Global Crop Monitor
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No. 46: Published August 6th 2026
Conditions as of July 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs, including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of July remain generally positive for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, conditions are generally favourable, despite poor conditions in Europe and the United States. For maize, global conditions are generally favourable; however, hot and dry weather has negatively impacted parts of Europe, India, East Africa, and Southeast Asia. For rice, overall conditions are favourable; however, dryness is a concern in India and in Southeast Asia. For soybeans, conditions are mostly favourable in the Northern Hemisphere. The remaining crops are detailed in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
El Niño conditions are present. This will most likely be a very strong event (81% chance), ranking among the strongest since 1950. El Niño conditions are forecast through April 2027. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast for September through December 2026, with a strong event possible.
During late July through early August 2026, abnormally hot temperatures are forecast in agricultural areas of the western, central and southeastern United States, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, northern Colombia, central Brazil, southern and central Europe, the Sahel region, East Africa, Yemen, southern and northern India, Pakistan, central Asia, northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula, southern Japan, central Myanmar, central Indonesia, and the northern Philippines.
For further details on the Global Climate Influences and Regional Climate Outlooks section.
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In North America, winter wheat harvest continues with below-average yields due to drought in the Great Plains and along the East Coast. Spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Canada, conditions are favourable for both spring and winter wheat. The harvest has begun for winter wheat. In Europe, winter wheat is being harvested in the EU; above-average yields in Bulgaria and Romania are being offset by below-average yields in parts of western and central Europe due to recent extremely hot and dry weather. In the United Kingdom, harvesting is over halfway complete with poor yields due to a hot and dry spring. In Türkiye, winter wheat harvest continues with exceptional yields. In Ukraine, harvesting is ongoing with above-average yields away from the war front. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat harvesting is underway with above-average yields in the south. Spring wheat conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some drought concerns in parts of Siberia. In Central Asia, winter wheat harvest is nearing completion in Afghanistan. Harvesting is continuing in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Additionally, spring wheat is favourable across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. In East Asia, spring wheat in China is under favourable conditions. In Mongolia, spring wheat is under favourable conditions. In MENA, winter wheat harvesting is wrapping up in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran with mostly favourable yields. In Libya, delayed and below-average rainfall since the start of the season resulted in failed sowings and poor yields. In southern Iraq, the government’s decision to reduce the area irrigated with surface water by 50 percent has resulted in poor yields. In Sub-Saharan Africa, winter wheat is favourable in Lesotho, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In South Africa, conditions are favourable; however, dry conditions over the Western Cape since the second half of June could negatively affect crop development without additional rainfall. In Oceania, conditions in Australia are mostly favourable to exceptional; however, dryness persists in Queensland. There is a noticeable decline in total sown area expected compared to last year. In South America, sowing is wrapping up in Argentina under favourable conditions, with minor delays in the south due to excessive moisture. In Brazil, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions due to good soil moisture levels over the South region. There is a decrease in total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable. In Chile, sowing is continuing under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In South America, the harvest in Brazil of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is progressing under favourable conditions. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvest in Mexico is wrapping up for the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) while sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season) continues. Harvesting of Primera season crops is beginning in Guatemala, while crops develop in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. In Haiti, harvesting of Printemps season is ongoing as the sowing of Été season crops begins. In North America, conditions remain generally favourable in the US, despite recent hot weather. There is a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable, with good development. In Europe, recent extremely hot and dry weather in the EU has cut yields, most notably in Czechia, France, Germany, and Slovakia. In Ukraine, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some drought developing in the southern regions. In the Russian Federation, conditions are favourable. In South Asia, sowing of the Kharif crop (larger season) in India is progressing under mixed conditions due to the slow advance and reduced rainfall of this year’s Southwest Monsoon. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable for the summer maize crop. In Pakistan, sowing is continuing. In Sri Lanka, Yala season maize is under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, the summer (Kharif) season crop is under favourable conditions. In Nepal, main-season maize is under favourable conditions. In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China for both the spring-maize crop (larger season) and the summer-maize crop (smaller season). In Southeast Asia, sowing in Indonesia of the dry-season crop continues with a total sown area increase compared to last year. Harvesting of earlier sown crops begins under favourable conditions. In Malaysia, dry-season crops are under favourable conditions. The wet-season crop is favourable in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. In Thailand, wet-season maize is being negatively affected by dry weather. In East Africa, harvesting of Belg season crops has finalized in Ethiopia under poor conditions, while planting and development of main/Meher season cereals continue across the north. Along the south, failure outcomes are expected for main season crops in southern Somalia, and poor outcomes are expected across Burundi, Rwanda, northeastern Uganda, and Kenya. In West Africa, harvesting is now underway in eastern Liberia, southern Ghana, central and southern Togo, southern Benin, and Nigeria. Sowing of second-season crops is now underway in southern and northern Nigeria. Along the Sahel, planting and development of main-season crops continues in Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In East Asia, harvesting in China of early double-crop rice (smallest season) is progressing while sowing of late double-crop rice (medium season) continues. Single-season rice (largest season) is under favourable conditions. In Japan, conditions are generally favourable for early cultivation in the southwestern warm regions and for the first crop in Okinawa. In the Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable. In the DPRK, conditions are favourable. In Central & South Asia, sowing and nursery transplanting in India of the Kharif crop continues despite reduced rainfall in parts of the south, east, and northeast. In Bangladesh, the Aus crop (smallest season) develops alongside the transplanting of the Aman crop (medium season). Severe flooding has affected parts of the southeastern and northeastern regions. In Pakistan, sowing of Kharif rice is continuing. In Sri Lanka, Yala season rice is under favourable conditions. In Nepal, sowing and development of main-season rice continues. In Southeast Asia, sowing in Indonesia continues for dry-season rice, as the harvesting of earlier sown crops begins. In Malaysia, the sowing of dry-season rice is progressing as harvesting begins for earlier sown crops. In Brunei, harvesting of dry-season rice is beginning. In Viet Nam, the harvest is wrapping up for winter-spring rice (dry-season rice) in the north, while the sowing of summer-autumn rice (wet-season) continues. In the south, summer-autumn rice (wet-season rice) has been affected by prolonged hot weather and limited water availability. In Thailand, wet-season rice is under mixed conditions due to drought and reduced fertilizer availability. There is a reduction in total sown area compared to last year. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favourable conditions owing to sufficient rainfall and enough irrigation water. In Myanmar, sowing of wet-season rice is ongoing under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, wet-season rice is suffering under hot and dry weather. In Lao PDR, wet-season rice sowing is ongoing. In the Americas, the autumn-winter crop in Mexico is under favourable conditions. In the US, conditions are favourable. In Cuba, sowing and development of the main-season rice is continuing, albeit impacted by extreme fuel shortages. In Haiti, the harvest of the main-season rice is continuing. In MENA, sowing and development continues in Egypt, Iraq, and Iran under favourable conditions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are favourable along the Gulf of Guinea; however, conflict remains a factor in the Sahel areas of Mali and Nigeria. In Madagascar, conditions are favourable.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over the main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs, along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In North America, conditions remain generally favourable in the US despite the recent heat. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable, with only minor areas with surplus moisture issues. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Europe, conditions are poor in the EU, with high temperatures and dry weather reducing biomass and affecting flowering. In Ukraine, conditions are generally favourable away from the war front. However, medium-intensity soil drought is developing in the southern and southern-central regions. In the Russian Federation, conditions are favourable. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China, with crops in the vegetative to reproductive stages. In India, sowing is progressing and entering the final stages slightly behind normal due to the slow advance and reduced rainfall from this year’s Southwest Monsoon. In Africa, conditions are mostly favourable in Nigeria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
El Niño conditions are present. This will most likely be a very strong event (81% chance for October to December 2026, according to the July 2026 NOAA ENSO outlook), ranking among the strongest since 1950. El Niño conditions are forecast through April 2027 (97% chance).
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, the Sahel region, Southern Africa, India, Northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia. Thus far in the 2026 El Niño, severe rainfall deficits have developed in East Africa, Central America, India, and Southeast Asia.
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast for September through December 2026, with a strong event possible. Positive weekly IOD values from the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the event is developing. A positive IOD tends to enhance the drying influence of El Niño over Australia and the Maritime Continent and substantially increase the likelihood of a wet and intense East Africa short rains season.
The timing of wet and dry conditions based on Climate Research Unit, CHIRPS, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation (green and brown polygons), and sea surface temperature departures from average during July September (blue and red shading), related to the IOD. The regions used to define the Dipole Mode Index are outlined in black.
During late July through early August 2026, abnormally hot temperatures are forecast in agricultural areas of the western, central and southeastern United States, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, northern Colombia, central Brazil, southern and central Europe, the Sahel region, East Africa, Yemen, southern and northern India, Pakistan, central Asia, northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula, southern Japan, central Myanmar, central Indonesia, and the northern Philippines.
CHC AgriHeat Forecast for July 30 to August 13, 2026. Forecast 15-day average maximum temperatures are shown where they will be abnormally hot (Tmax > 80th percentile and > 30 C) and in active crop-growing areas. Areas with forecasted below-average rainfall for this period are also identified. Based on a 15-day CHIRTS-GEFS forecast from June 26, 2026. From UCSB Climate Hazards Center. Map source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Regional Outlooks
Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-term (3 months) forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures and the current El Niño and the developing positive IOD conditions.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the western US, while below-average precipitation is likely over central and western Canada and the Midwest and southern US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the Canadian Prairies and the western and southeast US, while temperatures are likely to be below-average over eastern Canada and the northeastern US. The long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over the western US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region, with the highest likelihood over the western and eastern US and western Canada. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the USA.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, western Nicaragua, western Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Mexico, southern Cuba, southern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. The long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over northwestern Mexico, while likely below-average precipitation over the rest of the region. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 August 2026, issued on 31 July 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central and southeastern Brazil, eastern Bolivia, eastern Paraguay, northern Chile, and southern Argentina, while below-average precipitation is likely over western Colombia, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and northeastern Brazil, southeastern Argentina, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, western and southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northern Chile, southern Guyana, southern Suriname, and most of Brazil, while below-average over Paraguay, Uruguay, southern Brazil, and Argentina. The long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Ecuador, central and southeastern Brazil, eastern Paraguay, central and northern Chile, and southern and western Argentina, while below-average precipitation over western Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern Brazil, Peru, and southern Chile. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region except for western Paraguay, Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, where there is only a leaning towards above-average temperatures.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Ireland, the western United Kingdom, northern Spain, France, Belgium, Germany, southern Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, central Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, Greece, and the southern and eastern Russian Federation. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Ireland, the southern United Kingdom, France, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, southern Germany, central Italy, Austria, Hungary, Romania, western Ukraine, Croatia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the southern and eastern Russian Federation. The long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over Italy, the Balkans, Greece, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over northern Germany, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. During the same period, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region. For additional details, see the CM4AMIS regional outlook for Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 August 2026, issued on 31 July 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation over Yemen and Oman. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for Yemen, western Morocco, and northern Algeria. The long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over most of the region, with a higher likelihood over northern Syria, Iraq, Iran, and northeastern Saudi Arabia, while likely below-average precipitation over Yemen. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for western Morocco.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southeastern Madagascar, while below-average precipitation is likely over western Mauritania, Senegal, eastern Mali, southern Sierra Leone, Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, central Niger, southwestern Nigeria, central Chad, central Sudan, southeastern South Sudan, Eritrea, southwestern and northeastern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, the central and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, the central Republic of the Congo, southern Gabon, northern Angola, and northeastern Mozambique. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, and South Africa. For the long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over southeastern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, and Namibia, while precipitation is likely to be below-average over western Senegal, Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the southern Republic of the Congo, the western Democratic of the Congo, northwestern Angola, southern Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, and western Kenya. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for northwestern Namibia. For additional details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa.
Figure 3: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely August-September-October (ASO) 2026 rainfall tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Kazakhstan, northern Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, and central eastern Afghanistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. The long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the entire region. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for northern Kazakhstan.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Pakistan, western and southern India, and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Pakistan, northern and eastern India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and western Sri Lanka. The long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northcentral Mongolia, the eastern Russian Federation, and southwestern and southern China, while below-average precipitation is likely over central and northwestern China and the Republic of Korea. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for central China and northern Japan. The long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over central Japan and northern China. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region except for west-central China.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southeastern Australia, while below-average precipitation is likely over southern Myanmar, central Cambodia, the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northeastern and southwestern Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Myanmar, northern Lao PDR, northern Thailand, northern and central Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, eastern Australia, and southern New Zealand, while below-average temperatures are likely over northern and western Australia. The long-term August-September-October 2026 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern New Zealand, while likely below-average precipitation over northern and southern Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, southwestern and eastern Australia, and northern New Zealand. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for southern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia. For additional details, see the CM4EW or the CM4AMIS regional outlook for Southeast Asia.
Figure 4: Based on May conditions, a probability forecast for the most likely August-September-October (ASO) 2026 temperature tercile. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble