastern Canada and the US Midwest and southern Great Plains, while below-average precipitation over the US west coast. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for northern Canada and the northwestern US. The long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over western Canada, the US Midwest, and central Mexico, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over the southwest US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region, with the highest likelihood over the central and southern US and Mexico. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the USA.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over parts of Belize, Guatemala, southern Nicaragua, central Costa Rica, and southern Cuba. The long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests a leaning towards above-average precipitation over southern Guatemala, southern Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 March, issued on 27 February 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Colombia, Venezuela, and western Ecuador, while below-average precipitation over central and eastern Brazil and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, the majority of Brazil, Bolivia, southern Peru, Paraguay, Chile, and northeastern Argentina, while below-average over western Colombia and central Venezuela. The long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests a leaning towards above-average precipitation over southern Colombia, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northern Venezuela and eastern Brazil. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Argentina.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average over eastern Spain, while below-average precipitation over Ireland, the UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, France, Belgium., the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Poland, Czechia, northern Switzerland, northern Austria, Slovakia, northern Hungary, Ukraine, southern Greece, southwestern Türkiye, and the western Russian Federation. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeastern Spain, southeastern France, Switzerland, southern Germany, the northern United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, western Finland, northern Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Albania, and northwestern Greece, while below-average over eastern Ukraine, the southern Russian Federation, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and eastern Türkiye. The long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over northern Europe, while below-average precipitation over southern Spain and southern Portugal. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Italy, eastern Austria, Hungary, western Ukraine, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bulgaria,
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 March, issued on 27 February 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over southern Tunisia, northwestern Libya, eastern Saudi Arabia, eastern Oman, and eastern Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Algeria, Tunisia, western Libya, and southeastern Iran. The long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over Morocco and northern Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for Morocco and northern Algeria.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southeastern Kenya, central Tanzania, northern Mozambique, central Zambia, southern Malawi, southern Angola, northern Namibia, central Botswana, and northern Madagascar, while below-average precipitation over eastern Liberia, eastern Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, central and southern Nigeria, Cameroon, southern Chad, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Republic co the Congo, northwestern Angola, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, northwestern Uganda, Ethiopia, and southern and northern Somalia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Mauritania, Mali, Senegal, western Guinea, northern Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, northern Niger, southern Cameroon, eastern Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, central Angola, southern Somalia, Malawi, central Mozambique, and Madagascar. For the long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be below-average over Sierra Leone, central Guinea, Liberia, and southern Côte d'Ivoire. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Niger, northern Chad, Sudan, southern Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, western South Sudan, Somalia, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, northern Mozambique, Madagascar, and southern South Africa. For additional details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa and the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for South Africa.
Figure 3: Based on September conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely March-April-May (MAM) 2026 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern and southeastern Kazakhstan, while below-average precipitation over eastern Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over southern Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan, while below-average over western Kazakhstan, western Uzbekistan, and western Turkmenistan. The long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over most of the region except for northern Kazakhstan and southern Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. For additional details, see the CM4EW Regional Outlook for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Bhutan, northeastern India, and Bangladesh, while below-average precipitation over Pakistan, northwestern to southern India, Sri Lanka, and western Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for eastern India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. The long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates leaning towards above-average precipitation over central India, while a likelihood of below-average precipitation over northeastern India. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern and southern Pakistan, western and northeastern India, and southern Sri Lanka. For additional details, see the CM4EW Regional Outlook for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southwestern China, while below-average precipitation is likely over northwestern China and northern Mongolia, while below-average precipitation is likely over western and southeastern China, northeastern Mongolia, and southern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of China, western Mongolia, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and Japan. The long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over central-west China, while below-average precipitation over parts of northwestern and southeastern China and southern Japan. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region except for northeastern China.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern Myanmar, northern Laos, the Philippines, and northern and central Australia, while below-average precipitation over northern Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and central Papua New Guinea. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Malaysia, central and eastern Indonesia, central Papua New Guinea, eastern Australia, and New Zealand. The long-term March-April-May 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the Philippines, while below-average precipitation over northern Myanmar, eastern Malaysia, Indonesia, and western Papua New Guinea, and southern Australia. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, western Thailand, the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Based on January conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely March-April-May (MAM) 2026 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble